433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[gorckat]

Never said it was

[Pie_is_good]

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

I'm going to try and remake my case of exception to this post - I don't think I explained my problems with it well (read: at all), so I didn't really get the answers I was looking for. The whole thing reeks of

safeness

Problem 1:

It's way too simplistic. I think it's fairly obvious that {Flea, OTM, Pie} have different views on the game than {Das, PJ, pete}. It's unrealistic, though, to expect that the remaining scum will all have the exact same viewpoint in every issue in the game. Gorc's demonstrated high-enough level analysis to know this, I believe.

Problem 2:

There's no room for error. He listed everyone in the game besides himself as "maybe scum." Whoopy doo. He later started favoring the {flea, Pie, OTM} side as scum, but not without first sandbagging himself by claiming "a touch of OMGUS."

OTM's refused to be convinced that I'm not scum.

Do you believe this is scummy? If so, why?

I leave the door open to the chance flea is and he isn't (<10% in my mind).

Really? I've probably never been more than 50% sure of someone as scum in my career. This seems like an odd statement overall - why so sure, and why broadcast to the town exactly how sure you are?

Would you like some syrup for your waffles? Color me stubborn or call it OMGUS, but that seems like too many qualifiers and is weaker than an earlier statement of the same thing.

Analogy time:
I offer you a "game" where we flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you give me $2. If it comes up tails, I give you $1000.

You can't be sure that you're going to win money, but you can be damn sure that it's a good deal to make. Same thing goes here. I'm nowhere near

sure

that you're scum, but I'm pretty sure you're the town's best bet.

[gorckat]

Real quick, just passing through again

@Problem 1: Can Occam's razor be applied here? I'm not sure this is a case of the fewest things to make something true (I know I'm phrasing that badly, but I think I'm getting the gist across), but it seems that the simplest way to look at the game is: these people on this side, these on that and build from there.

@Problem 2: Sure- I know I'm town and given I've been fairly active (for this game's standards, at least), any rope to hang me with should be out there. The only people running with it now are 2 people I think are scum. (Again qualifying that pj hasn't said where he stands since things stalled after his unvote).

Do you believe this is scummy? If so, why?

Not normally. I think if he was town, the refusal for others to get on board would give him pause.

I've probably never been more than 50% sure of someone as scum in my career.

I'm nowhere near sure that you're scum, but I'm pretty sure you're the town's best bet.

Am I a better choice than a dice decided vote right now? Assuming kilm is cleared and you left yourself out, the dice would have ~17% chance of picking me. Are you at 25%? 40%? How much more certain of me than a random vote are you?

Maybe the broadcasting of the percentage was a poor choice, and maybe I've skewed it too high, but what I wanted to convey was the slim chance I think he has of being town.

[Pie_is_good]

1) No, it can't. You have correctly grouped the game into the two polarized viewpoints, and then go on to conclude that one group is scum and the other isn't.

There is no bearing for that conclusion.

2) I think you misunderstood my point. I'm accusing you of fence-sitting while the rest of us our scumhunting. If you're not scum, people can turn around and accuse me of being very, very wrong - but I'm willing to take that risk if it helps find scum. What risks are

you

taking?

re: OTM

a) There wasn't a definitive answer in there. Is he scummy or isn't he? b) Has the refusal for others to get on board the fleawagon given you pause?

re: Percentages

I dunno, it's hard to put a number on these things. I'll put you at 40%. You are a much, much safer bet than the dice (obviously, or I'd be voting someone else).

Also, my question as to why you freely gave out your percentage was directed at figuring out why you felt the need for the town to know your personal chances.

Also, can we get some third (fourth, a little) opinions in here?

[Thestatusquo]

CreamPuffEater replaces Kilm.

He promised he will read the game this weekend.

[creampuffeater]

Yes, sorry for the wait till weekend, but school will not give me tomorrow night to read this with a essay due, and studying for a test. This post is just a Hi, Shea isnt a liar post, and a HI PIE + PJ! *bites*

[gorckat]

How about a scum list instead of groupings?

<scummy>
flea
OTM
<slightly scummy>
pie
<nuetral>
pete
<seems town>
Das
pj
<cleared due to lack of counter claim>
kilm

Breaking the list out this way, it does seem to allow more room for error. I concede the weakness of my groups. I stand by my opinions on who's scummy.

[pete d]

gorckat: out of curiosity, why have you placed pie as "slightly scummy" (instead of, say, neutral)?

[gorckat]

@pete: This line:

Scum may begin enjoying their last week of the game.

Doesn't sit well- the last person I saw say that replacing into a game was scum. (Very minor point)

Its been mostly of a gut feeling. He's been voting me for ages and hasn't seemed very convicted.

Recently:

I'm getting the feeling that OTM (correctly, imho) suspected Gorkcat for Macro reasons, then got stuck at a point where

he was so sure of Gorkcat's guilt (correctly, imho)

that he read every little thing Gork said as scummy.

I've probably never been more than 50% sure of someone as scum in my career.

I dunno, it's hard to put a number on these things. I'll put you at 40%. You are a much, much safer bet than the dice (obviously, or I'd be voting someone else).

He says OTM is correct to be certain I'm scum, but can't be certain himself. Hedging, again.

@pie: The trend you said was in my "scum game"...was it in

both

games I was scum? Was it in any of my games as town?

[creampuffeater]

Ok, well I have finished my reread (though I skimmed over the last 5 pages or so), and WOW this game began crazy, stalled, got exciting, then got boring. Heres what I thought

Gorckat: I was suspicious of you a lot, I dont know what to think now though. I would am going to put you at leaning scum.

OTM: The people before you werent great, but I think you are acting protown, I am going to put leaning town here

Pete d: I have no clue what my opinion is here, I might need a reread for this one

Creampuffeater: Well, I am going to put myself as town here, not only because I am, but of all the evidence layed out with lots of kills, and I am the only no scum killer claimed.

Pie: I think you have played well, and will put leaning town here

SSF: This is interesting, in the last few pages, ssf seems a bit more townish, but in the pages before that his play seems to be lurking/condescending. I will put leaning scum here aswell

PJ: I thought Nanooks play was very scummy, but since I have never found you scummy, you wiped away most of that. However, I do not want to forget the people before you, and so I have no read on you.

dasq: Again, I have no read, but as a neutral, I will probably be expecting a bit more out of you to get you leaning town, than it will for PJ.

I hate evidence

[Off the Mark]

So, you going to vote? You seem to think Gorckat and SSF are the scummiest. Do you think Gorck is bussing SSF? Who would you rather vote for?

[petroleumjelly]

Okay – everybody should be caught up now. And I just noticed Day Two has lasted over three months – we seriously need to get a move on. I just reread pages 30-39; I decided I'm going to choose between voting SSF and gorkcat; I seriously do not see a scenario where both of them are town (since this would mean town includes CPE, myself, gorkcat, and SSF; and therefore scum would be Dasquain, OTM, pete d, and Pie, which is grouping I cannot really see

whatsoever

). Therefore, I think

at least

one of them is scum. In addition, I have found each of them individually scummy while I did my initial reads of the game, so with any luck they're both scum and I'm agonizing myself over nothing.

There approximately two players (besides CPE) who I am

leaning

town on, and neither of them are SSF or gorkcat. I don't think it's worthwhile to paint targets on people's backs at this point, however (even though my feelings are probably pretty obvious from reading my posts).

My own Post 766 looks pretty spot-on after reading it now. I'm interested that gorkcat voted for SSF a few posts afterwards (in Post 770), then goes to vote for OTM and when that goes nowhere back to SSF. This slightly suggests that gorkcat/OTM are not scum together (since OTM seemed to be an attempt "shift" wagons more than distancing).

I think the most telling posts are SSF's responses to me and Dasquain in Post 856, Post 862, Post 889, Post 891, Post 894. He is way to free to call things "false dilemmas" or a "misrepresentation" (FTW!). All of his comments about Day One pretty much don't pertain to anything that matters (i.e. deciding who to lynch today). He uses "apathy" as an explanation for not posting. I also think he's been avoiding the thread in general, and in particular, avoiding taking firm stances (so that he cannot be called out on them, I would suppose).

Vote: somethingstrangeflea

. I'll change my vote back to gorkcat if necessary (there's really nothing making me think he is town), but I think I prefer the SSF lynch out of the two of them.

Also, I think now is a good time to reiterate:

Scums

, you should try to kill other scum tonight, or you will surely lose. Mafia can't keep SK alive, and SK can't keep mafia alive. Same diff. if there are two Mafias; if Mafia-A gets knocked down to 1 player against Mafia-B consisting of 2 players, you're a goner either by lynch, nightkill, or endgaming.

[Dasquian]

And I just noticed Day Two has lasted over three months – we seriously need to get a move on.

QFT.

creampuffeater, welcome to the game. You're happy to vote either gorckat or ssf, and by voting ssf you could end the day. There's been a

lot

of discussion today and if there's more to be had, we should have it, but if not, I think everyone will be happy to move on. Yes, I want to see ssf lynched here so I am nowhere close to impartial, nor pretending to be, but that's also in line with wanting to see the game progress.

[Off the Mark]

Bah, well, I guess I hope I am wrong then.

[Off the Mark]

Yes, I want to see ssf lynched here so I am nowhere close to impartial, nor pretending to be, but that's also in line with wanting to see the game progress.

You sure are careful to tiptoe around your motivations here. It's like you're saying, "I know this seems scummy, but I'm not being scummy, I have valid reasons, honest I do!!" More evidence that you are scum to me.

[Off the Mark]

If we lynch the SK, and Mafia kills a townie, we lose tonight. Just want to make sure that is clear to the town. It is not good enough to lynch "a scum" we need to lynch mafia. I just don't see how SSF is connected to anyone else at this point, but I can see him coming up SK.

[creampuffeater]

I just entered the game, and do not plan to be a rosso and hammah right away. Although, I do find SFF scummy, I do not plan to vote yet.

[Off the Mark]

Ok, well I have finished my reread (though I skimmed over the last 5 pages or so), and WOW this game began crazy, stalled, got exciting, then got boring. Heres what I thought

Please read the last 5 pages more carefully. I know it seems boring because opinions aren't changing a lot in there, but that's where the three amigos have really stood out to me as an obvious scum trio. I think I make some decent arguments in there, that have unfortunately been mostly ignored since most of the players still active in this game are scum IMO.

[Dasquian]

Yes, but you stopped accepting the possibility of ever making a mistake the moment you did a u-turn on ssf and voted gorckat

creampuffeater: I can understand you don't want to hammer right off the bat, but if you're waiting for more discussion to unfold, I think everyone's said everything they're going to say. Me and OTM can start another big pissing match if that would help, but I doubt it would.

[somestrangeflea]

creampuffeater: I can understand you don't want to hammer right off the bat, but if you're waiting for more discussion to unfold, I think everyone's said everything they're going to say. Me and OTM can start another big pissing match if that would help, but I doubt it would.

I'm not a fan of cutting short discussion because the day's lasted too long, but I'm also not a fan of trying to "force" discussion where there clearly isn't any.

If there's more discussion to come, let it come.

[gorckat]

^Infinitied.

[Off the Mark]

SSF - you are not voting for anyone, correct? Do you think that is a pro-town move at this point? I don't like fence sitters.

[creampuffeater]

he will never get the change MUWHAHA. Read the last few pages better, and ya... DIE SCUM DIE.

Vote SSF

[Thestatusquo]

I believe that is a lynch. You may continue to talk while I tabulate the votes.

[Off the Mark]

Well, like I said, I hope I'm wrong. That "muahahaha" was rather ominous.