Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[Kinetic]

Well, this is what I feel right now:

I am pretty sure (50/50) that TCS is scum, but I would like to wait at least until tomorrow to lynch him. I think there are better targets right now.

MBL and Jack are the highest on my lists of scum. I am voting MBL, and I will vote Jack should his lynch be the play for the day.

[Jack]

I have ~3 books to read by monday for an exam. Will post afters.

[Kinetic]

I feel your pain Jack. Just had to read two books and watch ~9 hours of lectures >>

[Yosarian2]

Kinetic, could you explain why you're suspicious of Jack?

[Shteven]

I'd recommend voting TCS and being willing to shift to Jack. I have a good feeling about this one Plus, you've got two votes there already.

[BillyTwilight]

I've been trying to figure out what the most logical scum-pursuit is right now. I feel that we have 1 shot at the SK at this point, before we have to almost exclusively look for remaining mafia. If we lynch town today we can go at the SK one more time (assuming that no mafia are NK'd), but then we'd have to rely on the SK killing mafia or not submitting a kill to get through the game. If we miss today then we are very, very close to LyLO and we have to pretty much ignore the SK until we finish the mafia.

This really, really bothers me, because I've already made an argument that MBL needs to be lynched before we get into an obvious LyLO situation with only the SK left. If we don't lynch MBL today then we might be heading for exactly that situation. However, I really don't feel that MBL is scum at this point, so I'm in kind of a bind.

I think I'd prefer a TCS or Jack lynch to MBL, right now; but I think we need to make a decision regarding MBL now. If we leave him in the game we need to decide if we are going to let the WIFOM case against him determine wither or not we lynch him in LyLO. (Sorry, Glork, I really feel the case against MBL comes down to him mentioning the SK and the SK's targets a lot the first 2 days. This could be him trying to set up a WIFOM defense and risk being NKed by the mafia throughout the game or, perhaps even more easily, the SK taking advantage of MBL's constant talk about the SK to set up a pretty good frame job - the latter would be pretty standard play for an SK. I'm not ready to lynch him on a metagame read; I much prefer more in-game evidence to meta reads anyway.)

I need a more careful reread of TCS and Jack, and maybe inHim, at this point, but they much more closely fit the typical profile for a SK than MBL; remaining relatively quiet and trying to survive till endgame. I began to become very suspicious of Jack when he claimed to be sure that MBL was the SK but still wanted a lynch of Kinetic. I don't think that he could really make the argument that leaving the SK in the game and thus the potential for 2 kills each night was a good idea, and if he was convinced that MBL was the SK then he should have been voting him. His insistence on Kinetic posting his notes and then doing nothing with them makes me feel he was fishing for something else to hang Kinetic with. I'll do a more careful analysis and post later.

[Shteven]

Just to clarify slightly, I agree with the advice I gave Kinetic. I hope he'll join me on TCS, but in the end, I'd be willing to switch to jack if needed.

I believe that Glork/MBL mean well, but their protracted arguments are simply distracting the town. There are better targets.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

The one time I was SK I attempted to lead lynches. Just for the record.

[Rogueben]

WOW!! That's all I can say guys. I have spent almost all my free time over the last week reading through this monster of a game. It is quite late now so I will post a more detailed post tomorrow.

In no particular order.

MBL - I'm not sure about you. I agree that there is quite a lot of pro-town tells when isolated, but after my read through I have suspicions of you being the SK. The first thing to tip me off was definitely the "I'm SO proud of the SK". The other cases laid out by Glork and others also have some relevant points (I don't like the meta-game analysis though).

Glork - I agree with MBL. You need to be a little less pigheaded. Instead of popping back in and saying MBL is the SK I think that you should definitely continue arguments on other scummy players, eg Shteven who you were convinced about for 3 days but you've gone quite now.

TCS - Your play has been quite random and hard to analyse. Sometimes you are lurky and then at other times you come out with arguments (though a lot of the time with little reasoning). I think that you seem pro-town though. Perhaps some more concrete arguments would be helpful.

Yosarian - Again some small scumtells but I think generally pretty pro-town. I think that some of the day 2 arguments were a bit off-topic and distracting but since the start of day 3 that has stopped.

Billy Twilight - Although you've spent much of the game attacking my predecessor (even though your suspicions seem to have been relieved, at least partially) I find that you are very quite pro-town. Most of the arguments that you make are well thought out and logical. Sometimes I think that your lurk and then post wall of text style of play is a little frustrating though.

CTD - I'm going to wait to hear more from you. Coron didn't post much and AlyG didn't post anything as far as I recall (maybe a hi everyone post). inHim struck as slightly erratic as well but generally a pro-town tone.

Kinetic - I'm not so convinced about you. BM played strange (as BM often does) but I agree there was a town vibe from him. However you have seen a little opportunistic and also a bit erratic. I think that the argument that BT made about your notes was pretty spot on though. So in short jury is still out on you.

Jack - I don't like the way you come in and post 1 or 2 lines and then disappear again. Your votes often have little reason sited behind them as well. Despite this I agree with most people that you seem pro-town, I would just like to see a little more content in some of your posts, once your done with the exam.

Shteven - I don't like a lot of your arguments, I found them hard to follow and also some flawed logic (and sometimes flawed math). I think that it is quite possible that you are scum, though not definite (and could not see Glork's definite scum-tells on day 1/2).

Anyway guys those are my initial impressions. I am going to go to sleep now as I have spent 9-10 hours reading this thread since Saturday.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thanks for the effort, Rogueben, this game needs the infusion of energy you bring.

I am concerned by the fact that you find pretty much everyone pro-town, but then again I've been telling myself that at LEAST one scum is doing a bang-up job of looking pro-town this game. When you have a chance for a second read or for your thoughts to settle, can you please make an ordered list of suspicions? Two lists, if you think giving separate mafia and SK lists would be productive.

Yos, every time I see you post in another game thread and skip over this one, I get the willies. Do you really have nothing to say or are you waiting to see how the tide shifts? There have been several posts by you where you've gauged public opinion, so to speak, and I'd be more likely to see you as town if you didn't seem to be trying to game the situation to some extent.

[Rogueben]

A list of my suspicions would be:

Mafia:
Shteven
Kinetic
TCS
CTD
Jack
Yosarian
Billy
MBL
Glork

SK:
MBL
TCS
CTD
Jack
Shteven
Billy
Yosarian
Kinetic
Glork

I thoroughly believe Glork to be Pro-town, I still believe that he should make some more arguments against others today (he has done this in the past).
I hope this answers your questions MBL. These lists do have reasons behind them which I will post later today.

[Shteven]

Well I'm certainly suprised to see myself at the top of the list for mafia. You citied some general weakness overall, which I can't really say much about. But the claim that I've used flawed logic, I'd like to hear more about. I don't think I've used any, of course I can't claim to be perfect either.

If it's about the burden of proficiency stuff, that is NOT a logical error. The logical error would be to claim that if a normally skilled scum hunter is performing below normal accuracy that they are then scum. That would be an error. What is not an error is to say that if a skilled scum hunter is performing below normal accuracy that it increases their chances of being scum. The problem with this is that they have to be very good and even when they are very good, it's a very small boost to their chances of being scum. In the end, it's technically valid, it's just not very useful. Glork, mind you, has a vested interest in arguing against this, regardless of his alignment in this game, so please keep that in mind. I could go into more detail if you want, this is the shorthand version, I'm not showing all the steps (or any of them, really). Certain things could mess that up, such as intentionally throwing games when you're town, or extreme busing as mafia, but I assume that good players won't throw games as town, as that would be rather horrible. And busing two or three mafia would similarly be counterproductive. Maybe two in some cases...

And if this wasn't the flawed logic you mentioned, or if there's another case, please mention it.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, every time I see you post in another game thread and skip over this one, I get the willies. Do you really have nothing to say or are you waiting to see how the tide shifts? There have been several posts by you where you've gauged public opinion, so to speak, and I'd be more likely to see you as town if you didn't seem to be trying to game the situation to some extent.

(shrug) Well, not much has changed, excpet that your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously; just got a bad vibe from the way you were defending yourself there.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Anyone else starting to get a bad feeling about Yos2? I'm pretty sure his posting style in this game is consistent with others in which he has been mafia. Maybe I'm just imagining things.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

[Rogueben]

Investigated innocent could still be the SK or the Godfather. So it is still quite plausible that he is scum. 2/3 of the scum left are investigation immune which makes Glork's results only marginally useful.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos's last month of play:

* Top three suspects: inHim, Shteven, Yogurt
* "I basically consider Yogurt a better then random lynch but not much more"
* Critiques Glork's "Guardian is SK" idea
* Attacks Shteven for attacking TCS
* Yells at Manaspryte, votes Guardian for lying
* Thinks Glork's town cause Manaspryte protected, possible slip
* Has a genuine sounding debate with Glork, they're not aligned
* No scum vibe from MBL, neutral and "annoyed" by TCS, Twilight "agreeable"
* Sounds genuine talking about scum busing scum
D4:
* FOSes MBL for burden of proficiency (after finding MBL protown the previous day) note: he's sheeping on Glork
* Very defensive about the Guardian lynch he aggressively pushed
* "Oh? How have you played a "very protown game" so far? Please clarify."
(note: he felt this way 10 days ago, why has he changed his mind all the sudden?)
* Four consecutive posts focused on MBL
* Is sick, posting in a daze, sees inHim as unlikely SK for being gone and replaced during NK phase. (note: good spot)
* "MBL: High chance of being the SK. I'll have to read over what he did during the sarc thing yesterday before I come to any conclusion about him being mafia are." (note: he thought I was unlikely mafia two days earlier so this is pure sheepage on Glork)
* sees Jack, Glork as likely town, Yogurt as uncertain
* sees TCS, Kinetic as possible scum and good lynches
* no read on Billy, Shteven
* sees Yogurt, Kinetic as likely goon
* responds to accusation of lurking: "Well, not much has changed, excpet that your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously" (note: o rly? well, you're not voting for me so wtf are you doing)

Yos is the only player who hasn't voted today. He didn't find me scummy at all start of day, then Glork did a little song and dance and Yos tested the waters, saying that if "we think MBL bused Sarc, it'd be ok to vote him today". This, right after saying he DIDN'T think MBL bused Sarc.

Yos, you really need to make up your own mind here. You need to develop a read on TCS and Billy. You need to make up your mind on Yogurt. You need to explain why your top three suspects from yesterday are fairly different from your top three suspects today:

* Yesterday, Steven #2, today you have no read at all on him
* Yesterday inHim #1, today Mole likely godfather
* Yesterday Yogurt #3 today yogurt likely goon
* Yesterday MBL likely town, today MBL likely SK

You've asked nearly no questions of your top suspects from yesterday and today, you more seem to be laying back waiting for someone to get strung up.

If you're town, ask Rougeben something, ask CTD something, ask Shteven something, ask Billy something, ask Kinetic something, ask TCS something. These are the people you claim to suspect of being scum.

Why are you so passive, Yos?

[Yosarian2]

* Thinks Glork's town cause Manaspryte protected, possible slip

Um...how the hell is that a "possible slip"? The doc claimed he protected Glork, on a night where there was a missing scum kill. How does the not increase the odds of Glork being town?

* FOSes MBL for burden of proficiency (after finding MBL protown the previous day) note: he's sheeping on Glork

Yes, that "burden of proficency" argument you used to try to undermine Glork in response to him attacking you was quite scummy.

* Very defensive about the Guardian lynch he aggressively pushed

Very defensive? I've got nothing to be defensive about. Guardian lied, and the explinations he gave didn't fit with his actions. I'd do it again, no question.

* "Oh? How have you played a "very protown game" so far? Please clarify."
(note: he felt this way 10 days ago, why has he changed his mind all the sudden?)[/quote

Eh? You used that as your defense, that you've played a "very protown game". I asked you to clarify. Not sure what you mean about me changing my mind.

* Four consecutive posts focused on MBL
* Is sick, posting in a daze, sees inHim as unlikely SK for being gone and replaced during NK phase. (note: good spot)
* "MBL: High chance of being the SK. I'll have to read over what he did during the sarc thing yesterday before I come to any conclusion about him being mafia are." (note: he thought I was unlikely mafia two days earlier so this is pure sheepage on Glork)

You know, I never "sheep" Glork, or anyone else. I've suspected you of being the SK since your wierd "we don't really want to lynch the SK because he'll kill scum for us" argument on day 1.

[qute]
* sees Jack, Glork as likely town, Yogurt as uncertain
* sees TCS, Kinetic as possible scum and good lynches
* no read on Billy, Shteven
* sees Yogurt, Kinetic as likely goon

Yes, true.

* responds to accusation of lurking: "Well, not much has changed, excpet that your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously" (note: o rly? well, you're not voting for me so wtf are you doing)

I said earlier that I would rather lynch someone today who could be Godfather, Goon, or SK, and that while you're a good Sk suspect that dosn't mean you're necessaraly the lynch for today. Same reason I'm not voting for InHim's replacement even though he seems like a good Godfather suspect. However, yes, that last argument with Glork did make you look more SK-ish, I explained that at the time,and as the odds of you being the SK increase the reasons to not vote you are becoming less important.

Yos is the only player who hasn't voted today. He didn't find me scummy at all start of day

What? Where the hell do you get that idea? I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

, then Glork did a little song and dance and Yos tested the waters, saying that if "we think MBL bused Sarc, it'd be ok to vote him today".

This, right after saying he DIDN'T think MBL bused Sarc.

Ok, now you're misrepresenting me.

In response to Kinetic's post, I mentioned that we probably don't want to lynch someone if we have good reason to think they're not mafia, even if they're a likely SK suspect. I did not say that I don't think you bussed Sarc, I said that *IF* we didn't think you bussed sarc, you might not be a good lynch today. Glork was suggesting that he did think you could be a scum bussed Sarc, and yes, if he could make a case for that being likely, that would definatly make you a good lynch today, instead of a so-so lynch.

By the way, nice scummy little attempt to undermine me by repeating that crappy "Yos was testing the waters" BS. I've simply said what I thought; that's not "testing the waters" at all.

Why are you so passive, Yos?

Meh. I guess I'm a bit torn. Logically, the play for today is probably either Kinetic or TCS or perhaps Yogurt,one of the people who could be any of the three scum roles; however, my gut's telling me that the most suspicious people are you and InHim's replacements. So yeah, I haven't made up my mind about who to vote for. At this point, I'm leaning towards just saying screw the logic and voting you, because I'm having a harder and harder time seeing you as pro-town, but eh, it'd be a high-risk play.

[Yosarian2]

I just realized that you'll probably (intentionally?) misinterpret that last sentance, so let me spell it out for you befor that happens. The "safe" play is to get rid of one of the people who could be any of the scum roles, because if we lynch you and it turns out I'm wrong and you're townie, we have less information tommorow then if we were to eliminate one of the possible goons and they turn out to be townie.

[Shteven]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

Is it just me, or does TCS still believe that being investigated innocent is a complete get out of jail free card even though 2/3 scum aren't "guilty"?

Yosarian is guilty of this as well, but at least he backed it up with a decent reason, that killing a non-confirmed will narrow down the pool of possible goons. This is true, but I don't feel that this is a very good strategy, and will probably be less accurate than regular hunting.

I think TCS especially, but also Yos, are clinging to their results a bit too desperately.

[Shteven]

I don't think anyone's voted in the past page; I may have missed some. But in any case, since the last vote count, we have 5 people voting, and 5 people not voting. Is there any reason why so many people are unsure? I'd like to see the five people vote; anyone is fine. We're split enough that I doubt we'd get a lynch (probably not even -2), but I'd like to see where everyone's finger is truly pointing.

[MrBuddyLee]

I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

Have you made that case before today? Why not? And obviously scum disagree with you or else they'd have taken a shot at me by now. (Did they think Glork was SK or cop when they shot at him?) In fact, scum would probably rather lynch the SK than me right now, which is one reason why my wagon's not rocketing into the stratosphere. (Unless scum's also under heavy heat in which case they'd probably take me as a last resort.) If I'm the obvious SK, maybe you should look back and see who tried to get me lynched D1-D3--they're possible mafiates. The SK would have probably enjoyed the cover I provided them, as evidenced by the fact they've been setting me up unsubtly with their nightkills.

I'm astounded that a few of you people really think an SK would play the way I have from D1. It's similar to the fact that no one bothered to ask why Guardian would RETRACT his doc claim yesterday instead of riding it out overnight... the easy answer is that he would have stuck with the claim as scum. The reason I took fire from D1 like this is because I figured it'd draw a scum kill, and if not, no townie would be dense enough to think that conversing openly with and complimenting the SK would be a survivalist strategy.

The doc claimed he protected Glork, on a night where there was a missing scum kill. How does the not increase the odds of Glork being town?

It eliminates the possibility that Glork's mafia. It doesn't significantly change the possibility that he's the SK. But for whatever reason you seem to have essentially cleared Glork as SK. Here's your reasoning:

I can't see a SK Glork doing what Glork did day 2, which was sticking his neck out to defend inHim while attacking Shteven at the same time, when they were both acting in similar ways; at the time, that made me suspect Glork a bit of possibly being Mafia, but a SK, especally one already getting some negitive attention from some quarters, would have no reason to act like that; too risky, too loud, too high profile.

So your case against me as SK is that I've been risky, loud and high profile about being the SK, and your case that Glork's NOT the SK is that he's been to risky, loud and high profile?

So sketchy.

Glork did a little song and dance and Yos tested the waters

Ok, now you're misrepresenting me.

Here are your words in context:

I agree that MBL's sarc vote makes it less likely he's mafia

MBL, please recall Face-To-Face and then tell me that you don't try to bus and then garner credit for it and/or use it to your advantage.

Minor FoS: Yos

for trying to dissuade an MBL lynch. MBL is not only likely to be the SK, but his behavior is certainly NOT indicative of him being non-mafia.

Yos, could you post some more detailed thoughts on.... well, just about everyone?

I'll have to read over what he did during the sarc thing yesterday before I come to any conclusion about him being mafia are.

Weak sauce. Appeasement. Kowtowing. You thought I was unlikely mafia and then Glork put the squeeze on you. Did you even bother to read Face to Face to see if my Sarc vote here and my CDB vote there were at all similar or did you just swallow Glork's faulty analysis whole?

Finally...

Wait...you were gone for TEN DAYS, and you were annoyed that something happened in your absense? That's absurd. There's no reason for any mafia day to ever take more then 2-3 weeks in the first place, and dragging our feet until every single person in the game has weighed in would just kill the momentum of the game and lower the amount of interest in the game, the particiatpaiton, and therefore the town's chances of winning.

This post from a week or so ago really bothered me. You guys offed Guardian in SIX DAYS. Not TEN DAYS, not TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

SIX DAYS.

Your post is apologist to the extreme and if you're town you should be ashamed of it because you were apologizing for mafia's and the SK's rush to lynch an innocent without getting everyone on the record about the decision.

fake edit:

SIX DAYS

[The Central Scrutinizer]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

Is it just me, or does TCS still believe that being investigated innocent is a complete get out of jail free card even though 2/3 scum aren't "guilty"?

Yosarian is guilty of this as well, but at least he backed it up with a decent reason, that killing a non-confirmed will narrow down the pool of possible goons. This is true, but I don't feel that this is a very good strategy, and will probably be less accurate than regular hunting.

I think TCS especially, but also Yos, are clinging to their results a bit too desperately.

I think that TCS believes it's statistically more likely that we hit scum if we go after the uninvestigated rather than start lynching investigated innocents.

That Godfathers and SKs don't

always

investigate innocent is merely another flaw in this thinking.

[MrBuddyLee]

Alignment: You are an ANTI-TOWN Mafia Member.
Flavor: ______, ________, ________, and _______ (the first being the Godfather) are the members of the Mafia. You may talk at night. Every night, the godfather (or highest ranking official left) may send in a kill.

The Godfather is investigation immune.

Win Condition: When the mafia outnumbers all other players or nothing can prevent the same.

Alignment: You are an ANTI-TOWN Serial Killer
Flavor: You have your mind and your vote. What more could you ask for? Oh yeah. A Chainsaw! You may send in a kill every night.

If you are investigated, you will come up as innocent.

Win Condition: Last Man Standing.

[Rogueben]

@Shteven. I've just had a read back over your posts and your logic seems better in isolation. I got a different feeling in my read-through, that could have been due to Glork's vehement attacks against you.

FOS: Yos and TCS

. Frankly the fact that you came investigation immune means very little about your alignment at this stage. It means that you can't be the goon but I don't think that you should be arguing that people shouldn't lynch you because you are "innocent". It seems like a scum tactic to deflect attention.