433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[gorckat]

Pete has had plenty of suspicion, Gorckat, wtf are you talking about?

Aside from you, Das had him as possible scum (haven't looked at his exact words- I think he has him as #2 after flea). No one else off the top of my head has voted him or even made a case.

The very fact that it's taken so long for ANYONE to climb on board the gorckat wagon makes me very convinced that he is indeed scum. If he were a townie, scum would have piled on by now. But since I voted, no one else has piled on. Town is being careful, and rightfully so.

Huh. Replace gorc with flea and that makes sense, too.

string/flea has been at 3 for ages. pj was on me, but pulled off once you voted (iirc- I know his vote wasn't counted on one of the vote counts). Was he distancing from me there? Oh, wait- you don't suspect him.

What odd phrasing. Totally scummy. Poor attempt at distancing there.

Because it wasn't. You don't tell someone who sits down with a PB&J sandwich that they FUBARed their ham sandwich, too, do you?

It was a distinction between my thoughts that Das is least likely scum with you and flea, followed by pete, then pj and pie. I'm pretty sure I said as much when I was laying out my possible scum splits.

[Dasquian]

I find it telling that you didn't refute my assertion that the SSF wagon is scum-driven.

Of course I didn't - it's one of those "so taken as granted that explicitly stating it is pointless and slightly scummy" things, like claiming to be pro-town. And besides that, you seem to have regressed to high school level where you're now picking apart

literally everything

gorckat or I say to "prove" your case. Your credibility has hit rock bottom, my friend.

The most generous interpretation of your actions is that, as gorckat says, you are "married to your suspicions" and now are looking for anything and everything to assemble into your patchwork-quilt-like case. The less generous (and increasingly more likely-looking) explanation is that you are scum with ssf who jumped off the bandwagon when he thought he might not have to bus him and is getting increasingly more frustrated that the gorckat wagon didn't - and in fact currently

can't

- take off.

I refer us back to posts 785/789 when you do a complete U-turn from pressing ssf hard to, apparently on a whim, changing to an "experiment" vote on gorckat which has become immoveable. Either

that

is you being flighty and non-committal, or was your attempt to do a last minute save. Either way we shouldn't put any stock in your arguments.

[Off the Mark]

Oh give me a break, here come the personal insults. It's up to the rest of the town to decide, I'm done.

Gorc - the situation is NOT the same with SSF because IMO the scum did already pile on. Since you haven't been piled on, you must be scum.

[gorckat]

Its exactly the same!

You say I'm scum, I say flea's scum
You say I haven't been lynched, I say flea hasn't been lynched
Therefore, you say I'm scum, therefore I say flea's scum

[Off the Mark]

No. People were happy enough to pile on SSF's bandwagon. The only reason he wasn't lynched is because I unvoted him. Now I think those people were scum.

No one has piled on your bandwagon. Pie voted you first a while ago, and after further analysis of the voting pattern and reactions to SSF votes, I agreed that you were most likely scum, so I climbed on your wagon. And that's where we sit. Where are the scum voters on your wagon, if you are not scum? Pie could be scum, but he would be going out on his own. You think the other scum are ignoring you? When their scumbuddy (according to your theory) SSF is about to be lynched? It really doesn't make much sense. If the scum trio were myself, Pie, and SSF, then SSF would be on your wagon already. But he is voting for who he legitimately thinks looks the scummiest to him, Dasquian, which makes sense for a townie to do.

But now I think town has to look at this evidence and figure out that we need to come to a consensus to get a lynch. I really don't care if it's Gorck or Pete, or even Dasq. I'm pretty sure I've got the game figured out. You guys sure have defended each other quite a bit. Gorck has acted scummiest, IMO, so I think he is our best bet.

[Dasquian]

Your arguments are based on faulty assumptions:

1) "Scum cannot bus each other" - you repeatedly argue/assume that if X is scum, then anyone voting X cannot be scum and so the scum voters must be easily identifiable from who's left.
2) "Scum always go for gold" - you seem to assume that when a townie is being bandwagonned, all the scum would be on the bandwagon.
3) "Scum always defend each other" - you are basing a lot off of who has stuck up for who in this game, and tracing a scum group out from one suspect to the "nearest" others.

These are all (well, the first two at least) frankly insane things to base arguments off of as it basically assumes scum are always totally obvious. In nearly every game I've seen, at least one, sometimes

all

, the bandwagons in the game have the scum split. Some defend the townie, some attack them. Some defend fellow scum, some bus them.

In the above case, you ask why, if gorckat is townie, he's not being jumped on by the scum. Well, pie (I think) already answered that earlier today. He pointed out that the best thing for the town would be for the bad guys to attempt to quicklynch a townie, so that the SK had an easy ride killing them. He's right - if scum all piled on gorckat, what are the chances one of them is going to get NKed? Pretty high, right? So that's your answer to that one - scum can't blunder into a lynch, they have to be sneaky as always, possibly more so.

You also ask why they wouldn't jump on gorckat to help scumbuddy ssf - well, first of all, it's the same answer - but even worse! If piling onto a townie is like painting a bullseye on your chest, then it's not looking good for the long-term if you're also easily traceable to sticking up for a scum buddy. For this reason, I also think scum would be

more

eager to bus each other than usual.

Although even if you reject my above arguments and think scum

would

pick gorckat over scumbuddy ssf, that makes you and pie prime candidates for exactly that behaviour.

Anyway, old ground. This day is not going to be ended by myself, OTM or gorckat, nor anyone else who has stated a firm opinion. It's hard to resist continuing the back-and-forth (as indeed I have failed to do here), but the people who will define this day are the ones who haven't come down on either side of the line or have been AWOL.

That means

they

need to post, not us.

[pete d]

Nothing is really happening. OtM, Dasq and gorckat are arguing, but its likely none of them will move their votes. kilmenator, wherever you are, you need to post or make up your mind to vote. No lynch isn't going to fly.

People were happy enough to pile on SSF's bandwagon. The only reason he wasn't lynched is because I unvoted him. Now I think those people were scum.

You seemed to be the one who "pile(d) on" a -1 vote on ssf without much consideration, given how readily you changed your vote.

Anyway, old ground. This day is not going to be ended by myself, OTM or gorckat, nor anyone else who has stated a firm opinion. It's hard to resist continuing the back-and-forth (as indeed I have failed to do here), but the people who will define this day are the ones who haven't come down on either side of the line or have been AWOL.

That means they need to post, not us.

QFT

[gorckat]

Thirded.

[somestrangeflea]

Your arguments are based on faulty assumptions:

1) "Scum cannot bus each other" - you repeatedly argue/assume that if X is scum, then anyone voting X cannot be scum and so the scum voters must be easily identifiable from who's left.
2) "Scum always go for gold" - you seem to assume that when a townie is being bandwagonned, all the scum would be on the bandwagon.
3) "Scum always defend each other" - you are basing a lot off of who has stuck up for who in this game, and tracing a scum group out from one suspect to the "nearest" others.

These are all (well, the first two at least) frankly insane things to base arguments off of as it basically assumes scum are always totally obvious. In nearly every game I've seen, at least one, sometimes all, the bandwagons in the game have the scum split. Some defend the townie, some attack them. Some defend fellow scum, some bus them.

In the above case, you ask why, if gorckat is townie, he's not being jumped on by the scum. Well, pie (I think) already answered that earlier today. He pointed out that the best thing for the town would be for the bad guys to attempt to quicklynch a townie, so that the SK had an easy ride killing them. He's right - if scum all piled on gorckat, what are the chances one of them is going to get NKed? Pretty high, right? So that's your answer to that one - scum can't blunder into a lynch, they have to be sneaky as always, possibly more so.

You also ask why they wouldn't jump on gorckat to help scumbuddy ssf - well, first of all, it's the same answer - but even worse! If piling onto a townie is like painting a bullseye on your chest, then it's not looking good for the long-term if you're also easily traceable to sticking up for a scum buddy. For this reason, I also think scum would be more eager to bus each other than usual.

Although even if you reject my above arguments and think scum would pick gorckat over scumbuddy ssf, that makes you and pie prime candidates for exactly that behaviour.

Anyway, old ground. This day is not going to be ended by myself, OTM or gorckat, nor anyone else who has stated a firm opinion. It's hard to resist continuing the back-and-forth (as indeed I have failed to do here), but the people who will define this day are the ones who haven't come down on either side of the line or have been AWOL.

That means they need to post, not us.

<3

Unvote

[Off the Mark]

Your arguments are based on faulty assumptions:

1) "Scum cannot bus each other" - you repeatedly argue/assume that if X is scum, then anyone voting X cannot be scum and so the scum voters must be easily identifiable from who's left.
2) "Scum always go for gold" - you seem to assume that when a townie is being bandwagonned, all the scum would be on the bandwagon.
3) "Scum always defend each other" - you are basing a lot off of who has stuck up for who in this game, and tracing a scum group out from one suspect to the "nearest" others.

I'm not assuming those things are absolutely true. You are discrediting my argument by creating "rules" that I am not using. (and doing a good job, btw, I hate arguing with good scum)

1) I DO think scum can bus each other, but as Pie said earlier, I think it is less likely at this point in the game.

2) I know scum don't always pile on a townie bandwagon, but I expect that SOME would.

3) And I know scum don't always defend each other, but later in the game, they are more likely to. I am not a moron, I know how to play as scum, and I know that if you followed those rules, you would be found out very quickly.

As I said before, I think you guys have been trapped on this SSF wagon and now you'd look scummy for switching tactics, so you're sticking to your guns. Normally, scum wouldn't be so obvious, but you've gotten stuck this way and now you're basically using a WIFOM argument. (your whole line of arguing here is basically "scum wouldn't be obvious like this" but that is WIFOM at its finest)

[Off the Mark]

Question for Dasquian and Pete D:

What makes you so sure that Gorckat is not scum? You have gone to great lengths to defend him. (especially Dasq)

[Off the Mark]

Just noticed this on reread. Check out this post from Gorckat:

The reason I ask is because:

I think you are too married to your suspicions

. Yes- I want enmity between you and townies because...

I think you're scum with flea

! Why make peace?

The two bolded statements make no sense together. "Married to your suspicions" is something a

townie

player does who is playing poorly. But then Gorckat says he thinks I'm

scum

! Scum can't be married to their suspicions because they don't have "suspicions". Therefore, gorckat is a liar.

I rest my case. Lynch Gorckat.

[gorckat]

I think you're unreasonably married to your "suspicions", to be brief.

Yah- never used quotes to indicate I think they're bogus. Oops.

</sarcastic animosity>

[Off the Mark]

Being married to bogus suspicions doesn't make any sense either.

[Dasquian]

Round in circles we go, but a direct question is a direct question:

I am not sure that gorckat is not scum. But, standard uncertainty aside, he seems townie to me and ssf doesn't.

[Thestatusquo]

FYI: Kilm has requested replacement, and I am working on it.

[pete d]

Question for Dasquian and Pete D:

What makes you so sure that Gorckat is not scum? You have gone to great lengths to defend him. (especially Dasq)

As for would I vote gorckat, I'm not sure, I have found him suspicious, but I can't see both gorckat and ssf being scum together, and I'm more convinced that ssf / string is the scum. So no, my vote stays on ssf.

Please point out where I have defended gorckat at all.

[Off the Mark]

Pete - that goes back to the voting pattern more than anything you've explicitly said. You didn't like my gorckat votes both times, but you voted along with me for superstring quite happily. I don't think you've come out and defended him, but looking at your voting, perhaps you should. Saying one thing and doing another is scummy.

[pete d]

Pete - that goes back to the voting pattern more than anything you've explicitly said. You didn't like my gorckat votes both times, but you voted along with me for superstring quite happily. I don't think you've come out and defended him, but looking at your voting, perhaps you should. Saying one thing and doing another is scummy.

I've already been over all of this.

[Pie_is_good]

Whoops. Sorry, guys. This completely slipped off my radar.

blah blah blah False Dilemma blah blah blah

Please explain why you chose the particular groupings that you did. I kinda have the impression that we got too hung up in the "that's a false dilemma" thing to properly analyze why gorkcat said what he did.

Why are scum any more likely to not read the thread than town? Not reading the thread thoroughly would jeopardise both alignments fairly equally, TBH.

QFT

re: Scum Bussing each other

When I said it doesn't happen as often at this stage in the game, I should have said

it's not good play as often at this stage in the game

. Think about it - bussing a partner is only worth it if (obviously) the drawbacks are outweighed by the benefits. The drawbacks are the death of a partner. The benefits are a dead townie. Given that the death of a townie helps scum more when they're closer to winning, the benefits are greater when scum is closer to winning. Scum is closer than average to winning this game. Therefore, bussing is not good play as often.

re: OTM

I'm getting the feeling that OTM (correctly, imho) suspected Gorkcat for Macro reasons, then got stuck at a point where he was so sure of Gorkcat's guilt (correctly, imho) that he read every little thing Gork said as scummy. I mean, I can see some of his points being somewhat legit, but the statements in question are so insignificant that they hardly matter.

re: Dasq

I'm getting the feel of misguided townie. Nothing has struck me as particularly scummy. He seems to be picking and choosing what to spend his analysis on, and doing it well - something that scum rarely do.

re: Gorc

I'm still pretty sure he's scum. Most of his hypotheticals have almost a forced feeling about them, like he sat down and said "I need to contribute something to look innocent" rather than genuinely giving his opinions. The nail in the coffin for me was the reread of his scum and town games - if you haven't done so, I'd reccomend taking a look at those. There was at least one obvious trend common to this game and his scum game that wasn't in his town game.

re: SSF

I dunno, his detatchment/lack of enthusiasm/sarcasm almost seems like a point in his favor, as much as I hate to admit it. In this tight of a game, I'd see scum on the chopping block caring a bit more. If he had scum partners and he was screwing over someone other than himself, for example, I think he'd care a bit more.

[Dasquian]

Interesting point about SSF - though it follows that as a townie he would also be screwing over people other than himself. Admittedly, as in that situation he wouldn't know who they are, he might be more inclined to feel detached.

[Pie_is_good]

True, Dasq. It also holds given that Kilm is being less helpful than he is. It's hard to feel obligated when you're not the worst.

[gorckat]

There was at least one obvious trend common to this game and his scum game that wasn't in his town game.

Should read games, assuming you read all the links I provided. I think at that time there were two of each. I think I have another townie game (mini 425)for your review, to see if that trend shows up again. (I'd be curious to know what the trend is, after this game [I assume you're holding it close to the vest atm] of course)

More later. I was just popping into the PC room for a book.

[gorckat]

Please explain why you chose the particular groupings that you did.

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

My 'reasons' are spread out among several posts:

This my gut and I couldn't put anything concrete in a post to explain it better than that.

(By concrete, I meant "Look at post x, y and z- tada!")

Some of the players just don't strike me as being scum together.

(OTM and Dasq, pete and OTM, flea and pete, flea and Dasq. Typical disclaimer that I could've been snowed by distancing attempts.)

Based on how felt people have been interacting

, I lean towards the pie, OTM, flea grouping.

(More affirmation of gut feelings/intuition)

I admit OTM's (and your) insistence on me as scum has drawn a bit of a line in the sand for me.

pj did a fair bit of work making his case for me, to which I responded (well, imho). iirc, his vote came off when OTM U-Turned on me (from flea/string) and hasn't come back on since, even though things are stalled and no one active has expressed a willingness to hammer me. That seems like reasonable townie caution.

OTM has latched on to his 'pattern' of me and pete. I know I'm not scum, so his saying pete and I are scum together is wrong; I admit to giving pete a bit more of a pass than might be due him. OTM's refused to be convinced that I'm not scum. I leave the door open to the chance flea is and he isn't (<10% in my mind).

I address the primary suspicion you've had of me in a few moments.

Given the divide in the debate and way people have gone at the other side is why I put pete and Das in a possible group together. They haven't outright defended me, but have gone after OTM's arguments. They could be scum together, but I think it more likely that flea and OTM are.

...why gorkcat said what he did.

Partly boredom. Things were going in circles, with those lines drawn, so I threw my thoughts out there. It did seem to get people talking, somewhat.

re: Gorc

I'm still

pretty sure

he's scum.

Most

of his hypotheticals have

almost

a forced feeling about them, like he sat down and said "I need to contribute something to look innocent" rather than genuinely giving his opinions.

Would you like some syrup for your waffles? Color me stubborn or call it OMGUS, but that seems like too many qualifiers and is weaker than an earlier statement of the same thing.

Anything concrete to support your vote? 50 'forced' posts since August 4th doesn't seem like much.

[somestrangeflea]

Based on how felt people have been interacting, I lean towards the pie, OTM, flea grouping. (More affirmation of gut feelings/intuition)

What you've done here is you've just listed me and anyone who has defended me. That's it. That's hardly an in depth analysis of interactions now is it!?