California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:56 am

Post by Mr. Grey »

Deadline:
Approximately 6.5 hours from this post.

Vote Count:
11 to lynch.

LoudmouthLee: 7 (Cubsfan4ever, Battle Mage/jeep, Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, IH/Oman, Mgm, Skruffs, xyzzy)
Cubsfan4ever: 5 (Dragon Phoenix, foolinc, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha)
Adele: 1 (Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels)
Dragon Phoenix: 1 (Adele)
foolinc: 1 (Tamuz/Thestatusquo)
IH/Oman: 1 (logicticus)
Skruffs: 1 (VitaminR)
xyzzy: 1 (Zindaras)

Current Condorcet Winner:
Cubsfan4ever

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

Important Note:
When compiling Condorcet lists, I am treating unvotes as a complete reset of the list. If you wish to retain the same (or similar) list when unvoting or changing your vote, please post another copy of the list.

Please double-check your lists for errors, particularly regarding replacements. If a player occurs more than once on a list, only the first listing is accepted. If a player does not occur on a list, that player is put at the end of the list.
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:58 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Resposted from 530 since it has become painfully obvious that we have skimmers playing this game.

Well, since I cannot get blood from a stone:

Name: Mercédès
Role Type: Searching Townie


If you read the damn book, you'll be able to guess who I am searching for. Now, unvote me before you mislynch me.

If you know who you are, then shush your mouth. No reason for two power roles to die tonight.
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"LML returns, plays one game, wins a Scummie, then leaves again!" - Primate
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:13 am

Post by Gaspar »

LoudmouthLee wrote:(For all intents and purposes, since we are truly dealing with two different players, I hereby request the following:

Gaspar: Please state at the beginning of each of your posts who it is we're talking to.

Players: If you are directing a question or comment at Gaspar, please state which head of the twoheaded monster you are asking.. for instance: Glorkspar or Primspar


@Primspar: What makes you think that Cubs is innocent? You seem to have a level of feeling on this that makes me uncomfortable.
Glorkspar here, though I can answer your request to Primspar because this is actually something that we had talked about over the weekend.

As Prim pointed out in his notes, Skruffs' play seems weird to those who aren't familiar with his posting/playstyle. Cubs has obviously indicated that he is familliar with Skruffs by stating that he doesn't see anything out of the ordinary. The thing is,
that is the exact same assessment that I had marked on Skruffs as I was reading the game
. People jumped all over Cubsf or sticking up for Skruffs, based on "he's trying to buddy up to a townie." This argument is terrible for two reasons:
1) Good reads on protown players exist. I played terribly for the most part early in LO2, but in that game, I made a list of some seven or eight players who I had a strong protown meta on. Guess what? Every single player on that list was protown.
2) It assumes that Skruffs is a townie. This is most alarming for the people who
first
attacked Skruffs and
then
went after Cubs for defending Skruffs. That is one of the reasons that we came to suspect you as one of our top choices, LmL. I got a very distinct "I'm going to attack Skruffs while his wagon is big, but as it's fading, Cubs is becoming the chic second option, so I'll switch there."

Based on the fact that A) Cubs felt smilarly to
both Primate and myself
regarding the entire Skruffs issue, and B) people seem to assume that because he's defending Skruffs, he's buddying up to Skruffs, I don't like the Cubswagon. At all.

Zindaras: Could you sum up your case against Xyzzy? I've
still
not had a chance to read the last few pages before we replaced into the game, and I definitely seem to be missing something.




Completing the list by re-inserting LmL near the bottom:
Unvote, Vote: Adele
, Mgm, CES, foolinc, Dragon Phoenix, [logicticus, Pooky, Talitha, Tamuz, Thesp, Xyzzy, Zindaras, VitaminR], [Cubsfan, Skruffs, IH, Dani Banani], Battle Mage, LoudmouthLee, No Lynch, Gaspar
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:15 am

Post by Battle Mage »

hmm. I'd hate to lynch a power role day 1. As Cubsfan is current concordet leader, its probably better that we dont lynch atall, so
Unvote
.
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Nightkilled - 10
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:18 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

hmm. I'd hate to lynch a power role day 1. As Cubsfan is current concordet leader, its probably better that we dont lynch atall, so Unvote.

Really?

I mean.. REALLY?

What do you know about Cubs's alignment?
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:20 am

Post by Zindaras »

Madre de dios, that's a horrible post from BM.

I'll post a more expansive post regarding xyzzy later on (busy with something else right now, it'll be before deadline). Until then, I think I posted some things against xyzzy before.
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68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:20 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Glorkspar wrote: 2) It assumes that Skruffs is a townie. This is most alarming for the people who first attacked Skruffs and then went after Cubs for defending Skruffs. That is one of the reasons that we came to suspect you as one of our top choices, LmL. I got a very distinct "I'm going to attack Skruffs while his wagon is big, but as it's fading, Cubs is becoming the chic second option, so I'll switch there."

Do you believe that a no lynch is better than a cubsfan lynch?
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"LML returns, plays one game, wins a Scummie, then leaves again!" - Primate
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:20 am

Post by Zindaras »

EBWOP: I'm also somewhat interested in people's opinions regarding xyzzy's posts, rather than people's opinions regarding my case regarding xyzzy's posts.
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68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
Cult: 0 Wins, 1 Loss
Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
59 Survived, 31 Lynched, 60 Killed
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:23 am

Post by Gaspar »

LoudmouthLee wrote:
Glorkspar wrote: 2) It assumes that Skruffs is a townie. This is most alarming for the people who first attacked Skruffs and then went after Cubs for defending Skruffs. That is one of the reasons that we came to suspect you as one of our top choices, LmL. I got a very distinct "I'm going to attack Skruffs while his wagon is big, but as it's fading, Cubs is becoming the chic second option, so I'll switch there."

Do you believe that a no lynch is better than a cubsfan lynch?
No. I am not
that
convinced that Cubs is town. But seriously, this wagon is far worse than the ones that cropped up on you and even Skruffs and BM/Jeep.

Cubs steps in to defend Skruffs.
Cubs gets attacked for defending Skruffs.
Cubs defends himself.
Cubs gets attacked for not contributing enough.

Do you really think that there's a good, solid case against Cubs, Lee? Make it explicit yet concise.
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:31 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

I have already told the town.. My vote on him is twofold.

#1) I want a lynch today for information.
#2) I do not want to be lynched myself.

I don't exactly "love" the case on him besides the "Scruffs being Scruffs" and "LML being LML but worthy of a vote anyway"
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:37 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Zindaras wrote:Madre de dios, that's a horrible post from BM.

I'll post a more expansive post regarding xyzzy later on (busy with something else right now, it'll be before deadline). Until then, I think I posted some things against xyzzy before.
i dont understand what you mean. Try posting in english. :roll:
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:37 am

Post by Gaspar »

What is your opinion of Adele anyway, LmL?


(Also, I'm currently reviewing Xyzzy's posts and making an analysis. In a few words: "Zindaras might have something here.")
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:39 am

Post by Zindaras »

"Madre de dios" means "Mother of God".

Why the
hell
would you want to No Lynch?
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Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
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Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:41 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Zindaras wrote:"Madre de dios" means "Mother of God".

Why the
hell
would you want to No Lynch?
I'd have thought it was obvious. If we dont get a majority, the lynch victim is the concordet leader. Currently this is Cubsfan, so even if we dont lynch, we still dont lose a claimed power role. The opposite of course would be with LML as Concordet leader, in which case we would need to pile votes onto Cubs, in order to protect LML.
Its alot easier than the explanation i've tried to make. Its in the rules, so you could read it more concisely there.

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:45 am

Post by Zindaras »

And why, exactly, is No Lynch better than Cubs? Or, well, pretty much anything else? Your explanation of the mechanics behind a No Lynch is all fun and games, but I want to know what motive I could possibly have for a no lynch.

The best way of making sure that LML is not lynched is to make an actual list and simply put him way down. Unvoting and doing nothing is not the way to do it. If anything, it is only scummy, since you are now indifferent between lynches.
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Finished: 159 (120 Town, 33 Mafia, 5 Other, 1 Cult, 4 Cultivated)
68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
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Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:50 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Zindaras wrote:And why, exactly, is No Lynch better than Cubs? Or, well, pretty much anything else? Your explanation of the mechanics behind a No Lynch is all fun and games, but I want to know what motive I could possibly have for a no lynch.

The best way of making sure that LML is not lynched is to make an actual list and simply put him way down. Unvoting and doing nothing is not the way to do it. If anything, it is only scummy, since you are now indifferent between lynches.
lol calm down Zindy. I didnt say that No-Lynch is the ideal option. I'm merely trying to point out that there is no especial reason TO lynch now, assuming Cubs is who we want to die either way. I realise you may have a phobia of the words 'No-Lynch', but in this case, i really cant see what the issue is. If i come on tonight and i see that me changing my list around will make a positive difference, i will do so. Otherwise, i'm content enough to leave it how it is, assuming it is inconsequential for today.

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:50 am

Post by Gaspar »

Okay, looking at ZZ's (Xyzzy's) posts, I'm not all that impressed.

Post 0 is a flavor/intro post.
Post 1, votes PWS because he thinks the "happiness for the game starting is a scumtell" tell is dumb. Also adds Skruffs and LmL for no discernable reason.
Post 2: Defends DP.
Post 3: Mgm's posts are each "a little scummy," but passes it off as possible playstyle and calls it useless. Based on my opinion of Mgm, I could definitely see this as a weak distancing tactic. "He's scummy but not really" pings hard.
Post 4: Defends his analysis of Mgm, as Zindaras accuses him of a misrepresentation. ZZ basically says he's calling it like he sees it.
<--NOTE: He fails to address Skruffs' question to him in GamePost 201. Skruffs asked how he factored into ZZ's Post 1 -- the same thing I found curious at a casual glance just now.-->
Post 5: Um... that's just confusing.
Post 6: "Yeah, that last post didn't make much sense." I think what he's getting at is this: Defending rapid changes in stance such as LmL's Condorcet change is okay. Post 6 and the relevant part of Post 5 came in response to Zindie's GamePost 244.
Post 7: An attack on Skruffs for Yay Thesp (assumes Thesp to be protown because Thesp is good) is a misrepresentation. The second point (not going to analyze Adele because he likes playing with her) is actually somewhat reasonable, though that doesn't surprise me much coming from Skruffs.
Post 8: Basically invokes a variant of Too Townie against Skruffs, with a dash of admitted WIFOM tossed in. He says if he's scum, he's going to try to look protown, so Skruffs outing himself in a way that is admittedly scummy means nothing for Skruffs. Ironically, ZZ points out his own WIFOM at the start of his post, but uses this reasoning anyway.
Post 9: Was working on PBPA of LmL, lost it, internet went down, might rewrite it. Somebody explain to me how this is any different than posts made by PWS, TSQ, Cubs, or anybody else who has been accused of flying under the radar.
Post 10: Says that "nothing is ever not a huge issue" in response to my thoughts on whether Condorcet-voting helps the scums choose who to kill. I believe I already addressed this, and that I saw it as a genuine misreading of my post.
Post 11: Three things. First, he is voting for PWS and not Gaspar. Lazy and/or not paying attention. Second, PWS is still near the top of his list for unknown reasons. I doubt it's based on the "dumb" scumtell that ZZ pointed out in his first post, but if it is, that's awfully weak. Third, in Post 10, he said that he "didn't think [Gaspar] was scum for" his response to Tamuz, yet he still has PWS at the top of his suspicions.


Bottom line, I would like Xyzzy to explain all of his current top suspects much more clearly. He's thrown down a couple of votes, but I don't feel that he has adequately explained
ANY
of them. Instead, he has pseudo-defended and pseudo-distanced from Mgm (somebody I believe is scum), made a really bad attack on Skruffs right at the height of the Skruffswagon, and he's made a few nonposts. I am rather unimpressed.
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:51 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Well, Zin. According to the most recent vote count... there are two pairwise electors AHEAD of xyzzy, and only two.

One of them is cubsfan. The other? Me.

You need to get others to not only move xyzzy up, but to move the both of us down. Something about xyzzy's posts do not allow my to view them by author at work (damn blocker)
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:52 am

Post by Gaspar »

Battle Mage wrote:I'm merely trying to point out that there is no especial reason TO lynch now
I know a rather large handful of players who would say "Information," and I don't disagree with that opinion. And I myself would say that No-Lynching D1 is at least on the Top 5 of the
Worst Things a Town Could Possibly Do
.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:57 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Gaspar wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:I'm merely trying to point out that there is no especial reason TO lynch now
I know a rather large handful of players who would say "Information," and I don't disagree with that opinion. And I myself would say that No-Lynching D1 is at least on the Top 5 of the
Worst Things a Town Could Possibly Do
.
Please explain. I dont want you to reel off a whole list of generalisations, because they are of no relevance to this game. I want solid reasoning why lynching in this precise game, is preferable to not-lynching, but still ending up with the same victim. You claimed information was a reason, but i beg to differ. In some ways, i think more information can be gleaned from a lynch based on everyones list, than merely their 1 vote alone.
So, please tell me where i am going wrong.

Also, is this Primate or Glork i am talking to?

BM
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:03 am

Post by Mgm »

Unvote; Vote: cubsfan
, move LML on level with BM, keep rest of the Condorcet the same.
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:08 am

Post by Gaspar »

(All posts since Glork stepped in to respond to LmL have been made by Glork, including this one. Primate is, as far as I can tell, not around.)


Okay, BM.

Presumably, day play favors the town. It is the town's best (and oftentimes, only, in the case of mountainous games) method of eliminating scum. As a balancing factor, night play should favor the scum slightly. Between that and the "informed minority" aspect, a game should be properly balanced.

Assuming this is true, if we are inactive during the day portion of the game, we are handing a clear advantage to the scums.

As I stated, information is important. We've seen a wagon on you which led to claim, a wagon on LmL which led to claim, and two wagons which have not (yet) produced claims: The earlier one on Skruffs and the currentone on Cubsfan. The problem is, none of these give us any solid information. You are not confirmed town. LmL isn't confirmed town. We don't know anything definitive about Skruffs' or Cubs' role or alignment. As bodies hit the ground, we will eventually learn this information, but in the meantime, we will be making less informed decisions with our night actions.

Furthermore, the idea of waiting around to see what night actions occur is preposterous because the scums will take their action(s) based on what will suit
them
the most and/or what will help the town the
least
. It's for this kind of reason that, even though I don't like a Cubslynch, I would rather see him lynched over no-lynching. At least it's something that is supposedly supported (to an extent) by protown players.
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:10 am

Post by Gaspar »

Oh, that reminds me.

Mgm:
Have you read the links in the first post? Have you read them carefully? Why on earth did you ask "what are Dantes"?

LmL:
If you're around, I still want to hear your thoughts on Adele. If you're not, I want you to prepare something overnight so that I can hopefully see it tomorrow.
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:15 am

Post by Battle Mage »

What you say is true, but i think you have missed the point. I am not suggesting that we don't lynch anyone today. I'm saying that it doesnt matter if we reach a vote majority or not, because the concordet vote, as it stands, will result in a Cubs lynch anyway. I'm not sure whether you understood this. If you did, i still don't understand why that is an issue.

BM


Gaspar wrote:(All posts since Glork stepped in to respond to LmL have been made by Glork, including this one. Primate is, as far as I can tell, not around.)


Okay, BM.

Presumably, day play favors the town. It is the town's best (and oftentimes, only, in the case of mountainous games) method of eliminating scum. As a balancing factor, night play should favor the scum slightly. Between that and the "informed minority" aspect, a game should be properly balanced.

Assuming this is true, if we are inactive during the day portion of the game, we are handing a clear advantage to the scums.

As I stated, information is important. We've seen a wagon on you which led to claim, a wagon on LmL which led to claim, and two wagons which have not (yet) produced claims: The earlier one on Skruffs and the currentone on Cubsfan. The problem is, none of these give us any solid information. You are not confirmed town. LmL isn't confirmed town. We don't know anything definitive about Skruffs' or Cubs' role or alignment. As bodies hit the ground, we will eventually learn this information, but in the meantime, we will be making less informed decisions with our night actions.

Furthermore, the idea of waiting around to see what night actions occur is preposterous because the scums will take their action(s) based on what will suit
them
the most and/or what will help the town the
least
. It's for this kind of reason that, even though I don't like a Cubslynch, I would rather see him lynched over no-lynching. At least it's something that is supposedly supported (to an extent) by protown players.
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:21 am

Post by Gaspar »

(Glork.)

Oh, okay. Yeah, I just misunderstood the point you were trying to make. I'm still curious/confused as to why you unvoted and advocated a No Lynch to begin with.

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