California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Mgm]

Now is the time. If we don't get a Condorcet winner, all the day's effort will result in a no lynch. We're no longer in the random voting stages.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If I wait till monday, I'll have more influence over who's getting lynched today. I'm devious!

(It also helps the town because I might be able to ensure a lynch over no lynch if necessary.)

[Zindaras]

You are allowed to change your votes, you know. And, quite frankly, I want to see your list now. As said before, if you post it now, you have a lot less variability and you can't just do whatever you want with it if you're scum without having to explain anything.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And, quite frankly, I want to see your list now.

This is the only convincing part of your post.

More importantly, I found a rather large hole in my devious plan, which is that my access is very shaky on monday. I should think more before I plan.

I'll re-read today and make a list with at least 5 tiers of scummitude, not including myself and no-lynch.

[IH]

Have you actually read my posts? Did you not read the lengthy explanations about how posting Concordet votes helps the town? Did you see my explanations on how not-posting them (and/or discouraging others to post them by calling them pointless or scummy) hurts the town?

Minor FoS: IH for simply not paying any attention to what's going on.

Yes I read, and I disagree. Especially in the beginning of the game, which this is mostly about. Not using a condorcent list is not scummy for sake of keeping things simple in the beginning.

I have only used it twice myself. This accomplishes the same thing as someone listing their scum list. Do you expect everyone to do that in every game automatically and everytime?

IH putting Lee on his vote while in effect only moving BM up since his vote was already on Lee so he's effectively while putting Lee in his "vote part" actually exonerating Lee by putting BM ahead of him in Condorcet Rankings since he is moving up BM. Looks Hella scummy.(Someone correct me if I'm misinterpreting how these condorcet rankings work)

Yes, since I pointed it out.

The latter part of your sentence isn't really true. LML is voting MoS because he said it looked contrived. That has little to do with how long it takes. It seems strange to vote someone purely for disagreeing with their argumentation, especially since he hasn't really pushed the Zindy thing all that much.

I believe his main contention was that he went to great efforts to make it look random, just so it would look random. When it really is a simple process this argument loses alot of gusto. The only way it would have taken him a great deal of effort is if he was actually trying to contrive it.

5. DP had reasons for BWing Jeep, but from what i can gather from my own comments, those reasons were either copied, or very very 'suspect'.

How?

Hey-didnt you just accuse me of trying to cast bogus suspicion onto people without committing to a vote? strange how comments like that come back and bite you in the butt, eh?
Metagame evidence is often only valid for the individual who has that experience. I cannot refer to ongoing games, as even if nobody here is playing in those games, information here will probably leak, and it will ruin those games for everyone. If you don't believe me, why dont you go and find some COMPLETED games of Oman's in order to refute my claims. I mean, you love metagaming proof right?

Since you're the one who brought it up, you should already have a completed game where it is valid.

You think me naming post numbers in order to make it clearer for the rest of you, is a scumtell? ROFLMAO! I'm not quite sure how i have 'OMGUSed my way onto a vote list', as i've only voted for 2 people since joining, and as i'm pretty sure that 1 of them wasnt even voting for me. I might be wrong, but then, just because someone is voting for me, does that make them confirmed town?
Oh and me ignoring the case on Jeep is BS, as i have shown recognition of it multiple times. If i didnt KNOW he was protown, he would probably have been fairly high on my suspect list. As i do KNOW he was protown, i am naturally very wary of the arguments that are being manufactured against him.

No, you're looking at post numbers, but ignoring the amount of time in between posts.

Other than that, almost everyone who was on your condorcent list was on the jeep wagon or expressed suspicion against him.

"manufactured?"

8. Rofl. You've never used information from ongoing games before? I mean, what the hell would you do in my position? Quote from an ongoing game, thus ruining it for everyone, and probably getting myself banned?
Yeah, that would suit you just great wouldnt it.

No, I was pretty sure that you didn't have any proof of it.

actually, i sometimes get visions like that. Sometimes they are right, but sometimes they arent. In my experience its probably better to use logic first, and perhaps use the dream to back up that logic. I do find it a little coincidental that you NOW want to switch to LML, just as IH has done the same thing.

I was already on Lee.

But you are on the top of my condorcent list now, which should make you the condorcet leader.

I'd like to note that although IH says he wants BM to die in 438, he puts BM behind Lee on his Condorcet list, which actually means he's keeping BM alive that way.

Please correct me if the above is lwrong.

[IH]

Have you actually read my posts? Did you not read the lengthy explanations about how posting Concordet votes helps the town? Did you see my explanations on how not-posting them (and/or discouraging others to post them by calling them pointless or scummy) hurts the town?

Minor FoS: IH for simply not paying any attention to what's going on.

Yes I read, and I disagree. Especially in the beginning of the game, which this is mostly about. Not using a condorcent list is not scummy for sake of keeping things simple in the beginning.

I have only used it twice myself. This accomplishes the same thing as someone listing their scum list. Do you expect everyone to do that in every game automatically and everytime?

IH putting Lee on his vote while in effect only moving BM up since his vote was already on Lee so he's effectively while putting Lee in his "vote part" actually exonerating Lee by putting BM ahead of him in Condorcet Rankings since he is moving up BM. Looks Hella scummy.(Someone correct me if I'm misinterpreting how these condorcet rankings work)

Yes, since I pointed it out.

The latter part of your sentence isn't really true. LML is voting MoS because he said it looked contrived. That has little to do with how long it takes. It seems strange to vote someone purely for disagreeing with their argumentation, especially since he hasn't really pushed the Zindy thing all that much.

I believe his main contention was that he went to great efforts to make it look random, just so it would look random. When it really is a simple process this argument loses alot of gusto. The only way it would have taken him a great deal of effort is if he was actually trying to contrive it.

5. DP had reasons for BWing Jeep, but from what i can gather from my own comments, those reasons were either copied, or very very 'suspect'.

How?

Hey-didnt you just accuse me of trying to cast bogus suspicion onto people without committing to a vote? strange how comments like that come back and bite you in the butt, eh?
Metagame evidence is often only valid for the individual who has that experience. I cannot refer to ongoing games, as even if nobody here is playing in those games, information here will probably leak, and it will ruin those games for everyone. If you don't believe me, why dont you go and find some COMPLETED games of Oman's in order to refute my claims. I mean, you love metagaming proof right?

Since you're the one who brought it up, you should already have a completed game where it is valid.

You think me naming post numbers in order to make it clearer for the rest of you, is a scumtell? ROFLMAO! I'm not quite sure how i have 'OMGUSed my way onto a vote list', as i've only voted for 2 people since joining, and as i'm pretty sure that 1 of them wasnt even voting for me. I might be wrong, but then, just because someone is voting for me, does that make them confirmed town?
Oh and me ignoring the case on Jeep is BS, as i have shown recognition of it multiple times. If i didnt KNOW he was protown, he would probably have been fairly high on my suspect list. As i do KNOW he was protown, i am naturally very wary of the arguments that are being manufactured against him.

No, you're looking at post numbers, but ignoring the amount of time in between posts.

Other than that, almost everyone who was on your condorcent list was on the jeep wagon or expressed suspicion against him.

"manufactured?"

8. Rofl. You've never used information from ongoing games before? I mean, what the hell would you do in my position? Quote from an ongoing game, thus ruining it for everyone, and probably getting myself banned?
Yeah, that would suit you just great wouldnt it.

No, I was pretty sure that you didn't have any proof of it.

actually, i sometimes get visions like that. Sometimes they are right, but sometimes they arent. In my experience its probably better to use logic first, and perhaps use the dream to back up that logic. I do find it a little coincidental that you NOW want to switch to LML, just as IH has done the same thing.

I was already on Lee.

But you are on the top of my condorcent list now, which should make you the condorcet leader.

I'd like to note that although IH says he wants BM to die in 438, he puts BM behind Lee on his Condorcet list, which actually means he's keeping BM alive that way.

Please correct me if the above is lwrong.

[Mgm]

I will explain again: People who ask for clarification in thread, IMHO are trying to appear more townie when they are really not.

You're forgetting Occam's Razor. They may just be looking for a clarification, which if everyone plays well, will be the case in the majority of the times it happens. If you want to claim that someone is trying to appear townish by asking for clarification you have to have something else to back it up with that such a player doesn't share with the pro-town people in the game.

I like MGM's post 369, though his quote about DP never saying there were two families are misleading. Pretty much both Skruff and DP are being scummy about that one = \

I already quoted the guy. I have evidence (the quote that states what he actually said), you have speculation (the idea he might've slipped up).

Skruffs seems to be posting prolifically, and evidently seems keen to contribute. On the other hand, the speed of the BW on him, seems more like bussing than an attempted mislynch…

Please enlighten us all and tell us how you can see the difference between the two.

[Mgm]

(Glork here again)

<snip>

Mgm, could you please comment on the parts of my post that pertained to you. In particular, I would like you to explain exactly what your stance on early Concordet voting is,

In the early stages of the game votes are basically random. Random votes say little about a person's suspicions, they can be changed without being considered suspicious and they do not help when it comes to choosing a Condorcet winner for a deadline lynch situation. That's why I think it's better to wait until you have suspicions that are based on

something

.

and I would like you to respond to this paragraph:

Basically, the philosophy is that anything is better than nothing. A protown player should have little problem expressing his weighted suspicions. He should also have relatively little trouble expanding upon those suspicions when asked to. Mgm, DP:

NOTHING

is stopping you from asking Jeep to explain his lists. Yet instead of doing that, you have both chosen to simply attack him for his chosen play. Major

FoS: DP, Mgm

What is wrong about attacking someone for their chosen play, if said play is scummy? Currently, the fact jeep has been replaced is stopping me from asking him to explain himself. Regardless, when I said that votes on Condorcet lists should be explained, jeep said that was only necessary if you wanted to follow the voter on a wagon (which is wrong). Instead of explaining himself as I said any pro-town player should do, he chose to attack me for saying so -- I'm pretty convinced asking him directly, wouldn't have much of a positive effect.

Right now, I can see from the current vote count that both you and DP are still (or once again) voting for Jeep, and I think that your behavior towards him early in the game was inexcusable. I want you to explain posthaste.

He acted scummy, I voted him. If you want me to explain myself about the behavior you find inexcusable, you'd have to be more specific on what you're talking about.

[Mgm]

And I already shared my opinion on early Condorcet voting.

I'm asking you to further elaborate on your opinion of early-day Concordet voting. I would like you to address these two points specifically, without simply saying "I already talked about this." Keep in mind that I have not read much of the game, so I'm not caught up on all of your explanations. I don't care if you have to re-state your opinion, I just want you to do it clearly and concisely:

It doesn't seem like you read the thread at all, because the post in which I explained my view was my ninth, somewhere on the 4-5th page of the game:

To make it clear: I don't particularly like using Concordet voting this early in the game when everything is still too hazy, so I'll do things the old fashioned way.

[Dragon Phoenix]

We got back a bit early due to the weather, so I can quickly get in a 25 words or more post to fulfil the requirements, sleep late tomorrow and still be in time to do a final analysis of day one with the deadline looming. Ta.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're forgetting Occam's Razor.

You should prefer the simpler solution if it works just as well, but that doesn't mean discounting the other solution alltogether. If he feels the other option is still realistic, then he should take it into account. Scum tells tend to be probabilistic in method and some do have simpler town explanations than scum ones, but that doesn't make them any less useful when it comes to finding scum.

Of course, LmL's "scum tell" is very likely bogus, as it's not something I expect scum to do consciously at all, but that's besides the point.

[Mgm]

If he feels the other option is still realistic, then he should take it into account.

Naturally. The problem I had with it, is that he chose an option without even mentioning the simpler and more common explanation. In his post he totally ignores the possibility of a townie asking for an explanation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Then why bring up Occam's Razor? Occam's Razor basically states that you should prefer simpler theories and explanations, which is true, but not particularly applicable to scum tells. The townie option can be superior without the scum tell losing its value.

[logicticus]

wrote:
Pssshhhht
^^^^The sound of a hole being poked in a case.

Not at all. If you were part of a 3-player mafia, wouldn't you expect there to be another mafia? I definitely would. (I still don't agree with the case though.)

Why would you immediately suspect another mafia group and not another device to even out the odds?

Adele, can you please answer my previous question.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Additional mafia groups are more common.

[Mr. Grey]

Deadline:

Approximately 48.5 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

11 to lynch.

Cubsfan4ever: 4 (foolinc, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha)
LoudmouthLee: 4 (Cubsfan4ever, IH/Oman, Skruffs, Thesp)
Dragon Phoenix: 3 (Adele, Battle Mage/jeep, Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels)
Battle Mage/jeep: 3 (Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, Mgm)
foolinc: 1 (Tamuz/Thestatusquo)
IH/Oman: 1 (logicticus)
Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels: 1 (xyzzy)
Skruffs: 1 (VitaminR)
xyzzy: 1 (Zindaras)

Current Condorcet Winner:

None. Current Smith Set: Battle Mage/jeep, LoudmouthLee

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

Important Note:

When compiling Condorcet lists, I am treating unvotes as a complete reset of the list. If you wish to retain the same (or similar) list when unvoting or changing your vote, please post another copy of the list.

[Mgm]

Then why bring up Occam's Razor? Occam's Razor basically states that you should prefer simpler theories and explanations, which is true, but not particularly applicable to scum tells. The townie option can be superior without the scum tell losing its value.

I don't consider asking for clarification on a vote a scum tell. Do you?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't consider what Zindy did a scum tell, no. But that doesn't mean I don't disagree with your reasons for disagreeing with LmL's stance.

[Mgm]

Zindaras? I'm talking about LML.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zindaras is the one who asked for clarification. LmL is the one who considers it a scum tell. We're talking about both.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, Gaspar, dude, as I repeated previously, there's nothing special in non-deadline situations about making lists of suspects in this game, so if you want to advocate making lists all the time in this game, you should advocate it in all games.

Time to make my list, but first some explanations in a fairly arbitrary format:
Cubsfan (for his first post), Skruffs (for his attempt to paint the bandwagonners in a scummy light early on), Mgm (Occam's Razor), LoudmouthLee (see posts 162-163, otherwise has acted his loud self), xyzzy(likes J-pop(my favourite scum tell)), logicticus (gut, inquisitive)

Vote: Battle Mage

, [Cubsfan, Skruffs], [Mgm, LoudmouthLee, xyzzy], [everyone else, excluding me], [Dragon Phoenix, logicticus]

[LoudmouthLee]

I don't think I'm going to get a long enough post in on time besides thios post (as I will be at at my 10pin bowling league in the AM and a Wedding all friggin day after that tomorrow), the next time I will check the thread will be Monday at 8:00am EST. I just do not want to forget to do this.

I cannot wait to respond to the MGM/CES discussion.

From most suspicious to least suspicious. first bracketed grouping being little to no read on, second bracked grouping seems more pro-town to me. CES seems most pro-town to me.

Vote: BattleMage / Jeep

, Cubsfan, Zindaras, MGM, Skruffs, Adele, Xyzzy, Thesp, [foolinc, pooky, tally, Tamuz, IH, Logictius, Dani Banani ], [DP, Gaspar, VitR], CES

[Tamuz]

Is anyone worried that tiering innocence rather than to guilt will help scum line up a few targets that they would like to take out if a large amount of people find them innocentish rather than less guilty.

I say this to perhaps suggest we should take off our no-read/inconclusive/innocents from our Condorcet lists (ie lump all 3 of those in 1 category). I say this because from experience if people stress that they feel one player is innocent, and that player is, then scum are often more likely to hit them. Barring other circumstances.

[LoudmouthLee]

Oh wait. rereading deadline time, I'll get one or two more posts in.

[Gaspar]

Yes I read, and I disagree. Especially in the beginning of the game, which this is mostly about. Not using a condorcent list is not scummy for sake of keeping things simple in the beginning.

I have only used it twice myself. This accomplishes the same thing as someone listing their scum list. Do you expect everyone to do that in every game automatically and everytime?

"Automatically and everytime"? No. Although I've noted your exaggeration/use of extremes.

I will point out, however, that I am the kind of player who, in the vast majority of my games, tries to force players to branch out and talk about other people. I have a tendency to ask for suspicion lists, ask W to give his thoughts on X, Y, and Z.

I have found great success in

FORCING

other players into interactions with each other. Interactions/Opinions from a protown player will be genuine and will have their own indicators. Those coming from a scumbag will be forced and/or contrived and will also have their own indicators. Reading those indicators is a pretty damned good way of finding scums.

While I do not request full suspicion lists from all players in every game "automatically and everytime," I would say that I *DO* generally ask more questions of more players. That is something that not enough players do in Mafia, I think.

I think that players hiding behind the "We don't do it every game, so we shouldn't do it here?" philosophy is using a flawed line of reasoning to avoid making commitments on their thoughts on certain players.

It seems, to me, to be a front to avoid talking about more things. There are probably *DOZENS* of playstyles and strategies that are helpful to the town, but not all of them are employed by every player in every game all the time. Why? Because that is an absolutely preposterous notion. However, that does not mean that we shouldn't employ each of those strategies from time to time. A brute-force method of opinion-sharing is something that I don't think I've ever seen a town try before. I think we should definitely give it a shot.