'The Lost Boys' Mafia (Cry Little Sister, it's OVER!)

[GodOfWine]

HackerHuck seems to be reaching incredibly far with that little "your not remembering game details makes you scummy and not forgetful" thing. I never had a high opinion of him in the first place (I think I mentioned my suspicion of him back on Day 1, although my not knowing will probably make me suspicious to him).

[Ectomancer]

HH made sense to me. I think the incredibly preceding the far was overboard.

I should be voting GodOfWine, but I can't remember exactly why.

[Arafax]

I agree with BM on the HH/MoS deal...I think that if MoS was scum he would have never posted what he did...WIFOM, but that's my opinion.

[-TinVision-]

I’ve been saying I would reread, paying special attention to GodOfWine for several days now, so here’s my

Totally Awesome and Tediously-Post-Linked PBPA on Indy/GodOfWine with post summaries in plaintext and

commentary in italics

Indy:

Post #10: Confirmation

Post #47: Randomly votes Yosarian2

Post #139: “Somewhat” agrees with Amb that the case on Arafax is poor
Unvotes
Thinks TCS was making a joke and that Arafax seems to want to capitalize on the situation
FoSes Arafax

Arafax is not that scummy and not worthy of vote, but seems opportunistic, so Indy FoSes him. Very strange.

Post #158: A unbolded and unnecessary unvote
Feels Arafax didn’t address the concern that he was attempting to mislead newbies

Post #196: Says Arafax has backpedaled and been suspicious, but that he caught a lot of flak and that some of that was from mafia
Votes Sir Laggalot without explanation

Again the inconsistencies. Also, I don't like the unexplained vote, even if Laggalot was in the public eye at the time.

I’ll note here that TheFonz claims David between these posts.

GodOfWine:

Post #442: Does not think TheFonz is scum.
Very suspicious of SirLaggalot & Arafax
Not suspicious of TCS, thinks jokiness is his playstyle

Post #453: Vote Amb. No reasoning provided, except “reread”.
FoS Mariyta for bandwagoning, inactivity, Albert connection, Fonz L-1
Is not suspicious of TheFonz

Note that in his first two posts, he has strongly stated that he does not think TheFonz is scummy. This will be interesting later.

Post #455:Says his inclusion of the Albert connection in Mariyta's case is “sarcastic” in response to Albert

I don't know if I believe this or not. Possible overdefensiveness.

Post #476: Confused by the Mariyta — Albert interaction

Post 478: Supports MoS’s vote on Arafax because of Arafax's lurking
Restates that Amb is scummy

Amb is scummy enough for a vote and confirm vote, but still not worth making a case against?

Post #493: Explains to HackerHuck that he finds Amb “so scummy” because of Amb’s post #459
Says that everyone should be voting someone at this point in the day

Post #496: Reminding TCS that Indy was replaced by himself

Post #514: Says singleton voters should get on a bandwagon
Asking non-voters why they aren’t voting

It's an interesting change here from “everyone should be voting” to “singleton voters should choose a more popular target for the sake of compromise”. HackerHuck noted this vote as very scummy shortly hereafter.

Post #518: Replies to Ectomancer that people should be willing to compromise on someone they find reasonably scummy
Mentions that “it’s the freaking 21st page and we’re nowhere”

Post #552 Wants to test TheFonz
“someone had to” place the lynch vote

This is GodOfWine’s most damning post IMO. TheFonz has already claimed when GodOfWine makes his first post, and he repeats that he is not suspicious of TheFonz. Then, after making NINE posts that don’t mention TheFonz AT ALL, he suddenly thinks that David can’t go unlynched?

Post #556: It’s the “obvious choice” for the vampire recruiter to recruit a vanilla vamp

I didn’t like this post at the time and I still don’t. I just see no reason why any would speculate out of the blue that the recruiter could only target the vanilla vamps.

Post #563: Responds to me that he isn’t promoting a claimed vanilla vamp lynch, just saying that they’re the obvious choice to recruit, but maybe too obvious?

I don’t see why he had to reemphasize the pointless WIFOM over an unlikely speculative scenario. Meh.

Post #570: Vote Amb. Says he’s still suspicious of Amb.

And we still lack specific reasoning for this suspicion beyond your “readthrough” and his above-mentioned Post #459.

Post #603: Says Arafax’s willingness to lynch TheFonz makes little sense
You both have similar claims, but you don’t believe him?

Post #609: Understands Arafax’s explanation now

Post #676: Doesn’t want to lynch BM, but agrees with dybeck that BM’s emotion is not helpful

GodOfWine’s posts are much fewer and farther-between today. Don’t really know what, if anything, that says.

Post #725: Disagrees with HackerHuck; not remembering game details is forgetful, not scummy
States that he’s had some suspicions of HackerHuck for some time
States that he thinks he mentioned his suspicion of HackerHuck D1 (in fact, he did not)

It’s late now, and I have to sleep. I do find sufficient cause, particularly in his dramatic and unannounced change of opinion on TheFonz, to

Vote GodOfWine

.

[Arafax]

GodOfWine - What say you?

[Sir.Laggalot]

I kinda see what you are saying -TinVision-, but I would have to disagree, GodOfWine seemed a little scummy to me in the beginning but now there seem to be better vote options.

[Mariyta]

I agree with Laggsy. But GodOfWine is definately someone to keep an eye on, and I would like to hear his response to that post, specifically the comment about his lynch vote.

[GodOfWine]

Hmm. I do not know what to say that would not be equally damning. The honest explanation of the lynch vote was impatience. I thought there was a decent chance that the Fonz's claim was bogus because of the significance to the film so I didn't have a problem giving the hammer based on finding out details about the setup instead of finding the Fonz overly scummy. About that time, the Fonz was also making a lot of frantic and angry posts that made him more of a target in my mind.

Also, now that you have alerted me to the fact that I never aired any suspicions about Hackerhuck, I have them now and that's that.

[Ectomancer]

Nice wishy-washy comments on his post there SirLags and Mariyta. A less non-committal response would have been appreciated.

@TinVision, I personally think that much of the hullabaloo surrounding TCS's joke post early on was just that. It might make a good reference later after more lynches and night scenes to go on, but for now I think that entire interaction is currently a null tell until more information arrives, and even then conclusions will be dubious.

You make a good point about his vote for Amb.

Everything after post #514 on by GoW all give me poor vibes. Post #518 in particular strikes me that GoW would like to convince us that we are back at the random vote stage, a place undeniably more advantageous to scum than town.

I didn't see the connection between GOW and HH until you pointed out HH's reply to GoW post #514. GoW's statement about HH seems like a belated OMGUS in that light, but that sure is a long time for that, so I doubt thats what it was. A more plausible explanation to me is that he remembered HH casting suspicion on him day 1 (that's what jogged his memory, not that he posted suspicion) and needed to start working a case against him for later. He couldn't do it on day 1, because then it

would

have looked like an OMGUS. If this is the case, then I would question why town would need to remember to throw suspicion on someone just because they said

you

were suspicious. Re-read post 725 by God of Wine and see if he himself was not the one "reaching incredibly far" to cast suspicion.

vote GoW

though I realize that my post #726 could be considered "fishing" for support, followed by this post as soon as I got it. If you want to counter-vote me for it, that's fine, but before that happens, I would expect to see an analysis on the entire interaction and not just a lazy one liner opportunistic vote.

[Mr. Flay]

Sixth Vote Count of Day Two:

Sudo_Nym - 5 (Crub, The Central Scrutinizer, VitaminR, HackerHuck, Mastermind of Sin)

Mariyta - 2 (Arafax, dybeck)
dybeck - 2 (Mariyta, Yosarian2)
GodOfWine - 2 (-TinVision-, Ectomancer)
Amb - 1 (GodOfWine)
-TinVision- - 1 (Battle Mage)
Battle Mage - 1 (PookyTheMagicalBear)

Not voting - 4 (AniX, Sir.Laggalot, Amb, Sudo_Nym)

With eighteen present, ten votes will lynch.

[Mariyta]

Nice wishy-washy comments on his post there SirLags and Mariyta. A less non-committal response would have been appreciated.

If you're calling it non-committal because I didn't vote him, then yes, it was non-committal, and it will remain that way. I agree with TinVision's assessment, but it's not strong enough to move my vote off dybeck, who I feel is a better choice.

[Ectomancer]

Nice wishy-washy comments on his post there SirLags and Mariyta. A less non-committal response would have been appreciated.

If you're calling it non-committal because I didn't vote him, then yes, it was non-committal, and it will remain that way. I agree with TinVision's assessment, but it's not strong enough to move my vote off dybeck, who I feel is a better choice.

No, I said it because you said you agree with Lagsy. In fact it would have been odd for you to vote after saying that, as Lagsy basically said he understood the point, but disagreed. That too would be ok, but after saying that you didn't agree with the case, you both indicated that we should keep GoW on the warmer. Well, is there a case to investigate or not? By saying you disagree and cutting off discussion on it, you are indicating that there isn't. But if we should look at again later, then there is something there, and why shouldn't we look at it now?

[Mastermind of Sin]

i'm lost

sorry

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, me to. I really have no idea what's going on in this game at all anymore. I guess I'll attempt to re-read again.

[Battle Mage]

^These 2 players are obviously protown.

[Mariyta]

Well, is there a case to investigate or not? By saying you disagree and cutting off discussion on it, you are indicating that there isn't. But if we should look at again later, then there is something there, and why shouldn't we look at it now?

To reiterate what I said before... there is a case, but it's not strong enough to push it further at this point, in my opinion. To answer your second question... just because there is a case against someone, it isn't always the strongest case, and it should be put on the back burner while the more likely suspects are evaluated. Trying to say that we should go after everyone who looks suspicious is just silly. We don't have time for that. It's possible to make a case against anyone here, but is that the smart way to go? No. We need to pick those who we feel the strongest about and investigate them first.

[Yosarian2]

Ok. I've just done a full re-read, jotted down notes about everyone, and far and away, the scummiest looking person has to be Sir.Laggalot . This is what I have on him in my notes:

Sir.Laggalot:Made absolutely no sense day 1. Pushed illogical theories. Made a completely wrong summery of the game and of who voted for who. Accused me and Vitiman R of being scum together for illogical reasons. Continues the accusation even after the entire basis of it (his incorrect “voting records”) was proven to be false. Speculated about which roles might be scum. Speculated about which role names might have which powers. Seemed overly convinced at the start of day 2 of the correctness of the “recruiting scum” theory.

unvote

vote:Sir.Laggalot

[GodOfWine]

When you put it all nice and concise like that,

unvote, vote: Sir.Laggalot

[dybeck]

Interesting, Yos.

What are your thoughts on Mariyta and Sudo_Nym?

[Yosarian2]

I don't really have a strong opinion on Maritya at this point. She needs to post more, she's almost but not quite a lurker, but then again that's also been true of me and several other people so far this game. None of her posts really rang any alarm bells with me on the re-read I just did.

One or two of Sudo's early posts looked scummy (as I pointed out earlier in the game), and he's a reasonable suspect. Wouldn't be my first choice for a lynch today, though.

[Battle Mage]

my vote on Tinvision isnt doing anything, so

Unvote, Vote: GoW

[Ectomancer]

Ok. I've just done a full re-read, jotted down notes about everyone, and far and away, the scummiest looking person has to be Sir.Laggalot . This is what I have on him in my notes:

Sir.Laggalot:Made absolutely no sense day 1. Pushed illogical theories. Made a completely wrong summery of the game and of who voted for who. Accused me and Vitiman R of being scum together for illogical reasons. Continues the accusation even after the entire basis of it (his incorrect “voting records”) was proven to be false. Speculated about which roles might be scum. Speculated about which role names might have which powers. Seemed overly convinced at the start of day 2 of the correctness of the “recruiting scum” theory.

unvote

vote:Sir.Laggalot

I still believe Sir.Laggalot to be a n00b and a less than gifted one to boot.

[Yosarian2]

Ok. I've just done a full re-read, jotted down notes about everyone, and far and away, the scummiest looking person has to be Sir.Laggalot . This is what I have on him in my notes:

Sir.Laggalot:Made absolutely no sense day 1. Pushed illogical theories. Made a completely wrong summery of the game and of who voted for who. Accused me and Vitiman R of being scum together for illogical reasons. Continues the accusation even after the entire basis of it (his incorrect “voting records”) was proven to be false. Speculated about which roles might be scum. Speculated about which role names might have which powers. Seemed overly convinced at the start of day 2 of the correctness of the “recruiting scum” theory.

unvote

vote:Sir.Laggalot

I still believe Sir.Laggalot to be a n00b and a less than gifted one to boot.

True, but that's irrelevent. The question is, is he a newbie scum or a newbie town? And while some of those tells any newbie could make (speculating in the wrong ways is a common mistake for newbies), the general pattern looks more like newb scum then newb town to me, especally the parts about the factually untrue posts and the way he appears to have more knowlege at the start of day 2 then a pro-town player would.

[dybeck]

Ok. I've just done a full re-read, jotted down notes about everyone, and far and away, the scummiest looking person has to be Sir.Laggalot . This is what I have on him in my notes:

Sir.Laggalot:Made absolutely no sense day 1. Pushed illogical theories. Made a completely wrong summery of the game and of who voted for who. Accused me and Vitiman R of being scum together for illogical reasons. Continues the accusation even after the entire basis of it (his incorrect “voting records”) was proven to be false. Speculated about which roles might be scum. Speculated about which role names might have which powers. Seemed overly convinced at the start of day 2 of the correctness of the “recruiting scum” theory.

unvote

vote:Sir.Laggalot

I still believe Sir.Laggalot to be a n00b and a less than gifted one to boot.

[Ectomancer]

Ok. I've just done a full re-read, jotted down notes about everyone, and far and away, the scummiest looking person has to be Sir.Laggalot . This is what I have on him in my notes:

Sir.Laggalot:Made absolutely no sense day 1. Pushed illogical theories. Made a completely wrong summery of the game and of who voted for who. Accused me and Vitiman R of being scum together for illogical reasons. Continues the accusation even after the entire basis of it (his incorrect “voting records”) was proven to be false. Speculated about which roles might be scum. Speculated about which role names might have which powers. Seemed overly convinced at the start of day 2 of the correctness of the “recruiting scum” theory.

unvote

vote:Sir.Laggalot

I still believe Sir.Laggalot to be a n00b and a less than gifted one to boot.

True, but that's irrelevent. The question is, is he a newbie scum or a newbie town? And while some of those tells any newbie could make (speculating in the wrong ways is a common mistake for newbies), the general pattern looks more like newb scum then newb town to me, especally the parts about the factually untrue posts and the way he appears to have more knowlege at the start of day 2 then a pro-town player would.

My philosophy on these types of players is that there is little reason to lynch them early. They look so bad that they usually get investigated/tracked/watched by the relevant pro-town roles, meaning we will get good information eventually on them, or we finally get to the point where they need to be lynched because there really is no better option. That point isn't day 2 in a 19 player game IMO.
Because that is my philosophy, I dont like it when these types of players are being pushed as a lynch early. Does it mean I am willing to treat SirLags differently than I would treat other players? Sure, but then I treat all players differently based upon what I know about their playstyle.

Yosarian, maybe to sum it up better I can paraphrase a quote I saw somewhere recently. "Never attribute to malice that which you can attribute to stupidity or incompetence."
I don't think GoW is stupid or incompetent.