Blitz 4: Kingmaker (game over)

[Soft-spoken]

oh wow. im wrong. ok MY BAD

[Soft-spoken]

@mod if you were to receive a king selection would you post it immediately?

[Smithereens]

the king was chosen in the middle of the day for Dp1. Read le rules.

[Smithereens]

oh you did. ok.

[Titus]

@Smithereens, I think your Kingmaker analysis is off. If I was kingmaker, I'd submit the D1 king effective sometime when I was asleep to aviod tracking. Right now, your analysis only helps scum.

Second, that's a hell of a faulty assumption and basically serves to frame me. Assassins don't murder people twnreading them.

[Smithereens]

@Smithereens, I think your Kingmaker analysis is off. If I was kingmaker, I'd submit the D1 king effective sometime when I was asleep to aviod tracking. Right now, your analysis only helps scum.

Second, that's a hell of a faulty assumption and basically serves to frame me. Assassins don't murder people twnreading them.

I believe my analysis is the most plausible explanation, and I'm aware you've told me to shut up about this before, which was a motivating factor in me bringing it up later on.

The assumption is a 'no miralces' appeal. If the kingmaker dies and the kingmaker was known to a few people, the death was either a 1/7 chance kill or more likely a 1/1 killing with specific knowledge. I don't really know if you're an assassin or not, so the best possible thing for me to do was ensure that if you are, you'd have to pick another target.

For all thoughts and intents, coincidence does not happen. I'm aware its perfectly possible that the kingmaker dies by chance Np1. Even then, by assuming that you knew who it was, we ensure that you killing the kingsmaker will result in a retaliation kill. Consequently, If you are an assassin, you can't act upon the information you have available. It's excellent for town, since information is rather lacking at this point. The downside to this approach is if in fact you're town, and then the kingsmaker dies by chance Np1, causing your mislynch. However, the risk is suitable for this situation. It's in your interests that the kingsmaker survives as long as possible, and if you're town and you don't want a mislynch, your objective shouldn't be your own survival so much as the kingsmker's survival.

Analysing outcomes, there are 9 players of who 2 are assassins, and there is a 2/9 chance you are an assassin. You know who the kingsmaker is, therefore there is a 2/9 chance that the kingsmaker will die tonight. Normally, there is a 1/6 chance for a kingsmaker death Np1, (assuming Dp1 mislynch) however the chance you are an assassin increase this by 1/6 + 2/9 = about 1/3. So you knowing who the kingsmaker is automatically increasing the chance that they die tonight. In the event that they do die, there is a 2/7 chance that any given player in this game is scum, however, for you it will be 1/3. I understand that probability is never a valid base for a lynch case, however given the lack of a suitable lynch pool, you automatically make the best target for a lynch in the event of a kignsmaker death on Np1. On the basis that we assume luck is not a reasonable defense.

Also, please explain what you mean by saying 'assassins don't murder people townreading them.' Is this you whispering the name of the Kingsmaker or something else entirely?

Just to reiterate, the only point of my saying all this is to reduce your ability to successfully kill the kingsmaker and get away with it, but it now occurs to me it doesn't really matter since we can always replace them. Anyhow, wasn't going to waste all that writing..

[texcat]

King Titus, when do you expect to make a decision?

[Titus]

@Smithereens, Assassins is the flavor name for scum. Scum don't murder people town reading them.

@texcat, As late as possible unless the game stalls.

[Firebringer]

Scum don't murder people town reading them.

Well now they might!
You added WIFOM TO IT!

[Titus]

Lols. FB, who would you like to see dead? What do you think of accountant?

[Firebringer]

Lols. FB, who would you like to see dead? What do you think of accountant?

I find Accountant is too aggro to be scum.
You would think she would cool it if she was, I mean thats what I would do.
Too much attention is not a good thing for scum.

Strong Town feel from her.

[Titus]

Lols. FB, who would you like to see dead? What do you think of accountant?

I find Accountant is too aggro to be scum.
You would think she would cool it if she was, I mean thats what I would do.
Too much attention is not a good thing for scum.

Strong Town feel from her.

Blah, I'm getting strong scum feels from her. You should know from loth that aggro is more personality than alignment indicative. If it's what you'd do why are you town reading it so much?

Attention is fine. Scum want to avoid negative attention.

My gut tells me you're town. Should I listen to it?

[Spiffeh]

My gut tells me you're town. Should I listen to it?

Seriously Titus what is the point of this question?

It looks like you're just trying to endear yourself to him.

Also I haven't read since I've last posted but so this and felt the need to call it out.

[Firebringer]

@Titus Well, how good you feel about your gut? You usually hammer your thoughts in. The fact you are more questioning seems diff about you.
You sound different than town you.

Forget you worried about me, I am worried about you now..

@Spiffeh No, I think Titus wants to look town. I understand now where you were getting worried.

[Titus]

@Titus Well, how good you feel about your gut? You usually hammer your thoughts in. The fact you are more questioning seems diff about you.
You sound different than town you.

Forget you worried about me, I am worried about you now..

@Spiffeh No, I think Titus wants to look town. I understand now where you were getting worried.

'Twas a test. I am pretty sure you're town since the start. I don't do "gut" reads too often. Town players (read you and Spiffeh) should be calling me out on that.

If you were scum, you'd take more of an ignorance or yelling type attitude imo.

[Firebringer]

Okay.......

[Spiffeh]

Idk I think Titus is still sketchy af

[Titus]

Idk I think Titus is still sketchy af

*shrug* right now, the game is best done by determining who isn't scum. FB, Spiffeh and smithereens aren't scum. Don't see scum swinging at me when I am the only one that can determine the lynch.

Doubly sure the Smithereens towntell is accurate since no one questioned it.

[Spiffeh]

Which town tell was that?

Maybe I should read this

[Titus]

Which town tell was that?

Maybe I should read this

The what's a PT tell. If smithereens was scum, I would expect scumfucks to either a) upsell it or b) discredit it to appear townie. By itself, it's strong town lean. The behavior of everyone else makes it neon sign level town.

[Titus]

Which town tell was that?

Maybe I should read this

P.s. Glad you dropped the soccerball. It was rather obvious.

[Spiffeh]

I have no idea what you're talking about

[Titus]

Post 93.

[Spiffeh]

Oh yeah idk how I missed that

[Titus]

Now take a look at context. Accountant nitpicks everyone but skips discussion of said town tell. She defends wanderer from softspoken which is interesting given her behavior with everyone else.