Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Trojan Horse]

Perhaps I made a bad choice of username too. Gotta live with it though.

Vote: Dr. Blackstrike

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, that scared me for a minute. You may want to change your signature, Dr. Blackstrike, just in case

[Trojan Horse]

Well now. I'm a tad surprised to log in this morning, and see all these posts having been made since my last one. This should be a good game.

To weigh in on what has been discussed; obviously, our top priority is lynching either culties or mafia. The one thing I don't want us to get hung up on is the "oh, this person claimed vanilla, he might be culted, lynch lynch" thing; I don't want the mafia to be able to claim power roles and get a free pass. We should lynch whoever seems likeliest to be a bad guy, whether they have claimed vanilla or not.

Then again, if a claimed vanilla seems cultish, then of course we should lynch them. Who knows; we may even hit the recruiter, and then we'll really be in good shape.

Vote Mastermind of Sin, get into the game man..

Hmm... lemme go see if MoS is posting elsewhere. Not like him to not get in a post on the first couple of pages...

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, MoS posted a bunch of times (in other games) yesterday evening. So he's definitely around.

[Trojan Horse]

Good. 'Cause you're not allowed to.

[Trojan Horse]

Ya know what?

Unvote: Dr. Blackstrike

Not sure I want to lynch a guy just for being slightly mistaken about what strategy we should use. My eye is still on him (so BEWARE ), but I'll give him a pass for now.

I had a thought: how on earth are we going to handle claims at the start of the game? Once we've reached a consensus on who is scummy, should we demand a claim from that person? If we do, and that person says "townie", we're in a bit of a pickle. It may well be best to lynch them; they may be lying, and even if they're not, it'll deny the cult a possible recruit.

Uh-oh. Am I agreeing with Dr. Blackstrike now?

The point is, we need to be careful about making roleclaims. They give info to both the mafia and the cult, but the cult can benefit more from those claims, apparently.

I teach a class in 3 min. Gotta run. If what I said isn't clear, I'll try to clarify later.

[Trojan Horse]

Good morning. Checking in, reading over the recent posts...

My apologies, MoS, on focusing on your lack of posting in this game. I guess it was more noticeable than the absence of acfan or theopor, since you're more well-known on this site (IMO). But anyway...

I am now realizing what I always realize when I play in the scumchat room; my scumdar is broken. I don't know about this bandwagon on Flameaxe; to me, he hasn't acted any scummier than anyone else. Then again, I don't know who else to go after.

*gives scumdar a good swift kick*

Maybe that will work...

[Trojan Horse]

Just wanted to give you all fair warning; my posting will be somewhat limited the next several days. (As if it wasn't already...) I just found out that I need to make the final formatting changes to my Ph.D. thesis within the next week. Otherwise, I will have to register for a class to continue, and I can't afford to pay for another class. (I'm not in serious trouble. I'll still be able to post once or twice a day, but that's it.)

Anyway, MoS is right about his random vote. I wouldn't consider that a mark against him.

My eye right now is on tyhess. I agree with pwayne, he has been acting "weird". Thing is, he just joined the forums, and he's been acting like the typical newbie so far. So is he just a newbie town, or a newbie scum? RRR... if he'd been here for a few weeks already, I'd probably be voting for him now. Not sure I can attack him for newbness though.

More thoughts later, if I have time.

[Trojan Horse]

Alright. I gotta get something going here. Let's see how he reacts...

Vote: tyhess

Take that, newbscum.

[Trojan Horse]

Still running the Ph.D. gauntlet. Still have a few days to go. I apologize for my lack of posting.

I looked at tyhess's latest posts. Still looks newbish, but not so scummy anymore. I'm satisfied with his answers for now.

Unvote tyhess

Gonna take a good look at flameaxe's posts next. If I agree with the bandwagon, I'll jump on; otherwise, I'll be back to square one.

[Trojan Horse]

So theo, you're basically saying pwayne is scum because he defended the Doctor, and whether the Doctor is scum or not, defending him is scummy? *shakes head*

If I had to vote one of your top two picks, theo (and I'm not sure I'd vote for either), I'd vote for the Doctor. At least he did something scummy: suggesting a strategy which wouldn't help the town. I haven't seen anything bad from pwayne yet.

[Trojan Horse]

Some quick thoughts, while I (surprisingly) have a few minutes to spare:

1. So far, tyhess has been on all of the major bandwagons except his own. Combine that with the fuss over not being able to edit his posts (which we aren't allowed to do), and tyhess has been acting like a major newb so far. Is that enough evidence, though, to lynch him? Unsure, but I know I'd really be kicking myself if I let him go and he turns out to be scum.

2. From what I gather, the earlier bandwagon on Dr. Blackstrike was simply due to his bad comment about strategy, and he hasn't done anything since to warrant an attack. As for Flameaxe, I still don't think there was much of a case against him either (don't repeat the arguments, vollkan; I read them already).

3.

vote:tyhess

He was acting scummy a few pages back, then he comes in and slaps a badwagon vote on theo, which is a crap wagon.

FOS:Oman

for started the theo case (which is crap) and this:

Scum-looking list includes: Flameaxe and Theo

Cult-looking list includes: CKD and tyhess (of course, it can only be one).

Don't try to differentiate from scum and cult. It's pointless, at least at this point.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it a scumtell to vote one person and simultaneously FOS another? 'Cause it could be a setup for two wrong lynches in a row?

RRR. I gotta go with my gut at this point.

Vote: tyhess

.

If there's anything else you want me to respond to, let me know. For now, it's back to the grindstone...

[Trojan Horse]

Took another look at theo's posts. I still don't like his case (and subsequent vote) against pwayne in that one long post. Thing is, the rest of his arguments seem reasonable. If he had ranked pwayne a little lower, I probably wouldn't have thought theo was scummy at all. But that one faulty argument caught my attention.

Basically, theo is in the "slightly scummy" camp, as far as I'm concerned. Not scummy enough for a vote yet.

[Trojan Horse]

Meanwhile, I can now come here more often than I have been. Thesis uploaded. So until they email me back with corrections I have to make, I have some spare time.

First, the major scummy mark on me: my pushing of tyhess, after he made mostly newbish (though not necessarily scummy) moves. I know, he could be newbtown just as well as he could be newbscum. I guess his bandwagon jumping just didn't sit well with me. My vote still stands, though; I have nothing better at the moment. I'll switch only if I get a good reason to.

Second, acfan has done something that's not easy; lurked more than I have. Also, there was this:

FOS:Oman

for started the theo case (which is crap) and this:

Scum-looking list includes: Flameaxe and Theo

Cult-looking list includes: CKD and tyhess (of course, it can only be one).

Don't try to differentiate from scum and cult. It's pointless, at least at this point.

Weak argument against Oman. I don't get it at all. Heh... now I've got my eye on the guy that's voting the same way I am.

Third, I'll next take a look at this whole MoS/Oman thing. I'll comment on that once I've had a better look.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, since White wants us to post our scumdars, that's what I'll do. Feel free to question me for anything I say (there might be some things I've overlooked):

Mastermind of Sin:

So far, seems to have been playing exactly as per form, except for the fact that he didn't jump in until some time had passed. Unusual for a veteran like him, but perhaps he just forgot about this game.

Oman:

Okay, I finally took a closer look at the "duel" between MoS and Oman a few pages back. So, Oman was suspicious of flameaxe and theo, while MoS was not so suspicious of them, and that set Oman off. Or something like that. (I'm a bit more confused about it now than I was before I read it.) That "duel" didn't make either of them seem more or less scummy to me.

ac1983fan:

Hard to pick up on scumtells when there are so few posts to analyze. Perhaps a "come on now, talk" vote is in order. I'll think about it.

vollkan:

Seems to be the most reasonable player so far. I really hope he's not scum.

Dr. Blackstrike:

Dare I say it, his game has been the most similar to mine so far, outside of that faulty strategy comment at the start. An occasional post to say that he hasn't picked up on much yet, but that he's still looking. Guess I'd be the uber-hypocrite if I attacked him for that.

curiouskarmadog:

Middle of the road. Haven't picked up on anything unusual yet.

pwayne66:

Was one of those that helped disarm the early bandwagon on Dr. Blackstrike, and rightfully so. Then again, if the Doctor does turn up scum, this will be a mark on pwayne. Just something to file in the memory banks for later.

If I was really cruel, I'd pull out an LAL vote for pwayne, since he said he wouldn't post all weekend, then proceeded to post.

tyhess:

Still the newb, and still my vote, though I give him a slightly lower scumdar rating now than I did before. I'm open to alternatives.

Flameaxe:

Was subject to an early bandwagon. I didn't quite buy the reasons for it at the time, and I still don't. Oy vey... I'm starting to realize that I've put most people into the "possibly scummy, but no hard evidence, I dunno" category, including Flameaxe. I gotta kick this scumdar again.

White (r. Rump-Wat):

Man. He's posting way differently as White than he did as Rump-Wat. Maybe he got recruited during the day?

Seriously though, White has a much better scumdar than I do if MoS turns out to be scum. I really don't want to jump on that bandwagon, considering MoS seems to be playing as usual. But I can't fault White for applying a little pressure.

(By the way, White, I'm only a newb when in comes to forum games. I've been "making my lettuce" in chatroom games.)

theopor_COD:

An early lurker, but a solid contributer since.

So, who's at the top of my list? Tyhess, barely. I guess acfan would be up there as well, simply because he's said so little... but if he starts talking, he'll probably move down my list. And after that... RRR. I don't know! I've gotta find some other candidate. I'll keep looking things over.

[Trojan Horse]

Ok, so would you say Tyhess is acting more like mafia or cultist?

Hard to say. Mafia, I guess.

What do you think of MoS's deliberate refusal to help the town find scum?

Hmm... you mean because he hasn't really gone after anyone yet, and didn't post a full breakdown of his opinions? Hmm... maybe I better do a little research. I'll go see if this is normal for him at this early stage.

This all seems very nicey nicey. Everyone kinda seems nice.

I realized that as I was typing it out. I'll keep an eye out for more definitive evidence, but I'm struggling at this point.

[Trojan Horse]

Here I was, all set to get up in the morning and get to responding to things, and I find out that you folks talked all night. So much to catch up on.

First of all,

unvote

until this thing with acfan is settled. If he gets in here and starts posting, or if he's replaced, then fine. But it could always be that he did pick up the prod, and he told the mod he's lurking on purpose. (Too crazy a thought?) If more days pass and still nothing happens at all, perhaps we should lynch him and be done with it.

Second of all, as I said I would do, I did a little research into the playstyle of our resident veteran, MoS. (Sorry, MoS. That's what happens when you play so many games; you get scrutinized for everything you do.) I looked at other current games he's playing; usually, he found someone scummy to go after very early in those games. Not here. I know, he just started going after tyhess, but it took a while to get to that point.

...

I'm ashamed to say it, but our veteran has just gone up my scum list ever so slightly. No vote yet, but I'll be keeping my eye on MoS.

(OK, MoS. You may attack me back, now. )

[Trojan Horse]

acfan - lurking
CKD - said he expected me to act different if I was scum, but left himself the opening to switch opinions without anything momentous happening first
Dr. Blackstrike - has ignored conversation about me completely

FoS: Dr. Blackstrike

Flameaxe - says I'm not helping much, but doesn't really offer an analysis on me, just reiterates actions I've taken
Oman - attacking me
pwayne - attacking me
theo - defending me
Trojan Horse - defending me
tyhess - attacking me on crappy reasoning over stuff that's not even relevant to the game
vollkan - agreed with me a lot and defended me a bit, somehow managed to put me at his #3 suspicion when he "doesn't feel strongly about MoS"
White - attacking me

I just want to point out that I think MoS is acting a bit more conservatively than normal for him, and it bothers me. Theo may soon be the only one defending you, MoS.

[Trojan Horse]

3 days since last post from acfan. 7 days since last post with any substance from acfan. Tick tick.

I eagerly await theo's next post, as he completes his breakdown of all the players. Hope he doesn't think I'm too scummy.

[Trojan Horse]

Trojan Horse wrote:
3 days since last post from acfan. 7 days since last post with any substance from acfan. Tick tick.

I eagerly await theo's next post, as he completes his breakdown of all the players. Hope he doesn't think I'm too scummy.


Unvote, Vote: Trojan Horse

This feels way off to me. You hope he doesn't think you're "too" scummy? I see no reason to make a post like this. You've made posts like this earlier, asking me if I was going to attack you now, or something like that. You keep acting like you expect to be scummy, you expect to get heat from other players. It's almost as if you expect to be lynched. Other than these remarks, you haven't seemed that scummy, so I don't see any reason a protown player would be worried about their scumminess. You haven't done anything of note for a townie to worry about.

Oh man. There was supposed to be a smiley at the end of that post. That comment was in jest.

[Trojan Horse]

The above quote was from MoS, of course. Forgot to mention that.

[Trojan Horse]

RRR.

Vote: MoS

. This is not about his latest vote on me; I guess I deserved that, after I made my "hope theo doesn't think I'm scum" comment without tacking on a smiley. This is about my gut feelings about him being scum.

I've been sitting around without voting for too long. It's time for me to (at least temporarily) commit.

[Trojan Horse]

As far as the claiming before lynch thing, MoS, remember that this is a different kind of game. If you're a plain townie, then your claiming that doesn't do us any good, as has been discussed. We'd really have no choice but to lynch you at that point; from our point of view, either we'd then be down one scum, or we'd deny the cult an easy recruit. And if you are a protown power role... well, I'm sure you would come forward right before your lynch and make the claim, regardless of whether we asked for it. So I didn't think of pushing for a claim.

Anyway,

Unvote

for now so I can think, and also to give our replacement for acfan some time to weigh in.

Finally, what's this about -1? I never saw more than 5 votes on MoS at any one time. Did I miscount?

[Trojan Horse]

Trojan, are we to believe you don't think MoS is scum other than for that one post preceding your vote? Because you unvoted saying that your concern was dealt with. The point made above your vote was sketchy at best.

That one post preceding my vote made no difference to me, one way or the other. My vote was based on some very weak evidence (only for lack of anything stronger); it took quite a bit of time for MoS to start honing in on a potential suspect. Longer than I thought he'd take, if he were protown (based on some earlier games I found). I unvoted to give things some more thought; my concerns, weak as they were, were not "dealt with". I'll put the vote back on MoS if I can't find any better alternatives.

But I'm not going to vote at all until acfan is replaced. I want the replacement to read up and weigh in.

Is there anything else I need to respond to? I'm sure I missed something in all these posts.

[Trojan Horse]

Where is theo, anyway? I'm still waiting for him to finish breaking down who he thinks is scummy.

Incidentally; this game seems to have temporarily devolved into MoS versus pwayne and White, with everyone else (including myself) taking a back seat. If one of those three is scum, I wouldn't mind this so much. But it's bad news if all three bad guys are just sitting back and watching the town rip itself to shreds.

I'll be home most of the day tomorrow, lesson-planning and cleaning house. I'll be sure to take time for at least a few posts.

[Trojan Horse]

Gut feeling should come first.

In fact no-one should need to vote based on "gut" this far into it. There should be something that smells fishy.

You want fishy, eh? Okay. Lemme look at each person, and see if I can find things that look fishy. (It'll be good for me too, considering my last breakdown of the players was mostly about how townish everyone looks.)

Mastermind of Sin

: As I said before, took a while before honing in on a suspect. A bit longer than I thought he would take.

Oman

: Pushing me into making this post.

ac1983fan

: Nothing beyond his total absence. I'll have to wait until he is replaced.

vollkan

: Seems to have more interest in the game than anyone else. Maybe he's so interested because he's scum? (Weak, I know.)

Dr. Blackstrike

: There was his strategy suggestion at the start, of course. But now there's something bigger: somehow, he keeps finding time to make posts, but not to make posts with any content to them. Doing just barely enough to avoid modkills and suspicion, perhaps?

curiouskarmadog

: Can't find anything yet.

pwayne66

: Defused the early bandwagon on Dr. Blackstrike. Could be townie behavior; could be he just didn't think the Doc was scummy. Or it could be he was defending a scummate.

tyhess

: The bandwagon hopping is the most suspicious thing.

Flameaxe

: Not posting since Monday, despite early contributions.

White

: Being willing to replace into a silly game like this. Seriously though, nothing looks fishy at all.

theopor_COD

: The unwarranted attack on pwayne early on, back when pwayne was defusing the early bandwagon on Dr. Blackstrike. Does that contradict what I said about pwayne? I guess it does.

And finally, can't let myself off the hook:

Trojan Horse

: Being swayed easily by other people's arguments. Are they really changing my mind, or am I scum trying to avoid suspicion?

[Trojan Horse]

*BUMP*, to get this thread back above the threads that MeMe just locked.

Mod, how's the search for a replacement for acfan coming?

[Trojan Horse]

Definitely, we need to give it a shot and lynch someone. A no lynch is bad news.

More meaningful thoughts to come tonight.

[Trojan Horse]

Perhaps I should have said "An attempt at more meaningful thoughts" to come tonight. Cause I looked over the posts since I made my last major post, looking for more things to go on... and I didn't find much.

I am glad Flameaxe is back, and that he had a legitimate reason for his absence. And I'm DEFINITELY glad acfan finally got replaced. Two more minds will help solve this problem (I hope).

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that nearly everyone has been accused of possibly being scum for one reason or another. Either because of absence (acfan, Flameaxe, Dr. Blackstrike) or extreme newbishness (tyhess) or of trying to lead the conversation too much (vollkan, White), or for some other reason. But one person seems to have avoided all suspicion for any reason: curiouskarmadog. My point? Well, uh... not sure I have one, but... uh... just seemed strange I couldn't find anything against him... uh...

Okay, I guess I lied. This was definitely not meaningful. Sorry.

[Trojan Horse]

So now if I say I do want the deadline extension, you'll just say that I said that to avoid suspicion, and you'll lynch me on the spot.



I have no problems with a deadline extension, especially with two replacements just coming in. We definitely need to hear what they have to say.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, I've got a few free moments at work here. Time for some more thoughts.

Not so happy with theo's latest post.

Trojan Horse is another guy who's slowly pricking my senses, reading his posts a lot of them seem to be fence sitting, he'll vote someone and then unvote. No real hardcore feelings almost as if he's in the know and is happy to play along with whatever's going down.

This comment is okay. The reason why you haven't seen any hardcore feelings from me yet is because... well... I sadly don't have any yet. You can take a good look at my posts where I listed my thoughts on each player; if it looks like I'm grasping at straws, it's because I am. At the moment I'm looking at either lynching MoS for being a bit too conservative at the start, or lynching tyhess for too much bandwagon hopping. If you've noticed anything more meaningful against anyone, please let me know.

It's theo's other comment I don't like.

My opinion of ac1983/replacement hasn't changed. I still think AC's post back yonder and subsequent dissapearance is the biggest scum beacon out there, his replacement seems to be working through giving everyone a minor fos but I don't really see the same zest as when say White replaced in or compare it to Tar's introduction. Tar came in straight away slung a vote on . . . which to me indicates he's not bothered about attraction. Kakeng seems overly cautious mind maybe I should let him finish his read-through.

It's not a scum beacon at all. I was keeping an eye on him before he got replaced, since it was possible that he was paying attention and lurking on purpose (and keeping the mod informed of that). But since he got replaced, you can't conclude anything about him, other than RL got in the way somehow. As for Kakeng, his first "breakdown" post seems reasonable for a replacement. I don't think he's any more or less scummy than anyone else at the moment.

[Trojan Horse]

The reason why you haven't seen any hardcore feelings from me yet is because... well... I sadly don't have any yet.

That right there sounds scummy. As town you should definitely have opinions on a game that is

27

pages in. There is no excuse.

FoS: TH

I said I had no HARDCORE feelings. I didn't say I had no opinions. I've had plenty of them- check my earlier posts- but none of them have given me confidence that anyone is scum. If I don't find something better to go on, I'll have to vote for MoS or tyhess based on weak evidence. Give me something better to go on, if you have it.

Oh, and theo... lemme go see what acfan said before he got replaced. I'll go see what you're talking about.

[Trojan Horse]

Main scummy post - avoids the Theo wagon, say's its a crap wagon . . . why eh? why does he think it was a crap wagon.

vote:tyhess
He was acting scummy a few pages back, then he comes in and slaps a badwagon vote on theo, which is a crap wagon.
FOS:Oman for started the theo case (which is crap) and this:
Quote:

Scum-looking list includes: Flameaxe and Theo

Cult-looking list includes: CKD and tyhess (of course, it can only be one).


Don't try to differentiate from scum and cult. It's pointless, at least at this point.

Gets questioned over it, now maybe I'm being harsh but I cannot believe he didn't notice ppl asked the question of him, I think he simply didn't have an answer, next post was one implying he'd forgotten.

I went back and looked at where acfan was questioned about this post. Perhaps I should've done that sooner; for a while, I was just looking at acfan's posts (using the "show acfan's posts" option) without looking at each one in context. Okay. Now I see why you're suspicious of acfan and his replacement. He made this comment, then was questioned about it, then vanished. Hmm...

Okay. I'll raise acfan/Kakeng's scummy level a notch. But just a notch.

[Trojan Horse]

It means I now understand why theo was suspicious of acfan. Acfan vanished after being questioned about one of his posts; perhaps he was scum and didn't want to continue after being caught.

I'm agreeing that the timing of acfan's disappearance makes him slightly scummy. But only slightly. If I'm content with how Kakeng acts (and so far I am), I won't worry about acfan's disappearance anymore.

That clear enough?

[Trojan Horse]

Alright then MoS, I'll commit. Not happy about it, but I'll commit.

Vote tyhess

Never was happy with all of his bandwagon hopping at the start of the game. Could just be newbishness, but it could also be an opportunistic scum, hiding behind the fact that he's a newb.

Sure hope I got it right.

[Trojan Horse]

About to leave work. I'll take a closer look when I'm on my home computer, White.

[Trojan Horse]

699 is horrible.

unvote, vote Trojan Horse

Horrible how? Cause I was pressured into voting, like White said? Or because I didn't commit until now?

Regardless, I'm in a d***ed if I do, d***ed if I don't situation right now. MoS votes me for not voting for anyone, and White votes me for being pressured into voting. What do you people want?

Anyway, you're absolutely right, White. I guess that was just a frustrating moment for me; I'm getting a bit tired of having to waffle because I don't feel too strongly about anyone as of yet. But that's no reason to be pressured into a premature vote; we still have plenty of time to discuss.

Unvote

Uh-oh. I've just been pressured into unvoting. Now what'll I do?

I'll take a look at the Flameaxe/White thing now. I will point out one thing though; tyhess has now jumped onto yet ANOTHER new bandwagon. This is the same thing he kept doing earlier in the game. Opportunistic much? But then again, it's natural to vote me after I voted him. I'll have to think about how much scummier (if at all) this makes him.

[Trojan Horse]

As I said before (though I doubt I could find the post), that comment was a joke, theo. I meant to put a smiley on the end; just forgot to.

Okay, looked over Flameaxe/White. You know what? I'm sure the scum were sitting back and laughing there for a minute, glad that the heat was off them for a while. This whole thing started off with Flameaxe saying that his schedule had gotten in the way of a deep analysis; something I can certainly sympathize with, given what I have on my plate right now. It looks like White just saw an opportunity to apply a little pressure to Flameaxe and look for scumtells. And then Flameaxe responded in kind. Natural mafia play. Null tells from both.

[Trojan Horse]

Horrible how? Cause I was pressured into voting, like White said? Or because I didn't commit until now?

Regardless, I'm in a d***ed if I do, d***ed if I don't situation right now. MoS votes me for not voting for anyone, and White votes me for being pressured into voting. What do you people want? Wink

So this is all about saving yourself?

Apparently my jokes are taken seriously even when I DO attach a smiley on the end. That's it. I gotta stop making jokes.

Of course it's not about saving myself. The goal is to find and lynch scum. Tyhess is really the top person on my list. If you have something better, let me know. Thing is, I've been annoyed myself that I haven't been able to pick up on any major scumtells yet. I guess I was in a position where I could be pushed into a premature vote. No excuse, I know, but that's the way it is.

As for just explaining why my vote was legitimate; it's nothing you've haven't heard already. Bandwagon hopping and excessive newbish behavior. Weak, I know.

[Trojan Horse]

Just a note to say that I checked the thread once again, and that I'm signing off for the night. I'm tired, and I'm in no state of mind to respond to more arguments right now. It'll have to wait.

[Trojan Horse]

Another post, to *bump* this thread up and to restart the attack against me.

Let me give you the sum total of my thoughts right now. I actually have 4 suspects in mind right now, and I would find it tough to vote for anyone else. In approximate order of scumminess:

tyhess: I know, I know, he's an easy target. But easy targets can be scum too. I think all his opportunistic bandwagon hopping is too much, even for a newb. If there had been a night round at the start, I wouldn't be as concerned. I would think tyhess is newbtown, since I would assume any newbscum would be cautioned by more experienced scummates not to stand out in the crowd. But we started with day. Could be tyhess is newbscum, and hasn't been forewarned.

MoS: It's still about how long it took for him to focus on a suspect at the start. Not something I would attack most players for, but this is MoS after all. Incidentally, if he is scum, that would've been a brilliant move on his part: pushing me into voting, knowing that everyone else would jump on me for it. But it's his behavior early in the game that I'm mostly concerned about.

curiouskarmadog: If you want to attack me for "flying under the radar" (as someone said), why aren't you attacking this guy too? We're in the same boat.

White: This would be my final option. He's been taking control since he replaced in, putting pressure on several people in turn. Scummy? Not in and of itself. That's what players do: look for scumtells. But is this his usual style of play? As I did with MoS, I'm going to take a quick look at some other games he's in and see if he's doing the same thing. If he is, fine. If not, I'll give him the eye of suspicion.

I see nothing in anyone else worth lynching over. You'd have quite a time trying to convince me to lynch someone other than these four.

Now to see if I can reduce these four to one.

[Trojan Horse]

How long did it take me to put that list together? Not long. I rallied my thoughts this morning from what I remembered, and that's what I came up with. Yeah, forgot about acfan/Kakeng there. It was an awfully small notch. Put him on at the same level as White: I expect that I'll be satisfied with Kakeng's behavior, and that will be that.

[Trojan Horse]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that nearly everyone has been accused of possibly being scum for one reason or another. Either because of absence (acfan, Flameaxe, Dr. Blackstrike) or extreme newbishness (tyhess) or of trying to lead the conversation too much (vollkan, White), or for some other reason. But one person seems to have avoided all suspicion for any reason: curiouskarmadog. My point? Well, uh... not sure I have one, but... uh... just seemed strange I couldn't find anything against him... uh...

That was my post a while back, CKD. I had gotten less of a read on you than on anyone else at that point- which is tough, considering I have a hard time getting reads anyway- and I'd found it "curious" that you'd avoided all suspicion up to that point. That's all. I'd say tyhess and MoS are better choices; I'm not going to launch a full attack against you.

Theo, if you think my list of 4 were all protown, who do you think is scum? I'm pretty sure I know the answer, but I'd like to hear where you stand.

[Trojan Horse]

That join date is very deceptive, White. This is my first forum game at mafiascum. (I'm also participating in Pie's Screw the Players game; possibly as an /inny, possibly as an /outty.) My earlier experience of online mafia consists of two forum games at the Grey Labyrinth (both of which were aborted due to inactivity of other players) and plenty of games in the scumchat room. But as far as forum games go here, I've been a lurker for all that time.

I don't have confidence that acfan/Kakeng is protown. I don't know if he is or not. The only thing that makes him scummier than the average player is the fact that acfan disappeared immediately after being questioned. So? That's a slight mark, but only a slight one. Come on, RL can strike at any time.

Tell ya what. Let's get Kakeng's opinion of all this. Surely if we are scummates (as theo thinks), his words will just dig the both of us deeper.

I'll look over those links now, White. Should be enough to satisfy me.

[Trojan Horse]

Satisfied. Not going after White.

[Trojan Horse]

You know what? I'm an idiot. Why am I believing this "acfan vanished right when he was attacked, he's probably scum" thing? I did a bit of digging and noticed that he was also playing in Animal Crossing Mafia and modding a mini game when he vanished. Does it make any sense that he was so unhappy about being caught as scum in our game that he would abandon every other game he was involved in? (Might I point out, his last post was in our game.)

That's it. I don't care if I look scummy for saying this, but I don't think acfan/Kakeng is any scummier than the average player. That could change later (just as it could for anyone else), but he's not on my list right now. I'm still eyeing MoS and tyhess, with CKD a weak (and unlikely) 3rd choice.

[Trojan Horse]

*awaits*

[Trojan Horse]

Trojan Horse, the point is, there is no logical reason for you to not suspect anyone right now. I don't want you to vote for the sake of voting, which is what you just did. I want you to vote someone because you think they are scum. You can't just not think anyone is scum, because that's obviously wrong. There is plenty of material for you to go over and find someone you think is scum.

*shrug*

That's about the point I'm at in this game so far. I could make an argument for just about anyone in the game to be scum for some convoluted reason or another. I'd like to lynch White or Tyhess out of sheer annoyance, but I can't tell whether stupidity or anti-town alignment is driving their actions this game.

No excuse, MoS! Plenty of material, MoS! Plenty of material to look over and find someone you think is scum. That's what you said, right?

[Trojan Horse]

Incidentally, that was NOT an attack on MoS. That was just an attempt at humor; hence the laughing smiley at the end. (I say this because my attempts at humor have been taken seriously- and as evidence of my scumminess- before.)

[Trojan Horse]

Also, keep in mind that a lot of players consider joking to be a scum tell.

Noted. *mutters to self*

[Trojan Horse]

FIRST POST OF OCTOBER FTW

Where is Tar anyway? No posts for 6 days. Not much of a replacement.

[Trojan Horse]

Ah, I see. Ok.

[Trojan Horse]

Tar had limited access for a few days (or so he claimed in the V/LA thread). But he's back now, and posting in his other games. I assume he just needs to be prodded.

Mod, prod Tar

Mod Edit: done.

If the prod doesn't do the trick, then I'm willing to vote for him. But I'll wait until the mod has had a chance to track him down.

[Trojan Horse]

Well pwayne, at least your #2 and #3 are the same as my #1 and #2.

You've got until Wednesday night, Tar. Then talk, or else!

Not sure how to react to Kakeng's latest post. Had he been in the game from the start- not a replacement- I wouldn't think anything of it. RL struck, big deal. But this is the guy that replaced acfan. I can't help but wonder about that. Then again, at least Kakeng has given us a reasonable reason for absence; can't say the same about acfan.

[Trojan Horse]

Saying you've been so busy defending yourself that you couldn't hunt scum is a lie. Stop lying MoS.

Well, I wasn't really hunting scum when I was being attacked, either. Then again, I guess I wasn't doing much better when I WASN'T being attacked.

Anyway, I'm more concerned about MoS's lower than usual level of scumhunting

before

he was attacked (as I've said before); what he said

while

he was attacked didn't seem scummy to me.

[Trojan Horse]

Whoa, MoS posts twice while I'm posting. Lemme quickly look over what he said...

[Trojan Horse]

Okay. I'm also confused by tyhess's comments. Definitely don't think MoS was setting a "trap" there.

Careful, tyhess. I've been attacked big time (and possibly deservedly so) for making jokes, and the same could happen to you. Then again, if you really are scum, feel free to look as scummy as you want

[Trojan Horse]

I'm with you, White. Anyway, if I'm still clueless by then, two more days won't help me any.

[Trojan Horse]

Ahem. You're going to attack me for my random vote on Dr. Blackstrike? Which was at the start of the game, and was the first vote against him?

*shakes head*

[Trojan Horse]

Yeah, we've already discussed how much bandwagon hopping tyhess did earlier. The question is whether that's worth lynching him over, or whether we should just consider that newbish behavior. I personally think it was a bit too crazy, even for a newb; but I know that some disagreed with me on that.

[Trojan Horse]

Man. You just had to give me another thing to think about, CKD. Tar definitely hasn't been a very helpful replacement yet. (Hmm. Perhaps Kakeng deserves a look for the same reason.) Do we want to do a lurker-lynch? I'm tempted.

Kakeng said he'd post today. I'm not hopeful that will actually happen, but I'll give him a chance.

Oh, and MoS: if you're so annoyed at having to play with 11 newbs like us, we could always put you out of your misery. (No smiley attached to this comment. I'm seriously considering voting for him... though for reasons of scumminess, of course.)

[Trojan Horse]

Indeed. Please do, Kakeng.

And I'm not sure whether MoS's "correction" to my post gets a smile or a groan from me. I even explicity said "no smilies", and he jokingly tacks one on anyway. I guess I'm gonna get this for the rest of the game.

[Trojan Horse]

*bump*

I'm sure Kakeng isn't taking any exams over the weekend. Come on, Kakeng. If you do have more things to say (as you've implied you do) then say them. We're running out of time.

[Trojan Horse]

Obviously Oman didn't read every last line. Can't say I blame him.

You know what? I know it looks scummy to go after a lurker (lurkers are very easy targets to go after), but I feel like doing it anyway. The last thing I want is for the scummies to think that they can sit around and do nothing, and just make excuses for why they are absent, and avoid being lynched that way. Kakeng and Tar have just as much chance of being scum as anyone else, and it may well be worth getting rid of one of them.

No vote yet though. I'm giving them one final chance to show up and speak up. If they don't, it might be "lynch lynch" for them.

[Trojan Horse]

Mod, prod Kakeng and Tar

before we run out of time.

[Trojan Horse]

I noticed you've "gotten into" the other games that you're in, Tar. What's wrong with this one? (Do I smell? )

Kakeng: First of all, we have 4 days, not 5. Second, we agreed we'd try to get things taken care of by the 10th, so we have a couple of days in hand for emergencies. And third, even if we did have 5 days, you should have made a post continuing your thoughts by now.

If I don't see something good by tomorrow, down comes my vote.

[Trojan Horse]

Say what?

Was that a serious claim to be a plain vanilla townie, Tar?

RRR...

[Trojan Horse]

Oh, I believe you may have forgotten that this is Cult Mafia, Tar. I also believe that you may be scum, and pulled the same stunt you pulled in Mafia 68 to make yourself look like town. It's a definite possibility.

FoS Tar
FoS Kakeng

I'll try to settle on one or the other before this day (this RL day) is over. (Man, and I said it would take something major to sway me from MoS and tyhess. This is major, alright.)

[Trojan Horse]

Yeah, I think we have no choice but to lynch Tar now. But since he is now at 4 votes, I'll wait a bit for any competing opinions before I put Tar at -2.

[Trojan Horse]

Tar's definitely not a confirmed townie, and that's a possible 3rd advantage to lynching him (in addition to the two vollkan mentioned). He may be a baddie already. Very possible he's acting up like he did in that other game, so as to look like a vanilla townie (though his last post, where he said we should lynch him instead of Kakeng, would've been extremely bold).

I don't think Pwayne deserves a FOS for pushing for a Tar lynch- it's reasonable, in my opinion- but this discussion has given me doubts about Tar being the best lynch. Perhaps it should be Kakeng after all. There is a reasonable chance that Tar is vanilla townie, and perhaps we should let the scum sweat over whether to kill him, and let the cultie sweat over whether to recruit him.

RRR... I'll put on the 3rd vote.

Vote: Kakeng

[Trojan Horse]

Finally got a chance to weigh in. First of all:

Ok, post your thoughts on everyone. Ie. White has been very helpful and cooperative. He's been very analytical and done a great job scumhunting. My guess would be that's he's town.

I assume that was directed at Pwayne, but allow me to give my opinion on White as well. White has been very helpful and cooperative. He's been very analytical and done a great job scumhunting. My guess would be that either he's town, or that he's scum trying very hard to look like town. Could be either.

How's that?

Second of all; Pwayne may have it right on me. I guess I am wishy-washy, and an impressionable protowner.

However, I'm not so impressionable as to jump on this Pwayne bandwagon. Why are we going after him for trying to follow through on the strategy we agreed on at the start? I agree that lynching Tar now simply to deny the cult a recruit (which in fact may not prevent a recruiting tonight) is a bad idea. But so what? There doesn't seem to be any more (or less) case for Pwayne now than there was on Dr. Blackstrike before.

Also, do we really want to give Kakeng a free ride here? Kakeng may well be scum, and may have concluded that his best chance of staying alive was to act like the uber-lurker. I don't want the scum to conclude that they can win by lurking. Do we want to give the scum a free ride like that? And as for the point that we won't learn anything about anyone else by lynching Kakeng; well, we'll at least have the list of people who voted for him, and the list of those that didn't. We might be able to get something out of that.

Now, the one thing I don't want here is a no lynch. Pwayne is of average scumminess to me right now (but no worse). So if you guys are really bent on lynching him, I'll (reluctantly) join in; better to take a shot and lynch him than to have a no lynch. But I hope it doesn't come to that. Kakeng is the better choice, IMO.

[Trojan Horse]

Just got up. Good morning.

Whoa boy. Kakeng claims RB? Now I don't know what to think. In fact, I'm not even sure that I believe him. Even if he is a roleblocker, he could still be scum.

The current bandwagon is Flameaxe now? Never saw anything all that scummy from him. Like Tar, I better look over Flameaxe's posts. (Again, there's a good chance I'll join in simply because lynch is better than no lynch.)

[Trojan Horse]

Another newbish comment from tyhess. More grounds for lynching? Perhaps. I'd certainly prefer to lynch tyhess than Flameaxe.

Unvote, Vote tyhess

Note: I'm prepared to switch to Flameaxe at the last minute, if that's what it takes to avoid a no lynch. Better to lynch someone of average scumminess than to lynch no one.

[Trojan Horse]

Tyhess's latest comment (on it being bad to ask for a claim from Kakeng before lynching) could just be a sign of newbishness, or a sign of scumminess. On the newbish side; could just have been confusion over what we talked about with Dr. Blackstrike. (We mentioned the difficulties we could have after someone claims vanilla townie. That doesn't mean it's bad to ask for a claim BEFORE a lynch.) On the scummy side... well, not wanting to have a claim before a lynch is scummy.

My number one choice is still Kakeng... could very well be mafia RBer. But I'd resigned myself to the fact that he won't be lynched now... not enough time left... so I picked tyhess over Flameaxe for preference.

[Trojan Horse]

Whoa. Simulpost FTW. Maybe there's still a chance after all.

Unvote, Vote Kakeng

Now that's more like it.

[Trojan Horse]

Obviously a vig; the mod's post which gave the setup (at the start) mentions only the cult, the mafia, and the town. That seems to preclude the possibility of an SK.

I don't know if the vig shot the cult leader and the mafia shot the townie, or if it was the other way around. But either way, this is quite a relief. I like our chances now. (And no more need to play "uh-oh, he claimed townie, he might be recruited" from here on out.)

Too tired to do any analysis right now. I'll see what I can do tomorrow.

[Trojan Horse]

I really hope the cop (if we have one) did investigate me.

Funny; I was hoping he investigated

me

.

[Trojan Horse]

As far as danger goes, I think this is quite interesting. If it got down to something like 3:0:1 (which would be LYLO with a SK) then it wouldn't actually be LYLO. A mislynch would make it 2:0:1. Another mislynch causes a 1:0:1 draw.

I thought it was customary for the cult to win if it got down to a single townie and a single cultie.

Mod:

is that the case in this game?

[Trojan Horse]

Whoa... thought I heard the ghost of White there. But nah. White's dead, and there's no such thing as ghosts.

[Trojan Horse]

Time to reply to a particular post by pwayne:

On the newbish side; could just have been confusion over what we talked about with Dr. Blackstrike. (We mentioned the difficulties we could have after someone claims vanilla townie. That doesn't mean it's bad to ask for a claim BEFORE a lynch.) On the scummy side... well, not wanting to have a claim before a lynch is scummy.

Once we've reached a consensus on who is scummy, should we demand a claim from that person? If we do, and that person says "townie", we're in a bit of a pickle. It may well be best to lynch them; they may be lying, and even if they're not, it'll deny the cult a possible recruit... The point is, we need to be careful about making roleclaims. They give info to both the mafia and the cult, but the cult can benefit more from those claims, apparently.

Heh. Forgot all about that post. I guess my arguments at that point (#65) were as newbish as tyhess's were later. Okay then. No more pushing tyhess for being newbish. He's probably as newb-town as I am.

I said at the end of day 1 that I didn't understand the Flameaxe bandwagon; I considered Kakeng and tyhess to both be better targets. Well, I finally have a reason to be suspicious of Flameaxe; one that didn't arise until the end of the day, too late for me to respond to it. We were all scrambling to find someone to lynch (way better to take a shot then to no lynch), but Flameaxe seemed content to just sit back and let us fight. Maybe he didn't care if we ended up with a no lynch?

So now my eye is on MoS for holding back a bit at the start of day 1, and on Flameaxe for holding back at the end of day 1. And that's about all I've got.

*sets up a spotlight*

Go ahead. Give me the 3rd degree.

[Trojan Horse]

Didn't phrase that so well, I guess. I'm just saying a protown player should be more concerned about what happens in those final hours than Flameaxe appeared to be. He could've been confident that the town was going to do the wrong thing anyway (either through a mislynch or a no lynch), so why rock the boat.

Then again, Flameaxe was one of the bandwagons at the end, wasn't he? So he should've had some concern if he WAS scum. Man, now I'm talking myself out of my reasoning.

I went to bed the night before we went to night, planning on posting the next morning, but woke to a self hammer by Kakeng. Quite simple bodily processes.

Heh. Fair enough.

[Trojan Horse]

Probably just noticed a few of us saying things against Flameaxe, and decided to go with the crowd.

[Trojan Horse]

I don't think Tar's the lynch here. Let's go back to his antics at the end of day 1:

Oh, what the heck. It's time to pull the patented Tarhalindur solution to an impending deadline as vanilla town.

Unvote, Vote: Tarhalindur

I KEEL ME!

I'm known to do silly/stupid things when I get peeved/bored with a game, especially with a deadline and/or pressure.

Unvote

Now... was I psyching you out, or was I telling the truth?

Two posts separated by just 30 minutes. At the time, I thought he could very well be scum; he'd pulled this stunt in a different game as a vanilla townie, and he could've just been trying to look like a townie again.

But the next day, with a Tar lynch looking like a strong possibility, we got this:

Unvote, Vote: Tar

Seriously, it's better than lynching Kakeng. He might be Cult-immune, I'm not.

Well now. If he is scum, he's a lot bolder than I could ever be. Personally, I don't think that's likely; I now think Tar is a vanilla townie.

Or at least he WAS, at the end of day 1. Whether he is NOW is a whole other question, and we could WIFOM all day about whether CKD would actually recruit Tar. Thing is, I think we should forget about the WIFOMing for now and look for the mafia. Who knows? Perhaps the game will end once we've lynched both scum, and we won't have to argue over whether Tar is a cultie at all.

Tar's not the play, IMO.

[Trojan Horse]

Oman from a re-read bugs me a lot, yet if we have a cult about can they still recruit if so they are still a big problem and if they can then the likes of Tar are likely cultists.

They can't still recruit. If someone was recruited last night, they are now on their own. Mod clarified that already.

I don't like this either. Your going into MoS's "if you vote for me you're scum" theory, which I didn't like in the first place. You should have given a reason for your vote-and I doubt Oman was trying to avert the attention from Flameaxe, given that you posted 0(zero) facts against Flameaxe. Adding this to what you did last round (self vote, etc), I'm going to

Vote: Tar

But Tar did give a reason for his vote (though it was after the fact); he said he was fishing for reactions. That's reasonable.

Not sure if I want to join this Oman bandwagon at the moment. I'm gonna do some rereading first.

[Trojan Horse]

So he said that he said that he said that this is a scumtell... *mind reels*

Tell me if my understanding is off, but it looks like tyhess was simply REPEATING Tar's claim about a certain behavior being a scumtell. I don't see where tyhess AGREED that it was a scumtell. So I don't see the contradiction here.

In other news, I perused Oman's earlier posts, looking for anything that might set my scumdar off. And I barely got a "bloop" on the scumdar. Of the three current bandwagons, my preference would be for a Flameaxe vote, due to his unhelpfulness at the end of day 1. But since jumping on any of these bandwagons would bring that person's vote count to 3 (oh no! 3rd on the bandwagon! must be scum! lynch lynch!), I'll content myself with a

FoS: Flameaxe

for now.

[Trojan Horse]

*pulls out hair*

Okay, let me get this straight. We've had THREE things mentioned as possible scumtells:

1. Tar's original unexplained vote on Flameaxe, followed by an unvote and an explanation that he was looking for reactions

2. Oman's vote on Tar for doing #1

3. Tar's vote on Oman for doing #2

If I understand correctly, Tar called #2 a scumtell, and tyhess called #3 a scumtell. Am I correct? (Considering my mind is swimming in confusion right now, I could well be completely off...)

[Trojan Horse]

In any case, I'd say that none of the above are really scumtells...

[Trojan Horse]

I hope you've picked up on something that I haven't, theo. I'm thinking about a Flameaxe lynch, just for his apparent lack of interest at the end of day 1, and for lack of anything better to go on.

[Trojan Horse]

Theo has an awful lot of time on his hands. Way more than I have.

Thanks for taking the time to give everything another look.

[Trojan Horse]

Wow. Now that's a tough act to follow. So many things to respond to. It'll take time. I guess I'll just do the same thing Flameaxe did and say

"Town being useless"

and try to come up with some meaningful responses later. (Just so you know: tomorrow is one of my full teaching days. But Thursday I only have one class, so I have some free time.)

Finally; at some point, we should pitch in and do one of these breakdowns for theo. Not that I think he's scum; I just think turnabout is fair play.

[Trojan Horse]

The other times you saw it, was it scum trying to get a breakdown on a single person doing breakdowns on everyone else? *shakes head* I just wanted to complete the set of arguments, that's all.

[Trojan Horse]

Alright, here we go...

Also I get an early vibe of following, CKD prods MoS, Trojan then posts

Hmm... lemme go see if MoS is posting elsewhere.

Okay, MoS posted a bunch of times (in other games) yesterday evening. So he's definitely around.

Those posts I made were on page 3. Had it been someone besides MoS, I probably wouldn't have cared so much about not having posted yet (the game had just started the day before). But this is MoS we're talking about. I was expecting him to start posting just hours after the game started.

* Removes vote from Blackstrike. Note to self to see if there's any inconsistency in his thoughts on claims

I had a thought: how on earth are we going to handle claims at the start of the game? Once we've reached a consensus on who is scummy, should we demand a claim from that person? If we do, and that person says "townie", we're in a bit of a pickle. It may well be best to lynch them; they may be lying, and even if they're not, it'll deny the cult a possible recruit.

I admit, I thought at first that if we left a claimed vanilla townie alive, he'd be sure to be recruited the following night. The whole WIFOM aspect of that didn't come to mind until Tar claimed vanilla at the end of the day.

* Excuse for not finding scum, plus early defence of Flame.

So I don't have to keep repeating myself, I'll make one thing clear now: I did not think Flame was any more or less scummy than the average player until the VERY end of day 1 (when he seemed not to care so much). I mean the very very end, after I made this post:

Another newbish comment from tyhess. More grounds for lynching? Perhaps. I'd certainly prefer to lynch tyhess than Flameaxe.

Unvote, Vote tyhess

Note: I'm prepared to switch to Flameaxe at the last minute, if that's what it takes to avoid a no lynch. Better to lynch someone of average scumminess than to lynch no one.

Still no reason to go after Flameaxe. But then he made this post, which set me off:

The above post is the truth. I do have tomorrow off as of now though.

Let's see....
6 posts in other threads today.
14 posts in other threads Thursday
17 posts in other threads Wednesday.

Why am I unconvinced?

A) I'm enjoying bothering you about it.
B) How many of those posts were over 3 sentences?

Time ticking away, deadline nearing, and no real action from Flameaxe's part. Though by then, it was too late to act on my new suspicions.

* Posts his scumdar, I'm going to quote all of these because I think they will probably be important

---

* I call him out on his nice-nicey analysis, responds he will look harder, yeh scum usually ought to try a bit harder.

As MoS said a while back, there's a case that could be made against any of us being scum. I've been looking for things that set one or two of us apart from the rest, and I haven't had much luck. And given that, is it any wonder that my analysis sounded "nice-nicey"?

* Post 16, expresses suspicion of MoS says he did some research and MoS goes higher in his suspicions, there's actually no reason in the post why though. Seems more a playstyle issue. Comments that MoS is playing conservatively.

Indeed. More conservatively than I'd expect of him. But Flameaxe has suddenly become even more conservative than MoS was at the very start. My eye is not on MoS now.

I eagerly await theo's next post, as he completes his breakdown of all the players. Hope he doesn't think I'm too scummy.

Alright, you've made your point. I'll stop joking around.

More to come shortly.

[Trojan Horse]

Continuing...

* Seems a little bit concerned aswell following the MoS vote

Finally, what's this about -1? I never saw more than 5 votes on MoS at any one time. Did I miscount?

Do I believe that? Or was it a sly attempt by scum to board a wagon nearing the lynch number.

My vote was #4. Oman's was #5. (I just doublechecked now, to make sure.) The bandwagon on MoS was already vanishing when I made this comment. Just wanted to make sure no one was attacked for putting MoS at -1.

* How would all three know each other was scum? There's only two players who know anyone else to be scum.

Incidentally; this game seems to have temporarily devolved into MoS versus pwayne and White, with everyone else (including myself) taking a back seat. If one of those three is scum, I wouldn't mind this so much. But it's bad news if all three bad guys are just sitting back and watching the town rip itself to shreds.

Where did I say they all knew each other? Even though the cult leader didn't know the mafia, and vice versa, all three could still have been laying low at that point.

* Another little scumdar list

---

And finally, can't let myself off the hook:

Trojan Horse: Being swayed easily by other people's arguments. Are they really changing my mind, or am I scum trying to avoid suspicion?

Again it seems very apologetic, I don't even know why he posted it. Reading the list personally I think he finds himself the scummiest wtf. There's just no aggressive scum hunting going down at all so far.

Apologetic, sure. But my main purpose was to be comprehensive; I wanted to give the group something to go on for everyone, including myself. (Same reason why I recently suggested we pitch in and make a list for theo.)

* Still has nothing worth noting, spells it out even, looks to possibly push something towards CKD.

And it looks like my slight hunch on that turned out to be right. Maybe I shouldn't be doubting my scumdar so much.

And lo and behold changes his opinion slightly on ac, complete turnaround from post 30

Oh, and theo... lemme go see what acfan said before he got replaced. I'll go see what you're talking about.

Interesting that I post the case against AC, he raises his suspicion a notch

Okay. I'll raise acfan/Kakeng's scummy level a notch. But just a notch.

* Comments that he won't be worried about AC's dissapearance if Kakeng performs.

And is it a bad thing to change my opinion based on someone else's argument? As for the last comment there: it's always tough dealing with lurkers, since you don't know if RL just got in the way, or if the person is scum and is trying to stay below the radar (or is trying to avoid confrontation). If Kakeng actually contributed, I'd have to assume RL got in acfan's way, and that would be that. But Kakeng was as bad as acfan, so I had to think...

Alright then MoS, I'll commit. Not happy about it, but I'll commit.

Vote tyhess

Never was happy with all of his bandwagon hopping at the start of the game. Could just be newbishness, but it could also be an opportunistic scum, hiding behind the fact that he's a newb.

Sure hope I got it right.

I was tired of being wishy-washy, and I was tired of having so little to go on. After MoS pushed me on, I decided to just go for it. It was a moment of frustration for me.

* Defends Flame in 37.

I referred to a argument between Flame and White as a null tell for both of them. How is that defending Flame?

* Joking is a scumtell you know.

So I've heard.

* Calls Tar out for his lurking.
* Willing to vote for him if he doesn't appear.

Okay, that's the last thing I'm going to quote concerning lurkers. Why is it so wrong to consider lynching a lurker? The last thing we want is to give the scum a chance to win the game by just saying nothing. We need to get the scum talking (by getting everyone talking), so we can try to catch scum.

* Comments that we have no choice but to lynch Tar in 68. Votes Kakeng.

And in between the two, someone brought up the possible WIFOMing that would happen if we let Tar live. Would Tar necessarily be recruited? Might the scum off Tar to prevent the cult from growing stronger? Things I hadn't considered. So I changed my mind.

* Slight defence of Oman, this could be distancing, an FOS is hardly freaking pressure.

In other news, I perused Oman's earlier posts, looking for anything that might set my scumdar off. And I barely got a "bloop" on the scumdar. Of the three current bandwagons, my preference would be for a Flameaxe vote, due to his unhelpfulness at the end of day 1. But since jumping on any of these bandwagons would bring that person's vote count to 3 (oh no! 3rd on the bandwagon! must be scum! lynch lynch!), I'll content myself with a FoS: Flameaxe for now.

Had there been one fewer vote on Flameaxe, I would've voted for him. Didn't want to put him at -2 before he had a chance to respond.

That should suffice for now. Obviously didn't respond to everything theo said- would've taken too long. Took long enough as it is. Anything else I need to respond to?

[Trojan Horse]

Had my top two suspects. Had my reasons for voting either. What I didn't have was confidence. I was hoping that someone could point out some scummy behavior (either from those two or from someone else) that I had missed. Something that could allow me to cast a vote with greater confidence.

[Trojan Horse]

Flameaxe is at -1.

I'm giving you a little more time to change your tune, Flameaxe. I got the hammer out. Contribute, or it's hammer time.

[Trojan Horse]

Yes, vollkan. I noticed he claimed already.

[Trojan Horse]

So much for my scumdar. My top two suspects during day 1 were both vanilla townies.

So, right now we have 2 scum, 1-3 protown power roles (including a vig, most likely), and 1-3 vanilla townies, one of whom might have been recruited. Tar most likely is a vanilla townie (or at least he started out that way), and I doubt theo would go to all that trouble if he was scum. (If you did, congrats, you're fooling me big time.) So my eyes are on Oman, vollkan, and pwayne.

Hopefully, someone has some info that can help us out at this point.

[Trojan Horse]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #52

Not Voting[6](Oman, vollkan, Tarhalindur, pwayne66, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

In response to Tar's first order of business: NO. Absolutely not. We are still in "claim only to avoid being lynched" territory. I want us to lynch a scum without revealing who the vig is. (If the vig is still alive at the endgame, that's a BIG boost for our chances.)

[Trojan Horse]

Theo obviously didn't read the last several posts.

THEO. WE NEED TO PROTECT THE VIG'S IDENTITY. A MASSCLAIM IS A BAD IDEA.

[Trojan Horse]

Since vollkan did a PBPA analysis of Oman, I want to look at either vollkan or pwayne next. I just may have the time to do a PBPA of my own tomorrow (Thursday is one of my lighter days). But which should I look at first? I'm not sure...

-I think the whole Oman/pwayne thing suggested by vollkan is a legitimate possibility. Perhaps some of pwayne's posts will link him to Oman as well. But...

-Knowing that my scumdar is faulty (MoS and tyhess were my top suspects for a while, and they both turned up protown), I want to take a closer look at vollkan, who has NOT looked scummy at all to me. He may well have me fooled. I want to make sure I didn't miss any scumtells from him.

Eh, I'll eventually do an analysis of both of them. Tomorrow, I guess I'll just pick one at random to analyze first.

(Oh, pwayne: I'll take a closer look at your latest post shortly. But as for your final point- that there are no connections between you and Oman- what about all the "townie brownies" he threw your way? )

[Trojan Horse]

Good point.

[Trojan Horse]

Decided to look at vollkan first. Man... I had no idea these things take so long! I've gotten through 40-some posts by vollkan, and already I'm getting tired out. I need a break.

I was thinking that it would be best for me not to post any part of vollkan's breakdown until pwayne is done with mine, so that things don't get too confusing. But I noticed that pwayne said he won't be done until Monday. Hmm... eh, probably best if I wait anyway. Then I'll be able to post the full breakdown of vollkan (and possibly part of pwayne's) in one shot.

[Trojan Horse]

Besides, pwayne is working on mine. So don't worry about it.

Just do Tar's. His is easy. We can fight over who will do one for pwayne later.

I've got about 20 posts to go for vollkan. I'll post the full PBPA either later today or tomorrow.

[Trojan Horse]

Whew! Done. Here’s the PBPA of vollkan. Hopefully what I say makes some sense; wasn't sure just how much I needed to say on each post.

(I hope someone with more time on their hands can do pwayne, since I really don’t want to do another one of these.)

Here we go...

5- random votes me, does the obligatory joke about my username
20- points out Dr. Blackstrike's “edited by” was part of his signature
34- says vanillas should avoid having to claim, as they would likely be culted; says we may have no choice but to lynch a claimed townie; goes after Dr. BS for saying that townies should try to get killed by scum
35- goes after Dr. BS for more scummy logic
40- corrects someone who says we have 4-6 vanillas total (we have 5-7)
69- doesn't like Flameaxe's vote on Dr. BS; votes Flameaxe
71- more arguments against Flame
77- points out problems which may arise if a vanilla claims
79- quotes CKD, who said no one should claim day 1 at all; vollkan points out that a protown power role SHOULD claim if at -1
94- clarifies reasons for vote on Flameaxe
110- 2 votes on tyhess isn't much of a wagon
118- says that some newbies fear saying anything, for fear it'll be turned against them (says he had that fear as a newbie, and Rump apparently has it now)
125- reclarifies vote on Flame; asks for opinions from tyhess
138- quotes theo, who said that he didn't like pwayne defending Dr. BS; points out that pwayne wasn't the only one defending him
142- Oman didn't like theo's vote on pwayne; theo doesn't like Oman's reaction; vollkan doesn't like theo's reaction
145- now votes for theo
147- looks at theo's list of suspects, says he sees nothing odd about it
159- gets newbie read on tyhess- more so than a scummy read
162- says cult leader will (for the moment) act protown, since there are no recruits to protect yet- cult will probably act scummier later on
164- clarifies 162
166- more clarification
178- quotes acfan's FoS of Oman (acfan doesn’t like Oman’s case against theo), asks for more info; mistakenly attributes the FoS to tyhess, instead of acfan
180- corrects mistake in 178
185- tyhess jumped on vollkan for the mistake in 178, vollkan wonders if tyhess is being serious; vollkan asks MoS for opinions beyond "one line remarks about the number of people here"
187- Oman wants acfan to pick someone scummier than theo- vollkan wants acfan to clarify his comment, but says acfan doesn’t need to pick someone scummier
193- quotes an apparent overreaction from tyhess (people didn’t like the fact that tyhess wanted to edit a post); quotes my comment about tyhess being a major newb, says “Newb..not scum.”
199- clarifies 193; says that tyhess could be newbscum, puts FoS on tyhess
200- asks tyhess to clarify his overreaction
202- more comments for tyhess- apparently I was the only one that spoke about tyhess’s attempt to edit
205- apparently theo mentioned tyhess’s edit attempt also, but passed no judgment
207- Dr. BS’s “edit sig” had been mentioned before, but not as evidence of scumminess
218- MoS is now talking about his own style of play- vollkan not satisfied with that
220- Oman votes MoS- vollkan wants to know why
224- not satisfied with Oman’s explanation; puts FoS on Oman
226- still apparently not satisfied; asks MoS about Flameaxe and theo (whom MoS said seemed “genuine”)
232- satisfied with MoS’s response; Oman is making vollkan’s “brain hurt”
240- still wondering about Oman’s suspicion of MoS
269- White replaces in; vollkan wants to give him a chance to read before we argue with him
309- vollkan’s first scumdar:

My scumdar:

Mastermind of Sin:

Lurker and then just posted theory stuff. Things seem to have sparked off with #209 which was the “Theo and Flame seem genuine” post. Evidently, people think he has been overly-defensive, though I am a little unsure as to whether I would react differently if someone accused me of having a "developed plan". I don't think the suspicion of him is unreasonable or baseless, but I don't feel strongly about MoS yet.

Oman:

I noticed, as White has, that Oman seems to agree with me a lot. I was a little off-put by his “developed plan” thing, hence my FoS, but his subsequent explanation of it being “developed stance” made it slightly more sensible. A few little things here and there, but I don’t suspect him to any significant degree.

ac1983fan:

Lurker; nothing to say.

Dr. Blackstrike:

Newbish lurker. I never really developed any suspicion for him, mainly because he was so quick to admit his error with regards to that plan.

curiouskarmadog:

Seems pro-town. My scumdar hasn’t hit any pings yet for CKD.

pwayne66:

I was in agreement with him on the BS thing and was pleased he stopped the BS wagon. I think White is correct regarding the pacifism thing and sometimes taking things personally, but I am willing to put it down to playstyle more than scumminess.

tyhess:

Numerous scummy actions, but also a complete newb. He has suspicion from me, but I need to see how things develop.

Trojan Horse:

Seems legit; no pinging as of yet.

Flameaxe:

I suspected him early on, but by slipping out of the game everything has progressed beyond that point. I will be watching flame or his replacement.

White (r. Rump-Wat):

Very strong contributor and is doing well at moving discussion forward, which can only be a good thing.

theopor_COD:

When I voted him, he was being slippery as all hell. Has been rather lurkish since then and I really would like to see some more discussion to either confirm or diminish my suspicions.

315- wonders why tyhess says his vote on theo could “change quickly”- possibly “trying to give yourself a way out to jump on a wagon”
347- doesn’t like tyhess’s suggestion for everyone to post top 3 suspects, since scum could exploit that. Wants pressure put on theo, tyhess, and MoS.
349- doesn’t seem to like Oman’s new vote on theo
351- responds to Oman’s scumdar
354- satisfied by a clarification from Oman
360- tyhess made a mistake, saying that cultist “knows that all but one person is protown”; theo called the mistake a town-tell; vollkan says could be an error by town or scum
361- cross-posts with pwayne; Oman asked theo for clarification about why tyhess’s mistake was a town-tell, then theo said Oman was “fishing”; now vollkan doesn’t get why theo accused Oman of fishing
366- still wondering why theo used the word “fishing”
369- tyhess wants us to work together and to narrow down our suspects; vollkan asks how he wants us to “work together”
372- points out problems with narrowing down the suspect list
424- looks at MoS’s latest scumdar, doesn’t like MoS’s comment against him; FoSes MoS
435- comments on MoS’s apparent “trap” to catch scum by acting a bit scummy, thus coaxing scum to jump on his wagon
453- not convinced by case against MoS; also not convinced that MoS’s plan would help
459- wants more pressure put on MoS; mistakenly says MoS is at -1
461, 464, 470- more pressure on MoS
474- MoS, now being bandwagoned, is not happy about not being asked to claim by anyone; vollkan said he wanted to look for reactions to MoS being at -1 before asking MoS to claim
476- vollkan not voting MoS, but should still ask for a claim “when the time is appropriate”
479- agreed with my comment that MoS only got to 5 votes, not 6
486- admits that he was the one that mistakenly said MoS was at -1; wonders about the “flurry” of unvotes after that mistake
490- points out that Oman said he wouldn’t ask for a claim until -1, and that Oman said he wouldn’t take such a claim seriously
496- asks Oman why he’d ask for a claim if he wouldn’t take it seriously
497- corrects mistyped phrase in 496
549, 552, 544- vollkan is confused about my reasons for voting MoS; MoS quotes me to clarify what my reasons were
565- expects to hear from Flame within a day, based on Flame’s post in another thread
570- tyhess says MoS hasn’t defended himself; vollkan curious as to what MoS HASN’T defended himself against yet
575- deadline looming; wants more discussion; prefers lynch to no lynch
597- wants an extension
620- MoS said that those who didn’t vote for the extension are slightly likelier to be scum; vollkan calls that “WIFOMic thinking”
631- wonders if Flameaxe “has any proactive interest in this game”
636- MoS said not asking for the extension is a minor tell, but vollkan doesn’t call it a tell at all
642- quotes Flameaxe saying he doesn’t have much time for a re-read
646- mocks one of Flame’s sarcastic posts
669- asks Flame to clarify his vote on White; also asks if deadline was extended
672- votes Flame since he refuses to clarify; looks like Flame’s vote is OMGUS
677- says vote on Flame is to pressure Flame into detailing his vote on White
688- more pressure on Flame, who still isn’t clarifying
714- extremely suspicious of my vote against tyhess, which I cast under pressure from MoS
717- doesn’t want me to vote/unvote based on pressure
722- quotes 717, wants me to respond
755- why on earth is MoS random voting?
760- TROJ. STOP JOKING.
795- wants input from Tar and Kakeng
820- agrees that we should try to settle things a couple of days before the deadline
839- pwayne looked at two earlier bandwagons (MoS and Dr. BS); vollkan wonders why he didn’t consider the Flameaxe bandwagon
844- looking at bandwagons not all that useful “when you don’t know anybody’s alignment”
854- says lynching a lurker costs us some info
860- not satisfied with Kakeng’s contribution (rightfully so, IMO)
862- wants clarification from Kakeng
898- mad that Tar claimed vanilla: “we now have a sitting duck for the cult.”
900- Kakeng suggested Tar could be a protown power role, pretending to be vanilla; vollkan doubts that; vollkan doesn’t like Kakeng jokingly claiming vanilla
951- gives reasons for/against lynching Tar; concludes we shouldn’t lynch Tar; FoSes pwayne for pushing a lynch of Tar
962- response to theo- said he thought Tar was likely a vanilla, but not a confirmed vanilla
969- wants Oman to lay off the “brownies” (hee-hee)
992- breaks down the numbers regarding a possible Tar lynch; concludes a Tar lynch is bad; votes pwayne for his stance
998- clarifies vote on pwayne
1017- unvotes pwayne, gives second scumdar:

The scale I will be using is 0% = Absolutely town, 100% = Absolutely scum

MoS

- I didn't have strong suspicions of him early on in the height of the wagoning with his ploy. Since then, he has been participating well. Slightly scummy, but I think more likely town. 35%.

Oman

- A few little things earlier (most notably the "developed plan" farrago). He hasn't been very helpful. 65%.

Kakeng

- Well, our lurky lurker ac1983 was replaced by a lurkier lurker. Completely unhelpful and has actually refused to post (the whole "It's still plenty of time" thing). I'd be happy with his lynch out of a combination of his lurking and obstinacy. 60%

Tarhalindur

- I was among those who weren't sold on the BS wagon. At the time, it seemed reasonable, given that we hadn't properly analysed the reality. I believe his vanilla claim; his actions make no sense at all otherwise. Having said that, his recruitment is very likely so I will be watching him like a hawk. 30%

CKD

- In my last scumdar, I said he seemed pro-town and I maintain that here. I don't get very many pings at all. 20%

Pwayne66

- I didn't have much of a read of him in my last scumdar. He was ambiguous. His latest pushing of the Tar lynch hiked up my suspicion considerably. He has since dropped it so

Unvote

. 75%

Tyhess

- What I said in my last scumdar remains unaltered: "Numerous scummy actions, but also a complete newb. He has suspicion from me, but I need to see how things develop." 60%

Trojan Horse

- A lot of small things aggregating from him
, but nothing earth-shattering. 65%.

Flameaxe

- I didn't like him early on. His only post in this whole Pwayne-Tar affair was an "I told you so". His previous posts were all useless one-liners. 70%.

White

- Forceful, direct and active (sounds like a shampoo ) Maybe a bit aggressive at times, but I often get accused of the same thing when I move into an attack on people, so I feel comfortable attributing this to playstyle. 30%

Theopor_COD

- Not very much help. His most recent stuff has been pushing for Kakeng and entirely ignoring the wagon on Pwayne. If Pwayne comes up scum, I think Theo is a potential partner. 65%

1021- not happy about length of game; wants to push things along; votes Kakeng
1025- points out that Kakeng is at 5 votes (theo thought it was 6); wants Kakeng to claim
1026- Kakeng’s townie claim must have been a joke (had a smiley)
1030- bit of a “mux-ip”
1033- wants Kakeng to claim
1037- unvotes; not happy about having a claimed vanilla and a claimed roleblocker
1041- tyhess not happy that Kakeng was asked to claim; vollkan’s reply: “You would rather we lynched a power role?”
1045- Flameaxe #2 on his list, and is lurking; would be happy with pwayne lynch also, but votes Flameaxe
1052- tyhess still saying that he doesn’t want to force roleclaims; said he’d “rather lynch a roleblocker than ask for a claim; vollkan FoSes tyhess
1054, 1056- still arguing with tyhess
1058- it’s WIFOM if Kakeng survives the night; says we should just proceed as normal if that happens
1062- asks me to clarify my latest vote on tyhess
1067- MoS votes Kakeng; vollkan prefers Flameaxe, but will vote Kakeng to avoid a no lynch
1078- time running out, votes Kakeng
1081- more reason to worry about Flame’s lurking- he “lurked his way to victory” in another game
1084- not buying the claim that Flameaxe is busy, since he posted multiple times elsewhere
1087- asked Flameaxe why he posted in other threads but not here
1089- doesn’t like the reply: “Because they were more important at the time.”
1093- clarifies theo’s question to Flameaxe (theo asked Flame where he stood, Flameaxe said “On…?” and vollkan said “The imminent deadline.”)
1098- still prefers Flameaxe lynch
1106- switches vote from Kakeng to Flameaxe, but will switch back to avoid no lynch (thing is, Kakeng already hammered himself)
1115- 2 kills night 1; argues against tyhess’s idea that second one was from an SK; must be from a vig; gives some odds breakdowns
1122- says that death of cult leader probably didn’t in and of itself prevent a recruiting; mistakenly says endgame with 1 townie & 1 cultie is a draw (mod later clarifies that cultie would win)
1134- denies having been recruited (MoS, tyhess, and pwayne all suggested that possibility); vollkan’s third scumdar:

I am not now and have never been a member of the cult. I was not recruited yesterday. That's really all I can say. There is no case for me to rebut, other than that I have been "too townie".

Anyway, my alignment list thing with %s. My last post of this nature was in Post #1017:

MoS

: No change from last time in terms of my level of suspicion. The Kakeng thing is a bit of a null to me right now, though it might become relevant later on. 35%

Oman

: As with my last scumdar, Oman had a few tells early on and was unhelpful. Nothing has happened to shift this. 65%

Tarhalindur

: I believed his vanilla claim, so my feeling is that he is either vanilla or CR right now. Just going by his behaviour, 30%.

pwayne66

: The tar lynch thing was very scummy yesterday. He dropped it, but I still suspect him for it. 70%

tyhess

: Scummy actions but very newbish. 60%

Trojan Horse

: Numerous scumtells aggregating up. 70%

Flameaxe

: Lurking, unhelpful and scummy. This guy is topping my list. 75%.

theopor_COD

: Not very much change since yesterday. 55%

I intend on doing a reread of Flameaxe to reassess whether my suspicion is actually warranted.

1170- Tar is probably townie or cultist; votes Flameaxe
1177, 1180, 1183, 1188- confusion over what tyhess said was a scumtell; FoSes tyhess, then unFoSes once the confusion is resolved
1196- doesn’t like Oman’s “casual support” of my wanting a Flameaxe lynch
1210- goes through the mafia parser, sees an apparent connection between me and Flameaxe
1221- doesn’t like my using Flameaxe’s “Town being useless” line; doesn’t like that Oman voted me because I suggested doing a breakdown of theo’s posts
1228- MoS quotes tyhess and Oman, and says “uh-huh”; vollkan asks what the connection was between the two quotes
1238- asks me to clarify part of my response to theo’s breakdown of me
1244, 1246- Flameaxe not being helpful
1257- I pointed out that Flame was at -1; vollkan wonders why I didn’t ask for a claim
1260- I pointed out that he already claimed; vollkan satisfied
1274- Day 3; vollkan’s fourth scumdar:

Right, first up we are in 4:2 LYLO now, which means

extreme caution

is needed. I'll remind you all: A wagon over 2 votes could trigger a quick-hammering.

As for my scumdar:

Oman

- As I have been saying consistently now, Oman was unhelpful early on with a few tells. His hammer for flame was very odd. 70%

Tarhalindur

- Either vanilla or cultist. Either way, lynching him is a bad idea. On behaviour alone, 30%.

Pwayne

- His Tar vote was scummy. He has been of no real help and his flameaxe vote had very little reasoning behind it. 70%.

Trojan Horse

- Numerous small scum tells aggregated, but he cleared them up rather well yesterday. Still scummy, but significantly less so. 65%.

Theo

- Early on, he wasn't much help and I was pretty suspicious of him, particularly for going after Kakeng and ignoring Pwayne. Since then, his contributions have been solid and seemingly pro-town. Based on his early behaviour, I am not going to rule him out, but I do not suspect him highly either. 55%.

1276- breakdown of why we shouldn’t mass claim
1279- responds to Oman’s strange post (Oman must have misunderstood what happened at night)
1283- not happy with pwayne getting too emotional
1285- more arguing with pwayne; vollkan says he’ll do a PBPA of Oman
1290- PBPA of Oman
1292- clarifies earlier suspicions of Flameaxe; why does pwayne call vollkan’s Oman-pwayne theory “ridiculous”?
1299- more arguments with pwayne, including connections between Oman and pwayne
1302- more against pwayne
1304- satisfied with part of pwayne’s defense
1307- gives us the link to the mafia parser
1310- PBPA of theo
1311- who to do a PBPA for next?
1313- agrees to do Tar, the easy one

Conclusions: Let me just say that if vollkan is scum, he is sure hiding any connections between himself and his teammate very well. My scumdar is calling him “protown” all the way; and yet, because my scumdar has been proven very wrong already, I can’t help having some doubts. I may be fooled.

[Trojan Horse]

Tar, if you are the recruit, you might as well claim. No-one is going to target you, and you have to hunt scum as much as we do.

Heehee. I guess that was worth a shot, Oman. But I would've been really surprised if that had worked.

[Trojan Horse]

Continuing to run through the combinations in my mind. Tearing out my hair as I do so. If Tar's a mafia, he deserves the victory (and an Academy award) for his performance at the end of day 1. Scant chance of him being a mafia (though he may be a cultie). But everyone else... grr...

My top choice right now is Oman. He's only been in the middle of my scumdar list until now, but since MoS and tyhess were killed last night (two of my top suspects), Oman is suddenly at the top of my list. I'll keep perusing the PBPA's and look for something more solid to go on.

Tar, care to give us a scumdar?

[Trojan Horse]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #56

Oman[1](pwayne66)
Trojan Horse[1](Oman)


Not Voting[4](vollkan, Tarhalindur, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

More work = less time to look at games. I apologize for falling behind. I want to eventually comment on this whole vollkan/pwayne thing (is pwayne's vote on Oman justified?). But for now, let me respond to vollkan.

1) He rebuts the suggestion that he was following CKD in prodding MoS by saying that he only cared

because

it was MoS. The strange thing is, that even in theo's own analysis he quotes TH saying:

Okay, MoS posted a bunch of times (in other games) yesterday evening. So he's definitely around.

He makes no mention of the fact that MoS being MoS is actually important.

Okay, so I didn't mention IN THAT POST that my concern was that it was specifically MoS that hadn't posted yet. But I did mention it a few posts later. Post 89, to be exact.

My apologies, MoS, on focusing on your lack of posting in this game. I guess it was more noticeable than the absence of acfan or theopor, since you're more well-known on this site (IMO). But anyway...

2) Theo made a point that TH was using a "broken scumdar" as an excuse for finding scum, lumping this (for some reason) with the point that TH had given an early defence of FA. TH doesn't address the first of these and instead solely responds to the FA point, saying he just didn't find FA more scummy than anybody else on average. In other words, he avoided the point about not using "broken scumdar" as an excuse for not scumhunting.

Well, if there's any doubt about my scumdar being broken, check out the four players who have been nightkilled so far. I suspected them all at some point, but only one turned out to be a bad guy (and he was the cult recruiter, not a scum). Check post 729:

Let me give you the sum total of my thoughts right now. I actually have 4 suspects in mind right now, and I would find it tough to vote for anyone else. In approximate order of scumminess:

tyhess: I know, I know, he's an easy target. But easy targets can be scum too. I think all his opportunistic bandwagon hopping is too much, even for a newb. If there had been a night round at the start, I wouldn't be as concerned. I would think tyhess is newbtown, since I would assume any newbscum would be cautioned by more experienced scummates not to stand out in the crowd. But we started with day. Could be tyhess is newbscum, and hasn't been forewarned.

MoS: It's still about how long it took for him to focus on a suspect at the start. Not something I would attack most players for, but this is MoS after all. Incidentally, if he is scum, that would've been a brilliant move on his part: pushing me into voting, knowing that everyone else would jump on me for it. But it's his behavior early in the game that I'm mostly concerned about.

curiouskarmadog: If you want to attack me for "flying under the radar" (as someone said), why aren't you attacking this guy too? We're in the same boat.

White: This would be my final option. He's been taking control since he replaced in, putting pressure on several people in turn. Scummy? Not in and of itself. That's what players do: look for scumtells. But is this his usual style of play? As I did with MoS, I'm going to take a quick look at some other games he's in and see if he's doing the same thing. If he is, fine. If not, I'll give him the eye of suspicion.

But more to the point: I have spent some time looking at everyone's posts and trying to find scummier things than just "Oh, MoS hasn't settled on anyone yet, strange for him" and "Oh, tyhess is hopping like crazy, could be scum". Had I found stronger evidence than that, I would've brought it up.

I admit, too many times I've watched two (or three) players go back and forth in a huge argument, and I've sat there and thought it was a null tell for both. "This looks like an argument between two townies with weak evidence. Not sure why this even started. Both are looking like the typical protowner right now. Scum must be happy right now." MoS summed it up well when he said a case could be made against anyone. And that has really frustrated me.

3) Uses this impaired ability to scumhunt as an excuse for his "nicey-nicey" scumdar.

Alright, I'll stop making excuses. But it's the truth.

4) Theo makes a good point that TH actually makes himself sound scummiest, and calls this being apologetic. TH says that he just wanted to be "comprehensive".

I want to carry my own weight in this game. Don't just want to follow the crowd. I was having trouble finding scumtells. Perhaps I shouldn't have been so apologetic about that.

But as for my being "comprehensive", I think I've been consistent in that regard. When theo was doing breakdowns of various players during day 2, I wanted us to pitch in and do one for him. When you were doing breakdowns today, vollkan, I did one for you. Is it silly for me to add in what I expect to be the main argument against me, when I do my scumdar for everyone else? (Ok, maybe it's silly, but I did it anyway.)

5) The whole giving in to MoS's pressure and voting tyhess thing he puts down to frustration at being wishy-washy and having nothing to go on. This is effectively an emotional excuse and TH doesn't seem to be a particularly emotional player. Possible inconsistency.

Yes, that was an inconsistency. I'm not usually an emotional player, but that was a rare moment of emotion for me.

6) Argues that we should consider lynching lurkers because we don't want the scum to be able to hide. The problem with this is, obviously, that town are just as likely to be lurking as scum are. Hence, lynching them is hardly helpful.

Call it a meta, if you want. I don't want the game to degenerate into a lurk-a-thon, which would only help the scum. I want people to talk. (If a scum managed to lurk the whole game, and survived the whole game, and won, I'd be REALLY mad. Fortunately, doesn't look like that'll happen; the only remaining player who could be called a serious lurker is Tar, and I really doubt he's scum.)

[Trojan Horse]

You don't have to go over all 56 pages, Tar. Just look at the PBPA's. That's what we made 'em for.

Brief thing to mention: remember how suspicious of tyhess I was at the start, because of all the bandwagon hopping he was doing? Well, I took another look at the thread with the mafia parser; among other things, it gives a final breakdown of the votes and FoSes cast by each player. And one person in particular has put tyhess to shame. Strange I didn't notice it before. *eyes Oman suspiciously*

Of course, tyhess turned up town, so I can't use that as evidence by itself. I'm going to take a closer look at each of Oman's votes. Some I'll ignore (like his random vote at the start) but some I'll want him to explain. Expect my list of questions tomorrow.

By the way:

Most scummy:

1) Oman
T-3) Vollkan
T-3) theo
T-3) TH
T-4) Tar

Replace my name with yours, pwayne, and you've got my list. I know I said at the start of this day that I wasn't that concerned with theo, because of the breakdowns he took the time to make during day 2. But now vollkan and pwayne have taken time to do the same. Combine that with theo's vanishing, and theo's now even with vollkan and pwayne in my mind.

[Trojan Horse]

Reread. And now my thoughts are shifting again. I guess the fact that Oman has had more votes/unvotes than anyone else is deceptive, for two reasons:

1. There were a couple of times that he switched votes to vote for a lurker, then switched back again when the lurker posted. Can't fault him for that.

2. Unlike tyhess, who kept stepping onto each of the major bandwagons, some of Oman's votes were solo votes (no one else on the wagon). So they weren't really "opportunistic votes", like tyhess's appeared to be. Guess Oman is just a bit more apt to express his opinions with a vote than the rest of us.

Anyway, I looked over his votes, and most of them seemed reasonable at the time. In fact, I have just one question to ask:

Oman, why did you hammer Flameaxe? I know you said you don't like self-hammers (and I don't blame you), but did you really think hammering him yourself would be any better?

[Trojan Horse]

Looks like everyone still alive has voiced some suspicion of Oman during this round, except for Oman (of course) and theo (who's gone missing). Which could mean one of three things:

1. We're dead wrong, and the scum are looking to push yet another mislynch.
2. Oman is scum, and is being bussed by his teammate.
3. Oman and theo are the scum.

I don't mind saying that I'm liking possibility #3 more and more...

One thing I will say: I'm not going to cast a vote on anyone until theo has been found or replaced. We need to get that sixth voice into the mix.

[Trojan Horse]

I don't mind saying that I'm liking possibility #3 more and more...

Did I miss a post where you explained this being likely?

You didn't miss anything. I'll explain below.

1) @TH, you just made a post in which you declared Oman's actions to be "reasonable", with the obvious exception of the hammer which you (rightly) questioned. And yet, you have now moved towards again indicating you are suspicious of Oman and theo. The only intermittent change I can see is that Tar also expressed suspicion of Oman (going with the group perhaps?). If Oman's actions were "reasonable" what makes him still seem to be your prime suspect?

I guess I'm in the same boat as pwayne here. It's process of elimination. You saw my PBPA of you, vollkan; I haven't seen anything scummy from you yet. (I have doubts about my scumdar, but that's unavoidable.) Tar is either townie, cultie, or an extremely brazen scum (last one not likely, IMO). So that just leaves Oman, pwayne, and theo/MoS. And while Oman has only been of average scumminess so far (IMO), average scumminess puts him at the top right now. I'm going back and forth between Oman-pwayne and Oman-theo/MoS.

2) @TH again:
a) What has made you think it likely that theo is scum? In your last scumdar you had him ranked equal with Pwayne and myself and you have made no intermittent remarks which make him seem more likely scum.
b) Furthermore, what is the basis for the "Oman/theo" connexion?

Some recent thoughts (which I hadn't yet mentioned): Oman had small disputes with both theo and pwayne during day 1. He voted for each of them at some point. But if I recall correctly, Oman's dispute with theo was relatively early in the day, and nothing much came of it (no major bandwagon). But Oman's dispute with pwayne was near the end of the day, and at the time, it looked like pwayne might actually be the lynch. Oman pushed for his scummate's lynch during day 1, when there were other bandwagons (Kakeng, for one) to push for? Risky. Maybe too risky. So I can't help but think that it's Oman-theo.

One other thing I should mention: my thoughts on who the vig might be are also coming into play here. If I think someone is likely to be the vig, I naturally won't think that person is likely to be scum. So as not to help the scum, I won't say WHO I think the vig is. Just so you know that I'm thinking about it.

(Of course, I could be the vig myself, and perhaps I'm just trying to confuse the scum. You never know, you scumzorz! )

[Trojan Horse]

You're forgetting the vig, MoS. We have TWO chances to nail our first scum; the lynch today, and the vig kill tonight. If we no lynch, we lose one of those chances.

No lynch is a BAD IDEA.

[Trojan Horse]

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

...

I'll comment on the game when I have time. I haven't read anything from this day yet, so it seems odd that you would imply that I'm scummy for making the no lynch suggestion when the numbers are in our favor.

I think having a lynch and a vig kill as chances for hitting a scum is preferable to having just a lynch. And "just a lynch" is what we'll have if we no lynch today (assuming the vig does not kill tonight).

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

Take some time to think about it, MoS. This is an unusual situation. No lynch is a bad idea.

[Trojan Horse]

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

[Trojan Horse]

I've thought about it a lot. No lynch is a great idea, and I'm having a hard time understanding why you are so reliant on power roles at this juncture of the game.

I'm not trying to be "reliant" on the power roles per se. I'm just trying to make full use of them. We have a protown player somewhere who can shoot a scum dead. Why shouldn't we take advantage of that?

You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game.

True, a no lynch (followed by a no vig) does improve our chances of hitting scum with our next lynch. But it also gives up a chance for the vig to shoot a scum. "Lynch at 6" + "Vig at 5" is a better chance than "Lynch at 5".

*sigh*

I'll take some extra time to think about this. But I really doubt you can convince me that a no lynch is the way to go.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, gave it some thought. While my opinions have shifted slightly, I still think we need to lynch someone today.

Here's why: let's assume that the vig does not kill anymore, as MoS wants. (And actually, I now think that it IS best that the vig doesn't kill, unless it's necessary to save the game.) So day 4 dawns with 5 players left, and now we must lynch both scum, one by one. And what happens if we do? If there's a surviving cultie, we STILL lose. The vig would have to be the other survivor at the end for us to win, and I really doubt the scum would miss the vig with both of their nightkills.

That's the one thing MoS's plan doesn't cover: the chance that a cultie survives to the end, and that the vig does not. Pretty likely to happen too; if there is a cultie, it's probably Tar, and the scum aren't going to kill him. In that scenario, we have no time to spare: we must lynch a scum now, then another day 4, then finally lynch the cultie day 5. Add to that the fact that the vig can save us if we mislynch now (while he can't if we no lynch now and THEN mislynch day 4), and I'm convinced that we must lynch someone now.

Having said that, I'm ready to concede that if we do successfully lynch a scum now, the vig shouldn't kill tonight. Too risky that we'll end up 1:1:1 (without a vig) if the vig does kill, and that'll leave us with no chance to win. But we do need to lynch now. And if we mislynch, the vig must kill tonight, of course.

[Trojan Horse]

Gladly.

1.

Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4?

If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

2.

Why are you so sure Tar is the cultist?

I'm not totally sure. It's possible that there is no cultist; perhaps CKD tried to recruit, and failed. But if there is a cultist, Tar is the likeliest, since he revealed himself to be a vanilla townie day 1.

3.

Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same.

Because the scum are more interested in killing the vig than the cultie. If they figure out who the vig is, the vig is dead meat. If they figure out who the cultie is, they'll let him live, and shoot someone likelier to be the vig.

4.

How do you know Tar is NOT the vig?

Do you think he would've pulled those antics day 1 if he was the vig? That's even less likely than him doing it as scum.

5.

Why can't the vig kill the next night instead of tonight, if we no lynch today?

I never said the vig should kill tonight if we no lynch today. He definitely shouldn't. And he definitely should kill night 4, if things go no lynch- no vig- mislynch up to that point. But that can only get us a draw, and we'll probably lose, as I said for #1.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay. I think we may have struck a problem. The 1:1:1 scenario requires No Lynch and cross-kills to win. As I said, the mafia will go for the cultist and the cultist will go for the mafia, each hoping the other takes out the townie.

Cross-kills?? What cross-kills? The cultist (if there is one) doesn't have a nightkill. If it gets down to 1:1:1, we are 100% toast unless the final protown player is the vig. (Then the scum can be lynched, and the vig can kill the cultist.)

[Trojan Horse]

So I was asking what's keeping us from saving the vig kill until tomorrow night so that we can no lynch today and drastically improve our odds for both lynching AND vigging scum?

If we mislynch today, a successful vig kill tonight allows us to still have a chance to win. (We can win a 1:1:1 situation if our protown player is the vig.) After no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, all a vig kill can do is give us a chance to draw. That's the difference.

*sigh again*

I'll do some more pondering about this.

As for your last comment, MoS: yes, Tar was the first to suggest a mass claim today. But Oman later said he'd be okay with that, as did your predecessor, theo. For any of the three, it could have just been carelessness.

[Trojan Horse]

Heh. Just realized something else, MoS. I guess you and I are both hypocrites when it comes to judging what kind of risks our fellow players would take. I think CKD could very well have taken the risk and recruited the obvious recruit, Tar. But I don't think Tar would've taken the risk and acted as he did during day 1, if he was vig. You think CKD wouldn't take the risk, but Tar would.

I guess we're even, then.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, I am in deep shock right now, for two reasons:

1. that Oman was the vig (not only did I think he was scum, but why would the vig say that he was willing to mass claim?)
2. that the scum chose to kill him, considering he is the one person the rest of us were suspecting to be scum.

Also, I would just like to point out that if there is a cultie out there right now, the town has lost, unless the scum are kindly enough to kill the cultie off tonight. This is the main reason I didn't want to no lynch- it doesn't leave us enough time to lynch both of the scum and the cultie. Anyway, it's too late now. I'm going to assume that there is no cultie around, since we have very little hope if there is.

Next, NOBODY VOTE until we have all agreed on who should be lynched. A quick-lynch would end the game for us. Until we've agreed on a target, we need to rely on FoSes.

Finally, should we mass-claim now? No more vig to protect, so I think there's no reason not to.

[Trojan Horse]

By the way: because vollkan hammered no lynch 6 minutes after Oman added his vote, and because he hammered before pwayne had a chance to weigh in on the no lynch plan...

MegaFoS: vollkan

[Trojan Horse]

If I may make a suggestion: since Tar already claimed vanilla townie, I think he should decide which of the other four of us should claim first. Then that person picks the next person, and so on.

Any objections?

[Trojan Horse]

I am also a vanilla townie. So that's 4 of us claiming vanilla townie, including Tar.

MoS?

[Trojan Horse]

So we don't have any protown power roles left. Figures. If we're finally going to take down these scum, we'll have to rely on brains and votes only.

Okay. I know that I have been bemoaning my broken scumdar for most of the game. (Ok, for ALL of the game.) But now, I think I'm finally starting to see the light. I'm working on a post which will put all of my arguments together; I'll post it as soon as I'm done. (Won't take much longer.) But in the meantime, I have a question for MoS:

Yes, Yes, Yes, aaaaaannndddd yes! However, not for all the reasons you might think. =P

That was in response to pwayne's question about whether we should massclaim. MoS, care to clarify what those reasons were? Was there someone you suspected, and you were waiting to find out what his claim was? Or was it some other reason?

[Trojan Horse]

You know you have been playing too much mafia when...

...you wake up very early in the morning, and you can't get back to sleep, because you're too excited about one of your mafia games.

Yep, that's me. Can't post this in the TMM thread yet, since it references an ongoing game. But I might as well post it here.

So, no clarifications, MoS? Fair enough. Guess I'll have to make my big case based on what I've got. Post forthcoming.

[Trojan Horse]

Mod edit:

Still 0 votes

Alright. It's time to lay all my cards on the table, and make my big case as to who I think is scum. Please excuse the length of this post; it's a lot of words, but I have a lot to say.

When day 4 started, I was confused as to why Oman was selected as the mafia's nightkill target. Why kill off the player who was the most suspected at that point? Why not get rid of someone not so suspicious? Most likely, they chose Oman since they thought he was most likely to be the vig. (If they knew he was the vig, he'd be the obvious kill choice, despite how scummy he looked to everyone else.) But how could they believe that Oman was the vig? He hadn't dropped any vig tells, as far as I could see. Was it just luck that they hit the vig, as MoS suggested in this post?

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking.

I don't think it was luck at all. You know what I think? They probably have an information role on their team; perhaps they have a mafia rolecop, or a mafia tracker, or a mafia watcher. In any case, they investigated Oman night 2, and they got some information which led them to conclude that Oman was the vig. So they killed him last night. That makes much more sense than the suggestion that they just decided to kill the scummiest protown player, and they just happened to hit the vig.

Now, put yourself in a mafia member's shoes. Day 3 has just dawned. There are 6 players left: yourself, your scummate, the vig, and 3 other players. You just found out that Oman is the vig. As it is, the town has three chances left to pick off you and your scummate: two lynches, and one vig kill. If two of the three succeed, you're toast. You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

A perfect plan. It's a suggestion that you can make without looking scummy, since a reasonable case can be made that a no lynch helps the town. (I didn't buy MoS's case for a no lynch, but at the time, I didn't think he was scummy for making it.) Once the no lynch is made, the vig will obviously not kill the following night (that would be stupid). So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

It should be obvious now that I think theo/MoS is scum. As a bit of a final note on MoS, I'd like to quote a particular post of his. This is from post 1425, which came during his argument with me over whether we should lynch or no lynch.

Also, mafia would want to lynch today, because that gives them the best chance of winning. There is no way to prevent the vig from killing tonight if we mislynch, because it's the obvious thing. However, by lynching today, the scum have a chance of smoking the vig out in the open with a bandwagon, which means they can kill the vig and hope that the vig misses his 50% chance of hitting scum.

Ah, MoS. So slick. So sneaky. You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy. So now I'm glad that we went along with your plan and no lynched. Gave us the chance figure out that YOU'RE scum.

So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.

(Incidentally, even though I think vollkan is scum, I believe vollkan when he says he didn't realize he was hammering no lynch. I'm sure he honestly missed the 50% rule; otherwise, he wouldn't have voted so quickly after Oman did. I think he was just trying to be #3 on the bandwagon, and have someone else be the hammering vote.)

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

[Trojan Horse]

...

That was in response to pwayne's question about whether we should massclaim. MoS, care to clarify what those reasons were? Was there someone you suspected, and you were waiting to find out what his claim was? Or was it some other reason?

Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!

Yes, I did want to see who you suspected before I made my case. Was hoping you might give me something that would link you to your scummate. You gave me nothing. Smart move. We'll have to settle for lynching you and agonizing over who your scummate is.

Funny that you all of a sudden believe the scum had a power role...With there being a cult AND 2 mafia, I wouldn't think the mafia would have much power with only a roleblocker and vig on our side. This suggestion of yours makes so much sense it's pretty clear you're coming with outside information here.

Or, it makes so much sense because I'm right. I "all of a sudden" started believing that the scum had a power role because I realized it's the best explanation for Oman's death. Don't think the scum would have shot the scummiest-looking player if they didn't know he was the vig.

And as for the point about play balance: a vig is a strong role, don't forget. One lucky shot, and the scum could have been cut in half just like that. Makes sense that the mod would give the scum SOME power role to help in locating the vig.

...
You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

Except that if I was scum, that would be the most retarded plan ever. If I knew Oman was the vig, I would want him to kill that night after mislynching. Because his top two suspects were

YOU

, Troj, and

Tar

, the person you have so slyly asserted is probably protown based on the ballsy antics he pulled Day 1.

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

Not that you ever consider the fact that mafia claiming vanilla townie baits the cult into failing on a recruit, which helps the mafia.

I didn't buy Tar's claim when he first made it. I definitely considered the possibility that he was scum trying to act townish. Also, I wasn't happy about his self-vote and immediate unvote that he made when he claimed. But when it looked like Tar might be lynched, he voted for himself AGAIN, saying that he'd rather have a recruitable townie (himself) lynched than a non-recruitable one (Kakeng). That's a bit too bold a move for a scum to pull off. If he's your scummate, then you two deserve to win.

...

So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

One

more

mislynch?

I meant one mislynch in addition to our mislynches earlier in the game.

If we didn't no lynch, the game would probably have been over already, from your perspective. Oman would've killed you or Tar, and we probably would've lynched the other one, both of whom you assert are protown. If I was scum, I'd be all over a plan like that.

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

...

You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy.

...

Exactly why your theory here is bullshit. Why would I fight

against

a plan that would make me look super-protown?

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

Hell, I could counterclaim him and get him lynched, because he did not look at all like the vig. If I was scum, Oman would've been lynched, and the game would be over already.

Wrong. You're an experienced player, MoS. You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

...

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

And here Trojan uses an appeal to emotion. Nice fallacy.

This is the first time all game that I've had any confidence that someone is scum. I can't help but be a little dramatic.

[Trojan Horse]

Church related things tomorrow. Not sure when I'll be back home. So I'll do what I can right now.

Prove No Lynch was the worser option. Then come back and make this accusation.

Okay.

Let's assume for the moment that things are totally random, and that there are no worries about a cultie (later, I'll discuss the things that change when we don't assume those things). If we lynched day 3, we would have had a 4/6 chance of hitting a protown player. Then the vig would have to take a shot, and would have a 2/4 chance of shooting a good guy (he knows he personally isn't scum). Both those things have go wrong for us not to survive to the 3-player endgame: a 2/6 chance overall. In contrast, having no-lynched, we now have (assuming randomness again) a 3/5 chance of mislynching and losing the game. Sounds like a worse chance to me.

Now, it was mentioned that if things went no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, that we wouldn't be COMPLETELY dead; the vig could still shoot a scum and draw the game. This is true. But think about this: to save us, the vig would have to guess right (a 2/3 chance at that point, which is good), and the scum would have to miss the vig on both of their nightkill attempts (a 3/4 chance night 3, and only a 1/2 chance night 4). So overall, when we no lynch day 3 and mislynch day 4, the vig has only a (2/3)(3/4)(1/2)=1/4 chance of saving us, and that only forces a draw. Enough to tip the scales in no-lynch's favor? I don't think so.

Of course, if we don't assume randomness, things change. MoS made the point that if we tried to lynch someone day 3, we'd likely expose the vig. (Of course, that ignores the chance that the mafia already figured out who the vig is, but that's another story.) But what about the chance that the vig would be exposed during day 4? That would end any chance of the vig saving us after a mislynch. We would have to get it right during day 4. We'd have a 50% chance of success at that point, since the vig would be confirmed. (Counterclaims? I'll deal with that in a minute.) But that 50% still doesn't match up with the 4/6 chance we'd have of hitting scum if we lynched day 3; remember, we'd then have the chance of a successful lynch AND the chance of a successful vig kill. So the chance of an exposed vig still doesn't make no-lynch the better option.

Now, what about the cultie issue? I think it's pretty clear now that the chance of a cultie made the no-lynch idea even worse (as I tried to explain day 3). We now cannot win if there is a cultie, unless the scum help us out by killing him off (not likely). But during day 3, we still had a chance to lynch the scum and the cultie. We had just enough time to do it: lynch scum day 3, lynch scum day 4, lynch cultie day 5. We don't have enough time to do it now.

Does that prove that no-lynch was anti-town? I wish I had had the time to explain things more fully during day 3. Too late now.

Finally, about the counterclaims issue:

Yesterday it was 4:2.

Oman vig claims. ScumMoS counters. I, for one, would most likely believe MoS.

Now, if we decided not to lynch either, we would stand the likelihood of mislynch, making it 3:2. Mafia NK Oman. Oman NKs scumMoS.
That makes it 3:1 with no vig.

In contrast, if we lynched the scumvig it goes to 4:1. MafiaNK of the vig makes it 3:1 with no vig. Exactly the same.

Actually, if we mislynched, and if vig and scum then killed each other off, it would be 2:1, not 3:1. But why lynch anyone at that point? Because of my fears of there being a cultie (and needing time to lynch the scum and the cultie), I would've suggested a no-lynch at that point (the only real case where I think no-lynch would help the town). That would put us at 3:1 without a vig, with time to lynch the scum and the cultie if necessary.

Yes, that's exactly the same as if we lynched the scumvig and if the scum then killed the real vig. But I think you've just proven my point. By lynching neither claimed vig (and no-lynching instead), we are assured of getting to the 3:1 situation. By lynching one of the claimed vigs, we have a chance of getting to the same 3:1 situation, and a chance of losing the game immediately (by mislynching). So it's definitely best to not lynch either claimed vig.

Anyway, we'll see what pwayne and Tar have to say about all this.

[Trojan Horse]

Heading out the door now. Full response when I have the chance. I just have time for one quick question right now:

MoS: why do you keep saying that we have a 50% chance of hitting scum right now? 2/5=40%, last time I checked.

[Trojan Horse]

...

Or, it makes so much sense because I'm right. I "all of a sudden" started believing that the scum had a power role because I realized it's the best explanation for Oman's death. Don't think the scum would have shot the scummiest-looking player if they didn't know he was the vig.

Hence my "wtf" reaction, which you seem to take scumminess from, even though it's fairly reasonable, since even you admit that the scum wouldn't have shot the scummiest-looking player.

Nope, I don't take any scumminess from your "wtf" reaction. That reaction was perfectly normal. I take scumminess from other things, primarily from your call for a no lynch.

The vig is a strong role that is EXTREMELY swingy. If the vig kills and kills wrong, it can really swing the game in the wrong way, since we're fighting a cult. With 2 kills a night AND a recruit, the cult could have quickly grown. With 2 scumgroups that the vig has to worry about, I wouldn't have thought it that unbalanced to have the setup as we know it (1 cult, 2 mafia, 1 vig, 1 RB, rest townies). A scum power role doesn't make it too much in favor of the mafia, but I certainly wouldn't have considered it a possibility until you "thought of it".

No argument from me that the vig role is swingy. It definitely is. Also, no argument from me that having a mafia power role isn't immediately obvious. The thought certainly hadn't entered my head until several hours after day 4 dawned. But unless the scum picked up on a vigtell that I didn't see, I can't think of any other reasonable explanation for Oman's death.

...

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

See, now you're countering your own arguments here. You're the one that said we should make use of the vig and lynch yesterday. If that's a valid argument, why are you agreeing with me that we

shouldn't

rely on the vig? Nice contradiction there, though.

Where's the contradiction? I said that the town can't DEPEND on the vig making good use of his shots. So, for example, if we only have one chance of hitting a scum, it's better that we use a lynch (where we all contribute to the discussion) than a vig kill. But when we were in day 3, we didn't just have one chance of hitting our first scum; we had TWO. One lynch, and (if that failed) one vig kill. Why not pool our chances?

This next quote from MoS was in response to my claims that Tar's antics make him unlikely to be scum.

Really? You don't think that a scum in a sinking ship with an established meta for acting crazy would act crazy when he's about to get lynched? That's awfully generous of you. I'm sure Tar is happy that you think that.

The ship wasn't just sinking. Water was about to come over the deck. No time for continued antics, if he was scum. I will say one thing, though. While I think RIGHT NOW that it is very unlikely that Tar is scum, my convictions will be shaken if Tar and I are both in the final 3 (with just one scum left to be found). That would seem too much like a perfect setup for me; the 3rd guy would be so "clearly" scum, that I would inevitably wonder if I was wrong, and that Tar was scum all along.

Tar's not 100% off my list. Close, but not quite.

...

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

Except that letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum, and they STILL have a good chance of winning if he kills.

"Letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum." Glad to see you finally agree with me.

...

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

So, I had a backup plan that had a greater chance of success than the main plan? My looking super-townie means that Oman is not going to kill me, and I can pretty much push a lynch on whoever I want. If Oman isn't going to kill me, that means he has a 66% chance of shooting

wrong

after we lynch another townie, which is a damn good chance of me winning if I'm scum. A lot better than the chances I would have right now.

No, your backup plan didn't have a greater chance of success than the main plan. Getting rid of the vig without having him kill would be best for the scum in any case. If you couldn't pull that off, you could at least try to not look scummy. But that isn't as good a scenario from your perspective. Just how non-scummy would you look? You might get lynched/vigged anyway. Getting rid of the vig was the best case scenario for the scum.

...

You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

Trading a scum for a vig is a pretty good deal, if I'm that worried about him, as you seem to think I would be.

I could see a scum claiming vig early in day 3, so as to draw out the real vig (assuming they didn't already know who the vig was). But that has its risks. The vig could simply sit back and not counterclaim. No real need to, since he can just shoot the scum night 3 anyway. But the vig might not think of that, so that's a possible scum tactic.

What I CAN'T see is the scum claiming vig AFTER the real vig has claimed. The vig has been exposed. The scum can kill him off at night. Why should the scum expose one of their own? The town would leave both claimed vigs alone, and let them kill each other off. Counterclaiming the vig would be a total waste. (As you should know, MoS. You must have seen this situation a bunch of times before.)

[Trojan Horse]

MoS, you're a veteran at this site, and you've never discussed what the town should do if two people claim vig? I thought that was one of the classic scenarios. (I'd certainly seen it before, and most of my experience of playing mafia comes from scumchat.) Don't think I buy it.

Eh, we could argue back and forth like this for weeks. I want to hear (and answer) whatever questions vollkan, pwayne, and Tar have. Then we'll start making some progress.

[Trojan Horse]

Say what?

*looks*

You know what? I'd also very much like to know why, Tar.

Thanks for pointing that out, pwayne. I noticed his lack of posting here, but I didn't realize he was posting elsewhere.

Oh, and about the possibility that MoS forged the dice roll thing: heh. I do think he's scum, but I don't think he'd pull a stunt like that, even if it were possible.

[Trojan Horse]

Tuesday's gone. Wednesday's here. Still awaiting Tar's opinions.

[Trojan Horse]

Vollkan: probably scum
MoS: leaning scum
Pwayne: not sure
Trojan Horse: leaning town
Tar: judge for yourself

I like Tar's ultimate conclusions, but I definitely don't like how he got there.

Another Vollkan post that gives information/game theory instead of scumhunting.

So you quote a bunch of vollkan's posts where various kinds of information are given, and then because those particular posts weren't focused on scumhunting, vollkan is probably scum? Bah. Vollkan has done plenty of scumhunting, if my memory serves me right. (I certainly remember the scumhunting he has done against ME.) I'll take another look through vollkan's posts to see what he has done, but I'm sure I'll find a reasonable share of scumhunting.

[Trojan Horse]

*bump* to get this thread above the ones that MeMe just locked.

Thanksgiving weekend is drawing to a close; maybe now we can get back to work. I'm interested in hearing pwayne's reactions to these last several posts.

[Trojan Horse]

I find it interesting that you have and, I shall presume, continue to argue so firmly that Tar must be pro-town.

You'd presume wrong. Still think he's more likely protown than not, but after he made such a flimsy case against you, I'm now having my doubts.

Additionally, correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the crux of your case against myself and MoS revolving around the No Lynch issue, which I think has already been dealt with.

True, that was the crux of the case, but it was more of a case against MoS than against you. The only thing I had against you is that you decided that MoS's arguments for No Lynch were good, and so you voted No Lynch. Not much of a case against you, considering Oman did the same thing, and he was protown.

[Trojan Horse]

Also, I just reread this:

So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.

(Incidentally, even though I think vollkan is scum, I believe vollkan when he says he didn't realize he was hammering no lynch. I'm sure he honestly missed the 50% rule; otherwise, he wouldn't have voted so quickly after Oman did. I think he was just trying to be #3 on the bandwagon, and have someone else be the hammering vote.)

In your most recent post, you said it doesn't mean much, and you say even in this older post that you were "looking for harder evidence", although you still say that you think I am scum, with no explanation. And you take this to the extent of inferring that I voted No Lynch to avoid being the hammerer (can you explain what you mean by this?)

When I said "I think vollkan is scum", I said that because you're #2 on my list, vollkan. I think pwayne is slightly less scummy than you (because he didn't vote no lynch yesterday), and I think Tar is slightly less scummy than pwayne. Yes, only slightly now. That weak case Tar made against you has given me second thoughts.

I know, I know, we've discussed whether or not no lynch was the right move yesterday, and a few of you have concluded that it was. I'll reread your arguments, but I doubt I'll be convinced. Had there been no chance of a cultie still being alive, perhaps you could've convinced me that no lynch was the right move. But if there is a cultie out there, then we've just given up our chance to lynch all 3 baddies. Now we need some luck. So I still think no lynch was the wrong move.

As for my comment about the hammering vote: if a lynch goes bad (as our no lynch definitely did, given that the vig got killed), whoever is the hammering vote is naturally going to be under suspicion. Whether that suspicion is warranted or not. So naturally, a scum wouldn't want to be the hammering vote. But let me make it clear: I dont think that the fact that you were SPECIFICALLY the hammering vote makes you any scummier.

[Trojan Horse]

Incidentally, I'd like everyone's take on my other point against MoS:

Also, mafia would want to lynch today, because that gives them the best chance of winning. There is no way to prevent the vig from killing tonight if we mislynch, because it's the obvious thing.

However, by lynching today, the scum have a chance of smoking the vig out in the open with a bandwagon, which means they can kill the vig and hope that the vig misses his 50% chance of hitting scum.

Even if the vig hits scum, 2:1 with a dead vig is decent odds for the mafia. Right now our odds are 4:2, and I'd prefer to have chances at scum at 3:2 and 2:1 than just hope that we'll reach 2:1 through a lucky vig kill.

This was a post from day 3; I added in the bolding for emphasis. I would like to point out that if we had gone ahead and tried to lynch someone during day 3, then we most likely would've forced Oman to claim. So indeed, the vig would've been "smoked out in the open".

Makes me think MoS had some inside information.

[Trojan Horse]

I'd like to refer you all back to this post for a more extensive case against theo/Mos, on top of what I already said.

(Okay, this PBPA of theo isn't completely a case against him. But I figured I better put a link to it anyway. Turnabout is fair play, MoS. )

[Trojan Horse]

First up, I don't see why you need to counter a case on yourself with a case on MoS. Turnabout is not unfair (Why on earth did you cal it "fair play", like that is a justification?), but that doesn't explain why you just reciprocated.

He didn't make a case against me. He just pointed to an earlier case made against me; a case that I had already responded to. If he had asked me to respond to certain things, I would have. But he didn't. What was there for me to respond to? Figured I should just do the same thing back to him.

Also, that PBPA was not a case, at all.

I know, but it was the best I could do at that moment.

[Trojan Horse]

To remind the group of how scummy I looked at that point?

[Trojan Horse]

Apologies for the lack of posts. I was running around all day today, and I'll be doing the same tomorrow. I just have time to respond to vollkan's final paragraph right now. If there's anything else you want me to give top priority to, please say so. (I'll have time for another quick post tomorrow, but probably not time enough for a lengthy one.)

The interesting thing here is that TH never engages me on the point I raised ("What about the fact that town can also lurk") by relying on the nightmare scenarios of the game degenerating or of scum lurking to victory. It's a sort of slipper-slope thing. Rather than explaining why potentially lynching a townie at that point was justified, he focuses on the worst possible consequences.

I know full well the town can also lurk. And that's what I'd like to prevent. My hope when I push for a lurker lynch is that the lurker will stop lurking, and then we won't have to lynch them. It's a threat. Now, if they won't respond to the threat, why not lynch them? In that case, they're either scum (and lynching them is good) or they're an unhelpful town (and lynching them is not so good, but at least the more helpful townies stay around). And perhaps after that lurker is lynched, the rest of the town will think twice about doing the same.

You'll note that I never pushed for a Tar lynch, despite his uber-lurking. That's because I felt that he was town (although my confidence in that has been shaken now). In the case of Flameaxe, I considered him of above average scumminess. Also, he did some lurking at a key moment: at the end of day 1, when we were all scrambling to find a lynch. So I felt a lurker-lynch of Flameaxe was justified.

So I'm not in favor of lynching all lurkers. But some should be lynched, and at least the threat of doing so can do some good.

Was there a specific push for a lurker lynch I made, which bothered you? Was it my push against Flameaxe, or was it something else I've forgotten?

[Trojan Horse]

It's getting tough for me to envision a scenario where I no longer believe that MoS is scum. I'm tempted to just vote for MoS and be done with it.

I'll resist that temptation, though, until pwayne has had a chance to weigh in.

[Trojan Horse]

Incidentally, as far as lurker-lynches go, I'm starting to get tempted again. Tar has made 7 posts in other mafia games since his last post in this one. He says he has limited access (and I believe it), but apparently he has found time during that limited access to do some posting in other games. Why not here?

So far, vollkan and MoS are the two players that have come the hardest against me (not surprisingly, considering that I've argued against them). This makes me wonder if I actually got things right, or if the scum are actually pwayne and Tar, and they're just sitting back and waiting to claim their win. I don't like this.

(I know, I just said it would be hard to envision a scenario where I no longer think that MoS is scum. Well, my thoughts are shifting a bit.)

[Trojan Horse]

But we wouldn't have lynched Oman. Eventually, he would've claimed vig. And unless some scum counterclaimed (which would've been incredibly stupid), we would've believed Oman, and lynched someone else.

[Trojan Horse]

(@TH - It's pretty clear that scum counterclaiming well yesterday would not have been "incredibly stupid")

Okay. Last time.

Two people claim vig. We know one is vig and one is scum. What do we do? We don't risk a guess. We no-lynch (the one case where I would've favored a no-lynch). Let the vig and the scum take each other out. No guesswork needed.

Scum counterclaiming vig would've been incredibly stupid. It would've meant certain death for that scum.

Am I the only one who has heard of this situation before?

[Trojan Horse]

Normally, both actions would be processed. In fact, that's a pretty big "normally"; so big, that I'd hope that a mod who did otherwise would warn the group ahead of time.

[Trojan Horse]

I could see a scum claiming vig early in day 3, so as to draw out the real vig (assuming they didn't already know who the vig was). But that has its risks. The vig could simply sit back and not counterclaim. No real need to, since he can just shoot the scum night 3 anyway. But the vig might not think of that, so that's a possible scum tactic.

What I CAN'T see is the scum claiming vig AFTER the real vig has claimed. The vig has been exposed. The scum can kill him off at night. Why should the scum expose one of their own? The town would leave both claimed vigs alone, and let them kill each other off. Counterclaiming the vig would be a total waste. (As you should know, MoS. You must have seen this situation a bunch of times before.)

I actually don't think I've ever seen that scenario. It didn't occur to me until you mentioned it the first time, and I'm clearly not the only one who didn't think of it. Clearly you've put more thought into the ramifications of scum strategies than the rest of us.

[Trojan Horse]

I can believe that you've never heard of this scenario before, pwayne. I can also believe that vollkan has never heard of it. But I find it strange that MoS said HE has never heard of it. Perhaps it never came up in any of his forum games, but it must have come up in a scumchat game, or at least in the mafia discussion forum. MoS is a veteran. I'd think he would've heard about the counterclaiming vig scenario before.

(As for why I've heard of it: I played in a Texas Justice Mafia game on the Grey Labyrinth a while back. It also came up in one of my scumchat games.)

[Trojan Horse]

I want to limit my replies to tyhess's observations, since he said to lay off until he has done the full reread (a reasonable request). I will say a couple of things:

1. Since tyhess is speculating about which nightkills were from the vig and which were from the scum, I'll say that probably CKD was the scumkill Night 1. I know that Oman was telling White to leave him alone during day 1, so it would make sense that Oman would vig White night 1. So I think tyhess was right on that point. Night 2? I have no clue on that one.

2. Thanks for pointing out post 1419. Missed that one.

[Trojan Horse]

Oh man. What a long day. Just my luck that I'd have to give all of my finals on the same day.

Just posting to let you know that I'm still around, and I'm still watching the thread. But I don't think I could contribute much right now, in my current state. It'll have to wait until I've had some sleep.

I'll be at home tomorrow. Expect some content then.

[Trojan Horse]

Aw, you didn't have to wait for me. You could've kept posting.

Where were links to TH mentioned?

Tyhess mentioned it right here, in post 1560:

Post 1311 and 1312 by TH and vollkan look to me as if they are scum partners......

What was this supposed connection between me and vollkan? I looked it up, and I don't see what tyhess is talking about.

Post 1311:

Gack! Not the final installment ; I was being too optimistic. I still need to do Tar, TH and Pwayne.

I might go lazy and not do TH since he has been done adequately by theo.

Post 1312:

Besides, pwayne is working on mine. So don't worry about it.

Just do Tar's. His is easy. We can fight over who will do one for pwayne later.

I've got about 20 posts to go for vollkan. I'll post the full PBPA either later today or tomorrow.

Those were from when we were divvying up PBPA's. And this is supposed to be a connection between us?? I don't get it.

Another thing:

Tyhess, can you explain how I "seem to know more than everyone else"? What do I know more than everyone? What information do you think I have, and how does it make me scum?

I may be putting words in tyhess's mouth, but it seems like he's agreeing with me that you may have had some info that Oman was the vig. Let me re-quote the two posts from you that he mentioned, and add in a third quote:

From post 1419:

You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game.

From post 1437:

That's why we should no lynch before the mafia have the chance to find out who the vig is. The more information we give them, the better chance they have. I don't think it's very obvious right now who it is, though.

From post 1458:

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking. Leaving Oman alive with their ticket to freedom, I would've been all over his ass today...that's just scary. Even in a counterclaim situation I would've voted Oman. So the town just got another chance at winning the game through that Oman kill. Thanks scum. You really did yourself in this time. [/gratuitous scumtell paragraph]

See a pattern?

[Trojan Horse]

No, Trojan, I don't see a pattern. Please explain how, as town, I would not have had that reaction when Oman came up dead, which would imply that I knew he was vig. In that case, please explain how I, as town, would have figured out that Oman was the vig.

Okay, so the third quote from you was from after Oman was revealed to be the vig, and that was a normal reaction. But the other two quotes were from the preceding day, and they sounded like you knew who the vig was.

Let me ask you all the same question that MoS I (his first incarnation, the protown one that was nightkilled) asked when it looked like he was going to be lynched. If all four of you are now so sure that I'm scum (which I'm not), who do you think is bussing me right now?

[Trojan Horse]

Doubt you'll get any complaining, Guardian. Don't see what can be said that hasn't been said already.

What more do you want me to say? I don't see how the scum could've located the vig without some inside info, and MoS's actions during day 3 make me think that he had that inside info. If you have a better explanation for Oman's death last night, let me hear it.

(Actually, I think I know what MoS's explanation will be.)

[Trojan Horse]

That, and his pushing for a no lynch. I know, you said that no lynch was the right move to make, and apparently the rest of the group was convinced. But not me. (No need to rehash the arguments again. I know what they are.)

[Trojan Horse]

If Oman had not died, I would've continued to suspect Oman until he (inevitably) claimed vig. Once he did so, I would've been satisfied with that (and if someone counterclaimed, I would've pushed for a no lynch). Would I then have suspected MoS? MoS would probably have been only of average scumminess to me at that point.

[Trojan Horse]

Well, if MoS isn't scum, then scum will eventually pile on me and win. So I guess I have nothing to lose now:

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

[Trojan Horse]

Looked over my posts. There were a couple of places where I expressed concern over the vig getting killed, although my concern was about the vig getting killed on EITHER of the next 2 nights. I didn't focus on the possibility of the vig getting killed the very next night.

From post 1426:

Okay, gave it some thought. While my opinions have shifted slightly, I still think we need to lynch someone today.

Here's why: let's assume that the vig does not kill anymore, as MoS wants. (And actually, I now think that it IS best that the vig doesn't kill, unless it's necessary to save the game.) So day 4 dawns with 5 players left, and now we must lynch both scum, one by one. And what happens if we do? If there's a surviving cultie, we STILL lose. The vig would have to be the other survivor at the end for us to win, and I really doubt the scum would miss the vig with both of their nightkills.

That's the one thing MoS's plan doesn't cover: the chance that a cultie survives to the end, and that the vig does not. Pretty likely to happen too; if there is a cultie, it's probably Tar, and the scum aren't going to kill him.

From post 1428 (the bold is from the preceding post by MoS, and the rest is my response):

1. Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4?

If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

...

3.

Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same.

Because the scum are more interested in killing the vig than the cultie. If they figure out who the vig is, the vig is dead meat. If they figure out who the cultie is, they'll let him live, and shoot someone likelier to be the vig.

[Trojan Horse]

Simple probability. Remember, I said that it was likely that the vig would die during one of the next two nights, not necessarily the next night.

The scenario we were discussing was where we no-lynch/no-vig, and then if we mislynch, the vig can try to save us the following night. Assuming the scum had no info about who the vig was, they would first have a 1 in 4 shot of hitting the vig, and then a 1 in 2 shot. And if the scum did have any idea about who the vig might be, the odds would be even more in their favor.

[Trojan Horse]

*bangs head against wall*

3/4 chance of missing the vig on their first attempt. And if they missed, 1/2 chance of missing the vig on their second attempt. All together, 3/8 chance of missing on both attempts; 5/8 chance of hitting on either attempt. And that's if they chose randomly; the real chances would be higher. If it got down to 2 mafia, 1 vig, and 1 other protowner (which is the best we could have after no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch), I think the odds would be much greater than 50-50 of the scum hitting the vig that night.

Learn some math, MoS.

[Trojan Horse]

Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a

1/3

chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%.

I saw the "2 in 6". I saw the "1/3". I focused in on that. You were way off saying that there was only a 1/3 chance of hitting the vig. But somehow, that 66% registered in my mind as you saying there was a 66% chance of them MISSING the vig. Misread that part.

I'm still trying to fathom why

she

bothered to prove that I overestimated the chances of the vig dying...

Uh, I sure hope that was another typo, MoS

[Trojan Horse]

As much as I like having the mod not count the vote being cast against me , I really have to point out his mistake. MoS is voting for me, Iammars.

[Trojan Horse]

Just posting to say I'm still alive and still watching. Don't know how much access I'll have the next few days, but I'll do my best.

[Trojan Horse]

And the clock continues to tick.

Come on, you guys. I know we just had Christmas and all that, but it's time to make the final decision. I don't want the scum to win because the clock ran out. (Actually, I don't want the scum to win by ANY method, but that's another story.)

I'm here. I've cast my vote. Interrogate me. Ask me what you want. Let's nail our first scum. (I mean MoS, of course.)

[Trojan Horse]

So what? Was I right about MoS/theo, or were you two (vollkan & pwayne) BOTH scum?

I can't wait to see all the upcoming scathing posts about how I played this game...

[Trojan Horse]

- We knew that the vig had killed White and tyhess, so all I did was look over every one of the remaining town players to see who had suspected both White and tyhess. Oman came in front for both of them by a long shot: he was the only person to suspect both AND he had reasonably strong suspicions of both.

Of course, you had the advantage of knowing who the scum were and who the scum killed. Without that info, I had come to a very different conclusion. Pwayne had put MoS at the top of his suspects list during day 2, and then MoS was killed during night 2. So during day 3, I thought PWAYNE was the vig!

So, theo/MoS was the recruit all along. MoS, please tell me that's the reason why you pushed for a no lynch during day 3, and that you wouldn't have done so if you had been town. (If you would've pushed for no lynch regardless, then I'll feel REALLY stupid.)