Mini 496 - Wild West Mafia. Mod Abandoned

[SirWario]

Yeah definitely agree with ryan. I think pdcakes, right now, doesnt understand that day 1 usually needs more discussion before we decide on a lynch candidate. I think his impatience is more newbish rather than scummy.

[GodOfWine]

There's no reason a newb can't be scum, and be a little confused about how to act. Now I'm hardly saying that I really think pdcakes is scum, but I do think that someone who makes a post like he did deserves at least one vote.

[Twomz]

Bad play does not condemn or confirm a player.

[ryan]

Well pdcakes, lynching Adam, as I was trying to say in my last post, would NOT actually prove if the notes are true or not. To "prove" if the notes are true, we will probably need at least two instances of truth. The only way we can get two instances without committing mass town murder, is to make it to Day 2 and try and (assuming there is a second relevant note) try and lynch someone who is referenced or targeted by both notes.

Just for a reminder, we are sure that it is not the mod who wrote the note and that it is definitely a player? I would personally bet on a power role player writing it, but it also may very well be the mod's way of increasing Day 1 activity.

Actually if we lynch Adam and he comes up scum, than it would prove the note was true. It doesn't mean they are 100% correct (if other notes appear after night sessions) all the time but for that one instance.

[curiouskarmadog]

also keep in mind whoever wrote the letter (for scummy or noble reasons) will probably support doing what the letter indicates Day 1. Keep that in mind, when pointing fingers at whoever thinks we should lynch Adam(ie follow the letter)...personally I think we should keep the letter in mind and see what happens Day 2 (new letter? same letter?)

I am not for a no lynch, I do think anyone here has actually suggested we no lynch, I think it was presented as an option. Lynches are the only way (mostly) that the town can fight back and kill scum. Not to mention, lynching provides tons of information.

[pdcakes]

guys i didnt say that adam needs to be lynched right now. i was just throwing it out there. i apologize. i just was throwing it out there for some more discussion.

and you guys are right i am slightly new to mafia....and im normally an impatient person.

so i apologize for coming off hasty.

[pdcakes]

and god of wine:
everyone was talking about voting a random player. and i decided if we were gonna pick one we should pick adam. look it made be a power role trying to get us to lynch him but if he turns out town then we ignore the votes from now on. but if he turns out to be scum then it brings about a lot more conversation.

I was just saying that if we are gonna vote a random player i think it should be adam. at least it will get us farther then randomly killing a townie.

[Thin_Man]

We have several possible avenue's to explore before this day is over... we can :shift:

-Lynch Adam - This is probably a bad move as it would sever any possible ties he'd have with other players and we really have no reason to trust the note yet.

-Lynch Adam's defenders/attackers - Again, since there was most like only one person who wrote the note, it's going to be 10 intuitive opinions on the matter, lynching on those grounds is probably not a good idea. (It could be more than one person if a group wrote the note, but then we're digging into WIFOM area's which is bad for Day 1)

-Lurker lynch - Always an acceptable option imho, since we only have one player who hasn't posted, it would be wise to wait a while before we bandwagoned. And post number isn't really the primary lurker tell, lack of information/person insight in posts is (parroting what other players are saying without contributing) so we need to wait a bit before we start declaring people lurkers anyway. Up side of lurker lynch is that even if they are town, they're not contributing, so they'll be useless in the endgame anyway.

-No Lynch - Allows us to skip awkward Day 1 randomness and stops the statistically higher mislynch problem (more town than scum, so probability of hitting town is higher in a random vote). Also we gather more info from night abilities and information is gathered from a night kill. Not to mention hopefully a second note. Downside to no lynch is that it gives the mafia a free kill, but imo, without any hard evidence or good tells to draw on, it's more like making them choose the kill instead of getting their kill + scummiest looking town lynch.

-Random lynch - Decent way to see where loyalties hide... has a low probability of actually hitting scum though.

-Everyone picks a top three scummiest players - Probably won't work on Day 1... may be worth a try, if only to point out lurkers and for possible hindsight in the endgame.

Aside from the fact it's far too early to be setting up a final day model, several of your models are way off. 1, 2, are ok. With 3 is bearable, though I dislike any idea that we should lynch people if we don't think they're scum, regardless of how useless they are. No lynch is only acceptable in certain situations, and day 1 after night start is barely ever one of them. 4 is absolutely sickening, and is no-way a good play ever. 5 is what we should be shooting for. This whole 'day 1 lynches are random anyway' thing is stupid anyway, considering it really isn't that unlikely that we will hit scum today, and even if we don't hit scum, some honest scumhunting today is the best way to actually get info in order to aim nightroles and to make it so we have a good chance of hitting scum tomorrow.

hat's the same argument people always make against a no lynch... but if we lynch a town player then we'll be at about the same point information wise, except we'll be two town down. Even if we do hit mafia there isn't much chance that on Day 1 they would have strong ties to other mafiasos... so it might actually help the other mafiaso(s) hide better. And you have to think, if we don't gain any information, neither will the scum (and by association, their chances of hitting a power role on purpose goes down as well).

May be in terms of information roles, but certainly not general information. If you're just talking about nightrole information, then you're likely relying on a couple of roles breaking the game, which isn't something I'm comfortable with relying on.

How I have always seen it is this: by lynching, we have a chance to hit scum. The probability is about 1/4, if we do it completely randomly, but the thing is that we don't do it randomly. We do it based off of what we see, who we think has things they're hiding, faulty reasoning, etc. Basically, we lynch those who, through their posts, seem more likely to be mafia. Going back to what I underlined, if we do not lynch, the mafia cannot die (with the exception of vigilantes, us getting lucky w/ a SK, things of that ilk). We must lynch because there is no other way to win. Day one is as good of a time to start as any. If we wait until D3, the mafia will have killed two people, which makes it like a D2 if we lynch D1. Smile We basically have more leeway, more "oops" room if we lynch earlier rather than later.

Yep. Also, us lynching gets rid'o scummy people. If we leave it to the scum, all the pro-town seeming people will get killed off, then we'll be stuck on day three with a bunch of scummy people and be forced to decide then.

In smaller games No Lynches have been used merely to make the number of players odd instead of even so that lynches are harder for the mafia to control in the endgame. though

Best way to do this is with a vig. If it becomes clear there is no vig, we can always do it later. Also, if an SK exists, it becomes very counterproductive, and we just don't know until we actually do it.

also keep in mind whoever wrote the letter (for scummy or noble reasons) will probably support doing what the letter indicates Day 1. Keep that in mind, when pointing fingers at whoever thinks we should lynch Adam(ie follow the letter)...personally I think we should keep the letter in mind and see what happens Day 2 (new letter? same letter?)

I don't really think we should be trying to find this person. I have my own views about what he'd do though.

vote sirwario

[Adele]

the reactions that people give us when attacked are the only thing to go by.

What? How about their behaviour when attacking, voting for and defending others? What about their theorising on the game at large, and suggesting/supporting bad plans? What about, ooh, say

roleclaims

? Your statement above is flat wrong.

Also, the chance of hitting scum on day 1 with a random vote is 1/4 for Three mafiasos... if there's just 2 then it's 1/6.

Um. Engage the ol' brain there Twomz. Minis usually have either 3 mafia and an SK or 2 groups of 2 mafia. I don't think I've ever been in a game with 3 Bad Guys (I may have, but I don't recall it), but only 2 bad guys ain't happenin'. So it's actually more like a 1-in-3 chance of hitting a bad guy.

Boy, is your face red.

[Paradoxombie]

I think it goes without saying, but

FOS: twomz

for having a pro-No-Lynch stance.

[kabenon007]

the reactions that people give us when attacked are the only thing to go by.

What? How about their behaviour when attacking, voting for and defending others? What about their theorising on the game at large, and suggesting/supporting bad plans? What about, ooh, say roleclaims? Your statement above is flat wrong.

Yes, looking back, I should have clarified a bit more. I was more thinking along the lines of best, and not only. My mistake.

[Thin_Man]

Um. Engage the ol' brain there Twomz. Minis usually have either 3 mafia and an SK or 2 groups of 2 mafia. I don't think I've ever been in a game with 3 Bad Guys (I may have, but I don't recall it), but only 2 bad guys ain't happenin'. So it's actually more like a 1-in-3 chance of hitting a bad guy.

Boy, is your face red.

It's common enough to be regarded as a good possibility.

[Adele]

Um. Engage the ol' brain there Twomz. Minis usually have either 3 mafia and an SK or 2 groups of 2 mafia. I don't think I've ever been in a game with 3 Bad Guys (I may have, but I don't recall it), but only 2 bad guys ain't happenin'. So it's actually more like a 1-in-3 chance of hitting a bad guy.

Boy, is your face red.

It's common enough to be regarded as a good possibility.

?

[Thin_Man]

You were implying that it's uncommon to have a 3-man mafia as sole scum.

[Twomz]

Sry, Adele, it's been almost a year since i've played mafia... I was thinking 2 out of 10 mafia as a lowest possible number (as in a mountainous game) and 3 as the highest.... Personally I wouldn't put more than 3 mafia in a mini... although I'd probably include a neutral or cult to go with it. If there was a 4 person mafia, then we'd have a 1/3 chance of hitting them day one... but 2 mislynchs are all that it would take for the town to lose.

[Adele]

You were implying that it's uncommon to have a 3-man mafia as sole scum.

Yes. It is.

[Thin_Man]

Just looking at the last 10 mini themes, 5 had three scum and 3 of those had three mafia as the sole scum. I'd hardly call that unlikely. I can try and take a larger sample if you want, but I'm fairly sure I'd be right even over the larger numbers too.

[Adele]

eh. Maybe I'm behind the times, then. In anycase, the 1-in-6 is implausible.

[Adam The Amazing]

In the games I've played, it's usually that about 25% of the people playing are scum. Not always, because 3 mafia and a SK decreases the power of the one anti-town faction, but when I mod games that's usually the balance I try to put in.

[Twomz]

Ok, rundown of first 2/3 pages...

1) Note? - Says Adam is scummy... no precedence, nor support to claim... yet. Time will tell, discuss will occur, TRUTH... will be found.

2) Possible hint in Setup? - Who is this lone figure? This will probably be unanswered until after the game... but may need to be taken into consideration.

3) No Lynch? - Valid option? Maybe. Good conversation starter? Perhaps. Gonna happen? Opinions say... no.

4) Number of scum? - Pointless to theorize this early... suffice to say that it's somewhere between 2-4, or 2-3 with a neutral role.

5) Where do we go from here? - A great song by the band "Pillar?" Or a pressing issue on an internet forum mafia game? DUM DUM DUM!!!!

6) Does Twomz LURVE lists? - Statistics say... not as much as he loves statistics. At least in the morning.

[theopor_COD]

A votecount for you all:

Thin_Man 2 (AdamtheAmazing, Twomz)
pdcakes 2 (God of Wine, Paradoxombie)
Ryan 1 (Adele)
Kabenon007 1 (Aimee)
Sir Wario 1 (Thin_Man)
Twomz 1 (Ryan)
Curiouskarmadog 1 (Sir Wario)
Paradoxombie 1 (pdcakes)

Not voting - Curiouskarmadog, Kabenon007

7 to push someone over the canyon

[Aimee]

Tin Man, could you clarfiy the purpose of your SirWario vote?

Something is making me uneasy about Paradoxombie's FoS on Twomz. It seems like he is jumping on the bandwagon without saying much himself.

[Thin_Man]

I could in theory, yes. I don't intend to, though

[Twomz]

I know the person you're talking about being bandwagoned is me Aimee... but I must say that I don't consider 1 vote and 1 FoS a "bandwagon"... especially this earlier in the game.

I'm unsure if doing a full review at this point in the game would be worthwhile (going over any nonrandom post made by ever player separately)... but i'm considering doing it later on today... stay tuned for more.

[GodOfWine]

I was just saying that if we are gonna vote a random player i think it should be adam. at least it will get us farther then randomly killing a townie

At this point, voting for Adam is not random. Because the note was your impetus to vote for him, it nullifies the possibility that a vote for Adam could actually be random now.

There is also a possibility that a mafioso wrote the note, and is accusing town. Doesn't that have an equal possibility? It's simple, but hey, Occam's Razor.