Micro 528: Double Day Unlimited -- Game Over

[Lucky2u]

Well honestly my vote for Davsto while I was semi rage Voting everyone on my wagon except OGML because at the time I was strong town reading him. Firebringer Yolo hammered right after me. I didn't exactly pay attention enough to know Davsto was put at l-1 by my vote, hence no L-1 warning from me. If I had to base my vote today on that day phase, I'd vote Vedith. He maybe thought Davsto Voting was safe at the time because my wagon seemed like a sure thing. Pablito is still semi guilty of this too since 3rd vote isn't much better than 2nd but Pablito makes a better sounding case for his vote.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 3.01

No votes cast

Not Voting: Lucky2u, pablito, Vedith

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2015-10-24 10:50:49)

[pablito]

I was making a post about dav's iso while watching survivor on tv last night but then feel asleep in middle and lost the post. Most of what I got through was fluff and hadn't gotten yet to davsto votes on vedith.

Because dav voted strongly with intention on both lucky and vedith it makes me feel that the intent was to scum bus scum d1p2 will look into that more later to see who had more motivation to do so.

@vedith a lot of it was the goodwill lucky built up with me in early d1p1 and looking so genuine in posts and continues to do so. It is in contrast with my one game with lucky before where it was mostly trolling posts. Also I wasn't buying that wagon. I think I said more back in d1p2 but can elaborate more if needed. Will have to look layer.

As for votes on dav it was mostly just a general gut feeling. Not sure anything specific. Sala reminded me no reason to not look there and close to deadline it felt a better lynch than lucky. Dav felt more like lurker scum which I tend to readbetter.

[Lucky2u]

In fairness I think you are talking about megapopcorn mafia and that can not be used as a basis for my scum game. I even admit in the mafia PT that I got caught up in the troll persona and it would have looked suspect for me to come out of it. I'm usually pretty manipulative in my scum game. However I feel that I probably shouldn't waste time convincing you I'm not town.

Vedith, would you hate me forever if I said I'm thinking about voting you?

[Lucky2u]

Here is my thought process for that right now. We went into this night phase with 3 members of a town bloc and Pablito. If it's pablito he has to kill a member of that 3 and leave the other 2 alive to convince to switch. So let's look at those 3. Vedith, Firebringer and Lucky. Vedith and Firebringer have been very open and confident in the town block and are least likely to flip thought processes and convince. Lucky has expressed doubt in the town block and would be the most enticing to leave alive as the person to sell the mislynch too. So that leaves pablito lucky and either fire or Vedith alive. With the choice for pablito to kill Vedith or Firebringer he kills Firebringer... Why? If he is going to sell me on a mislynch, I already said I was doubting Firebringer most of all. Shouldn't he have killed Vedith? Why isn't he voting Vedith and trying to sell me by now? His behavior doesn't seem like the desperate scum he should be by now.

ON THE OTHER HAND, if the scum was Vedith last night he has to look at either killing me or Firebringer and convincing the survivor to continue with the town block and hammer pablito. Firebringer is the clear person you want alive for this since he was %100 behind the town block so I should be dead if it was Vedith. Except that Firebringer has proven time and again he is unpredictable so maybe Vedith thinks I was the easier pushover. As with my pablito theory the issue is that he isn't selling to me to lynch pablito, so what the fuck is going on?

In conclusion neither of you are acting like scum should and we are all secretly town and the mod is trolling us.

[pablito]

My car was broken into today so I'm in no mindset to review old posts. Terribly busy this week and I apologize for not having the brain power to do all what I want.

In fairness I think you are talking about megapopcorn mafia and that can not be used as a basis for my scum game. I even admit in the mafia PT that I got caught up in the troll persona and it would have looked suspect for me to come out of it. I'm usually pretty manipulative in my scum game. However I feel that I probably shouldn't waste time convincing you I'm not town.

You were horrible in mega popcorn as player, scum, or fake-town, but it's my only experience with you so I have to compare with that. Don't think it's enough to read though.

Here is my thought process for that right now. We went into this night phase with 3 members of a town bloc and Pablito. If it's pablito he has to kill a member of that 3 and leave the other 2 alive to convince to switch. So let's look at those 3. Vedith, Firebringer and Lucky. Vedith and Firebringer have been very open and confident in the town block and are least likely to flip thought processes and convince. Lucky has expressed doubt in the town block and would be the most enticing to leave alive as the person to sell the mislynch too. So that leaves pablito lucky and either fire or Vedith alive.

With the choice for pablito to kill Vedith or Firebringer he kills Firebringer... Why? If he is going to sell me on a mislynch, I already said I was doubting Firebringer most of all. Shouldn't he have killed Vedith?

Why isn't he voting Vedith and trying to sell me by now? His behavior doesn't seem like the desperate scum he should be by now.

ON THE OTHER HAND, if the scum was Vedith last night he has to look at either killing me or Firebringer and convincing the survivor to continue with the town block and hammer pablito. Firebringer is the clear person you want alive for this since he was %100 behind the town block so I should be dead if it was Vedith. Except that Firebringer has proven time and again he is unpredictable so maybe Vedith thinks I was the easier pushover. As with my pablito theory the issue is that he isn't selling to me to lynch pablito, so what the fuck is going on?

In conclusion neither of you are acting like scum should and we are all secretly town

and the mod is trolling us.

I do think the mod is still trolling us. The win was when we lynched Not_Mafia right? He said game over already.

With the quotes I underlined a very interesting thought pattern. It appears you have done a lot of thinking on the NKA. Too much, to be honest.

[Vedith]

Vedith, would you hate me forever if I said I'm thinking about voting you?

I wouldn't hate you.
But it would be stupid to do so.

I really hate being in this kind of situation. I hope that I'm not voted up as getting Dav on D1P2 looked promising for town.
Last 2 times I was in the situation to make a choice I got it completely wrong, so there's that.

I look over you both and have no idea. Why would Pab do the speech yesterday of lynching him today if it's still going, I can't see scum doing this, but that could be the idea to go with for him.
And Lucky could have only voted Dav if both were scum to gain town credit. But why didn't they just try and push on someone else at that stage?

I've looked over the VC's too, I'm just not seeing anything.
Which then leads me to who is the better scum player?

Can you guys link the last 2 scum games you have completed?

[pablito]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=62046
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=61262

The first one was OGML and me as the scum team. This is why we were always at each other's throats, because we know each other's scum game pretty well.

The second one was me laying back and letting town target town mostly.

I believe in both games, you'll see me commenting on the slot I replaced into. Third person is my thing I guess.

Vedith - care to share yours as well?

[pablito]

Pre-Davsto ISO. What I remember most is Davsto brought Vedith toward L-1 when there was no benefit to doing so. Davsto brought Lucky toward L-1 to get a lynch near end of the day. Most interaction seemed vitriolic between Davsto-Vedith. Davsto-Lucky didn't seem very unintentional. I'm focusing more on the actions taken a while ago as that will give me more information. What's being said today is all stuff that can easily be taken back, what was done and said before cannot.

Davsto ISO:

D1P1

(D/V + D/L) In #93 (ISO 3) there's a pile-on of lane by quoting Lucky. I'm wondering if there's any motivation for quoting Lucky in that post because it was a common argument at that moment. There's also a comment on Vedith/Luna. This could be Davsto trying to make Vedith look town?

(D/V + D/L) #169 (ISO 10) comment on all reads as requested by OGML. Town read Lucky, null PoE read on Vedith. Ends up voting lane, FB, and Vedith. The important piece is that Davsto intentionally defers from reading Vedith. This continues with the previous post 98 in which Davsto is unsure if the Vedith/Luna argument back and forth was TvT, TvS or SvS. This is later built upon when Davsto makes a large post on Vedith (in which I assume that Dav feels that it was TvS argument...). The early interactions make Vedith scummy in retrospect. I'll have to look at Vedith's posts too during this time to read this better.

D1P2

(D/V) #328 (ISO 16) At this point, Davsto is going for the kill to put at L-1 and fully builds the case up to get Vedith lynched. The context at this time is that it's very early D1P2 (Lucky had already voted Vedith at that time too). In this post Davsto also comments on Vedith without directing anything toward him. That's like my style...Nonetheless, this seems to be Davsto's style - so I don't think that we can read anything into the detached commentary style.

(D/V) #407 (ISO 22) IMO, this is the strongest evidence I have of the lack of the D/V pairing. I don't think that Dav would necessarily ask someone why the unvote if they're a scum-pair.

(D/L) #507 (ISO 33) This seems to come out of nowhere and is a huge push toward Lucky getting to lynch. OGML was a top vote getter at that moment. This is the strongest evidence against the D/L pairing. The context however is that at that exact moment of the post, Lucky did not seem to be in danger. However, with this game, it is easy to go from 0 to lynched. Lucky did get there, and that was mostly due to Davsto's post. I could see Davsto thinking that it was an appropriate moment to "bus" Lucky if the OGML lynch kept its steam up.




While also making this post, I notice that Vedith went from saying that FB is scum for sure then without any further justification calling FB as town after the outburst. I could not see scum making this assessment. FB was scum bait during the outburst - furthermore Vedith was a high vote target at that time. In fact, Vedith was not moving anyone toward anything during that time. Either was giving up...or just nuanced town thinking.

While the Lucky/Davsto links in D1P1 look townish...there's way too much damning evidence against the Vedith/Davsto pairing later on. Vedith had so many opportunities to go for mislynches and to push things in a scummy way, but did not. Lucky in isolation just seems so town though. The context in everything just makes me feel better about Vedith.

So @Vedith - why did you suspect FB before his outburst. You called him for sure scum.

@Lucky -

i hath been prodded! sorry NS, you won't have to do that again I hope.

@Firebringer/Thor: I could agree with that. N_M focus on me seems more town than scum. If he was scum, I'd have expected him to have backed off that train of thought by now. What with it being popular opinion that I am town.

As much as I like the security of the town bloc between myself vedith and fire, it's not unheard of that scum plans wild moves to sneak into a town bloc. If fire is scum and hammered his partner for example, something I fully think fire capable of as scum, he pretty much already won because I'm not voting that guy. Before I get into that deep of paranoia there.... let's see how pab/NM plays out.

Please share more about your doubts on the town bloc at that time.

[Lucky2u]

Almost forgot about this, let me find my past two scum games and respond. (I don't organize my game history so it might take a second.)

[Nobody Special]

Lucky2u is subject to his third prod. According to the rules, I can replace him without warning. Given that we are in the final portion of the game, I am going to prod him anyway, and give him 24 hours. I will reassess at that time.

Also prodding Vedith.

[Nobody Special]

I hate being ninja'd.

[Lucky2u]

heh sorry NS

[Lucky2u]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=61738

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=61639

pretty sure these are my last two mafia games. I was on a break for awhile too so I didn't have too much from recently...

[Vedith]

Prod received - Sorry this was going to be caught up with yesterday but the site went down.
I'll be on it tonight.

[Vedith]

Okay, so Lucky has 2 different scum games with 2 completely scum plays, that's not helpful. I'll check Pabs.

[Vedith]

The first one was OGML and me as the scum team. This is why we were always at each other's throats, because we know each other's scum game pretty well.

Talk to me about this comment... Always at each others throats when someone is scum or just in general?
Surely if you know each others scum games pretty well then it's an indication to also know when not scum?

[Vedith]

So @Vedith - why did you suspect FB before his outburst. You called him for sure scum.

I've probably been in more games with FB on this site than I have with any other player. I've not seen him react like that any where close before and he is actually a genuine player regardless of align. He was pissed off there and it was obvious that it was because he's town not being listened to rather than because he was getting voted.
That's why a lot of people that have played with him find him as scum easily.

[Vedith]

So 2 things strike me with a brief read of these games from Pab - Both scum games he hasn't been overly active (about the same here) and he has his long lengthy posts with a lot of information in.
I looked into a couple of the town games... It's about the same as the scum games. The attitude and play stance seem to be the same too.

I really don't know.

Without in depth meta, previous games aren't of help, I just don't know where to go with this. Each time I've had a 50/50 chance I've fucked up and voted wrong.

[Lucky2u]

@Lucky -
In post 584, Lucky2u wrote:
i hath been prodded! sorry NS, you won't have to do that again I hope.

@Firebringer/Thor: I could agree with that. N_M focus on me seems more town than scum. If he was scum, I'd have expected him to have backed off that train of thought by now. What with it being popular opinion that I am town.

As much as I like the security of the town bloc between myself vedith and fire, it's not unheard of that scum plans wild moves to sneak into a town bloc. If fire is scum and hammered his partner for example, something I fully think fire capable of as scum, he pretty much already won because I'm not voting that guy. Before I get into that deep of paranoia there.... let's see how pab/NM plays out.


Please share more about your doubts on the town bloc at that time.

I am a fairly paranoid player by default but a town block that included a... wild card (to put it nicely, love you firebringer!)... worried me. I see now that I shouldn't have been worrying about him. I am still worried that vedith scum snuck into the town block but well...

I've come to the decision that I would rather lose to vedith scum sneaking into the town block than pablito scum for making me betray vedith. Since I can't fathom a reason to vote either of the other, that's going to have to be why I:

VOTE: pablito

Vedith, I put the game in your hands.

[Vedith]

VOTE: pablito

[Firebringer]

I am posting here.
GG everyone

[pablito]

We had three more days lucky and you never asked me about why I was not veering toward vedith...

That only made me suspect you more.

Oh well, I was horrible on pretty every single read. I deserve the loss. Just wish the rest of the town didn't have to lose too.

[Vedith]

Sorry, I felt bad with how that hammer went...
I honestly expected both of you to realise, even more so when you started to ask question deeper.

Thanks for the game all, it was an enjoyable one at most times.

Sorry Dav for not voting Lucky over you, I was planning to.

[Davsto]

If you'd voted Lucky over me, I probably would have been lynched the next phase and you afterwards because associatives; don't fret!