Open 37 - Crush Nightless (Game Over) before 477

[distad]

I'm concerned about this whole "set a trap" thing, Pick-Em... I know your posts tend to be a bit emotionally charged (for lack of better term), but I'm not sure where to go with this.

As for roles...

I'm not sure if I'm the target or not. When I went to -1 really quickly, PE unvoted. Now, it suggests that if he's the lyncher, I am not his target. Now, BM already had his vote on me, also... Knowing that one of you is the lyncher makes this tough. One of three situations arises: PE threw out a very town gambit there, hoping that it would come down to a situation like this; BM is PE's target and didn't want to falsely eliminate on D1; BM is the lyncher and I'm his target.

PE's move on page 1 alone makes me think he is town. However, I certainly can't vote BM yet because if BM is PE's target, it's easily game over.

For the record, I love this end-game scenario. Not only do we have to choose properly, even the lyncher has to get it right. Very different than if he's scum. Awesome!

[Battle Mage]

i dont understand what Pickem means about setting a trap. However i do have an idea. If we lynch the lyncher today, we win right? Well if we lynch the townie who ISN'T the lynchers target, we still win, i think. Because the lyncher won't be able to get a majority and lynch his target, thus he fails, and the town succeeds.
So basically, all we need to do, is make sure we don't kill the lynchers target. According to Distad, that makes PE the best play, as you claim that he is definitely not the target?
Of course i'm not too sure about that specifically, but i'm confident that we have some room to manouvre here.

BM

[pickemgenius]

i dont understand what Pickem means about setting a trap. However i do have an idea. If we lynch the lyncher today, we win right?

Who the hell do you think I was going to set a trap for?

That's the damn plan.

[distad]

i dont understand what Pickem means about setting a trap. However i do have an idea. If we lynch the lyncher today, we win right? Well if we lynch the townie who ISN'T the lynchers target, we still win, i think. Because the lyncher won't be able to get a majority and lynch his target, thus he fails, and the town succeeds.
So basically, all we need to do, is make sure we don't kill the lynchers target. According to Distad, that makes PE the best play, as you claim that he is definitely not the target?
Of course i'm not too sure about that specifically, but i'm confident that we have some room to manouvre here.

BM

This is certainly interesting.

Hmm...

It's too early for me to vote, certainly... but that just set off soooo many alarms that you're the lyncher and PE is the target.

I need to go back and look at a few things again.

There really isn't much wiggle room at all...

[Battle Mage]

lol do i detect backtracking? a minute ago you claimed this to be the one impossibility.

FoS: Distad

i dont understand what Pickem means about setting a trap. However i do have an idea. If we lynch the lyncher today, we win right? Well if we lynch the townie who ISN'T the lynchers target, we still win, i think. Because the lyncher won't be able to get a majority and lynch his target, thus he fails, and the town succeeds.
So basically, all we need to do, is make sure we don't kill the lynchers target. According to Distad, that makes PE the best play, as you claim that he is definitely not the target?
Of course i'm not too sure about that specifically, but i'm confident that we have some room to manouvre here.

BM

This is certainly interesting.

Hmm...

It's too early for me to vote, certainly... but that just set off soooo many alarms that you're the lyncher and PE is the target.

I need to go back and look at a few things again.

There really isn't much wiggle room at all...

[distad]

Did I? I think I just missed that in my list of possible outcomes.

Sincerely, though, please point out where I claimed it was impossible. I was thinking back trying to figure out why I didn't include it in my list of possible outcomes (in 150), and I couldn't find it. I think I dropped that ball.

I'd like to think my logic is infallible, but that has been proved wrong SO many times...

So, I have to figure out where that happened. Because the above-mentioned alarm went off on that 4th option that I didn't list.

[distad]

I still need to get on a vote-chart.

I'm sorry for the delay guys.

Also, BM - could you have a look at my previous post and help me find what I appear to be missing?

Thanks.

[Battle Mage]

i think the answer to your question lies in post 150, where you claimed there were only 3 scenarios that you would consider.

[distad]

yeah. And I recall having a reason to saying that there were only 3, but for the life of me, I can't figure out why I didn't include the 4th reason.

Assuming that I cannot eventually remember, I have to presume that the 4th reason is legitimate; in that case, your analysis set off that alarm.

Also, I don't believe that the town wins if we kill the non-target townie. The lyncher doesn't meet his objective, but the town doesn't either...

[Battle Mage]

yeah. And I recall having a reason to saying that there were only 3, but for the life of me, I can't figure out why I didn't include the 4th reason.

Assuming that I cannot eventually remember, I have to presume that the 4th reason is legitimate; in that case, your analysis set off that alarm.

Also, I don't believe that the town wins if we kill the non-target townie. The lyncher doesn't meet his objective, but the town doesn't either...

actually thats a good point. That means that if we kill the non-target townie, everyone loses.

[distad]

I just finished a re-read, and I don't like it.

The dynamics of this game are very different. I look through trying to find a pairing between a couple of people, forgetting that the lyncher doesn't have a partner.

There are a couple of points where I think that I might be BM's target. He threw a few FoS's at me through the game. He also was part of the near quicklynch of me on P1. Now, he couldn't know that Piggy would be a dumbass and put me at -1, but he could have pulled his vote like PE after Piggy did vote. Still, it's all weak. I don't have much else going.

[JDodge]

Prodding Battle Mage and pickemgenius.

[pickemgenius]

I could see BM as the lyncher.

very much so, seeing as how i've been thinking you've been town this whole game.

If you were to be the lyncher, mad props to the luck ont he almost quicklynch.

not ready *yet* to place my vote, but almost.

[Battle Mage]

we need to get this right. I'd like to see the long awaited vote table from Distad. Then i shall reread my notes, and comment further.

[distad]

I've compiled the votes and I'll put together the table over the next hour.

I have to find the downtime here at work.

[distad]

[mrow]Vote History[col]Day 1[col]Day 2Distad[col]BM mneme piggy unvote Piggy*[col]Q-man mneme* PickEm[col]Piggy Distad Unvote Piggy[col]mneme Battle Mage[col]mneme Distad PickEm mneme Unvote Piggy![col]PickEm mneme mneme![col]PickEm Piggy*[col]Qman* Unvote Qman Xyzzy[col][col] Piggy[col]BM PickEm Distad* mneme[col]
*- L-1 vote
! - Hammer

[distad]

And yes, that is correct... Qman/xyzzy never voted the whole game...

[distad]

I'm ready to vote. I'll give both of you guys an opportunity before I do so.

[distad]

I thought I had fixed it before posting it, but BM's vote on mneme was the hammer vote (!).

[distad]

Okay... I fixed it!

[mrow]Vote History[col]Day 1[col]Day 2Distad[col]BM mneme piggy unvote Piggy*[col]Q-man mneme* PickEm[col]Piggy Distad Unvote Piggy[col]mneme Battle Mage[col]mneme Distad PickEm mneme Unvote Piggy![col]PickEm mneme! mneme[col]PickEm Piggy*[col]Qman* Unvote Qman Xyzzy[col][col] Piggy[col]BM PickEm Distad* mneme[col]
*- L-1 vote
! - Hammer

[Battle Mage]

well, i'm rerereading again now. Going in with the assumption that i am the target, i have to say that Distads early play is alarming. Not only does he make an effort to validate his random vote on me (which nobody else did) he also tried to cast suspicion on me with a particularly odd post on Page 2.
So far, Pickem has yet to cast a vote for me, and is either playing an incredibly slow game, or probably isnt the lyncher. His play actually looks scummy, as he clearly has an intent to survive, but as we are dealing with a Lyncher here, and not a mafioso, i think i can see him as more protown-looking than Distad.

I need to read the remainder of the game, but i'm currently leaning towards a vote for Distad.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Having said that, post 162 doesn't show Pickem in a good light...
hmm, i'm not entirely sure which of you is the lyncher atm.

[distad]

If you want to look at those two isolated instances totally out of context, yeah, it looks bad. But, considering the flow of the game also, they are both completely reasonable, IMHO.

I'll even be open about where I plan to vote. I'm looking at you, BM. I highly doubt that PE is the lyncher, now.
1) He unvoted quickly when I got to -1. This is either an incredibly cool move on his part or VERY town.
2) He has never voted you. Not once. Again, this would have to be an INCREDIBLY cool move on his part.

I understand your concern that I could be the lyncher, but it's not supported. My vote on you was in the random stage and I threw out a comment (note: NOT a vote) on your questioning the role, both very reasonable.

On the other hand, YOU voted for PE on D2. The only other votes from all 5 of us alive were on scum.

I said that I would wait for both of you to respond, but short of an admission, I can't figure what PE would say that would change my mind on this. Further, I think your 171 is just OMGUS.

Vote: BM

[Battle Mage]

surprise surprise lol. I figured as soon as i suggested suspicion of you, you'd OMGUS me. However, in your favour, you do bring up some pretty valid points in favour of Pickem. If Pickem is the lyncher, he can already win, so there is no reason not to

Vote: Distad

.
Assuming Pickem is town, i can only hope that he makes the right decision.
BM

If you want to look at those two isolated instances totally out of context, yeah, it looks bad. But, considering the flow of the game also, they are both completely reasonable, IMHO.

I'll even be open about where I plan to vote. I'm looking at you, BM. I highly doubt that PE is the lyncher, now.
1) He unvoted quickly when I got to -1. This is either an incredibly cool move on his part or VERY town.
2) He has never voted you. Not once. Again, this would have to be an INCREDIBLY cool move on his part.

I understand your concern that I could be the lyncher, but it's not supported. My vote on you was in the random stage and I threw out a comment (note: NOT a vote) on your questioning the role, both very reasonable.

On the other hand, YOU voted for PE on D2. The only other votes from all 5 of us alive were on scum.

I said that I would wait for both of you to respond, but short of an admission, I can't figure what PE would say that would change my mind on this. Further, I think your 171 is just OMGUS.

Vote: BM

[distad]

BM - it's not like if there's a scum. There's a lyncher. And if he's the lyncher, now he will CERTAINLY be able to hit his target. So, if you're not convinced of PE, it's not a good reason to vote me (as opposed to if a scum was still alive) because he wouldn't win if I were his target.

This isn't an OMGUS. I've been talking about it for most of the day (look back).

I'm not worried, though. I'm convinced that PE is town. I know that I'm town. It has to be you.

(On the whole, though, you've played it really cool the whole game. This is strictly a process of elimination conclusion.)