Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!


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Post Post #1975 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:47 am

Post by Guardian »

Shteven wrote:
Guardian wrote:Shteven, you basically are saying the following:

"there is almost no way Guardian is team scum. however, I think he is lying about being the doctor.... but there was a doctor protection last night -- and Guardian was a likely target.

So... Guardian could be the SK!"

Why do you want to come up with a reason to vote me so badly? What are your reasons besides OMGUS? What, if any, case do you have on me for being an SK?
See my above post, which I wrote at the same time as you wrote yours, so it's not a reply, but rather, some more arguments against you in connection with Glork/TCS.

I do think you have a decent chance of being mafia. I would put you after Glork and TCS, however. The specific reason why you could be SK is exactly what you posted in your post, trying to say it wasn't a reason. It
IS
a reason. Let me break down the exact logic:
OK, watch me break down your broken down logic ;).
FACT: There was only one night kill. It's entirely possible that the mafia submitted a no-kill, but I am considering this extremely unlikely. Therefore:

Assumed: the doctor protected the person the mafia targetted. I'd say this is at least 90% probable.
Agreed.
Assumption: Guardian is the most likely target for doctor protection, being our only claimed power role. This can't be proven, but I'd say it's likely.
This assumes there is another doctor and is still not true -- MBL is the "most likely" doctor protection as I am a doctor and protected him.
Corollary: the chances of their being another doctor in the game to protect guardian INCREASES if guardian lied about his claim. He then wouldn't be using one of the possible doctor slots. However, it's possible there are two doctors. However, this is an increased chance of being Anti-Town.
Wait what? There are still just as many doctors before I claimed as after I claimed in the game if I'm not a doctor. Assuming I fake claimed, my fake claiming doesn't suddenly remove doctors. This doesn't make sense.
Conclusion: If guardian was mafia-targeted, then he is not mafia,
but is Anti-Town
, so he is the SK.
You ASSUME IN THE CONCLUSION THAT I AM ANTI-TOWN.

I asked what scummy tells you have on me that don't rely on interactions with the mafia -- and you haven't produced any. Your argument results in either a) I am the doc and protected OR b) I was targeted for NK and was protected.

Neither of those makes me an SK. I usually hate to ad-hom as town, as it doesn't convince people, but for the love of goodness you and ManaSpryte are idiots, and both of you are OMGUSing me. You are trying to push a case against me beyond all reason.


You still have a chance to be mafia, because the above logical argument involves assumptions that you were targeted by the mafia and protected by another doctor.
Aside from me hammering Sarcastro, this still doesn't make sense with the above assumptions. If I am mafia (unless I No Killed, which you disregarded in the above) then some other doctor protected someone else. But you say I am the most likely person to have been protected. So you are trying to have it both ways. You are basically trying to reason however you can into whatever convoluted scenario you can that would somehow, some way end up with me being scum.
P.S. This is exactly what I had posted previously, which you quoted and dismissed without ever understanding.
I dismissed it because it is bullshit.


BTW, you said earlier I've been on you all game -- not true at all. I have been pushing a case on you all of today, and that's about it. Before this I've voted you, but never pushed a case on you.



TCS, I'm going to be completely honest -- I am not sure whether you lying low or posting more is more likely to result in me voting for you.

For what its worth though, I trust Mana & Shteven's reads on this game about 0, so their votes on you aren't going to influence me one way or the other -- if they are voting you and you're scum, basically we get lucky.

Also, for what its worth, the town has never won a game I've been lynched in either :P. The town has in fact never won a game I've been in, as I always get mislynched at endgame -- a scenario that comrade Shteven is trying to nicely to set up....
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Post Post #1976 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:06 am

Post by Shteven »

Guardian wrote:
Shteven wrote: Assumption: Guardian is the most likely target for doctor protection, being our only claimed power role. This can't be proven, but I'd say it's likely.
This assumes there is another doctor and is still not true -- MBL is the "most likely" doctor protection as I am a doctor and protected him.
I do not have to assume that there are two doctors for guardian to have been doctor protected; that is only true if you make the assumption that Guardian is a doctor. This is not critical though, in either case, another doctor is possible. Believing that MBL was doc protected by Guardian is another assumption of you telling the truth. But that may very well be the case.
Guardian wrote:
Shteven wrote:Quote:
Corollary: the chances of their being another doctor in the game to protect guardian INCREASES if guardian lied about his claim. He then wouldn't be using one of the possible doctor slots. However, it's possible there are two doctors. However, this is an increased chance of being Anti-Town.
Wait what? There are still just as many doctors before I claimed as after I claimed in the game if I'm not a doctor. Assuming I fake claimed, my fake claiming doesn't suddenly remove doctors. This doesn't make sense.
You misunderstood; it decreases the chances of other players being the doctor if you are telling the truth and are in fact a doctor. If you lied, it has no effect, but since no effect is better than a negative effect, the higher chance of you being doctor-protected is if you are not a doctor yourself.

And yes, I do assume in the end that you are anti-town. The point of the case was to show you have a high chance of being the SK. A few of the assumptions suggest being anti-town, but only after you believe two separate assumptions. So I'll admit to that being weak.

Honestly, I'm going to stop talking about this, because I'm really -not- trying to push guardian's case. You were simply related to TCS/Glork, and in that post was about them; but I also wanted to be complete. I am not voting guardian, and I don't intend to today. Let's focus on the other two ;)

And my runner-up for SK is MBL, so guardian's claim of protecting him is quite unnerving.

If I'm only right about 2 of them then I'd say the remaining scum is a lurker. Jack, while not lurking, doesn't post enough content for my tastes, so this counts him.
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Post Post #1977 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:12 am

Post by ManaSpryte »

A 0?!?!?!?! No wai dude! :) Be more of a team player!!!! Or atleast act like you're pro-town :) On more of a serious note, I couldn't give a flying fuck on what players have done on other games. I'm sure everyone is saying this and that just to change gears. How about this... "Man, I saw ManaSpryte play a game on GL like 6 years ago, He was lurking and he was mafia!!! OMG!! He's doing that now... HE MUST BE MAFIA AGAIN!!! LOL
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Post Post #1978 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:06 pm

Post by Glork »

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:I always play to live, because when I'm town and I die the town
inevitably
loses. I'm so sorry that this is borne out in the statistics. No town has ever won a game in which I was lynched as town.
Classic example of Appeal to Emotion. Good job with that, champ.

Mod:
Replace Battle Mage, please. His contributions in the last
MONTH
amount to the following three posts:
Battle Mage wrote:i'm going to reread some of this game soon.
Battle Mage wrote:shit. have i missed a whole day-night cycle? :o
Battle Mage wrote:this game is next on my reread list. will get to it as soon as i have time. :)
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Post Post #1979 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:08 pm

Post by LoudmouthLee »

I have been trying to replace BM for 2 weeks now.
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"LML returns, plays one game, wins a Scummie, then leaves again!" - Primate
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Post Post #1980 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:20 pm

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Kinetic replaces BM, as of this post!
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"LML returns, plays one game, wins a Scummie, then leaves again!" - Primate
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Post Post #1981 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:23 pm

Post by Kinetic »

Hey guys, I've been sort of ghost following this game a bit since the first day, so I'm not in the dark here. I'm not completely up to date so if anyone wants to give me a synopsis on their opinions of BM that might help me catch up faster. I'll try and catch up by Friday, 80 pages seems daunting ;-)
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Post Post #1982 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:25 pm

Post by Kinetic »

Also, last time I replaced into a game Guardian was in I lead a lynch against him, so for old times sake.

Unvote
in case BM has a floating vote.
Vote:Guardian

Unvote


Ok, I promise that is my only joke post for this game :P.
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Post Post #1983 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:56 pm

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Mod's little games!


Pop Quiz Time!


If you have time, please answer the following questions VIA PM to me, please. They will be shown end-game.

1) Who are the remaining two scum?
2) Who is the SK?
3) How many Cops are in this game (1 or 2)? Who?
4) How many Docs are in this game? (0, 1 or 2)? Who, if any?
5) Do we have a vig? Who, if any?
6) Do we have a masonry? Who, if any?

This is open to anyone.. lurkers, dead players, Mods, etc :)
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Post Post #1984 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 7:28 pm

Post by Shteven »

I think it may be useful if everyone posted their answers to 1&2 (alive players only, of course!). No posting 3-6 ;)

1) TCS/Glork. If I'm wrong about one of them, then it's likely a lurker; ie, one of: Billytwilight, jack, manaspryte. Less likely: yos2, billy, yogurt.

2) Guardian or MBL. Sadly, I can't really choose which.
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Post Post #1985 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 7:55 pm

Post by Glork »

The mafiates are probably among {HackerHuck, BillyTwilight, Shteven}.... could be up to one of inHim/TCS/Yos, though I find that less likely to be the case.

SK is probably among {MBL, Yos, HH, BT, inHim}.

Number of power (Cops, Docs, Vig) should be obv by now. No comment on masonry at this time.
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Post Post #1986 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 7:59 pm

Post by Glork »

Unvote, vote: HackerHuck
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Post Post #1987 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:04 pm

Post by Glork »

Sorry for the triple-post.


I'd like
EVERYBODY
to answer Questions 1 and 2 in-thread. However, at this time, I would not like anybody to state reasons for their top suspicions. I plan on grilling people and opening this all up for discussion after everyone has weighed in.
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Post Post #1988 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:34 pm

Post by Kinetic »

Well I've done a lot of targeted re-reading and I think I'll answer Glork's 'request' now.

1. Glork/Mana
2. Guardian.

More later. ;-)
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Post Post #1989 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 1:07 am

Post by YogurtBandit »

1.TCS/inhim
2.Jack
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Post Post #1990 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:21 am

Post by ManaSpryte »

1.Guardian
2. Jack
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Post Post #1991 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:40 am

Post by ManaSpryte »

1. HH/Guardian
2. Jack
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But I, being poor, have only my dreams;
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Tread softly because you tread on my dreams

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Post Post #1992 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 3:59 am

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

1) Billy/HH
2) Glork
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Post Post #1993 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:03 am

Post by Guardian »

1) Who are the remaining two scum?
{Shteven, HH, inHim} contains at least one, {TCS, Kinetic, BT, Yos2} I have no great read on.
{MrBuddyLee (MBL), Jack} I doubt are scum.
{Yogurt Bandit, ManaSpryte} are not teamscum.

2) Who is the SK?
{Glork, YB, ManaSpryte}?

3) Who are not going to be at all helpful in finding said scum?
{Shteven, The Central Scrutinizer (TCS) [at least no convincing :|], Yogurt Bandit, ManaSpryte}

4)Who do we want contributions from?
{TCS, Kinetic, BT, Yos2}
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Post Post #1994 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:04 am

Post by Guardian »

unvote: Shteven vote: HackerHuck
.

I feel as good about him as Shteven, and more are willing...
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Post Post #1995 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:09 am

Post by BillyTwilight »

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been active. I just haven't had the energy to devote to a read of this thread since I got back from vacation; I might ask LML for a replacement, there is just too much information constantly going into this thread and the semester has started up here, so I haven't been able to force myself to devote the time I need to this game. I'll try to give a read through of everything that's happened since I was gone and post at some point this evening or tonight, but I can't guarantee anything. I don't know if LML will be able to find someone willing to replace into an 80+ page game, so I might just stick it out, but I won't be devoting daily time to this thread; I just have too much else going on and other games that are quicker without the enormous amount of information that this one has.
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Post Post #1996 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:55 am

Post by Shteven »

Shteven, post 1984 wrote:I think it may be useful if everyone posted their answers to 1&2 (alive players only, of course!). No posting 3-6
Glork, post 1987 wrote:I'd like EVERYBODY to answer Questions 1 and 2 in-thread.
Kenetic, post 1988 wrote:Well I've done a lot of targeted re-reading and I think I'll answer Glork's 'request' now.
Glork's request? Huh? ;P

Guardian wrote:3) Who are not going to be at all helpful in finding said scum?
{Shteven ....
I guess being the first to agree with AE and drive the Sarcastro wagon is considered being unhelpful? Excuse me, your scum is showing.
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Post Post #1997 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:59 am

Post by Kinetic »

Why does everyone misspell my name! Misspelling my name is a scum tell! :P
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Post Post #1998 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:14 am

Post by Shteven »

Sorry kenetic ;) I pronounce your name the same as the word, so when it's time to type it, I spell the name how the word is spelled!

Also, I realized I double-listed BT in the lurkers categories...first one, the more likely, should have been BM. Of course now that he's replaced this may change ;)
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Post Post #1999 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:17 am

Post by Shteven »

EBWOP: I swear I typed Kinetic. That first part up there should be stricken from the record. I must have no idea how to actually spell the word. *cough*
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