Mini 486: GAME OVER!

[vollkan]

That means Para is at L-2.

Voting for Para = CKD, Vollkan, Elias, Nelly

Not Voting for Para = Jordan, Hermit, Tornado, SPAG, Gorckat, Para, Pulse

Of those not voting Para, the only players whom are active are Hermit, Gorckat and Para. Since we can't reasonably rely on Para to vote himself, this probably means that Hermit and Gorckat will need to shift to Para before deadline.

Gorckat is less active than Hermit and, as such, I think it might be a good idea if Gorckat were to vote Para now so as to put Para at L-1. Then Hermit can place the final vote at some point. I don't want to be in the situation where we are waiting on someone to vote but the deadline passes.

I realise that Gorckat has expressed suspicion of CKD, but a lynch really is better than a No Lynch so it would be more helpful to vote Para than to remain voting on CKD.

I really can't believe I am asking someone (well, two people if you count Hermit) to change their vote, but this is an odd situation we are in.

[JordanA24]

OK, lets assume for a minute Paradox is scum and Pulse is town:

Oman posts a list of vigging choices, putting Paradox at the top and Pulse second, hoping that Paradox is vigged and that gives him some town cred. But then he is asked whether he would prefer that Pulse is vigged and Paradox is lynched. If he was looking to sacrifice one of his own to gain town cred, why would he say he approved that Paradox was lynched rather than vigged? If Paradox is lynched, the town might later end up saying "I bet Oman said he approved Paradox was lynched rather than vigged because he wanted to see whether it was neccessary to get rid of one of his own, since a vigging is instant, and a lynch isn't." So if Oman wanted to gain as much town cred as possible, he'd have stuck with vigging Paradox rather than Pulse, rather than risk Paradox not being lynched and not gaining any town cred, and even if Paradox would have been lynched, he wouldn't have gained as much town cred than if Paradox was vigged.

I hope that made sense.

[vollkan]

Oman posts a list of vigging choices, putting Paradox at the top and Pulse second, hoping that Paradox is vigged and that gives him some town cred. But then he is asked whether he would prefer that Pulse is vigged and Paradox is lynched. If he was looking to sacrifice one of his own to gain town cred, why would he say he approved that Paradox was lynched rather than vigged? If Paradox is lynched, the town might later end up saying "I bet Oman said he approved Paradox was lynched rather than vigged because he wanted to see whether it was neccessary to get rid of one of his own, since a vigging is instant, and a lynch isn't." So if Oman wanted to gain as much town cred as possible, he'd have stuck with vigging Paradox rather than Pulse, rather than risk Paradox not being lynched and not gaining any town cred, and even if Paradox would have been lynched, he wouldn't have gained as much town cred than if Paradox was vigged.

I disagree tremendously with this.

All of the following is under the assumption Para is scum unless stated otherwise

This ignores the crucial fact that I had openly threatened Oman, Para and Elias and assumes (wrongly) that Oman WANTED to kill a scumbuddy.

Oman knows (because of my threat) that there is a possibility of him or Para being lynched/vigged that day. Given that I had taken the step of claiming, I wasn't going to waste it by not killing, that would have been obvious. Naturally, Oman doesn't want Para or himself to die, but he can see that I have claimed and, hence, that I am going to shoot.

Oman's goal is to avoid his and Para's deaths at any rate, so he supports the plan because it at least guarantees that Para or Oman or "other buddy" is not vigged. My "plan" was the best option for Oman in that it offered
a) Immediate (presumably) pro-town death of Pulse
b) Possibility of avoiding a Para/Oman death
c) If things went bad and Para was lynched Oman would be distanced

Hence, it is not that Oman was "looking to sacrifice" another scum; it was just that Oman knew that there was a very high likelihood of him or Para dying and, thus, whilst he wanted to avoid the deaths as much as possible, the plan offered him an escape avenue through the prospect of distancing

At the end, you say that Oman would have preferred Para be vigged than lynched so he could guarantee town cred. No offence, but this is ridiculous. By this logic, every scum player should make it their goal to kill their scummates ASAP since that would guarantee them town cred. You are actually saying that Oman would prefer to have a scum buddy dead.

If Pulse had been vigged and a town had been lynched, that would be the ideal scenario for Oman.

In short, I REALLY disagree with your

defense of Para

By the way, Jordan, perhaps you could be the one to put on vote number 5? We need to avoid this No Lynch. Since you are obviously an active player, you can help and prevent the risk that Gorckat will lurk past deadline.

[SPAG]

Ok as we are so close to deadline, could somebody give me the case on para, and i will see if its worth my vote, i will catch up on the thread during the night phase.

[gorckat]

@vollkan: What gives you the impression I might lurk through the deadline?

@ckd: Per an earlier question, yes- I was calling you noob scum.

To you most recent question (vote reasons), I'm surprised no one else commented on your PM to SPAG.

[vollkan]

Ok as we are so close to deadline, could somebody give me the case on para, and i will see if its worth my vote, i will catch up on the thread during the night phase.

For now, I will list two of them (*am studying atm and cannot write a full post*)

Well I've never lynched a mafia on day one. =(

Vote:Nelly632

Unfortunately(unless he's mafia), he's forced our hand. It's 100% necessary to lynch someone who doesn't play.

that puts him at -3 I believe

This seems rather too sure that Nelly is scum to me, I agree that Nelly's play is very scummy, but outright stating that he's scum doesn't seem right to me, it could easily be a null tell on it's own (It's a common newbie mistake, I fell foul of it once as well), but it was also combined with saying that Nelly was at -3, when his vote put him at -1, which was pretty scummy and could very easily have ended up with Nelly being accidently lynched. It could have been a miscount, but being 2 off seems a bit much. I hardly see why the lynch is 100% necessary either, in fact, it fits with the accidental quicklynch theory. He says it's 100% necessary Nelly is lynched, someone sees that, and is further convinced that Nelly should be lynched, so puts a vote on him thinking he's putting him at -2, but is actually lynching Nelly. I think this deserves a FOS: Paradox

Then there was the "quote out of context" thing on Page 15 and its aftermath

Then the "flashing lights" scumtell raised by CKD.

And, of course, Oman.

I feel like I have said all this before (or read it all before) so I don't really want to retype it all out. There are other, less significant things, that have been raised by CKD in particular.

@vollkan: What gives you the impression I might lurk through the deadline?

I didn't know how active you were going to be. Plus, I have a concern that Para's (likely) scumpartner will try and score a No Lynch so I wanted people to be active.

[SPAG]

Ok, although i haven't been able to read through the whole thread, a selection of you seem pretty sure on Para, and from what i have read on him (I looked through his posts) he is looking like the prime suspect at the moment.

Well, I'm going to go with it.

vote : para

I just hope we are right.

[gorckat]

xombie's at -1 by my count (3 votes since volk quoted the vote count). Given the choice between No-Lynch and Lynch in this situation, I'll always favor lynch and will hammer xombie closer to deadline. We're nowhere near LYLO and it whittles down the suspects, but at the moment, I'm not sure xombie is it.

A decent case

has

been made, but we have a little time.

[vollkan]

xombie's at -1 by my count (3 votes since volk quoted the vote count). Given the choice between No-Lynch and Lynch in this situation, I'll always favor lynch and will hammer xombie closer to deadline. We're nowhere near LYLO and it whittles down the suspects, but at the moment, I'm not sure xombie is it.

A decent case has been made, but we have a little time.

Okay, that's good.

I know in principle the fact that we have time to use means we shouldn't go ahead with the lynch right now, but I would query how much information we will actually gain by sitting here and waiting for you to hammer (which is what it seems is just going to happen now).

[gorckat]

For one, looking at why ckd pm'd SPAG.

[curiouskarmadog]

For one, looking at why ckd pm'd SPAG.

because I thought the Mod said we could..once I realize that he didnt mean that...I instantly published what I PMed him

[vollkan]

because I thought the Mod said we could..once I realize that he didnt mean that...I instantly published what I PMed him

I can't think of any way to verify that that is all you said in the PM.

Guys, seriously, pm your friends. I am trying very hard to find replacements before deadline.

He did say "friends", which might leap out as suspicious in the context of your PM, but then again, ABR did say he was having difficulty getting replacements so I suppose you could have thought he meant to PM the other players in this game because replacement-obtaining was too hard...

The fact that you PM'ed is odd, but it doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious at this stage.

[gorckat]

ckd: What was your motivation?

[curiouskarmadog]

OK so I am in other games with SPAG (if you metagame you will find me voting for SPAG in other games because he was actively posting in other threads while letting other games[like this one] go or he was lurking.) I have already been “called down” for asking for prods to frequently. I essentially wanted to have SPAG prodded here when I wrote.

I am still playing guys, just had some RL problems.

what is the deal with SPAG? His RL problems are not stopping him for posting frequently in other games (3 posts yesterday)...the above post was posted 7 days ago....

so Albert posts this.

Guys, seriously, pm your friends. I am trying very hard to find replacements before deadline.

I read this as he was having a hard time finding replacements and he wanted us to help by Pming our friends (I thought he met the people in the thread) because he was too busy.

In post 407 he mentions he has little time…then again later he posts.

I'm considering it. Keep discussion going.

I am going to add a new special rule: don't second guess me. I have already asked extensive advice from higher powers and the most experienced mods, so it isn't your place to question me at every turn. Honestly, I only have a limited amount of time to finish this game up because of a new personal routine I am implementing. Upon a rough estimation, I would give this game maybe another 5 weeks or so.

EDIT: If I can somehow find replacements before deadline, I am likely to give you an extension of a week or two. If not, deadline is set in cement and the replacements will arrive on day 2.

So I thought he wanted us to prod (in this case SPAG).

Thus I wrote…

Guys, seriously, pm your friends. I am trying very hard to find replacements before deadline.

so we can pm them?

Not wanting to second guess him I Pmed SPAG exactly what I said I did…7 minutes later, Albert mentioned recruit replacements….figuring out my error (1 minute after Albert’s post) I posted that I did PM and what I PMed…

My only motivation was to have SPAG active or replaced before deadline.

[gorckat]

And not pulse?

[SPAG]

CKD only PMed me for the good of the game, guys don't be silly.

[JordanA24]

I'm willing to trust CKD didn't PM any game related info to SPAG.

[Elias_the_thief]

The people I'm most suspicious of right now in order of scumminess:

Elias - I find it hilarious that the same guy who claims my vote for oj was poor was going to lynch Nelly on page 6 for no other reason than because he self-voted. And was going to lynch him over me, even though he claims to be more suspicious of me! Can anyone else see the inherent contradiction here? It seems to me like he jumped on Nelly's wagon because it looked like a convenient ride to a lynch even though he knew there was probably a stronger case against me. I don't like the concept of voting in favor of convenience over legitimate suspicions AT ALL. That's a huge scumtell in my mind. Even after rereading vollkan interrogating him my mind hasn't changed on this, especially given how he continually avoided questions (see vollkan point this out in post 253, which is probably where I got the "shifty" impression from).

I went over time and time again how I never intended to lynch Nelly, only pressure him. You do realize that voting someone does not necessarily mean you want them lynched right?

As to the PM issue, it doesnt seem like to big a deal at all. And in response to this,

OK, lets assume for a minute Paradox is scum and Pulse is town:

Oman posts a list of vigging choices, putting Paradox at the top and Pulse second, hoping that Paradox is vigged and that gives him some town cred. But then he is asked whether he would prefer that Pulse is vigged and Paradox is lynched. If he was looking to sacrifice one of his own to gain town cred, why would he say he approved that Paradox was lynched rather than vigged? If Paradox is lynched, the town might later end up saying "I bet Oman said he approved Paradox was lynched rather than vigged because he wanted to see whether it was neccessary to get rid of one of his own, since a vigging is instant, and a lynch isn't." So if Oman wanted to gain as much town cred as possible, he'd have stuck with vigging Paradox rather than Pulse, rather than risk Paradox not being lynched and not gaining any town cred, and even if Paradox would have been lynched, he wouldn't have gained as much town cred than if Paradox was vigged.

I hope that made sense.

I say unto you...WIFOM.

[curiouskarmadog]

And not pulse?

I thought I read that ALbert prodded pulse already...I didnt see him say he prodded SPAG.

[gorckat]

unvote

I suppose we can wait for Day 2 to explore it a bit more (if anyone is inclined). I considered the 'PM to a friend' a sign that one (active) scum pmed (a flaky) scum.

The mild reactions by others in the town appease me.

Anyone object to me hammering xombie (aside from xombie, of course )? I'll put it within 24 hours, assuming no objections.

[JordanA24]

Well, I have objections which I've already stated, all I say is I urge all of you voting for Paradox to reconsider and really think about this. I still find Hermit to be a much better lynch.

[curiouskarmadog]

Well, I have objections which I've already stated, all I say is I urge all of you voting for Paradox to reconsider and really think about this. I still find Hermit to be a much better lynch.

I always get hesitant about having my vote assocaited with a lynch, because I like to think I am a pretty decent scum hunter...I get a scum vibe off Para from is miscounting and misquoting to his slip ups..I just think this guy looking at this game from a scum prespective

I stand by my vote.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I am having second thoughts on both accounts. I feel as if Hermits play could be excused easily by being a noob, and I feel that Para being placed # 1 on Omans vig list is a pretty good town tell. But their scum tells are still pretty large. Im pretty conflicted, and I'm starting to feel worried about the people that are inactive.

And once again, I ask for a deadline extension

so I can mull things over.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Mod Announcement

Deadline has been extended to September 13, 20:00 EST.

[Elias_the_thief]

Excellent. Imma look at other players later tonight.