California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

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I confirm my presence as requested.

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Oh please, can't you find a better target than one given to you by a website? Can't you employ a bit of critical thinking and think about who should get your "random" vote? That wouldn't be too much trouble, would it?

For example, I have looked at the player list, compared my possibilities and threw a dice. Isn't that far more helpful and far more likely to incite discussion?

Vote: xyzzy

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*hops*

Unvote, vote: xyzzy

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Gah.

Unvote, vote: skruffs

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foolinc, if you had read the second post carefully, you would have noticed that the game is based only (very) loosely on the Count of Monte Cristo.

Apart from the usual reasons to not needlessly speculate about the set up, we have the additional reason of having nearly nothing to go on. If you want to help get this game started, you should, uh, vote for Skruffs.

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Or because Condorcet voting only matters if we make it to the deadline. There's no particular reason why we'd have to make a list to accompany our votes in this game as opposed to other games at this point.

I will happily make a list if and when the deadline nears, but to do soon would be excessive.

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Adding players to a list won't magically tell the town what people are thinking, Oman. If you want to know who someone suspects, just ask them, which is true of every game.

I still like my Skruffs vote(and not just because he's the top vote-getter).

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FoS: VitaminR

I absolutely disagree. Dragon Phoenix was digging in places where townies should be digging. Ultimately I think jeep has clarified his position okay, but there was definitely something there. It would have been wrong to have let it slide or to pretend it wasn't something.

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Jeep, about that Mgm quote, I agree it could have a slight discouraging effect, but do you really think that was Mgm's intent? Do you think Mgm thinks discouraging Condorcet voting to be pro-scum? I don't think it hurts the town. There's no real reason to think Mgm does.

How is that quote more consistent with Mgmscum than Mgmtown motivewise?

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no, I don't think that MGM thinks that discouraging it is pro-scum.

Jeep is basically admitting here that the mgm quote isn't scummy. After all, it's the intent that makes the scum, not the action. You can't argue that Mgm is scummy for doing something pro-scum if you don't really believe Mgm thinks it's pro-scum.

Jeep is acting inconsistent and is not exhibiting townie characteristics.

Unvote, vote: Jeep

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Xyzzy - What do you personally think about the YAY THESP? Do you think I was tryign to accolade THesp to the point where people would say he's town? Do you think I was appealing to authority? Do you think I am scum buddying up to someone I know is town? Looking for help in defending myself? Or saying hi?
I disagree that if 20 people say someone is town, that you will think he is town. IF you have a reason to believe he is NOT town, you should say so. Going with the flow = mislynches because then you are basically just a swing vote with no opinion of your own.

I thikn you were assuming he

must be

town because he's good.

Why would he have to be town because he's good? That's just patently silly, xyzzy. Think before you type, please.

Adele is fun to read, and I agree with her opinions for the most part. Skruffs haters, pay attention:

I'm not going to analyze her at this time, because I like the way she is playing this game.

This is scummy in so many ways.... and ironically for the same reason as your Thesp comments.

Do you think scum would play like that? I personally think it shows Skruffs isn't afraid or excessively out to save himself. I think townies are more likely to just play while scum have a tendency to be more cautious.

So I ask you, xyzzy: is that really such a scummy comment if you look at it motivewise?

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Hey guys, I'm back!

Still like my jeep/Battle Mage vote!

What?!?!? Scum will only do pro-scum stuff that they don't realize is pro-scum. If they do stuff that they think is pro-scum, they are stupid. This has got to be the most backwards thing I've read in a LONG time.

If this were true, there'd be no way to differentiate between townies and scum when it comes to scummy actions as both would have to be unaware of the (pro-scum) consequences of their scummy actions. This is very much wrong. If Mgmscum thought discouraging the use of list voting was pro-scum and he didn't expect to be held accountable for it, then he absolutely should do the pro-scum thing.

Not to mention that if scum only do pro-scum stuff consciously if they're stupid, then smart scum shouldn't attempt to get any pro-town players lynched. Distinctly untrue.

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Except for PR3, which was a bit of an exception anyways, any game witwh two families referenced those families in the first post. Maybe there are tons of games that break the mold, but these are the games I have had experience with.

Goats Mafia didn't and it had 2 mafias and 1 SK. There's no particular reason for the first post to tell you how many mafias there are.

I didn’t like MgM’s opening vote of CES. It looked like an attempt to protect himself from an inevitable vote (no respectable player likes to resort to OMGUS).

At the time of his vote, I was already busy bandwagonning, so I was quite unlikely to vote for him at that time. In fact, if he wanted to avoid getting voted for, the best thing to do was to vote for a respectable someone who hadn't posted who might choose Mgm for his/her opening vote if your reasoning was correct.

I doubt it is though, as I don't really see people avoiding OMGUS votes. I certainly don't shy away from them.

When I read Jeep's bit, I agreed: scum don't do stuff that makes them look scummy on purpose, duuuh.
When I read CES's bit, I agreed: scum do do stuff that'll help them achieve their WC, duuuh.
Have I adequately summarised your positions? I think that might be a disagreement caused by confusion over the meaning of "pro-scum".

What meaning would jeep then subscribe to, exactly?

Please pay close attention to the wording here - this is a subtle point, a freudian slip. "If I mention a second family, this implies that there is a first" - as if he's talking not about how things might be, but how they are.

I think we can be assured at least one mafia group, Adele. This isn't particularly compelling. The wording doesn't suggest the definite existence of two families, as far as I can see.

Pssshhhht
^^^^The sound of a hole being poked in a case.

Not at all. If you were part of a 3-player mafia, wouldn't you expect there to be another mafia? I definitely would. (I still don't agree with the case though.)

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If I wait till monday, I'll have more influence over who's getting lynched today. I'm devious!

(It also helps the town because I might be able to ensure a lynch over no lynch if necessary.)

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And, quite frankly, I want to see your list now.

This is the only convincing part of your post.

More importantly, I found a rather large hole in my devious plan, which is that my access is very shaky on monday. I should think more before I plan.

I'll re-read today and make a list with at least 5 tiers of scummitude, not including myself and no-lynch.

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You're forgetting Occam's Razor.

You should prefer the simpler solution if it works just as well, but that doesn't mean discounting the other solution alltogether. If he feels the other option is still realistic, then he should take it into account. Scum tells tend to be probabilistic in method and some do have simpler town explanations than scum ones, but that doesn't make them any less useful when it comes to finding scum.

Of course, LmL's "scum tell" is very likely bogus, as it's not something I expect scum to do consciously at all, but that's besides the point.

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Then why bring up Occam's Razor? Occam's Razor basically states that you should prefer simpler theories and explanations, which is true, but not particularly applicable to scum tells. The townie option can be superior without the scum tell losing its value.

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Additional mafia groups are more common.

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I don't consider what Zindy did a scum tell, no. But that doesn't mean I don't disagree with your reasons for disagreeing with LmL's stance.

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Zindaras is the one who asked for clarification. LmL is the one who considers it a scum tell. We're talking about both.

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Also, Gaspar, dude, as I repeated previously, there's nothing special in non-deadline situations about making lists of suspects in this game, so if you want to advocate making lists all the time in this game, you should advocate it in all games.

Time to make my list, but first some explanations in a fairly arbitrary format:
Cubsfan (for his first post), Skruffs (for his attempt to paint the bandwagonners in a scummy light early on), Mgm (Occam's Razor), LoudmouthLee (see posts 162-163, otherwise has acted his loud self), xyzzy(likes J-pop(my favourite scum tell)), logicticus (gut, inquisitive)

Vote: Battle Mage

, [Cubsfan, Skruffs], [Mgm, LoudmouthLee, xyzzy], [everyone else, excluding me], [Dragon Phoenix, logicticus]

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It's an ability worth keeping around and I tend to believe the claim, so that's settled as far as I'm concerned.

Guess that means LmL'll be today's lynch lest we be forced to rush through a decision during the little time we have left.

Unvote: BM

, keep the rest of my list intact

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If you want to see the implications of certain list changes, you can just change the info in mith's links and input them. You get to see if there's a Condorcet winner and who.

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I would imagine the Iocaine Powder's just a reference, Mgm. I'm not expecting it to show up any more than I'm expecting spontaneous combustion to show up.

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This reminds me of Pooky's claim of Stephen Hawking.

I'm gonna call this a Freudian slip and say you're attracted to wheelchairs.

BM, what's preventing you from paraphrasing your role PM today rather than tomorrow?

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Sweet. Daykill! *hi-fives dayvig*

Vote: Skruffs

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Except Cubs was Kirk Kerkorian and didn't actually kill anyone. There's no reason to assume he was telling the truth or actually had any functional ability.

Day-SKs generally do one of two things:
1. Pretend to be a day-vig
2. just kill whoever they want.
Would a day-SK kill xyzzy this early in the day? I seriously doubt it. Killing xyzzy is consistent with 1. Killing early is not. I can see a real dayvig taking out xyzzy though, as a result of a desire to avoid the deadline rush that plagued Day 1. If you kill him early, then the town has all the time in the world to find a new lynch candidate.

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Pretending to be vig is gonna be hard when you have such a distinctive killing MO. The only way that really works is if the SK had a safe claim which works as a poisoning vig claim. Mucho unlikely.

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But you'd need a darn good claim that was consistent with poisoning to get away with it, Mgm. It's possible, just really unlikely.

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(which i find to be odd terminology, how does he know it wasnt a real dayvig? why does it need to be qualified?)

Easy. I was talking about a real dayvig as opposed to a daySK pretending to be one.

Aside from the terminology, i find this logic lacking. If anything, taking out xyzzy is more likely to lead to a deadline rush. He was second in the voting after cubs and it wouldnt have taken much to get him lynched before the deadline. In the couple posts before his death, people were already lining up to lynch him. Now that he is dead, we are starting without a lead candidate which will prolong the day.

A day should be more than enough time for a town to find a lynch target. Losing its main lynch target later in the day could however easily cause the town to screw up.

This blows holes in my theory.

Your theory? Please elucidate.

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Thesp, I can't say I'm surprised by your response, but I'm counting on you to share your theory the moment the disadvantages disappear/disadvantage disappears. (If you're still alive at that point, that is.)

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Jeep/BM had claimed an information role and it isn't all that clear who(dayvig or poisoner most likely) killed xyzzy, foolinc. That looks like a useless line of inquiry.

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Well, I'm not a fan of foolinc's latest posts, so I can't say I'd protest a foolinc-lynch.

I'm not really seeing the case on Adele though. I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary from her.

Skruffs, if you want to know why I'm voting for you, you can look back to yesterday. It's the same reason for your place on my list. Everyone above you died.

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My suspicion of you was never related to Cubs, nor did I ever suggest it was.

You are being incredible OMGUSy, Skruffs.

Also, time to condorcet!

Vote: Skruffs

, [Mgm], [everyone else, excluding me], [Dragon Phoenix, logicticus]

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So because the evidence might lead you astray, you should just discard it outright?

Nightkill analysis isn't the most useful line of inquiry, but I certainly wouldn't call it useless. Whenever I'm scum, I certainly do prefer to kill people who are suspicious of me, 'cause the town totally lets me get away with it and because it isn't all that easy to interpret.

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Psst, MBL, Mgm has claimed to be a character from the book. So, um, he should (pretend to) know he's town.

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If Thesp were a lyncher in this game, he'd just claim a guilty on Dani. Which is also why lynchers suck in a closed setup forum game. They're way too easy.

I have trouble imagining a townie seriously considering the possibility. Dani's post, thus, is scummy.

Mgm's claim can be justified. I don't think I'd have done it that quickly, but I do not see this action as inconsistent with Mgmtown.

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Way to fish, Skruffs.

Xyzzy and Cubs were both from Fresno.

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It's time for foolinc to claim. He's dominating the Condorcet and you know, deadline.

MBL I'm not even going try to read. That never leads anywhere (for me).

To pre-empt metagaming, yes, I also took this position in Face-to-Face. I meant it. It is not any less valid just 'cause I was scum and, uh, he was my scum buddy.

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MBL, I probably should've moved foolinc up to the same level of Mgm. That would've better reflected my suspicions. I should also note that my demand for a claim was mostly motivated by the proximity of the deadline.

I'm inclined to believe his claim at this point.

About dayvigs and daySKs, what Talitha said, but also: cops don't often come out to claim innocents on people day 2. Your objection doesn't even mesh well with a SK, for that matter.

If Mgm is scum, Eugenie is most likely a fake claim.

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Talitha is right. If you're a member of a 3-man mafia in a game this size, you'd expect there to be another.

I need to re-read because all my suspects are dead. Which is problematic.

Tamuz, Innocent is Skruffs' alignment. There's no reason to assume that tells us anything about his role.

FoS: Tamuz

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I seriously doubt it, Talitha. I read "Innocent Fresnino" as "Innocent citizen of Fresno". Reading it as a name really is a stretch. He would've made it clearer if that were the case. "John Doe" or something.

I personally tend to think mith would've included some regular townies in the game, so I see no reason for IH to die at this time.

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Not to mention that that assumption totally doesn't jive with the xyzzy kill. I don't really care that LmL used LACE and XYZZY. FoS: whoever brought it up. You wasted our time with your petty suspicions. Die, person whose identity I'm too lazy to look up!

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Guys, we need to focus on finding scum rather than worrying about Mr Grey and silly coincidences. I acknowledge that I myself have been lacking in this area recently and I resolve to re-read the game and help give this game a boost.

We need to find scum to lynch.

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The LACE thing is still bull. Wesson certainly doesn't seem the type for poisoning people. So I stand by my position from yesterday and just gonna say you all got lucky.

I agree with DP that the Pooky-thing was probably just spite. I imagine it would be very frustrating to get lynched as the SK over a theory that's completely wrong.

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When you say "you all got lucky" it almost sounds as if you are not including yourself with us.

I merely do not include myself in the group of people responsible for lynching LmL. Which is logical, because I opposed his lynch.

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Gaspar is right. Pooky is wrong.

Remember at the end of 2-Headed Giant when whomever it made the right lynch (on PJ) for completely wrong/flawed reasons. He got lucky. He nailed the scum when good logic should've directed him to a mislynch and he used flawed logic instead.

Actually, if he had mislynched, it would've been based on flawed logic too, just not as flawed. Good logic would've also resulted in the lynch on PJ(as lynching me would assuredly have lost him (and me) the game).