NY 189 - Flower Viewing Festival [~fin~]

[Sakura Hana]

when did i hammer a cop?

Pick your poison, but you were scum in that game.

OMG that game, that was great.....

like i didnt get how i survived for so long....

but you should realize by now there is a tell to my town hammering and scum hammering

Yeah that was my first time seeing scum you, so i thought the hammering was more related to you being scum than you being you, i learned more about how to tell your alignment later on.

[Sakura Hana]

I wouldn't place reads affected by what people have rolled in the past but by play, regardless of how many times a coin lands tails in a row, it still has 50% chance to land on heads next coin flip, not more.

[ika]

when did i hammer a cop?

Pick your poison, but you were scum in that game.

OMG that game, that was great.....

like i didnt get how i survived for so long....

but you should realize by now there is a tell to my town hammering and scum hammering

Yeah that was my first time seeing scum you, so i thought the hammering was more related to you being scum than you being you, i learned more about how to tell your alignment later on.

well hammering in itself is a null-tell. that game hammering was entirly related to me being scum. if i was town i woudl of at least waited for a claim

[Sakura Hana]

if i was town i woudl of at least waited for a claim

You didn't wait for a claim here tho. woot

[ika]

if i was town i woudl of at least waited for a claim

You didn't wait for a claim here tho. woot

i was refering to PYP. there its open setup so you could of claimed one of the set prs. here its nearly an anything goes game.

[Salamence20]

TN lynch wheeeeee

[Shiro]

I wouldn't place reads affected by what people have rolled in the past but by play, regardless of how many times a coin lands tails in a row, it still has 50% chance to land on heads next coin flip, not more.

each individual coin has 50% chance landing tails or heads

But landing heads twice in row is 25% thrice in row is 12.5% Quadrape in row is 6.25% so on and so on

[Salamence20]

I wouldn't place reads affected by what people have rolled in the past but by play, regardless of how many times a coin lands tails in a row, it still has 50% chance to land on heads next coin flip, not more.

each individual coin has 50% chance landing tails or heads

But landing heads twice in row is 25% thrice in row is 12.5% Quadrape in row is 6.25% so on and so on

I love this

[Sakura Hana]

Idk, i just read this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[Sakura Hana]

Besides, 100% Orange Juice, shows that Gambler's fallacy is BS Just ask pie *runs*

[Salamence20]

Sakura are you a fruit vendor?

Send me an apple!

[Sakura Hana]

Sakura are you a fruit vendor?

Send me an apple!

I am not, why are you even asking me this

[Davsto]

I wouldn't place reads affected by what people have rolled in the past but by play, regardless of how many times a coin lands tails in a row, it still has 50% chance to land on heads next coin flip, not more.

each individual coin has 50% chance landing tails or heads

But landing heads twice in row is 25% thrice in row is 12.5% Quadrape in row is 6.25% so on and so on

But each individual flip only has 50% chance to land heads/tails.

Here's a basic image to show coin flip probabilities.

[Salamence20]

100% Orange

I SEE YOUR SOFT

[Davsto]

Now, from that, it is more likely for a coin to flip Heads twice and Tails once than Heads thrice and Tails none.

But that's only because there are 3 possibilities for the former (HHT,HTH,THH) whereas only one for the latter (HHH).

[ika]

well isnt there something about coins also being like 49.9% on one side and 50.1% on the othe ror some stupid shit?

[Sakura Hana]

100% Orange

I SEE YOUR SOFT

http://store.steampowered.com/app/282800/
No it was a reference to this game that i play with pie sometimes, this game really throws Gambler's fallacy out of the window.

[ika]

found it

its not a set 50/50

[Flubbernugget]

Mafia doc is not normal.

Try again.

A Mafia Doctor in a Normal game does not return a guilty result to a Gunsmith (unless it is part of a Jack of All Trades),

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mafia_Doctor

Not game related but Holy fuck how does something this convoluted even happen

[Salamence20]

Mafia doc is not normal.

Try again.

A Mafia Doctor in a Normal game does not return a guilty result to a Gunsmith (unless it is part of a Jack of All Trades),

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mafia_Doctor

Not game related but Holy fuck how does something this convoluted even happen

well isnt there something about coins also being like 49.9% on one side and 50.1% on the othe ror some stupid shit?

What the fuck.

100% Orange

I SEE YOUR SOFT

http://store.steampowered.com/app/282800/
No it was a reference to this game that i play with pie sometimes, this game really throws Gambler's fallacy out of the window.

What the fuck.

Mafia doc is not normal.

Try again.

A Mafia Doctor in a Normal game does not return a guilty result to a Gunsmith (unless it is part of a Jack of All Trades),

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mafia_Doctor

Not game related but Holy fuck how does something this convoluted even happen

What the fuck?

[Shiro]

100% Orange

I SEE YOUR SOFT

http://store.steampowered.com/app/282800/
No it was a reference to this game that i play with pie sometimes, this game really throws Gambler's fallacy out of the window.

I was thinking of buying that game but I ended up never doing so. I was told that the AI cheats and the game, makes you want to break your pc


and it seems yea apparently the chances are only smaller if all event are happening at the same time with previous resaults being unknown

[ika]

skaura if i got the game would you playw ith em?

[Davsto]

That may be true, but that's irrelevant to Gambler's Fallacy.

The whole point of Gambler's Fallacy is that, supposedly, if a coin flips heads, say, 20 times in a row, it is more likely to flip tails next, presuming a fair coin.

While, overall, it is more likely for the coins (with a true 50/50 chance) to have a 1/1-close H/T ratio, previous flips do not affect what the next coin will flip.

(basically what i'm saying is that if you use gambler's fallacy as actual reasoning i'll slap you)

[Spiffeh]

Is this really a thing that we're talking about rn lol

[Flubbernugget]

I missed the reasoning behind a mafia doc being worth discussing