Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?

[Haschel Cedricson]

I was thinking about this game in the shower this morning, and what kept coming back to me was c_d taking Battle Mage off of his list while showing extreme confidence, under the grounds that Mafia would not even entertain the option of no-lynch. However, no matter whether we lynch or not, we're still going to be in Lylo for the rest of the game. The scum can afford to suggest no-lynch, because it gives them a free nightkill while not risking having one of their own get strung up today.

So, if the scum don't care if we lynch or not, why does BM suggesting no-lynch merit clearing him from our short lists?

It doesn't.

Either BM is scum and c_d is his partner, or c_d is buddying up to a town in hopes that he doesn't get lynched the next day.

Either way, c_d is scum.

Confirm Vote: chaotic_diablo

[chaotic_diablo]

I was thinking about this game in the shower this morning, and what kept coming back to me was c_d taking Battle Mage off of his list while showing extreme confidence, under the grounds that Mafia would not even entertain the option of no-lynch. However, no matter whether we lynch or not, we're still going to be in Lylo for the rest of the game. The scum can afford to suggest no-lynch, because it gives them a free nightkill while not risking having one of their own get strung up today.

If we lynch scum and a doc protects, we are no longer at Lylo. Scum cannot afford to not lynch if we remove players from our list and decrease the number of players possible to be scum.

So, if the scum don't care if we lynch or not, why does BM suggesting no-lynch merit clearing him from our short lists?

Because I've explained that scum will not want a prolonged game. It will bring more opportunites to make slipups and mistakes. If they decide to no lynch today, then they are basically giving us another chance at catching them. In addition, if we no lynch and they kill off someone, then they basically increase their own chances of being caught. Their free nightkill just screwed them over. For this one instance, I'll quote myself.

You(BM) randomly state that our odds of hitting scum will be higher if we no lynch, then expect scum to go along with a no lynch and screw themselves? That's ILLOGICAL.

Either BM is scum and c_d is his partner, or c_d is buddying up to a town in hopes that he doesn't get lynched the next day.

Either way, c_d is scum.

I beg to differ.

You have shown us that your attack is flawed and scummy to begin with. In addition, I can already point out several EXTRA reasons why it's a bunch of BS. Here's one of them.

Furthermore, I don't think anybody at this point is guaranteed town, and I don't agree with his reasoning for taking BM off of the list. If it wasn't so obvious, I'd say that c_d and BM were partners.

In this post you understand my reasoning on why I removed BM from my list. In otherwords, you read my post.

BM is probably town given that scum wouldn't no lynch at a Lylo situation. Let's assume we are at Lylo, that means we can semi-clear BM from our list of eight players. I'll take myself off since I'm going to create my own list.

However, you seem to have ignored the content of this post.

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

And simplifed it out of context as a means to attack me.

It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch.

Since you seem to have understood my posts from the beginning, I can only say that you're intentionally trying to mislynch.

[chaotic_diablo]

Because I've explained that scum will not want a prolonged game. It will bring more opportunites to make slipups and mistakes. If they decide to no lynch today, then they are basically giving us another chance at catching them. In addition, if we no lynch and they kill off someone, then they basically increase their own chances of being caught. Their free nightkill just screwed them over.

Relative to scum, this means they do not want a no lynch. However, why don't we just no lynch and screw them over? Because scum can offset our advantage by choosing not to kill. Why the hell would they give up their kill? Considering that we gave up on a lynch, the question isn't so surprising. No lynches should only be considered if we are waiting for an important night result or investigation. Otherwise we receive no benefits and return to square one.

In my previous posts, I posted a scenario in which scum will target BM. That is because I removed him from my list as an attempt to find scum. The point is to force scum to target a particular person to keep our lists as large as possible. However, if the target is predictable, it can easily be countered by a doc protect. In this way, we are no longer at Lylo. However, it doesn't work if we cannot remove anyone from our list.

[dahen]

Doing a re-read:

BM: Hates a post of mine and have strange logics about what's good as scum/town. Also posts first after the cop's death and says he's confused.
Then he has a pretty crappy case against BT and tries to use all retorics he can to justify it instead of dropping it and finding someone more scummy.
Something is very wrong with BM.

BT: Does a good job defending himself, but it's an easy case to defend. However, I'm a bit surprised at the LyLo/no lynch thing when it first comes up, but further post are better on this.

CD: Is skimming and also wants BM to explain. Could be anything, but I have a bad feeling about him. His post regarding not no-lynch is good.

Regarding the follow up regarding TCS/BM/MBL, he is correct. And he is right that I advocated a lynch of TCS if MBL turned up town. However, he didn't. MBL was SK, TCS was cop. None was mafia, so nor mafia nor town would know who was what.

Mafia would probably guess that one was SK and one was cop (or two cops where one is non-sane) and, since TCS was onto MBL, also figure out who is who. However, mafia would definately not need to lynch one and then the other the next day, since mafia would probably nightkill the other. So I think CD's point doesn't quite work.

Also, I suspect that CD waited to bring this up until now (this was not any new information to me, at least) to let the heat of BM cool off. CD was himslef voting BM and I think he's trying to move us away from BM here. Also, he later votes Ectomancer without even unvoting to show he was voting BM. Then he even states that BM is town for suggesting no-lynch. I disagree completely.

alko: Asking questions but not stating much himself. I agree completely with his post #284 regarding no-lynch strategy, but I'd say this as town or scum and I think he would too.

Ecto: Has not made many impressions on me. Gut says town, but voting for arrogance. Hmm.

I have skimmed the last two pages and will read them more carefully. But I think I have enough for a

accuse: BM

suspect: CD

[Battle Mage]

hmm now im very conflicted. Scum seem to be coming out of the woodwork to cast suspicion on me (though what for, i have no idea). This is why i wanted to no-lynch. If people like Haschel Cedricson and Dahen have their way, and i get lynched, we lose the game today. But then there are 2 options to give us a chance. One is to try and lynch one of them and hope that the odds of them being scum win through. The other is to follow (was it CD's plan?) of No-Lynching, and then seeing who dies, as it should give us a good indication of who might be scum, especially if i am killed, as somebody suggested. I dont think waiting on a Doc is a good idea.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

To be honest, i have too many suspects to safely lynch today. I'd rather wait till tomorrow when we might have a better idea of what we are up against.

BM

[dahen]

I'll follow up with a closer look at the last pages:

BT, appreciating the reread from you. I'm here and active now. I would prefer more if you were suspicious of everyone rather than following a no-lynch idea just because you are frustrated.

CD, I still think that your posts have a strange timing. Claiming that the nolynch idea clears BM after accusing him and then listing other people. I really hope you are testing something and that this is not a general idea of yours, because I'd always suggest no-lynch as scum in your games then to be cleared by you and then enjoy the free night kills.

And now you are crossing out BT from the list of scum as well for considering a no lynch?

Well, feel free to keep me on the list, because I will NOT no-lynch in this game, and I sure know my numbers. Someone is turning this into a discussion of lynching vs. no-lynching.
If those who haven't already could state their standpoint on this we could then move on and look for scuminess instead.

However, interesting to read that you don't advocate the no lynching idea. Now you are making more sense, but I don't like the fact that I'm on your list when we both believe that no-lynch is correct. It's also interesting how it was BM who asked you the question where you stand. I still believe you could very well be scum together.

Alko, I agree with parts of your reread post, but why would you prefer a DoS lynch?

However, the silencing ability is interesting. If it's normal of a town to treat silenced players as town, then it's logical for a scum with the ability to use it on scum or not at all.

In any case, scum would like to silence an info role, but is it likely that DoS has that kind of info for us?

A reason for using the ability is of course to get rid of a vote.

Mod: If a scum is silenced with equal number of scums and town, will scum win or will townies be able to vote off one of the scums.

CD: You are certain that HC and Alko are scum. But didn't you say Ecto and myself before that? And before that it was BM. Sure, it's fine to be flexible, but I think you are switching around your votes based on very little.

Many of you seem to be certain that we are at Lylo right now. Then it would be interesting to go over any quick-lynching possibilities.

unaccuse

to avoid a quick-lynch.

BM: CD has a point in that giving up the lynch hands the decision over to scum. Scum can choose to kill or scum can pass the ball back to town. Scum will do what scum thinks is best. The only thing town can do in order to disrupt scum is to try to lynch scum.

I don't have more time now, but if we are at ly-lo, then we should have some negative information from the lack of quick-lynches to take into account. However, quick-lynches can be hard to coordinate, so we shouldn't trust the info blindly, but it can still be valuable.

[chaotic_diablo]

Regarding the follow up regarding TCS/BM/MBL, he is correct. And he is right that I advocated a lynch of TCS if MBL turned up town. However, he didn't. MBL was SK, TCS was cop. None was mafia, so nor mafia nor town would know who was what.

Mafia would probably guess that one was SK and one was cop (or two cops where one is non-sane) and, since TCS was onto MBL, also figure out who is who. However, mafia would definately not need to lynch one and then the other the next day, since mafia would probably nightkill the other. So I think CD's point doesn't quite work.

Considering the situation, it is most likely scum didn't know MBL's alignment and assumed that TCS was paranoid or something. It would have been an extremely persuasive argument to lynch two town players if it had followed through.
If MBL was town, then it would mean nightkilling TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. It would be easy to advocate a lynch on a cop with an inaccurate result. Given the circumstances of his claim, it wouldn't even be a challenge. However, since TCS's result was accurate, the nightkill switched to a higher priority.
The main point of the argument is that both were not part of the mafia inner circles. That means mafia should have been fine with killing either of them.

Also, I suspect that CD waited to bring this up until now (this was not any new information to me, at least) to let the heat of BM cool off. CD was himslef voting BM and I think he's trying to move us away from BM here. Also, he later votes Ectomancer without even unvoting to show he was voting BM. Then he even states that BM is town for suggesting no-lynch. I disagree completely

I never voted for BM. Not unvoting is simply there as a sign that I never voted before. It isn't a sign of distancing.

CD, I still think that your posts have a strange timing. Claiming that the nolynch idea clears BM after accusing him and then listing other people. I really hope you are testing something and that this is not a general idea of yours, because I'd always suggest no-lynch as scum in your games then to be cleared by you and then enjoy the free night kills.

It could be possible. However, I'm relying on the fact that it's BM. I'm not interested in WIFOM. If it turns up to be such a situation, I choose the one most likely to occur and stick with it.

And now you are crossing out BT from the list of scum as well for considering a no lynch?

And other reasons.

Well, feel free to keep me on the list, because I will NOT no-lynch in this game, and I sure know my numbers.

If you insist.

However, interesting to read that you don't advocate the no lynching idea. Now you are making more sense, but I don't like the fact that I'm on your list when we both believe that no-lynch is correct. It's also interesting how it was BM who asked you the question where you stand. I still believe you could very well be scum together.

Just because you want a lynch just as I do, it doesn't mean you're not scum. I already stated that scum and town want a lynch. They just want to reach different objectives.

BM was the primary supporter of a no lynch. Considering that I argued with him over it, I highly doubt BM asking my preference is a scum point.

CD: You are certain that HC and Alko are scum. But didn't you say Ecto and myself before that? And before that it was BM. Sure, it's fine to be flexible, but I think you are switching around your votes based on very little.

I said that you three probably scum. However, rereading and recent posts changed that. I don't remember saying that BM was scum to an extent as listing three players. I may point out several things a player does, but it is not a sum of my thoughts until I directly post it.

[al_kohaulec]

Alko, I agree with parts of your reread post, but why would you prefer a DoS lynch?

Well, I don't know that I'm reminded of his being silenced.

But later tonight I'll explain my reasoning back when I said I preferred a DoS lynch.

[al_kohaulec]

Alko, I agree with parts of your reread post, but why would you prefer a DoS lynch?

Well, I don't *now* that I'm reminded of his being silenced.

But later tonight I'll explain my reasoning back when I said I preferred a DoS lynch.

Most of my suspicions were that he's seemed to contribute only a little, and a lot of it had to do with "inactivity", which was really just the fact that he'd been silenced. So one of my main suspicions were under false pretenses, and as he's been silenced, he also hasn't been able to do more contributing.

I'm just hopin he's following along enough to be active on the next day.

[Battle Mage]

Ok i've thought about this at some length since last posting, and i've realised something that could be pretty significant. MoS is obviously a decent mod, and much as it is unadvisable to try and second-guess a decent mod, i'm going to do so here. So far we have found 1 SK. Now in a game i modded fairly recently, my setup featured 1 SK, and a scumPAIR. There was also a healthy assortment of protown power roles.
Both this game, and mine had 12 players. Similarly, i'd like to think they were both pretty well balanced. I think regardless of how it is being used, Silencing is a scum ability. It would fit to have 1 SK, and a scumpair-1 of whom has a mediocre additional power.
Of course, thats not to say that the scum havent, or wont, double bluff and use the ability on their own, hence DoS is still as much a suspect as anyone. I know if i was scum, i'd be keen to use such a power on a buddy, as to some extent it gives them a day of safety (no town enjoys lynching a guy who cant defend themselves).

Thinking about it, it is logical to assume that we have only 2 mafia remaining, and as such, i'm now confident that we are not at LyLo. If no protection roles have died as of yet, it might be wise to lynch today. If we have already lost either a Doc or an RB, then No-Lynching is still wise, as with an even number of players, it will be a necessity at some point. Might as well do it when the town has a greater majority over the scum, and thus can do so more easily.

I need to check the OP now before i make my decision based on this.
Suffice to say, i will be looking very carefully into who was most strongly pushing the belief that we are at LyLo.

BM

[Battle Mage]

well we've lost 3 investigative roles by the look of it, but none that protect, so i think lynching today might be wise. will reread and cast my vote later on.

meantime,

Unvote

[dahen]

Considering the situation, it is most likely scum didn't know MBL's alignment and assumed that TCS was paranoid or something. It would have been an extremely persuasive argument to lynch two town players if it had followed through.
If MBL was town, then it would mean nightkilling TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. It would be easy to advocate a lynch on a cop with an inaccurate result. Given the circumstances of his claim, it wouldn't even be a challenge. However, since TCS's result was accurate, the nightkill switched to a higher priority.
The main point of the argument is that both were not part of the mafia inner circles. That means mafia should have been fine with killing either of them.

You are right in what you write here. TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. However, I question why you point out my statement about TCS/MBL. Do you disagree with my original post (#214).

I never voted for BM.

I'm sorry. My notes were wrong. You're cleared on that point.

However, I'm relying on the fact that it's BM

Hmm, OK. Do you know him well? Would he only suggest no-lynch as town, you say. Now he's saying that he thinks we aren't at LyLo and that he will vote. What is your interpretation of that, CD?

[Battle Mage]

Dahen, if its all the same, i'd like YOU to comment on some of these things yourself, rather than asking others to feed you the answers...

[chaotic_diablo]

You are right in what you write here. TCS would be a waste of a nightkill. However, I question why you point out my statement about TCS/MBL. Do you disagree with my original post (#214).

It's not that I disagree, it's that you tried to set up another lynch for the next day. More importantly, there is this one statement I don't quite understand.

As for the game, I believe TCS and am inclined to vote for MBL, but I'd also prefer a claim. Tomorrow, if MBL turns up town, we lynch MBL(I figure this must be TCS), but not after hearing his result.

If he got an innocent and then comes up as cop, he must be paranoid and we have nailed one scum.

I'm not quite sure what you mean when we've

nailed one scum.

If MBL is town and TCS is cop, it would mean we've nailed no scum at all. Now, the only thing I can think of is that you made a mistake. However, it also implies that you knew what was going to happen beforehand and slipped up with the inside information you had. Then you provided insight in your more rececnt posts.

Mafia would probably guess that one was SK

and one was cop (or two cops where one is non-sane) and, since TCS was onto MBL, also figure out who is who. However, mafia would definately not need to lynch one and then the other the next day, since mafia would probably nightkill the other. So I think CD's point doesn't quite work.

The coincidence seems to fit perfectly. Though the SK isn't part of the mafia, I still find it extremely strange.

Hmm, OK. Do you know him well? Would he only suggest no-lynch as town, you say. Now he's saying that he thinks we aren't at LyLo and that he will vote. What is your interpretation of that, CD?

I know BM well enough that half his posts aren't accurate representation of his own alignment. In addition, he's illogical and would probably screw his teammates in one way or another. If anything BM says is logical, then it's the apocalypse. If you allow me to quote Ectomancer,

I voted for him because he wasnt voting. Now that BM is here though, this wagon(ancalogan) is starting to smell.

unvote

Of course, it's not because BM is scum, it's because the majority of his interpretation of the game is off by miles. I've been in perhaps a few games with him, it's been the almost the same everytime. Allow me to give another example, quoted from Billy.

I actually agree (gulp) with BM's logic here...

No offense BM. I can say that you've been playing much better recently if that makes it up.

[dahen]

As for the game, I believe TCS and am inclined to vote for MBL, but I'd also prefer a claim. Tomorrow, if MBL turns up town, we lynch MBL(I figure this must be TCS), but not after hearing his result.

If he got an innocent and then comes up as cop, he must be paranoid and we have nailed one scum

.

I'm not quite sure what you mean when we've nailed one scum. If MBL is town and TCS is cop, it would mean we've nailed no scum at all. Now, the only thing I can think of is that you made a mistake. However, it also implies that you knew what was going to happen beforehand and slipped up with the inside information you had. Then you provided insight in your more rececnt posts.

The part in italics was supposed to explain this, but I notice I used the wrong terminology. Paranoid means always guilty result, yes? I meant insane, where you get opposite results. If MBL turned up town and TCS would have a innocent result on someone and we lynch TCS and he was a cop, he must be insane, which means that the person with the innocent result was in fact scum.
Of course he could be paranoid as well (only guilty results) but that seems cruel in a mini game.

You didn't answer my question regarding BM's LyLo switch.

[Battle Mage]

...getting a little sick of being insulted here, especially when i seem to be the only person paying attention here...

[BillyTwilight]

BM's reactions to dahen's vote and his flipflopping on the LyLO issue is enough to

unaccuse, Accuse: BattleMage

.

[chaotic_diablo]

You didn't answer my question regarding BM's LyLo switch

I believe you asked three questions, one of which was BS.

Hmm, OK. Do you know him well?

Would he only suggest no-lynch as town, you say.

Now he's saying that he thinks we aren't at LyLo and that he will vote. What is your interpretation of that, CD?

I don't believe I said anything like that.
I did answer if I "knew him well," to an extent that I've played in several games with him. Your final question is simply ridiculous.

BM's Lylo is a direct result of him questioning the number of scum in the game and questioning the mod. If switching his decision makes him scummy based on his reasoning, then I'll have to disagree. There would be no need to question the number of scum if you're scum to begin with. Then there would be no need to question the mod and the set-up if you were scum to begin with. If you're scum to begin with, then you already know the majority of the answers.

It could be that BM is scum trying to look innocent. However, that is WIFOM and I'm not going to try looking into that unless there is a good reason to. Your turn. Answer BM's question.

Dahen, if its all the same, i'd like YOU to comment on some of these things yourself, rather than asking others to feed you the answers...

...getting a little sick of being insulted here, especially when i seem to be the only person paying attention here...

Sorry.

[BillyTwilight]

I am going to be out of town for the next week, with no internet connection (going camping in the great wild, yay!). I'd prefer not to be replaced. This will be my last absence till probably Christmas. Posting this in all of my games.

[SSF352]

Hi, MoS has asked me to post in the games he's modding to let you know he's having problems accessing the site. However, he will be available on AIM (Jhawk) for questions/concerns.

[BillyTwilight]

Nothing to see here.....


Where'd everybody go?

[Skruffs]

Vote Count

Battle Mage - (Ectomancer, dahen, BillyTwilight)

Haschel Cedricson - (chaotic_diablo)
Ectomancer - (al_kohaulec)
chaotic_diablo - (Haschel Cedricson)
Not Voting - (Battle Mage, DragonsofSummer )

[dahen]

I'm travelling (in Mississippi) with limited connectivity. This game will have to wait.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thanks to Skruffs for posting a VC. I'm in my first week of classes, so it's hectic. PM me if you need any prods. Also, Skruffs has agreed to replace Ancalagon in the two games he was still alive in, so thanks for that as well. I will be sending his role pm sometime today.

[al_kohaulec]

Unaccuse, Accuse Ectomancer

and I don't even remember why...