Mini 474 - Bergamo Bump-Off (Game Over!)

[death_omen]

Thanks for answering VH, now I think we need to think about our next step, more carefully before we proceed to todays lynch, i still find malchonn suspicious, he has been lurking the whole game which is very uncommon, he rarely says anything until he is asked..

normally scum in mafia games tend to sit back and let things unfold and go with the majority of the town and i think this guy falls into that category.

***************************************************************

4th Vote Count of Day 2

Nelly632 - 2 (vampyrusddg, Muerrto)
Malchonn - 1 (death_omen)

Not Voting:

- 6 (Hjallti, Malchonn, Nelly632, Plessiez, SeraphicMirth, somestrangeflea, VampaneseHunter)

6 to Lynch

[SeraphicMirth]

405:

D_O is the cop, but i'm not 100% sure i'm about that...I mean it is alot to go think of just to be cleared of being scum. But he if was scum then, I think someone already said it, why wouldn't he just say that someone is innocent?

428:

Ok I'd like to point out my supicions towards D_O. I know I have said that I thought he wasn't scum but the more he posts the more suspicious I become

FoS: D_O

After I post (445):

I think that people who keep bringing up d_o are scummy.

and d_O asks VH to answer their own question

449:

Well I don't really find you suspicious myself.

Question for you VH:
What exactly changed here?
Can you explain why your opinion changed between 428 and 449? When d_o posted between 428 and 449, he made you question him even more. If you were suspicious of him at 428, his 433/your 434 should have made you more suspicious, no? So, what changed your mind and convinced you he wasn't suspicious anymore?


I hate to harp on one player over and over but when they constantly show contradictions and flip flop over and over on the "suspicious player of the moment" (see next paragraph), I just have to think scum. It just sticks out to me again and again.

So I have to, again,

vote VampanezeHunter

I'm not trying to take attention away from Malchonn, I haven't gone back through and read all his posts, it's just that VH sticks out so much to me right now.

[SeraphicMirth]

over and over on the "suspicious player of the moment" (see next paragraph),

My bad, there is no "see next paragraph" that relates..I was going to go in on how much they flip-flopped on Khel, I have examples that were already pointed out, but then I decided to let VH answer my question instead of throwing all that out there on them.

[VampanezeHunter]

Well it was a mixture of 2 things. I was going to try and get a reaction from someone if I pressured them, in this case D_O, and also the post by vampddg kind of destroyed the point in even trying the method before as the evidence I was based on was turned into nothing by Vamp's post about how long the Mafia have to communicate!

[Plessiez]

I don't think d_o is suspicious and one of the main reasons why is that we haven't had a counterclaim, nor have we had anyone heavily building up a case against d_o (i.e. if they were cop but didn't want to claim but knew d_o was lying).

Um. I really don't like the fact that you say this after having said (in #350):

I would still like to solve this without a real cop rc'ing (if there is one that isn't d_o)..I think we can do it. I dunno. I always prefer to get as far as we can without investigative r.c.ing

So ... you first tell any real cop you'd rather they didn't counter omen's claim, but then when nobody does counter you use that to try to support omen's claim? That is, you discourage any hypothetical "real cop" from claiming, then try to use the lack of any such claim to argue no such real cop exists. More than slightly scummy, in my view.

And it would be

very

unwise for the real cop (if omen is lying and there is one) to start heavily building up a case against death_omen without claiming. Either they should claim today, which apparently they aren't going to do, or they should sit quietly until tomorrow, and try to get another investigation result before they counter. (But if they exist, they should definitely counter tomorrow).

Meanwhile, I'm still working on that reread, but it looks like it might not get finished until tomorrow now. Sorry about that.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

VampaneseHunter PM'd me; he's going to be absent from the game for a few days and will be back Wednesday.

[VampanezeHunter]

Yea sorry again!

[SeraphicMirth]

Well, Pless, I think I disagree. I mean, I suppose if they heavily started to counter d_o and then they came under fire, they would have to end up claiming..I didn't really think about how it would play out, but I still stand by my word that I don't like claims too early in the game and I like to get as far as possible without them. I mean, if a cop gets mafia early then they should reveal that info however they feel (it could possibly be done without an RC, too, though)..or to protect a mislynch if they know innocents, etc. but other than that..*shrug* I don't have any defense for that.


As far as how you think my 2 quotes conflict, I don't think so highly of myself to assume that the "real cop" (as I say in 350) would follow my every word and do what I say..lol So, that's why I said "hasn't rc'd or built up a case" - in case there was one and they would do either thing, and I would really hope they weren't just sitting around saying absolutely nothing.
And, just to be extra clear, the reason I was saying "in case there is a real cop" earlier on was because there were people still suspicious of D_O, though I wasn't as much. At the RC, I thought it was possible it was fake but as time went on, for the reasons I cited, I think that d_o is what he says.

So, I am trying to get people kind off of the whole point BECAUSE I think D_O is a cop and discussing his suspiciousness is scummy and diverts from finding real scum.
Fin.

[SeraphicMirth]

Well it was a mixture of 2 things. I was going to try and get a reaction from someone if I pressured them, in this case D_O, and also the post by vampddg kind of destroyed the point in even trying the method before as the evidence I was based on was turned into nothing by Vamp's post about how long the Mafia have to communicate!

Ok, well when I read through that page ..what you're saying here makes sense to me as an answer to my question.

So I'll

unvote VampanezeHunter

[Muerrto]

Well, Pless, I think I disagree.

Gotta agree with Seraph here. I see you both as town but I don't see at all where those 2 quotes contradict. In one Seraph is saying the cop shouldn't come forward and straight claim. In the other she's saying since no one's built a case yet his claim seems solid.

That's exactly the response I was looking for with my question. You can make a case against someone without straight claiming. If someone claimed cop now they should be stoned. We already lost DO(if he's a cop), losing another power role either to a block or a kill would be a waste. This is a mini, we could have another cop role be it the inventor(Sauce) or a Jack of all trades. In fact we DID have another cop most likely and if he was able to hand off the invention he made we might have another.

A counter-claim in a mini game means nothing. A CASE against DO would mean something because if I were a cop I'd have checked his claim last night.

[SeraphicMirth]

Hey all, I'm going to be out until Sunday afternoon/evening. Going to a RL mafia games and drinkin' party at a friend's house for the weekend! ::insert nerd smiley here::

[VampanezeHunter]

So effectively we've lost 2 cops? I didn't actually know what an inventor was...
@Serpah Have a good time!

[death_omen]

Just a clarification a inventor is not just a cop it can be a real variety of things, depending on how the mod decides on how to use his role, check it out here:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Inventor

Just thought you would need a clarification before we moved on..

[VampanezeHunter]

Thanks! So we've lost 2 quite important roles then? If you include D_O being blocked then that's 3.

[Plessiez]

You can make a case against someone without straight claiming. If someone claimed cop now they should be stoned. We already lost DO(if he's a cop), losing another power role either to a block or a kill would be a waste.

Well, first off, if anybody counter-claimed omen, we'd know omen isn't a cop. So losing two power roles obviously isn't an option. (At least ... I don't think that there's any real chance of there being two cops in a mini. If anybody can point to a game where there has been, obviously I'm wrong and you can ignore the rest of this post ).

As for the rest ... maybe this is just a difference in styles (on the site I normally play, any real cop would definitely have counter-claimed by now ... here, that seems not be the case). However.

Suppose that omen is scum and there is a real cop somewhere (not a cop-like role - I agree that such a player shouldn't counter-claim, as both might be telling the truth - but an actual cop). That real cop can either claim today, make a big case against omen today, or make no case and claim tomorrow.

Now .. if he claims today, we end up lynching one or the other. If we lynch right, we get scum, but maybe (and maybe not) the cop is killed tonight (it's unlikely he'd be blocked, since if omen is lying there's no evidence at all for an evil roleblocker, and that seems a pretty rare role in a mini). If we lynch wrong, we're down to lynch or lose tomorrow

but

we know that the other must be scum. We also know who the other cop investigated.

Compare that with what would happen if the real cop just made a case against omen. I feel it highly

unlikely

that any such case would result in omen being lynched - too many people have said they don't suspect him now (indeed, SeraphicMirth has said that simply discussing his suspiciousness is scummy!). But ... okay, maybe, best case, omen gets lynched. More likely, somebody else is lynched. In either case, both you (Muerrto) and SM seem pretty sure that such a case would most likely be made by the real cop. So guess who dies tonight?

Without

any chance to reveal their investigation results? Of course: the real cop.

So...

Claim today

Best case ...

* lynch scum
* real cop might be killed
* we have investigation results

Worst case ...

* real cop lynched
* lynch or lose tomorrow (but we know who to lynch to get scum)

Just make a case

Best case ...

* Lynch scum
* Real cop might be killed

Worst case ...

* Lynch or lose tomorrow (we

don't

know who to lynch to get scum)

I don't see how the latter plan is

any better

for the town than the former. At all.

[Muerrto]

Well, first off, if anybody counter-claimed omen, we'd know omen isn't a cop. So losing two power roles obviously isn't an option. (At least ... I don't think that there's any real chance of there being two cops in a mini. If anybody can point to a game where there has been, obviously I'm wrong and you can ignore the rest of this post ).

True. But on top of that I'd assume ANY kind of cop role would have checked out DO's story last night anyway so we'd have a case being brought against him, if not a full claim. So we can be pretty sure that:

A) DO's a cop

B) We have no other cop.


Unless of course the real cop didn't think of that and checked someone else. Or unless Sauce was our 'cop'. Knowing the mod from our other site I know that we play with alot of crazy roles because they're more fun than the plain ones. I could see the game having an inventor and a jack of all trades and no plain cop/doc. That's not to say I don't believe DO's claim but it's possible we don't have a counter claim AND he's not a cop. You seem to be leaving out that possibility so I thought I'd mention it.

And with Khel being a Vig(we love lots of night kills in our games) so far the game fits the MO. A plain cop in our games is weird.

That said(watch me contradict myself) I doubt our ONLY cop role is an inventor. That'd suck. So I still think DO's claim is straight unless someone forgot to check him last night. Which would just be a horribly bad play if there's another cop.

So for now we have no choice but to take him at his word.


Participation has dropped off sharply recently tho and I've yet to see the answer to my questions from some of you. Also another question:

Who do you suspect most right now and why? Would you be willing to lynch them at this point for your suspiscions? Are they lurking/posting?

There we go. Discuss.

[vampyrusddg]

So I still think DO's claim is straight unless someone forgot to check him last night. Which would just be a horribly bad play if there's another cop.

I disagree with this Muerrto, I wouldn't have investigated him last night, and would have been glad of it, especialy with 2 other power roles offed in the night, I would assume he's scum and leave it on a back burner to see if there was something linking him with other players and investigate them, trying to cath as much scum as possible with one swoop.

But it is time to get off this subject we've chewed it over and I don't think we're going to change each others minds here and there doesn't seem to be a majority to lynch DO unless there is a counter claim, which with the amount of time passing is less and less likely.

So to answer your question, I'll take i one step further and go for my hall of scum:

Nelly632
SeraphicMirth
SSF or VH

apart from Nelly I've gone with my gut on the rest, something in my mind is seperating SM from SSF and VH to put her in 2nd, not sure exactly what but I will have a re-read and see what I find

[Muerrto]

So I still think DO's claim is straight unless someone forgot to check him last night. Which would just be a horribly bad play if there's another cop.

I disagree with this Muerrto, I wouldn't have investigated him last night, and would have been glad of it, especialy with 2 other power roles offed in the night, I would assume he's scum and leave it on a back burner to see if there was something linking him with other players and investigate them, trying to cath as much scum as possible with one swoop.

Interesting take. Not saying I agree but interesting. I'd rather investigate DO so I know if I can trust him or not, as evidenced by my night0 investigation of you in our last game. I like knowing whether I can take someone's arguments at face value.

So to answer your question, I'll take i one step further and go for my hall of scum:

Nelly632
SeraphicMirth
SSF or VH

Again interesting. I still say I think Seraph and Pless are the most town players so far but that could just be scum acting very town(WIFOM). As for Nelly I'm still ready to lynch him and mantain my vote on him. His explanation for the hammer was bad. If it was a mistake it was unfortunately a damning one IMO.

[vampyrusddg]

Interesting take. Not saying I agree but interesting. I'd rather investigate DO so I know if I can trust him or not, as evidenced by my night0 investigation of you in our last game. I like knowing whether I can take someone's arguments at face value.

Maybe, but the big difference here is I had no RC at that point, you were just going for someone you'd like to know was town or could be a hard scum to catch with a one-shot ability

So to answer your question, I'll take i one step further and go for my hall of scum:

Nelly632
SeraphicMirth
SSF or VH

Again interesting. I still say I think Seraph and Pless are the most town players so far but that could just be scum acting very town(WIFOM). As for Nelly I'm still ready to lynch him and mantain my vote on him. His explanation for the hammer was bad. If it was a mistake it was unfortunately a damning one IMO.

Agreed, my votes unlikely to budge here but I'm nowhere near ready to end the day. We need some more discussion here.

[Muerrto]

Interesting take. Not saying I agree but interesting. I'd rather investigate DO so I know if I can trust him or not, as evidenced by my night0 investigation of you in our last game. I like knowing whether I can take someone's arguments at face value.

Maybe, but the big difference here is I had no RC at that point, you were just going for someone you'd like to know was town or could be a hard scum to catch with a one-shot ability

Well the 1-shot only matters on the timing of the RC but yeah, it was just pick a person to trust or not so it's a little different. Still, if I had an investigative role I'd have checked DO night 1 no question. I'd wanna know if we could trust his investigations and if not, then I'd have to rely solely on my own and somehow convince everyone else of that without RC'ing and getting myself killed.

So are you saying that you believe DO's claim because it's simply believable since you don't expect a cop to come forward? Or you don't believe it because even if there is another cop he wouldn't come forward?

[vampyrusddg]

No I believe it because he came up with the fail, I see no reason for scum to do that when they've got all the tools to have the town eating out of the hand and calling them saviour, bypassing the NK to make it look like the doc's got his back. The scum blocking instead of NKing someone who's a likely target for protection is far more likely.

[Hjallti]

No I believe it because he came up with the fail, I see no reason for scum to do that (...)

I see your point here but you can WIFOM that away of course. It might buy scum a day more somehow, but then again simpler scenarios would give the same or better return.

[vampyrusddg]

No I believe it because he came up with the fail, I see no reason for scum to do that (...)

I see your point here but you can WIFOM that away of course. It might buy scum a day more somehow, but then again simpler scenarios would give the same or better return.

No I find this is way too loaded to be proper WIFOM even though the logic is circular, as I mentioned before the time constraints on the scum communicating without asking for an extension to let us know their planning something complex, and the amount of extra lies it gives them to slip up over, weigh that against having the shining star of the town as your double agent and a simple plan...

[SeraphicMirth]

blllahhhh ..i don't know where to go with this day.

Nelly - who is at the top of your suspicious list at this point?

Malchonn - who is at the top of your list?

[Nelly632]

I honestly dont really know I mean if I was forced to come up with a list I could but it would be based on loose stuff...