Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[Mert]

Vote: Sefer

[Mert]

A'ight STOP...

Wagontime!

Unvote, Vote: xyzzy

[Mert]

Xyzzy, if you had to pick

one

person on your wagon as scum right now, who do you think you'd pick based on the little we've seen?

[Mert]

I'd pick you. Asking me to answer a question like that with no information fells like a trap.

Or a discussion starter, whatever's your poison.

[Mert]

Glad I'm on the Xyzzy wagon right now, yes indeedy I am.

[Mert]

Hmm. I guess since the vote's on me, I might be a bit biased here, but what's the point of voting for someone (me) when the person who placed the reaction-seeking vote has already kind of said they've given it up?

Because the reaction is still useful, regardless. If someone votes to get information and they don't get it immediately and give up on it, it doesn't suddenly negate the benefits of having that information, it just means the person seeking it has decided to look elsewhere for the time being.

[Mert]

Xyzzy, they get the information from asking questions and putting pressure on people for reactions, etc. I don't really understand your post, to be honest. Who is giving up?

[Mert]

So, MBL, I hear you liek pulsating mudkips?

[Mert]

I already stated that my reason for suspecting Crub was in the manner and timing of his vote for Xyzzy. To assert that I have not given any reason is an outright lie. If you wanted explanation of that reasoning, you could have just asked for it.

I'm asking for it. A number of people have been on and off the Xyzzywagon today, so I could say "I don't like the way they joined it" to pretty much anybody who has voted for him today. Please explain what it is about Crub's entrance that puts him above others.

Also, you FoS him for his manner of jumping on the wagon (which you're going to explain in more depth soon) but also do a lot of "not much to go on" type stuff. Then later, with little input from Crub, somehow this escalates to you having a case against him from previous posts. When I did a full reread a moment ago, this didn't occur to me, but when reading you in isolation it begins to look like you thought Crub could go fairly easily and came up with a case for why he's scummy afterward.

[Mert]

Minor FoS: Mert

for paying no attention whatsoever. Seriously. What the hell?

Your post implied there was more to it than what you'd posted, that's all. Sorry for misunderstanding.

I favour a Xyzzy lynch to a Glork lynch today, irrespective of the Doc claim. It's a shame deadline's so soon - I'd like for all players to check in to see if we're going to get a counter-claim but it seems unlikely. I also think it's unlikely that Glorkscum would claim to be Doc in such an open setup where he would almost certainly be counter-claimed if lying. If Glork

is

lying, I think it's more likely he's a townie trying to suck up a night kill than scum trying to survive Day One.

So yeah, Glork is definitely not the play today.

[Mert]

Incidentally, I *ALSO* thought that Mert's question could have been a trap. It was basically asking Xyzzy to OMGUS somebody, which does not sit well with me.

Read his posts in isolation up until I posted that - they're all jokey posts with no content that do nothing to progress the game. My reason for asking for his reaction was not so that he would OMGUS somebody (I didn't ask him to vote anyway...) but so that we could get

some

information from him that we could use.

I know this is conjecture and a dash of WIFOM, but the protown reaction to being ridiculously bandwagonned is to be a little defensive, point out and put pressure on those whose timing on the wagon seem a little off to probe for more information on those you find most suspicious on your wagon. In my experience, scum do one of two things when being massively wagonned: they either get overdefensive and start giving out tells or they try to keep as quiet as possible / avoid responding to being wagonned to avoid the above. I felt that Xyzzy was clearly in the latter category, so asked the question to try and draw more information.

I'd like to think you give me more credit than to try and trick somebody into OMGUSing any one of five people on a wagon and then following this up with "OMGUS vote? Die scum!"

Unless you count trying to get someone who's posting but with no content and flying under the radar / plain-sight lurking to contribute something useful to the game as a trap, then I'm sorry to inform you that there was no trap with that post.

[Mert]

Interesting.

Firstly, at the top end of yesterday I really didn't see anything in the Goatwagon. In fact, I made a mental note to come back to it - I'm always naturally suspicious of people that try and form a counter-wagon just before deadline, especially if the original lynchee turns out to be scum. However, reading AE's posts from the early part of today, I can certainly see the potential behind a connection between Goat and Xyz.

What intrigues me about this is the fact that AE seemed to post yesterday against Goat almost with a knowledge of how things would look today, thus validating her statements from yesterday. I'm not entirely sure what to think of it. In a normal 3-Mafia Mini game, I'd probably be thinking {AE, Xyz, Goat} as the scum group about now, but that clearly cannot be the case in this game and if AE and Goat are the Ice Mafia then her actions from yesterday make no sense if Xyzzy is not part of the puzzle. Something about this doesn't quite add up, but I'm going to revisit it when we have more information (Goat's alignment would help immensely, of course, but I'll think more on this issue in lieu of that).

Next thing is that while I have a slight suspicion in Glork's still being alive, I do not put anywhere near the amount of stock into it being a scumtell as some in this game do. For a start, the lack of cross-kills and no-kill when the two scum groups target the same player lead to far more Prisoner's Dilemma-type shenanigans than there would normally be in a two-scumgroup game. As has been pointed out already, there is as much possibility that both groups avoided attempting to kill him for fear of the other doing so. With the lack of a counter-claim and the pool of potential candidates to do so diminishing rapidly, I see no reason why Glork should be the play for today unless something spectacular happens. If Glork truly is the Doctor then it goes without saying that he could turn the tide for the town, especially in endgame. I don't see why people are speculating on lynching him today, when we have no solid reason to doubt his claim and a number of setup-related reasons that could explain his being alive more than would be the case in a more standard game.

[Mert]

Well the latter part of my second paragraph was basically saying that I'm finding it quite hard to neatly categorise people in the way you request without WIFOMing myself to death, but I'll give it a go.

I think Vendagoat is a strong candidate for the other Fire, due to his interaction with Xyzzy in the latter half of yesterday. However, if we were to lynch him and he turned up Ice for some reason, I believe that would pretty much preclude AE from being the other Ice.

I put some stock in the idea that Fire may have missed their kill last night, however, meaning they could have found the other Fire. This has been discussed already and, if you do not believe you protected successfully last night (not asking your opinion on this at the moment, btw) then looking at the votes/FoSes from the early part of today then one of the following is a strong possibility for Fire voting for their missed kill:

LmL

and

Glork

-

unlikely

AE

and

CTD

-

possible

AE

and

Goat

-

possibly both scum, but factions more likely to be reversed

Crub

and

AE

-

quite possible

Goat

and

AE

-

quite possible

Goat

and

Glork

-

unlikely

mneme

and

LmL

-

possible, but unlikely

mneme

and

Goat

-

unlikely

AE comes up on the list as Ice more than I'd like, but they can't all be scum on the Fire side, so I'm not sure if the frequency tells us anything particularly. Howver, if one of the people paired with AE above turns up Fire then I think AE wouldn't be an unreasonable play the following day.

Of course, if you protected correctly then this could all be moot.

Of the people that have seemed most suspicious of you and your claim so far, I think LmL is the most likely scum. Something about MBL strikes me as protown, though it is as much gut as anything.

Sorry for that being a bit stream-of-consciousnessy, but that's basically my thoughts on the game... as you can see from the fact it's a bit jumbled, I'm having trouble trying to work out what's going on.

I hate to say it, but it'd be easier to work out if there wasn't a doctor in this game in some ways, as we could basically bring it down to no-kill or attempted cross-kill. The doctor's presence adds yet another variable, which is part of what's confusing me. Now as I say, I'm not asking for you to divulge

anything

about your action last night and what you believe the outcome to have been, but I hope that this information you have will be able to feed into this game in the coming days. This is another reason why I do not believe you should be the play for the forseeable future.

[Mert]

Why wouldn't you like AE on the list as Ice?

Because they can't

all

be Fire, meaning some of them are red herrings, adding an additional layer of complexity in trying to unravel it all. It's little more than a turn of phrase, to be honest Glork.

[Mert]

Mert, what exactly were you trying to imply with your post 251, particularly

What intrigues me about this is the fact that AE seemed to post yesterday against Goat almost with a knowledge of how things would look today, thus validating her statements from yesterday.

All I did was look at the game thread and see what looked like partner interactions. I never predicted that Venda would go all illogical and OMGUS-y, just that if XYZ was scum, Venda seemed a likely partner. I really don't understand why you'd even bother saying something like this, given the game set-up, which 100% preculdes anyone from knowing more than one scum. If you have something bad to say about me, base it in reality.

I am not saying you were bussing him (which, as you rightly point out, would require three scum in a group) but what I was getting at is that you seemed to know he wasn't the same alignment as you. Your case against him yesterday toward deadline was fairly weak (note: I actually think the arguments you've presented today are strong, but not those of yesterday) and, reading between the lines slightly, I at least saw the possibility that, given Xyzzy was likely to be the lynch that you dedicated your effort into subtly setting up someone for Day Two. While everyone was busy squabbling over Glork's claim and whether Xyzzy was town, there you were in the background putting pressure on Goat to do or say something you could use today.

Also, according to your next post, if Vendagoat turns up Fire, that makes me a good candidate for being Ice. Why is that? Because I suspect him and he's OMGUSing me? I get that you're piggybacking LmL's idea that I was the target and didn't die and thus am mafia, but...do you

see

how many assumptions that is based on, and how many facts it ignores?

Looking at Goat's OMGUS-y nature (which you yourself have pointed out), I think it's entirely possible that, if Fire, he would have targetted you last night. You were clearly on his case at the end of the day, his scumbuddy was dead and he needed to remove the threat to him. So if he

does

turn out to be Fire, I would give fairly good odds to you being either Ice or Glork's target. No, it's not conclusive but it should also not be dismissed as simply "piggybacking LmL's idea".

I think Goat is the play for today. I think eliminating the assumption that he is Fire will be a good first step toward either validating or disproving my theory.

So yes, it is based on assumptions - everything in Mafia is to an extent. I don't see what facts it ignores at all, however - could you list them for me?

[Mert]

Also, while I'd hope it was clear by now, for the avoidance of doubt I will state that I am not the Doc.

[Mert]

Vote: Vendagoatse

[Mert]

Oh and just for fun, Not doc.

Of

course

you're not the doc because your win condition involves killing all the protown players

[Mert]

It's more when one jokes in lieu of any content that it's a tell, rather than just generally being a funny guy. If you put your jokes and what have you amongst some pretty serious analysis and gameplay then you'll have no problem at all.

[Mert]

Okay yes, given. Joking about how scummy you are is scumtelltastic.

[Mert]

vote: AE

There is, of course, a chance that Glork protected her. But odds are with us here, especially since there was a time for him to respond to speculation claiming he didn't protect her.

Yes, I agree. She could have been protected or she could have just been fingered by Goatse as some kind of revenge thing for being on his wagon and "going by feeling", but I'm not keen to end up with such a WIFOM situation come endgame. I think AE is clearly the play for today. But we shouldn't lynch her until we've had some more content out of today, so I'll hold off on my vote for now - but unless something drastic happens, I'll be favouring an AE lynch today.

vote: AE

I think the chances of Glork protecting AE are low enough that this might be worth a shot. If we are wrong, however, then we'll be at 7, then 6 after the night. Therefore, if we do lynch wrong and I'm the one offed at night, don't forget to do a no lynch to bring it down to 5 players.

Minor FoS: Stewie

. That's a very rapid second vote. While agree with what you're saying in your post, I don't see any reason to just speed through today without discussion. I'll revisit this if AE turns up scum as a potential attempt to speed bus her.

This also means that it was in Ice's best interest to kill Glork, as if he had lived, he would have claimed his heal, and for all they know, it very well could have been me, as I am not one of them. They needed the uncertainty, because it was fairly obvious that I'd receive a lot of attention today.

Something about this is strange... it was in Ice's best interest to lynch Glork regardless - knowing both Fire were dead, they knew that a) Glork was not scum and b) their kill couldn't miss. They would have killed the claimed Doc anyway. The quoted part of your post seems like a lot of thought has gone into why Glork would be the best choice, yet it misses out the obvious conclusion. As I say, hard to put my finger on it, but something about the way this reads is strange.

I am pro-town, so I will not quietly let myself be lynched. But I also don't really want to spend all day defending myself.

Try to look at this objectively - if you were in our position and this happened to another player, would you really want them to live to endgame? If you

are

town then it's a real bummer for you, but as protown you have to recognise that your living to endgame will make things harder as we'll end up WIFOMing ourselves in circles. Do you agree that, from an objective standpoint, you're the obvious play today?

I think we should analyze the likelihood that she was protected and move forward from there.

I agree. I'm going to reread and see if there's anything between Glork and AE yesterday that implies he might have protected her.

Until it became very clear who the Fire mafia was, there was good reason not to find out Glork protection -- it helped the (fire) mafia as much as it did us if not more.

Mneme, you were on the Vendawagon the whole of yesterday, right from the very beginning. You

had

to have, at least to an extent, believed we were about to lynch the other Fire. Given that knowledge, it would have been completely obvious that with no roadblocks to lynching Glork that he would have died. While there was a reason not to find out who Glork protected, I disagree with your statement that it would have helped Fire as much if not more, given that you were actively trying to lynch the second Fire.

Either you believed Goatse was Fire and therefore should have been more open to having Glork claim before night, or you weren't sure of his alignment at all, in which case why didn't you say anything to that effect when he approached lynch?

FoS: Mneme

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

I'll reread Day One and answer this properly, but on gut I think I possibly would have protected LmL, though it's hard to say as Glork's claim and his reaction to it made me a little wary of him. Taking that aside though (assuming Glork wouldn't claim doc if I was), I think LmL's actions were, in the main, aimed at progressing the game and finding scum. That's not to say I consider him 100% protown because I don't, but given the mechanics of the game he probably would have been useful in either finding the second Fire at the very least.

But this is a hard question to ask because Glork

did

claim Doc and LmL

did

persue him more than I would have liked. Trying to assume that information wasn't there and put myself in a role I didn't have is complicated to say the least!

I've got some ideas on who might be AE's partner (and who might not be), but those can wait for if I'm still alive tomorrow.

So you have other suspects you'd like to look into but you don't want to reveal them... why? So you can have another round of kills to make sure it jives with the town consensus? If you genuinely fear dying tonight then why are you unwilling to share your thoughts today and instead rush toward a quicklynch today?

[Mert]

I understand AE being a

necessary lynch

at some point... but I do not see her being a necessary lynch

today.

Gah, this post is WIFOMing me to death. If AE is scum, I don't believe LmL would put himself in a position to so openly protect her but since she obviously has to die before endgame this could be scum saving an easy mislynch for later.

FoS: LmL

. Of course, it could be a tactic of being so blatantly linked to AE that people actually

won't

believe he would be so blatant... an odd gambit, but not impossible.

Something about this post worries me generally - if AE is scum then there's the possible protection thing and if she is town then there's the possibly saving an easy mislynch for later thing. Both are weird.

As I say, WIFOMing me to death...

[Mert]

In a way I feel I've said all I can say on the issue of AE. I think it's suicide for the town to allow her to live until endgame because the WIFOM on whether she was protected or is scum could be the death of us.

That said, I feel I do have a duty to re-evaluate other candidates for scum. I'll reread now and get something to you as soon as I can (it's 1am here so apologies if it's not tonight).

[Mert]

I'm completely torn. I've tried my best to read AE without taking into account Venda's "revelation" yesterday and I have a feeling that if it were not for that post I would consider her to be acting in a fairly protown way - her posts are full of content and opinions and, despite the pressure she's been under all day, she's still scumhunting and putting out ideas rather than just hiding defending herself and trying to keep herself alive. I get strong protown vibes from a number of her more recent posts.

Unfortunately, I've read Glork over and over and I can't see enough in there to judge whether I think he protected AE or not. He was so tight-lipped, I can't actually get a feel for anyone I believe he protected. I can cross off a few I think he probably

didn't

protect (LmL, me, probably MBL) but beyond that I don't know, which is extremely unfortunate. Knowing Glork however, I have a feeling he put something in at least one of his posts that will subtly indicate his intentions. This is complete conjecture, but it could be that this breadcrumb was picked up by somebody who is not sharing it due to being scum. That said, he might not have done, but it's the reason I've been running myself in circles trying to get all I can from Glork's posts yesterday.

The problem is, despite my feeling that AE has shown a number of town-tells, I am

terrified

of having her alive during LyLo... I think I'd die under the weight of WIFOM. We're a good group and we've done well so far but LyLo isn't actually that far away and we now know we have no chance of a doc protect. Having AE survive to endgame just puts me in the sort of position I'd hate to be in. If AE

does

end up in endgame with me, I'll be pushing for a long day to explore a large number of options.

I'm interested by a specific part of mneme's play today - earlier I asked him about his reluctance to share his thoughts on who AE's partner might be as it's best left for tomorrow. More recently, he's said that if AE is scum then "any further analsys helps the scum more than it helps the town". Again, this intrigues me. There are no further power roles to accidentally out so what position does this put the scum in where their choice of kill is changed by more discussion and analysis? All things being equal, we're all as likely to die as the next as the scum will know we're all townies anyway. It will likely come down to a combination of a move that will confuse the town and the elimination of a threat, perceived or actual, to the town.

Now nmeme hints at having theories that he is not sharing on this very issue which seems like an attempt to draw a nightkill more than anything. Try as I might, I can't see what benefit keeping this information to yourself in the hope of not dying overnight has to the town. If you

are

killed then it's lost forever. You won't exactly be drawing a kill away from a power role, so can you explain why you feel that analysis and sharing of thoughts you have is a bad idea today? Because, frankly, I don't understand it at all right now.

On balance, I think I have to vote for AE. I've thought it through and I feel that circumstances mean that whatever her alignment, having her alive at endgame is detrimental to the town in one way or another. I personally believe that Venda did target her last night, so she's either scum or Glork's target, in my opinion. Yes, we might be losing a townie, but of all the townies we have she'd be the one I consider best to lynch. If she's scum then her posts today in defense of herself will give us tons of information to work with tomorrow too.

Vote: Autumn Evenings

.

Mod

, would I be correct in assuming that three votes will lynch at deadline if no clear majority is reached?

[Mert]

I was prodded, it's true. I've had a very hectic few days which has now come to an end. I'm about to head off to work but I am off work until Tuesday after today so expect a lot more content from me very soon. Sorry for being MIA for a few days though

[Mert]

I've reread and I'm almost certain that the other Ice exists in {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie being the least likely, in my opinion.

I don't buy Crub's argument that if Stewie was distancing then it was more subtle than if Mneme was and so he's more likely scum... that seems to be creeping almost toward "too townie" in some ways - he looked less like he might be blatantly bussing AE than Mneme did, so he's more likely scum? Don't buy it.

Mneme's connections yesterday and his "I think I know who's scum, but I'll tell you tomorrow" thing still ping my scumdar, but I must admit that his recent posts about Crub seem to add up and strike me as likely. I still think Mneme's a good candidate for a lynch, but right now I'm preferring a Crub lynch over a Mneme one.

As for no lynching, I think there may be some benefit in doing so today but it could also wait until tomorrow - it's certainly not essential to end the day with even numbers today. I agree that we should put pressure on those we believe are scum today and no-lynch just before deadline if we're undecided by that point. I don't think we should simply no-lynch for the sake of it though - if we can reach a consensus on who we find most scummy today then we should probably lynch them while we have the room to do so.

[Mert]

I agree, this game seems to have stalled and I believe that is, in part, due to a lack of fresh information. Since I believe him to be most likely scum,

Vote: Crub

.

[Mert]

To be honest, when you said you "REALLY" suspected me, I did expect slightly more than what you've presented. Nonetheless, I understand that you've had some RL issues and address the points you have presented thus far:

I'm incredibly concerned about Mert's intentions with this post... he references the "too townie" fallacy of Crub / AE / Stewie Fiasco. I am less apt to think, in this game, with scum being as careful as they are, that someone who outwardly defended AE is scum.

Fair point, but his reasoning that Stewie is more likely to be scum because he looked "more subtle" (ie. less obviously scummy) as a

de facto

reason to suspect Stewie is still flawed and I still don't like it. I agree that scum were likely to have bussed AE yesterday, given the seeming inevitability of her death, but no reasons were posted that showed

why

Stewie was likely to have been bussing - the argument was that if he

was

doing it, he did it more subtley. Something just doesn't feel right about it and the logic remains incomplete.

We have two lynches, and I say we use them to the best of our advantage.

Are you saying you are against the previously-discussed idea of no-lynching today? Personally I have yet to have made my mind up on this issue but I'd appreciate clarification on whether that is what your post is getting at or not.

Mert also tries to plant the idea of Mneme today, which is in my mind, a damning paragraph. It really seems to me that Mert is setting up two mislynches here..and is saying that "once we mislynch Crub, since Mneme made such a nice case on him, we can just lynch Mneme and have a scum win party!"

I don't really understand this point - I have already stated that I believe the scum exists within {Crub, Mneme, Stewie} with Stewie as my outside bet of the three. What, therefore, is wrong with presenting my reasons for that belief on those who I find most scummy? Your post seems to imply that mentioning more than one suspicion at a time is "damning", yet I was still, at that point, exploring my views on various people and I presented the ideas on those two as they topped my LoS.

Most recently.. stalled sue to fresh information? Poo. This reeks of scum hopping onto an easy bandwagon to save his skin.

It was nothing more than putting my money where my mouth is - after considering my top two, I had decided that Crub sits atop Mneme and that my vote would help to confirm my position.


I find it interesting that Mneme's recent vote uses the same "subtle, therefore scummier" argument that Crub used previously. They can't both be scum, but the argument seems as flawed coming from Mneme as it does Crub.

Lee, does your point about me "hopping onto an easy bandwagon" apply to Mneme's most recent vote also? If not, what is the difference between them?

[Mert]

Crub, do you

actually

suspect me of being scum or are you really just voting to save your own back? Because I am distinctly of the opinion that attempting to merely ensure your own survival rather than playing to lynch those you find scummiest is not a protown move.

Confirm Vote: Crub

.

[Mert]

Is anyone even here? Whether you vote for me or not, please weigh in with your opinions so that we have information we can use tomorrow.

[Mert]

Stupid non-British timezones

[Mert]

Great fun, great game and great job modding. Seriously enjoyed myself.

Vendagoat put me in a very tough spot after he claimed AE to be his target. That paired with the sheet awesomeness of the town made it a very tough game to win, but the town played absolutely superbly. Sincere congratulations on a well-deserved win.

[Mert]

LOL good job town.

Someone mentioned me maybe giving up scum partners or attempting to ruin a perfectly good game. Nope never crossed my mind. One of the reasons I hammered myself is specifically so that you guys wouldn't know for sure what i did. I've read that post in the general discussion about scum people giving up their partners and ruining games. No thanks no ban for me.

But your ultimate objective is

always

your win condition. By self-hammering when you were the last Fire around, you took deliberate action that made it impossible to fulfil your win condition. If you had self-hammered and outed AE but your partner was still alive I would have hailed it as an incredible scum move. But since you did it when in the process of making yourself lose on purpose there was nothing your faction could gain from it, which makes it basically asshattery.

Now it's not going to get you banned, but you should

always

try to achieve your win condition as that's fundamentally what drives this game in the first place. The only explanation I can find for what you did was that you were mad at AE for going after you throughout the day and so you decided to take her down with you, despite throwing the game for both you and your partner in the process.