Mafia 68: Ork - Game over!


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Post Post #100 (ISO) » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:53 pm

Post by ShadowLurker »

The !adventure Vote Count


VROOM VROOM

Guardian
(4) - Urzassedatives, Sefer, CoolBot, Gorrad
CoolBot
(3) - Guardian, Kinetic, IH
Kinetic
(1) - Mastermind of Sin
Mert
(1) - scotmany12

VROOM VROOM

Not Voting
(7) - Pie_is_good, Khelvaster, Mert, Haut Boy, Yosarian2, spectrumvoid, curiouskarmadog

VROOM VROOM

With 16 alive, it is 9 to lynch!
:sadtorch Ken Hoang, A.D/Fuzzie, Cameron Ferris, Taj Johnson-George, Annie Duke, Patti Blagojevich, Maria/Tiffany :sadtorch
:torch Tammy/Victor, Dan/Jordan
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Post Post #101 (ISO) » Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:53 pm

Post by Gorrad »

Ok, I still don't like the idea of a mass claim, but Guardian, maybe you can clear this up for me. If the mafia lynched the priest or the inspector, what's to stop the Godfather from going into that spot? They would be one of the 'confirmed' positions y'all are so keen on, and could 'inspect' the goons, putting them in the clear too. I'm not quite willing to risk the game on that 1/6 chance, especially given what IH has been saying. I agree that CoolBot is quite possibly scum, but I doubt that he and Guardian are in it together at this point. So, I'm going to keep my vote where it is, but keep a
FoS: CoolBot
up. If Guardian isn't, CoolBot is.

-Gorrad
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Post Post #102 (ISO) » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:22 pm

Post by Kinetic »

At this point I really don't want to talk about the mass claim, well, at all. I've reached my decision, and much more talk than what has already been said can only help the mafia at this point. I would like everyone to either say they
Support
or
Oppose
Mass claim before we have much more discussion.

I suggest everyone who is pro-town read the discussion before this because all the reasons why this is good for us are in there.

If after everyone, or at least most of us have voted, and there is a large group against, then we'll have no choice but to explain further (which will help scum).

If it will make everyone feel better about me, I can claim right now and show this is a very powerful town strategy.
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Post Post #103 (ISO) » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:24 pm

Post by Guardian »

Gorrad wrote:Ok, I still don't like the idea of a mass claim, but Guardian, maybe you can clear this up for me. If the mafia lynched the priest or the inspector, what's to stop the Godfather from going into that spot?
I don't want to explain this fully, but if that is all the mafia do against the mass claim, we are in a very, very good position.
Gorrad wrote:They would be one of the 'confirmed' positions y'all are so keen on, and could 'inspect' the goons, putting them in the clear too. I'm not quite willing to risk the game on that 1/6 chance, especially given what IH has been saying.
Yeah, this is where I don't want to explain this fully for the mafia, but it would not be extremely pro-mafia -- also the mafia had only a 1/7 chance of getting one of these roles, the cop of which is much, much more important.
Gorrad wrote:I agree that CoolBot is quite possibly scum, but I doubt that he and Guardian are in it together at this point. So, I'm going to keep my vote where it is, but keep a
FoS: CoolBot
up. If Guardian isn't, CoolBot is.

-Gorrad
Erm, Firstly, I'm not scum, and I've seen no reasonable case on me. Secondly, why do YOU think CoolBot is scum?
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Post Post #104 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:21 am

Post by Gorrad »

I think you're scum because you're really pushing what to me seems like a very anti-town strategy. If you're mafia, and a power role was killed, that would be a good explanation for why you're going so strongly for this.

For CoolBot, I posted 101 late and didn't mean to put that so strongly. Just scratch the last sentence, it is the product of a tired mind. I suspect CoolBot mostly for his attitude. I'm all for aggressive, but he really seems to be acting mean about it to my eyes. I know it's not a definite scumtell, but I think it's enough to warrant a FoS.

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Post Post #105 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:21 am

Post by Gorrad »

oh, and Kinetic, right now I
Oppose
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Post Post #106 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:50 am

Post by Sefer »

While I currently support the mass claim, I'd like to wait until everyone has a chance to weigh in before any decision is made. Pie_is_good, Khelvaster, Mert, Haut Boy, Yosarian2, and spectrumvoid haven't posted yet, and this isn't something to decide on with 1/3 of the town gone.
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Post Post #107 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:11 am

Post by Guardian »

Two things I want to say, for the record:

1) Gorrad, I'm not trying to be mean. I'm trying to be emphatic. There is a difference -- I want to convince people, not terrorize them, at this point. You haven't seen mean from me :twisted:.
2) I want to let people know, for the record, I will be both extremely surprised at and disappointed in the town if we don't eventually mass claim (we will eventually mass claim, I'm thinking. It is just so good for this setup, especially with the Devil dead), and I
will
find those who do not support mass claiming scummy.

Mass claim does not guarantee a win, but it is absolutely a good play for the town, and those opposing mass claim repeatedly and antagonistically are scummy. Coolbot, CKD, and Gorrad I get "unsure town" vibes from, but seriously, mass claim is good and supporting it early is town-like. I would not be terribly shocked if MoS
is
scum and is supporting mass claim to look good because of how greatly pro-town and anti-scum mass claim is.

So, especially suspect are those who are taking a "wait and see" stance. There is no reason you need to wait for others to arrive for you to make your decision -- everyone who is like "well, I like it, maybe, but I want to wait before I say anything meaningful" it looks to me like you are waiting to see what your scum buddies think, or if the town sways away from mass claim and you can hop onto that mentality.
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Post Post #108 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:59 am

Post by Gorrad »

Yeah, Guardian, you're not being mean, just scummy to me :P.
Guardian wrote:I would not be terribly shocked if MoS
is
scum and is supporting mass claim to look good because of how greatly pro-town and anti-scum mass claim is.
I don't like this. If it's so great a strategy, why would a scum support it? Sure it would make them seem pro-town, but if it catches them, what's the point? This gives distancing vibes to me. Also, I reread and it seems I was a bit unclear. Guardian, I am by no means CERTAIN you're scum, however, this seems like the position a scum would be setting up, especially if inspector or priest was killed. Also, I think that we should be allowed to point out holes in plans such as this. CoolBot is right that the scum are probably not idiots. If there's a hole, one of them will likely find it and exploit it, and I'd rather we fix the problem than have that happen.

Mod
Does the mafia know who the lyncher is? Just wondering, as the role is listed as a Spork.
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Post Post #109 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:44 am

Post by ShadowLurker »

Guys could you liek, raed teh reol PMs? The mafia does not know who the lyncher is.
:sadtorch Ken Hoang, A.D/Fuzzie, Cameron Ferris, Taj Johnson-George, Annie Duke, Patti Blagojevich, Maria/Tiffany :sadtorch
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Post Post #110 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 11:51 am

Post by Guardian »

Gorrad wrote:Yeah, Guardian, you're not being mean, just scummy to me :P.
You haven't really explained WHY, but OK...
Gorrad wrote:
Guardian wrote:I would not be terribly shocked if MoS
is
scum and is supporting mass claim to look good because of how greatly pro-town and anti-scum mass claim is.
I don't like this. If it's so great a strategy, why would a scum support it?
To look pro-town. Think about why scum "bus" their teammates and lynch them -- scum lynch other scum to look townlike because that is what townies do. Similarly, because someone supports this strategy doesn't mean that they are pro-town, they are just doing the pro-town thing.
Gorrad wrote:Sure it would make them seem pro-town, but if it catches them, what's the point?
It doesn't catch them. It gives us a better chance of catching them. Just like busing hurts scum (because they lose a partner) and helps scum by looking townlike by supporting the bus, supporting this strategy hurts scum but makes them look townlike when they support it.

That being said, I do not think MoS is scum at this time. I am just saying I would not be terribly shocked if he was -- this was in response to someone saying that the strategy would somehow become bad if MoS or I were scum -- it would not become a bad strategy, it just would mean that scum supported a good pro-town strategy.
Gorrad wrote:This gives distancing vibes to me. Also, I reread and it seems I was a bit unclear.
Distancing from who? MoS? That is silly. What is unclear?
Gorrad wrote:Guardian, I am by no means CERTAIN you're scum, however, this seems like the position a scum would be setting up, especially if inspector or priest was killed.
If the inspector was killed, that is really unlucky. Even so, it still is better for us us to mass claim.

If the scum killed a townie or lyncher, would they try and set this up? Hell no. We don't know what they killed -- we WILL know what they kill in the future if we mass claim... which really is the whole point.

Gorrad wrote:Also, I think that we should be allowed to point out holes in plans such as this. CoolBot is right that the scum are probably not idiots. If there's a hole, one of them will likely find it and exploit it, and I'd rather we fix the problem than have that happen.
The only potential "holes" scum have are good ONLY IF THEY COMMUNICATE AND WORK TOGETHER. There are multiple strategies scum could use for the mass claim, and if they are all on the same page will they be more successful.

So telling them exactly how they should work together in the mass claim is idiotic. Arguing that we
should
be telling them how to work together in the mass claim is even more idiotic.

Even if the scum were able to communicate and work together and find these "holes", though, mass claim STILL is better for the town, just less good. So, let's not help the scum out, K?


Gorrad, I feel you are just arguing because you got it in your head that mass claim is bad. Stop being difficult for being difficult's sake, mass claim is the play here...
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Post Post #111 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:24 pm

Post by CoolBot »

Guardian wrote:I feel you are just arguing because you got it in your head that mass claim is bad. Stop being difficult for being difficult's sake, mass claim is the play here...
This is the attitude that's so grating. There are legitimate objections being brought up in regards to the mass claim. Yet it's proponents, instead of addressing the objections, are characterizing the objectors as stubborn idiots or scum sympathizers. If they were really so sure about their plan, they'd be able to convince us instead of just trying to railroad us.

In particular, I haven't seen anyone address why we shouldn't care if scum counter claim a power role. Without being informed of roles after deaths, we'd have to lynch bot the be sure, right?
Guardian wrote:If the inspector was killed, that is really unlucky. Even so, it still is better for us us to mass claim.
How so? We'd never lynch him if we follow your plan.
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Post Post #112 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:32 pm

Post by Kinetic »

I'm an idiot.

I figured it out. There are two ways that people may not go with mass claim:

One, they are scum.

Two, they are a power role and they don't want to be outed.

I understand the second reason, because that is how I felt. However I realized that you cannot be afraid to have the mafia NK you. If it helps the town in the long run, then it helps everyone on your team. You can win even if you are dead...

As such, I'm going to claim in about 30 minutes. I think we need someone to lead the way to show the town this is NOT a bad thing. In addition I can even prove that I am not scum claiming the role they killed.
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Post Post #113 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:33 pm

Post by CoolBot »

So, you're
not
going to try to answer those questions I just posed?
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Post Post #114 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:44 pm

Post by Guardian »

CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:I feel you are just arguing because you got it in your head that mass claim is bad. Stop being difficult for being difficult's sake, mass claim is the play here...
This is the attitude that's so grating. There are legitimate objections being brought up in regards to the mass claim.
I fell your pain, but we have very strong legitimate objections to discussion your (legitimate?) objections.
CoolBot wrote:Yet it's proponents, instead of addressing the objections, are characterizing the objectors as stubborn idiots or scum sympathizers. If they were really so sure about their plan, they'd be able to convince us instead of just trying to railroad us.
I am not at all interested in talking scum strategy here.
CoolBot wrote:In particular, I haven't seen anyone address why we shouldn't care if scum counter claim a power role. Without being informed of roles after deaths, we'd have to lynch bot the be sure, right?
We are informed with lynches and vig kills. So if a scum counter claims a power role, if we lynch one of them, we know who was telling the truth.

If the vig vigges one of them, we know who was telling the truth.

Lastly, even if the scum NK one of them, we know that either the scum NKed one of their own, or the remaining counter claimer was lying.
CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:If the inspector was killed, that is really unlucky. Even so, it still is better for us us to mass claim.
How so? We'd never lynch him if we follow your plan.
The inspector has to provide us with investigation results every day. If his investigation results are ever proven wrong, we know he is scum. There are several reasons that he cannot provide wrong answers that I can go into if you and others absolutely insist that I must.
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Post Post #115 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:05 pm

Post by Kinetic »

Also, remember both Priest and Inspector results are not binary. Certain roles come up differently from both and mafia don't know exactly what everyone is.
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Post Post #116 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:06 pm

Post by CoolBot »

Guardian wrote:I am not at all interested in talking scum strategy here.
But you're certainly willing to let possible loopholes remain open.
Guardian wrote:We are informed with lynches and vig kills. So if a scum counter claims a power role, if we lynch one of them, we know who was telling the truth.
With regards to lynches, I don't see anything in the rules post that says this is the case. Why do you think that's true?
Guradian wrote: If his investigation results are ever proven wrong, we know he is scum.
And scum will obligingly give us wrong results? How can we assume this will happen when the Miller is the only result they don't know ahead of time?
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Post Post #117 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:18 pm

Post by Kinetic »

Guradian wrote: If his investigation results are ever proven wrong, we know he is scum.
And scum will obligingly give us wrong results? How can we assume this will happen when the Miller is the only result they don't know ahead of time?[/quote]
Kinetic wrote:Also, remember both Priest and Inspector results are not binary. Certain roles come up differently from both and mafia don't know exactly what everyone is.
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Post Post #118 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:26 pm

Post by Guardian »

CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:I am not at all interested in talking scum strategy here.
But you're certainly willing to let possible loopholes remain open.
There are no **** loopholes. There are good and bad scum strategies. That is all. What you and others are suggesting is like suggesting that everyone not claim what their result is in Dethy, because the scum can claim in a good way.
CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:We are informed with lynches and vig kills. So if a scum counter claims a power role, if we lynch one of them, we know who was telling the truth.
With regards to lynches, I don't see anything in the rules post that says this is the case. Why do you think that's true?
Because the roles doesn't say that it is NOT the case. I assume that only scum NKs are corpse ripping, as that.. um... makes sense, and is standard.

Why do you think that this is not true?
CoolBot wrote:
Guradian wrote: If his investigation results are ever proven wrong, we know he is scum.
And scum will obligingly give us wrong results? How can we assume this will happen when the Miller is the only result they don't know ahead of time?
If the scum killed the cop, claim cop, and then give us all correct results (as they would pretty much have to do) then that is fine -- even though the cop is scum and we have to deal with lynching him later, we *still* get a real investigation result every day.

And you realize you are worrying about a 1/14 chance, right?...
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Post Post #119 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:28 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

seems to me that all claim conversation is moot with 4+ players not posting at all....

Mod think we need some prods
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Post Post #120 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:09 pm

Post by ShadowLurker »

Mod disagrees as per the rules. The minimum of time that must elapse from now before the mod automatically gives out prods is five days. Please request specific prods.
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Post Post #121 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:12 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

ShadowLurker wrote:
Mod disagrees as per the rules. The minimum of time that must elapse from now before the mod automatically gives out prods is five days. Please request specific prods.
ok will wait 3 more days then will ask for prods..

figured they just do not know the game is on
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Post Post #122 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:43 pm

Post by Sefer »

Mod, request prod on Pie_is_good, Khelvaster, Mert, Haut Boy, Yosarian2, and spectrumvoid
. I suspect the long night 0 has left some of these players unaware that the game has started.
I think that's everyone who hasn't posted, if there's someone I missed make another prod request.

(curiouskarmadog, we don't need to wait for prods as long as we request them on players who haven't posted in 24 hours. 5 days is just for automatic prods)
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Post Post #123 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:52 pm

Post by CoolBot »

Guardian wrote:Because the roles doesn't say that it is NOT the case. I assume that only scum NKs are corpse ripping, as that.. um... makes sense, and is standard.

Why do you think that this is not true?
Standard? The standard is all roles are given when they die. We already know the game is different from the standard, and assuming the exact way it's different without any evidence seems dangerous to me. And IME, it's usually an all or nothing thing anyway.
Guardian wrote:If the scum killed the cop, claim cop, and then give us all correct results (as they would pretty much have to do) then that is fine -- even though the cop is scum and we have to deal with lynching him later, we *still* get a real investigation result every day.
The issue isn't the quality of the results - at least not directly. If I understand your plan correctly, we mechanically lynch the claimed townies one by one. At what point to we decide to lynch the claimed power roles that may or may not be scum? If we wait until all the townies are dead, that leaves a maximum of five players (assuming doc claims town). If one of them are scum, how do we decide? What if the Inspector and Priest are pointing at each other?

And don't say that's a long time away and we'll address it when and if we get there. If scum happened to hit the Investigator or Priest, we're pretty much guaranteed to end up there and we should discuss it before sending us down that tract.
Guardian wrote:And you realize you are worrying about a 1/14 chance, right?...
But a real one nonetheless.
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Post Post #124 (ISO) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:00 pm

Post by Guardian »

CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:Because the roles doesn't say that it is NOT the case. I assume that only scum NKs are corpse ripping, as that.. um... makes sense, and is standard.

Why do you think that this is not true?
Standard? The standard is all roles are given when they die. We already know the game is different from the standard, and assuming the exact way it's different without any evidence seems dangerous to me. And IME, it's usually an all or nothing thing anyway.
It is a mafia corpse ripping game. This means the mafia rip the corpses with their NK, but not otherwise.
mod
, clarify please.

But IME it is obvious that lynched roles will be revealed.
CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:If the scum killed the cop, claim cop, and then give us all correct results (as they would pretty much have to do) then that is fine -- even though the cop is scum and we have to deal with lynching him later, we *still* get a real investigation result every day.
The issue isn't the quality of the results - at least not directly. If I understand your plan correctly, we mechanically lynch the claimed townies one by one.
We will still scum hunt -- just we will know for certain that certain players are definitely town. Knowing for certain that ~1/3 of the players are town = very good thing.
CoolBot wrote:At what point to we decide to lynch the claimed power roles that may or may not be scum?
When the priest/cops reports back that they lied :). This assumes mafia counterclaim at all, which they may or may not. I am not going to say which I think is better, and you shouldn't either.
CoolBot wrote:If we wait until all the townies are dead, that leaves a maximum of five players (assuming doc claims town). If one of them are scum, how do we decide? What if the Inspector and Priest are pointing at each other?
Hmm? This sounds like paranoia/reemphasis -- I don't get what further discussion you are trying to spark here.
CoolBot wrote:And don't say that's a long time away and we'll address it when and if we get there. If scum happened to hit the Investigator or Priest, we're pretty much guaranteed to end up there and we should discuss it before sending us down that tract.
If that did happen, it is not as much of a problem as you think it is if they get the inspector. If they get the cop, and the cop never fails to give us a correct result, we will eliminate 2 or 3 scum and be at a point where we think "HMM, maybe the cop is scum".
CoolBot wrote:
Guardian wrote:And you realize you are worrying about a 1/14 chance, right?...
But a real one nonetheless.
Real, but have you ever heard of action state outcome logic? There is a 13/14 chance of not hitting the cop. 1/14 chance of hitting the cop. So, 13/14 times, we benefit greatly, and 1/14 we benefit only a little.

We still benefit no matter what, and it is statistically a much, much better play to claim. Like, say 13/14 we guarantee win, 1/14 we guarantee loss. Which would you pick? It is not nearly as extreme as that, but cop is the only role scum could have killed that would be significantly bad for us, and the chances of that are so bad for scum we should claim assuming that it probably did not happen. Even if it did, somehow, the game is salvageable, but it probably didn't happen.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]

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