New York 185: Freshwater Frenzy!

Xtoxm · Post Post #2976 (isolation #0) » Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:10 am

Good day gentlemen!

I have a novel to read.

In the meantime, would anyone be so kind to remind me why I haven't logged in for 4 years?

Xtoxm · Post Post #3091 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 20, 2015 7:46 pm

In post 2996, Egg wrote:Oh shit Xtoxm is back?!?!? That's fucking awesome. Although he won't recognize me on this name... Has it really been 4 years?

Almost to the day. Now i'm curious who you are. But i'm glad my return is

fucking awesome

.

--

Haven't actually found lala scummy from what i've seen so far. Do have a lot more reading to do. Not sure why she's voting me.

Early suspicion is Delta, as all he's done is lurked heavily and push for a lala policy lynch, even on day 4.

Boonskiies. I appreciate that you are pseudo-confirmed town, but you are not a cop. Don't expect us to value your reads over our own.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3107 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:54 pm

Could someone summarise the public info on the hoods, how many are there and who's in each one?

Xtoxm · Post Post #3109 (isolation #3) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 10:21 pm

Thanks..According to the wiki:

If you are one of more than four Neighbors, it is nearly certain that at least one representative of every anti-town faction is in the Neighborhood.

So House/Egg is still a good possibility.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3122 (isolation #4) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:34 am

The wiki is irrelevant anyway - it is based on a chance roll.

Alright, I did not know that. Consider it dismissed. I was looking neighbors up on the wiki cause I had no idea what they were before I replaced into this game.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3127 (isolation #5) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:01 am

Alright...4 years worth of dust, so let's hope the 'ol scumdar is still in order. This is what i've got so far.

Boonskiies
dragonspawn

- Not really put any effort reading these two as the claim is too idiotic to consider as scum.

House

- Strong town read. Nature of the roleclaim looks very town motivated. Unlike what others have said, I think the multiple JOATs as town make much setup sense. Notice how all the claimed abilities are different to those of the dead town JOAT. His play reads town too, for example defense of lala of day one. There is more, too.

lalaladucks

- I feel a whole lot of frustration in her play, particularly at being tunneled on by confirmed town-Boon, and I find it difficult seeing this as a scum gambit, at least to this level. Disheartening then, that she in turn is tunneled on my own slot.

RadiantCowbells

- Erratic play, accurate scumhunting. Town lean.

FA_Q2

- Town lean.

Prolapsed Brain

Some town pings. #1822 #2705 #2822, #2986, would be examples.

Egg

- Mmm, not sure.

Silverwolf

- Playing too safe. Difficult to read at all, which I take as a slight scumtell.

DeltaWave

- Has done nothing pro-town all game from what I can see.

Peculiar that so many different people have expression suspicion of Taly. I specifically chose this game to replace into to because Taly gave me strong town vibes (apply the usual caveats that I could be wifoming...). Why is that people found Taly scummy?

Xtoxm · Post Post #3144 (isolation #6) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:55 am

Don't get too hung up on wagon analysis. There doesn't

have

to be a representative of every faction on every wagon. Varsoon died N1, removing a third of red mafias wagon-appearing ability. Delta has not appeared on

any

lynch wagon. If he's lurker-scum, that leaves little representative ability for the faction. On that note, i'm frustrated that i'm the only one calling out Delta. It's Day 5, he's been allowed to lurk too far into this game. If he makes it to endgame you'll have nothing historical to judge him on.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3165 (isolation #7) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:19 pm

In post 3146, Boonskiies wrote:
In post 3144, Xtoxm wrote:Don't get too hung up on wagon analysis. There doesn't
have
to be a representative of every faction on every wagon. Varsoon died N1, removing a third of red mafias wagon-appearing ability. Delta has not appeared on
any
lynch wagon. If he's lurker-scum, that leaves little representative ability for the faction. On that note, i'm frustrated that i'm the only one calling out Delta. It's Day 5, he's been allowed to lurk too far into this game. If he makes it to endgame you'll have nothing historical to judge him on.

I mean, it's already been decided we're lynching from the Titus wagon. You said you are lean scum on Silver. Push for it.

From the Titus wagon, she would be my pick, yes. But I in no hurry to push for wagons at this time, we don't need another short day. House needs to receive his prod and subsequent replacement, he has already been replaced elsewhere on the site. Delta needs to make at least one post. I still have large sections of the thread to catch up on.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3248 (isolation #8) » Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:36 am

I had a look through Drixx, and concluded his death was more likely down to the reds having some sort of investigate result on him from earlier in the game, and suspected him of town PR, than based on his reads. The only thing he had done recently is push for a lala lynch. And there are plenty of other people doing that anyway, who are far more townie than he was.

Xtoxm, can you explain your FA town read? You seem to briefly explain most of your reads but there's just nothing on this one.

There wasn't a good way to sum up my opinion on FA. Or on Egg. They are linked, somewhat. The town lean on FA started with #3120 assertion of Egg being town, who at the time was giving me gut scum vibes. I've noticed that FA has been reluctant to add his vote to the major wagons, which I take as a slight towntell, because it's similar to my own town play. I had a look through NY180 in which FA was town, as I had some concerns that FA was semi-lurking, and concluded that both his post rate at post style is very similar in this game, as it was there. Now, this isn't a towntell, but it dismissed the notion that lurking could be a scumtell for him, which was the point of the exercise. In all, town lean.

With regards to Egg, I was getting gut scum vibes when I replaced in, but upon delving deeper into his ISO, I couldn't find anything substantial to back it up, so I ended up saying not sure. I had a look at one of Egg's scum games and found some minor differences. Largely neutral read now, but PoE has a tendency of moving neutral reads into scum territory.

Egg - I'd still like you to provide your old account name so that I can apply my historical meta to you.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3493 (isolation #9) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:21 am

Most of the last 10 pages is fluff.

Pisskop appears to contradicted claims made by House. He is fast undoing my town read on the slot.

I'd like an immediate and complete roleclaim from Pisskop, including all night actions and targets.

Delta is drifting through another day unchallenged in his mega-lurk.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3499 (isolation #10) » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:48 am

In post 703, House wrote:Oh screw it.

I'm a JoAT

1x Gunsmith
1x Tracker
1x Bodyguard

And I want dragonspawn killified so I can work with my neighbors on where to use my abilities.

In post 1826, House wrote:It's quite likely the missing kill was me.

My 4th ability was commuter, which I used last night.

In post 2063, House wrote:Would you pricks stop roleblocking me?

I tried to gunsmith Kitz.

In post 3439, pisskop wrote:I copped Kitz.

In post 3450, pisskop wrote:Or maybe Ill commute instead.

In post 3452, pisskop wrote:I also have a 1shot friendly neighbor

You have been caught in a

roleclaim LIE

.

VOTE: Pisskop

Xtoxm · Post Post #3604 (isolation #11) » Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:39 am

With 2 kills missing on Night 1, and no dead or claimed protective roles in the game, this claim is initially believable.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3607 (isolation #12) » Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:58 am

If Boon can commute, then you should jail dragon tonight. This will force the mafia to kill someone who is still a suspect. Keeping those two in the game is more important that anything else.

Xtoxm · Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:38 am

Lynching an uncountered protective role in 2:9 with 2 confirmed townies is a daft play. Town will be significantly weakened if SW flips town.

Boon and Dragon, you are the confirmed townies here. You should be leading. Stop following other people around like headless chickens. There's a good chance PK is mafia. He's already lining up lynches.

Town is in a strong position, but not so strong that it can afford to throw mislynches away. Process of elimination isn't necessarily going to win for town.

This game has become painful to watch.

Xtoxm · Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:12 am

#3698 is a good case, but there's still the question of the missing NKs. Suggesting that all of them happened to be fails on the commuting Boon does not seem reasonable. One maybe, not three.

Demanding that she jail Dragon will ensure his continued survival, too.

An FA counterwagon does not enthuse me.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3722 (isolation #15) » Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:42 am

Fair enough.

Xtoxm · Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:02 pm

Good day!

I have something for you guys.

Egg is a 1-Shot Bulletproof Godfather/Neighbor.

SW is clearly mafia for the way she hammered lala without allowing her to claim. It was self preservationist scum move.

So I believe we have an Egg-SW mafia team.

/game

I can full claim if needed.

Xtoxm · Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:14 pm

Also

VOTE: Egg

Xtoxm · Post Post #3847 (isolation #18) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:19 am

I'm a JOAT. My role is bloody powerful, I must say. If you'd managed to turn the lynch on me yesterday like you wanted, you might have won. I saw plenty of potential for an implosion in this town.

Abilities: Role cop, vanilla cop, neighboriser, roleblock.

N1 neighborise House (fail)
N2 no action
N3 no action
N4 no action
N5 Role cop Egg

Also, I do have a modifier to my role.

Why did I target you? You were the only scumread I felt would not be possible to push a lynch on. Everyone in the game was townreading you. Night is for dealing with the scum you can't get lynched. Wasn't concerned about SW as she would never live to endgame. Same with Delta. Everyone else was a town read.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3849 (isolation #19) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:25 am

That's obvious now, but going into last night he still could have been mafia (from my position).

Xtoxm · Post Post #3851 (isolation #20) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:37 am

My heart was never really in that, was more of a policy vote for lying about his role and the abusive posts. And I didn't want to say too much yesterday in case I attracted a roleblock/jail onto myself. I assume SW really is a JK.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3855 (isolation #21) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:45 am

Your commitment is admirable.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3865 (isolation #22) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 7:45 am

In post 3863, Prolapsed Brain wrote:I would rather lynch Xtoxic than Egg. 3 JOATs? Fuck me. With a fire hydrant. Ain't no way.

Xtoxic today, SW tomorrow..... yeah, that sounds good.

VOTE: Xtoxm

Because I might have randomly decided to throw the game.

But this is the town that scumread lala so i'm not surprised.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3870 (isolation #23) » Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:22 am

Egg then SW.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3879 (isolation #24) » Tue Jul 07, 2015 4:28 am

What a long night.

VOTE: SW

5 post lynch leggo.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3883 (isolation #25) » Tue Jul 07, 2015 4:49 am

Guys come on she even confessed yesterday.

I RB'd wolf last night, obviously.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3947 (isolation #26) » Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:27 am

I've been suspecting Boon is only a 1-shot commuter or similar, and exaggerating. Full commuter would certainly be powerful.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3954 (isolation #27) » Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:33 am

I don't think the setup is townsided. Scum tripped over each other a whole lot. 3 scum lynches in the first 4 days will always leave town in a powerful position no matter what the setup is, and if hadn't got the Egg result (or he had been an ambiguous role - he is the only one in the game rolecop incriminates, right?) then you may well have won - There's some notably weak performances that town won in spite of here.

Xtoxm · Post Post #3958 (isolation #28) » Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:41 am

But there was also 3 killing factions, and a dearth of protective roles. Town could easily have found themselves low on power by day 4 in different circumstances. The 3rd JOAT to claim was always going to be suspect - I only got away with it because of the guilty result.

Xtoxm · Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:43 am

Full reveal and night actions please?

Xtoxm · Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:54 am

When so many people expressed suspicion of Taly I started lurking because I really didn't want to be forced into a claim. I was sitting on a super powerful role that still had 3 good abilities unused. I had to be survivalist. This explains why Taly felt that way too.

Xtoxm · Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:50 am

Really, this game was going no where for red mafs after Egg's lynch. Outright scumclaiming is something to avoid sure, but even without that, me and Boon would have been after wolf's lynch today, and i'm pretty sure from there we'd have got the support for it. Varsoon and Egg are instinctively frustrated but i'm sure they know inside that a lone SW win was more than a long shot.

SW clearly put a lot more effort than most into this game if you take a glance at ISOs.