Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[ryan]

Welcome =Confused=!!!!!! Enjoy the re-read 8)

Votecount:
ryan (1): Paradoxombie

With 7 alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

[=Confused=]

Thanks.

About to start my read though. Bear with me...

[vollkan]

Welcome. With any luck this game will begin to move again.

[Lawrencelot]

d3sisted will replace TrustGossip. Thank you.

Deadline: August 23

I think this will be enough for the replacements to read the thread.

[d3sisted]

Here and accounted for.

Just so everyone is aware, this is my first game, so don't be surprised if some of the things I say come off as newbie.

[d3sisted]

Little Italy 436
Well first off, I'd like to mention that the course of events in this game were... unfortunate, to understate it.

At this point in time, there is only one person on my list of suspicion, and that is Miztef.

I first examined the N2 vote count, which ended with Miztef, Volkan, and Paradoxombie voting for the deadman. Looking back at the vote count on N1, I notice

that Miztef voted for Hurrikaty here as well; even more peculiarly,

he hammered.

Let's go back a bit further and examine some more facts.

I agree with vollkan here. Ryan, why did you vote ABR when you acknowledged a day 2 lynch as better?

I think ryan is a candidate for lynching today. That slip up, with the addition of albert's points, are really building up a case. Although, most of this can

be accounted for by inexperience. Paradox has made mistakes too, but I can see alot of this is inexperience as well.

Right now, I'm actually leaning towards lynching a lurker. Snichkin had that early mess-up, darhken just plain hasen't posted much, and Stallingchamp hasn't

posted too much either. I'm going to go with

unvote vote: Snichkin

. His early screw up and then dissapearing act bugs me the most of all the

lurkers.

Early in the D1 discussions, Miztef votes PoisonIvy for lurking. Though that in itself seemed like a scummy move, the vote further seemed somewhat of a

bandwagon vote, as momentum for the lurker's lynch was already building.

So, does that mean the plan is to lynch hurrikaty?

I'm willing to vote her today if she doesn't post within the next 24 hours. I am inclined to agree with death and ryan in this situation, that katy's lurking

has become quite the fiasco.

Leading up to the end of D1, Miztef mentions Hurritkaty a lot. He seems to be trying to rally support for Hurri's lynch, as evident from the bolded line

above. His motives seem to have been this: since noone was willing to hammer Hurrikaty (for fear of appearing scummy,) he tries to speed things up by

convincing someone, anyone to bring Hurri to L-1; he would then proceed to do the dirty deed himself (hammering, which he does). Why couldn't a fellow mafia

do it? Simple: they both already had votes on Hurrikaty (I'll go more into this later).

After he votes PI, he gives some good reasoning as to who is scum, but never takes his vote off PI. (Who I just realized, is me. Lol.)
Some 10 or so pages later, he SUDDENLY decides to "Unvote, vote Hurrikaty" for the hammer.
This was extremely intriguing to me. He was practically screaming Scum. I decided to dig further.

N1 had ended. I thought for sure someone must've spotted this, and pointed it out. But despite this blatant scummy act, Miztef manages to come off clean! In

the tumult succeeding the doctor's and cop's death, we seem to completely neglect what he's done as we busy ourselves with measuring the repercussions of the

Night's events.

It's possible the vig killed albert because he/she was against albert right from the start and believed he was lieing. As stated eariler in the thread, the

safest way to kill albert is at night, and maybe the vig felt this was his/her chance.

I personally don't see why an SK would want to kill Albert, maybe an SK would kill DogMom though, and the mafia killed albert.

Though no blame has been placed on him yet, he is not going to take any chances; he blames the Vig. In essence, he has just shifted suspicion and guilt from

him onto a Pro-Town, as shown by the quote above. Very deceivingly done, I must add. Others commend him for his 'logic', and his name is cleared without a

doubt.

Right now, I have no major suspects, only some minorly scummy ones."

He goes on to name 3 players he is "fairly suspicious" of, hence contradicting himself -

in same post.

I don't feel bad about lynching hurrikaty. She was being unresponsive and causing great confusion with her "I'm lurking, sorry, but I'll post soon" posts. I

feel it was a good choice made by the town. That's why it's hard to decide on suspects in this case, scum could have quite easily slipped into the bandwagon

or not been on the katy lynch at all.

This post is sheer brilliance. Not only does he acknowledges his hammer/lynch (for staying silent about his mistake would have appeared scummy once someone

pointed it out), he attempts to

justify

his action and remains adamant that his choice was unerring.

Heads turned to paradoxombie, who has taken the limelight on the stage of suspicion. Miztef, confident he is clear of all suspicion, boldly tries to stir up

another storm, in hopes for another mis-lynch. He jumps onto a paradoxombie bandwagon [albeit one without actual votes] in an endeavour to blend in with the

other FoS's on paradoxombie.

We should start bandwagoning/voting with intent to lynch people we find scummy and get some more information.I've already tried paradox, but he's seems to

busy to defend himself at this time anyway. I'll try up to try deathsauce or VD next. If not them, then Ryan or Trust are fine with me as well. "

Huh. Doesn't get any more scummy than this. Seems to me he's anxious to get this next kill, and even suggests that at a crucial time as this, we more or less

randomly vote/bandwagon.

Then, of course, there was the Hidden Unvote fiasco, which I will not even begin to go into.

Though I am confident enough in my indictment to throw a vote on him, I will refrain from doing so; at LyLo, not only would it be stupid, it would make

everyone [everyone who's town, anyway] hate me.

FoS: Miztef

for the time being.
Oh, and sorry if the quotes and text formattings are flawed, I've never done this before.

[d3sisted]

Bah. I use notepad to draft my posts, and I copied it straight in. That post came out looking horrible.

[vollkan]

Welcome, and well done for making a post which actually brought some new stuff up.

Some things I noticed.

His motives seem to have been this: since noone was willing to hammer Hurrikaty (for fear of appearing scummy,) he tries to speed things up by convincing someone, anyone to bring Hurri to L-1; he would then proceed to do the dirty deed himself (hammering, which he does).

Why couldn't a fellow mafia do it? Simple: they both already had votes on Hurrikaty (I'll go more into this later).

The whole thing with Miz baiting so that he could hammer is a little weak to me. The case against HK was so strong that I doubt whether Miz's comments would have been particularly influential. If Miz was scum and wanted HK dead, it would be just as advantageous for Miz to vote HK to L-1 and then have a townie hammer.

Certainly, I think Miz's encouragement is a little off and I agree with you there, but I don't think it is wholly evident that this is exactly what Miz did.

I reread the exact specifics of HK's lynch after reading what you said and something else relevant came to light.

I'm gonna give her one last chance, if her post feels scummy, I have no problem changing my vote to her

Then, in #426 Ryan votes HK without that other chance which he had made his vote conditional upon. It is possible Ryan missed ABR in #424 where ABR pointed out that Para didn't unvote and that Ryan was hammering rapidly, but I doubt he would have made such a blatant scum move. Even so, it is interesting that Ryan changed without HK's post AND that Ryan and Miz were the last two on the wagon and that both of their votes were "odd".

Something else. D3sisted, you said you consciously did not address Miz's "unvote" but I want to know what your take on it is; whether you are taking the DS line of it being scummy or whether you are taking the other view that it is just a stupid thing without a necessarily scummy motivation.

It's interesting that this brings us full circle back to the Ryan/Miztef pairing from earlier on. On D2, I suggested the possibility that Ryan's vote on Miz was for distancing in order to cast doubt on Ryan/Miztef. d3sisted's post prompted me to do a reread, specifically in the area of Ryan/Miztef collaboration.

Funny then that today Miz has cast an FoS on Ryan, but he says he really is not going to vote unless necessary. In fact, their little debate today would seem further evidence of this possibility. Maybe they are making genuine accusations, but it is just a little odd that once the serious possibility of them being scum buddies is raised then they invert their approaches to each other without actually presenting any really strong arguments (ie. Ryan just following DS yesterday).

Plus, note that Miz immediately expresses suspicion on Para once Para has voted Ryan. Hence, Miz is basically either:
a) Retracting his suspicion of Ryan in light of Para's vote; or
b) Suggesting Para is scum with Ryan

Since he didn't make any reference to b) and, indeed, Miz described the vote as "severely risky" this suggests that Miz adopted an a) approach. Of course, by that I am leaving open the question of whether Miz actually had suspicion in the first place, or whether he was just distancing.

Ryan/Miztef definitely looks strong to me at the moment and, after my rereading, I am really split as to who looks more scummy.

[Paradoxombie]

Thank you, D3sisted, for replacing so competently and quickly.

You bring up several points that I had not considered about Miztef. You make a good case. I realize now that I have essentially dismissed him all game. I'll have to consider all of this.

[ryan]

d3sisted: Impressive entry into the game, good job. Any ideas on who might be paired with Miztef?

[d3sisted]

d3sisted: Impressive entry into the game, good job. Any ideas on who might be paired with Miztef?

Heh, ryan... Do you fear that I know too much? Are you eager to know whether I suspect you as well?

Ryan/Miztef definitely looks strong to me at the moment and, after my rereading, I am really split as to who looks more scummy.

Assuming Miztef is scum, I think ryan looks

innocent.

On D2, ryan voted for Miztef and remained insistent despite the deadline. I highly doubt ryan would risk putting Miztef at L-1 should they have been buddies. From this cultivates two possibilities: either Miztef or ryan might be scum, but I would denounce the idea that they both are.

"Maybe they want to distance?" you say. I doubt that theory, and here's why: At the time, there was no suspicion of their being scumbuddies (there was some earlier, though that had more or less been quelled) so from their perspective, they had not a need for distancing. Besides, they stand to gain more if both of them remain alive: a) They win faster b) They ease the risk of having the town/SK/vig pick the remaining partner (i.e. safety) c) Easier to get mis-lynches out d) Maintains pressure upon the town by keeping the game at LyLo. The only advantage they gain from bussing is allaying a tenuous (even inexistent) suspicion. No need to run if you are not being pursued.

I realize that my post was extremely agressive on Miztef, moreso than I had planned to be; it's just that I could not help but point out

all

of the dubiousness in his posts, as such a major blip had gone unnoticed on everyone's radar. That being said, I would prefer not to make further accusations (against Miztef or anyone) until the accused has responded.

Chase two rabbits and you will catch neither.

[ryan]

d3sisted: I was interested in your point of view actually. There have been so many theories in this game that a fresh one would be very much welcomed. I don't disagree with your theory (although I'm not scum) but the point that has been made a few times is having a bunch of townies arguing while the mafia sits quiet, what is to say that you aren't scum and hence why you know so much about me and Miztef's allignment?

[d3sisted]

Right now I would like some explaination from the lurkers. Hurrikaty is 'ok' in my books, but I would like some real content soon from her. I'm happy with posion ivy until he/she posts.

Oh, and to add on to the Miztef case. Remember, he votes PI in 279, does nothing but point fingers here and there, before his 439 post, which in its entirety consists of:

Unvote Vote: Hurrikaty
_____
__ |_____|
|__|=====\= |____| /
\\|_____|//
HurriKaty


Sorry, but she hasen't posted, and I must agree that 2 Jester roles is quite unlikely.

All too sudden capriciousness, with impuissant justification/reasoning. For that, I just can't let him slide.

[d3sisted]

d3sisted: I was interested in your point of view actually. There have been so many theories in this game that a fresh one would be very much welcomed. I don't disagree with your theory (although I'm not scum) but the point that has been made a few times is having a bunch of townies arguing while the mafia sits quiet, what is to say that you aren't scum and

hence why you know so much about me and Miztef's allignment?

Haha, damn, you turned my post completely around on me

[ryan]

d3sisted: I was interested in your point of view actually. There have been so many theories in this game that a fresh one would be very much welcomed. I don't disagree with your theory (although I'm not scum) but the point that has been made a few times is having a bunch of townies arguing while the mafia sits quiet, what is to say that you aren't scum and

hence why you know so much about me and Miztef's allignment?

Haha, damn, you turned my post completely around on me

Just looking at the situation from two different sides (kinda like you)

[=Confused=]

Just letting you guys know I'm about 2/3 of the way though the thread now. I'm hopping to be fully caught up with you all come tomorrow.

[Paradoxombie]

I know I've already considered the possibility that d3sisted is scum with Ryan and Miztef, and hopes to save himself and ryan by throwing miztef under a bus along with that whole "either ryan and miz could be scum but not both" thing. But, in a LyLo situation, the whole thing is pretty much null.

[ryan]

So who's the scummiest in your opinion Para?

[Paradoxombie]

So who's the scummiest in your opinion Para?

The one who I am voting for.

[vollkan]

"Maybe they want to distance?" you say. I doubt that theory, and here's why: At the time, there was no suspicion of their being scumbuddies (there was some earlier, though that had more or less been quelled) so from their perspective, they had not a need for distancing. Besides, they stand to gain more if both of them remain alive: a) They win faster b) They ease the risk of having the town/SK/vig pick the remaining partner (i.e. safety) c) Easier to get mis-lynches out d) Maintains pressure upon the town by keeping the game at LyLo. The only advantage they gain from bussing is allaying a tenuous (even inexistent) suspicion. No need to run if you are not being pursued.

Can you direct me to where Ryan put Miz at L-1? I can't find it.

Assuming what you say is correct anyway,
You are basically saying that because Ryan voted Miz when they weren't under suspicion, therefore he couldn't have been distancing. It doesn't really work like that, however.

If Ryan behaves like that to Miz early on, it still distances himself pre-emptively; in fact that is one of the commonest ways that scum do distance. That way, people will be less likely to raise the possibility of Miz/Ryan.

Hence, I don't think that action debunks the Miz/Ryan; particularly given all the other evidence that I raised in #604.

Something else I notice which is odd, in that post of Miz's with the hammer ASCII art:

Unvote Vote: Hurrikaty
_____
__ |_____|
|__|=====\= |____| /
\\|_____|//
HurriKaty


Sorry, but she hasen't posted, and I must agree that 2 Jester roles is quite unlikely.

Okay, he does an ASCII-art hammer, odd and it suggests some sort of eagerness to lynch. Why bother going to the trouble of writing the hammer?
Then, however, Miz actually apologises for the hammering. If he really had a conviction that HK was scum, why on earth did he feel the need to apologise. Plus, everyone else had given their consent to a hammering, Miz was hardly taking an unpopular course of action. I can't believe we glossed over this, but he is practically pre-empting a townie death.

All the stuff from my reread, the past stuff and d3sisted's new evidence have pretty much solidified my suspicion of Miz. I don't like Ryan either (as I already said, I was considering voting Ryan after some discussion today) but on view of the events as a whole, I definitely think Miz comes off worse.

Vote: Miztef

[Paradoxombie]

Vollkan, I am very VERY confident that ryan is scum and in the unlikely case that Miztef isn't I'd feel bad if we lost, hence I tell you now.

[d3sisted]

Can you direct me to where Ryan put Miz at L-1? I can't find it.

When the deadline was implemented, 3 votes meant a lynch and since Ryan had the second vote on Miztef, he put L-1. I also considered whether VD changed his vote to ryan to purposefully put DeathSauce at most votes, but that is out of the question since he was Town.

Assuming what you say is correct anyway,
You are basically saying that because Ryan voted Miz when they weren't under suspicion, therefore he couldn't have been distancing. It doesn't really work like that, however.

My point was, in the given situation, they had more to lose by distancing than gain. I see your point though. Unfortunately, I'm not very familiar with the preemptive distancing strategy so I didn't give it thought.

Hence, I don't think that action debunks the Miz/Ryan; particularly given all the other evidence that I raised in #604.

Meh, just my opinion. Miztef takes highest priority right now anyway.

As for the Ascii art, I'm pretty sure he was just being cute. But then the art didn't show up the way he wanted it, hence his apology.

By the way, how do you calculate whether a situation is LyLo? Is it considered LyLo right now? I was under the impression it was, since mis-lynch, mafia NK, SK NK can reduce us to 4 overnight. If it is, Vollkan you might want to be careful with that vote. You haven't even heard what the guy's got to say for himself.

[d3sisted]

Does anyone else find it weird that two died N1, but only one in N2? I’m guessing that the SK or vig was inactive. Hence, I am inclined to think =Confused=

SweenyTodd

is SK or vig.

A thought just occurred to me, could =Confused= be a Godfather, but since he was inactive, didn’t get a chance to send in the NK? Are there even GFs in Normal Mini?

Once I've heard had the honour of hearing from everyone, I'd like to give an in-depth commentary on ABR's playing style this game. I've already gotten some stuff written up that I want to share. Alas, I fear my hamartia may be my impatience...

[d3sisted]

As for the Ascii art, I'm pretty sure he was just being cute. But then the art didn't show up the way he wanted it, hence his apology.

Bah, scrap that, I re-read and you are absolutely right. You bring up an excellent point.

[vollkan]

I also considered whether VD changed his vote to ryan to purposefully put DeathSauce at most votes, but that is out of the question since he was Town.

VD unvoted Miz in #701 and then voted Ryan in #707. The only effect of unvoting would have been to make DS the lynchee and I am pretty sure VD would have been aware of this.

However, given that VD then became set on Ryan, I don't think he wanted DS lynched.

I see your point though. Unfortunately, I'm not very familiar with the preemptive distancing strategy so I didn't give it thought.

Yeah. I figured that since you had said you were new, you probably hadn't considered that Miz and Ryan had undertaken proactive distancing.

By the way, how do you calculate whether a situation is LyLo? Is it considered LyLo right now? I was under the impression it was, since mis-lynch, mafia NK, SK NK can reduce us to 4 overnight. If it is, Vollkan you might want to be careful with that vote. You haven't even heard what the guy's got to say for himself.

LYLO is where a mislynch will cause a loss. ie. 4 townies and 2 scum. If the town lynch one of their own, it goes to 3:2 and then the scum NK brings it to 2:2 (which is a win for the scum).

As I proved with the numbers in #756, there is tremendous risk in scum hammering rapidly because the fact that we have a vig/SK throws significant uncertainty into the mix. In #756, I concluded the situation is now LYLO/D. Even if a town is lynched today without the scum outing themselves by doing a rapid hammer, they still run the risk of a draw. If they were to hammer and out themselves, a draw would be pretty much certain unless they were able to NK the vig.

Of course, if the situation is 4:2:1 (with the last 1 being a SK), the situation is much the same. I will do the numbers thing for this now, much like I did for 4:3 in #756.
If it is 4:2:1,

Townie Lynched D3 = 3:2:1

Scum NK of town = 2:2:1
____SK NK of town = 1:2:1
____SK NK of scum = 2:1:1

Scum NK of SK = 3:2
____SK NK of town = 2:2 (scum win)
____SK NK of scum = 3:1 (LYLO)

Scum Lynched D3 = 3:1:1

Scum NK of town = 2:1:1
____SK NK of town = 1:1:1
____SK NK of scum = 2:0:1 (LYLO with the SK)

Scum NK of SK = 3:1
____SK NK of town = 2:1 (LYLO)
____SK NK of scum = 3:0 (town win)

SK Lynched D3 = 3:2

Scum NK of town = 2:2 (scum win)

As can be seen, some results are clear LYLO, some are scum win, one is town win and the rest are very messy and complicated.

*takes a breath* In short. The scum will be risking a lot by rapidly hammering in either case (the other case being 4:3 with a vig, which I discussed in #756)

Does anyone else find it weird that two died N1, but only one in N2? I’m guessing that the SK or vig was inactive. Hence, I am inclined to think =Confused= SweenyTodd is SK or vig.

A thought just occurred to me, could =Confused= be a Godfather, but since he was inactive, didn’t get a chance to send in the NK? Are there even GFs in Normal Mini?

It is also possible that the vig is only a 1 shot vig, that the vig felt unsure or that the scum and vig targeted the same person.

I also read somewhere (the wiki I think) that usually SKs cannot just abstain from their NK. If an SK didn't send in their night choice does that mean they would be modkilled?

As an aside, it probably is not a good idea to hypothesize on who is the vig; it looks suspiciously like you are hunting for a power role.