Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

First off, after reading the posts I missed, I want to take issue with Glork's repeated criticism of my "circular logic"--his term for what I call something very different. I strongly believe that to assess the likelihood that a player is scum, you must for a moment suspend disbelief and ASSUME they are scum, and then take a walk through their actions and their dead scumpartners' actions to see whether or not the assumption makes sense in totality. What you are in fact doing is hoping to DISPROVE that they are scum, a conclusion that would have great value if more than one suspect remains. There were a few lines in my analysis that pointed to issues with Glorkscum:

* The only three people CDB commented on D1 were Glork, CES and Andrew, which would be his two scumpartners and the lynchee, terribly sloppy distancing.

* All three of {Glork, CES, CDB} were on both of the first two lynches.

* CES dies as scumfather. Glork isn't on the wagon.

Reading my analysis of Patrick as scum, one problem point came up:

* Patrick defended CES and CDB somewhat boldly.

The point is this--using this technique as one tool in a wider repertoire of scumhunting techniques is perfectly acceptable, and is not indicative of me having my head up my ass, as Glork put it so kindly. Nor is it circular logic. I would hope that any thorough town player would walk this game in my shoes and see whether or not my actions could conceivably make sense as a member of scumteam {CES, CDB, MBL}. I'm confident they'd find more incongruities than they'd find by doing an analysis of {Patrick, CES, CDB}.

I also took rational offense to Patrick's (and Glork's) argument that I somehow manipulated a no-lynch. For us to have avoided no-lynch, there were three realistic options:

* Mgm switch to MBL
* MBL and Glork switch to Patrick
* Mgm and Patrick switch to Glork.

To look at these three possibilities side by side and somehow conclude that it was I who was responsible for the no-lynch, let alone manipulated it, is absurd.

I'll break this train of thought up into several posts for readability.

[MrBuddyLee]

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

This is insane, and almost reads like you're trying to shift the blame already for when I turn up town.

I think what Mgm was saying here, Patrick, is that you're imploring him to listen to other players to divine the truth, when in fact you haven't availed yourself of the same opportunity.

You're also choosing dead people selectively. Yes, Glork found me scummy but he ALWAYS finds me scummy. In our last three games together he's lynched me as town D1, come within 20 minutes of lynching me as town on D1, and called for my vig D1. If you really wanted Mgm to listen to the dead, you'd have included final opinions from a few of our other underground town:

Id say MBL was the most protown looking player here.

I'm watching Ether, Glork, and Patrick. As ever, love the analysis, MBL.

I'm uncertain about MBL (though I find his effort put in today to be very pro-town)

Glork and MBL are town.

I'm not suggesting that he should listen to these people, I'm suggesting that picking any one particular dead guy to follow is selectively scummy.

Also, we've already demonstrated that Glork's been on more bad lynches than anyone in this game, so I'm not sure why a townie would ask anyone to put their entire faith in Glork's word this game in the same breath as they insult their scumhunting.

[MrBuddyLee]

Consistency in suspicion and argument are hallmarks of town. Patrick's final case against me contains a glaring inconsistency--it goes against everything he's been trying to tell us for weeks now about how he believes nightkills should be treated:

The three previous nightkills have all been guys who worked out I was town (CTD, Thesp, Glork) and note that two of them strongly thought MBL was scum. It is so obvious I'm being setup here it practically burns my eyes.

I'm always unsure how much to read into a nightkill. I'd rather go by what's in the thread. What about you?

Pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill?

Your theory is complete and utter WIFOM. I haven't made anything out of the nightkill; I don't think it points strongly in one direction, and I'm unwilling to put so much weight on a nightkill as you seem to be.

The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea.

Looking at nightkills is usually a risky way of finding scum. I guarantee you if you look at a bunch of games here, you will not see nightkill WIFOM being heavily used in looking for scum. Thesp is the better player, thus more likely to find the truth, especially with his form in this game. That seems to me the most obvious explanation for why he died.

If you are as experienced as you claim, Mgm, then you must surely know that basing big decisions off nightkills is rarely used or encouraged because of how risky it is.

I did not put alot of weight in the Thesp nightkill.

Nail, meet coffin.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 1 (Patrick)
Patrick: 1 (MrBuddyLee)

Not voting: Mgm

3 alive means

2

to lynch and end the game! So choose wisely!

[Mgm]

So Patrick is selective in telling which dead guys to believe and on top of that he says, that although I shouldn't read too much into nightkills, I should believe the nightkilled people who believe him to be town.

You'd better explain that.

[Mgm]

MBL, you say that you and Glork always find each other scummy. Can you point out some game names/links for my perusal?

[Patrick]

I think what Mgm was saying here, Patrick, is that you're imploring him to listen to other players to divine the truth, when in fact you haven't availed yourself of the same opportunity.

He's blaming me for the fact that you aren't dead yet. That doesn't seem fair, he has within his power to solve that right now, and I've pointed out how, as scum, I'd probably have tried to get you killed on day 5. In true fashion, he's completely ignored that.

Let's look at the other people you've included. Who takes Battle Mage seriously? Of course, you've left out the fact that BM also thought I was town. As for Adele, you're presenting her opinion from DAY 2. Such an opinion is much less important that someone who got to day 4 or 5. Adele also played a poor game. I've also explained earlier why Zindaras is not a good authority; he didn't have a clue what was going on this game. He paid very little attention, and was gone for most of the time before his modkill. And Thesp found you scummier than me. You've left that out too.

Glork and Thesp and CTD are all respected scumhunters, the first two have been accurate in this game. Glork was pratically begging Mgm yesterday to hammer you for the win, I think that means significantly more than some idle comment by Zindaras on day 4.

As for the nightkills issue, Mgm hasn't been consistent at all. He's semi cleared MBL for the Thesp kill (and even MBL has admitted thats total bullshit), yet he refuses to apply the same standards to other nightkills. If I was scum, a (Patrick, Glork, MBL) endgame would be a fairly simple win for me. I think it's worth asking Mgm to explain why exactly he thinks I'd have taken this endgame voluntarily. WIFOM doesn't apply nearly as much when one option is clearly better than another. Given that Mgm has been viewing everything through "Patrick is scum" glasses for the second half of day 6 and all of today, I think as scum killing him would have the obvious thing for me to do.

[Patrick]

I also took rational offense to Patrick's (and Glork's) argument that I somehow manipulated a no-lynch. For us to have avoided no-lynch, there were three realistic options:

* Mgm switch to MBL
* MBL and Glork switch to Patrick
* Mgm and Patrick switch to Glork.

To look at these three possibilities side by side and somehow conclude that it was I who was responsible for the no-lynch, let alone manipulated it, is absurd.

Offhand, I don't remember saying this. I believe Mgm caused the no lynch.

Also, we've already demonstrated that Glork's been on more bad lynches than anyone in this game, so I'm not sure why a townie would ask anyone to put their entire faith in Glork's word this game in the same breath as they insult their scumhunting.

I'm not asking Mgm to put his entire faith in Glork's word. I am asking Mgm to actually conceive of the possibility that Glork could be right, because I think it's blatantly obvious that Mgm has been coming at it from the entire angle of thinking I'm scum, and is selectively reading. He sees only what he wants to see, the rest he dismisses because it doesn't support the conclusion he wants to be true.

[Patrick]

Re the Circular logic, it's already been explained, MBL, that using it allowed you to paint both Glork and I worse yesterday. Take the example pointed out by Glork yesterday, you just listed my attacks on CES as "busing day 5". You didn't explain why it's more likely busing than legitimately calling out CES as scum. You just state it's busing and leave it at that.

Yesterday you played the field, with the intention of leaving yourself maximum flexibility to go in either direction, despite your often repeated comments that Glork was far scummier. When Mgm came after me, you tried to look for a way to slide towards me as well, based on Fritzler's possible cop investigation (which you only chose to take seriously when everyone else had said it was a very real possibility -- before then you just shrugged it off). To help you in that switch, you pretended to metagame Fritzler (from 2 games which you played in originally anyway), and acted like you'd only just discovered that he can be obvious as a cop. And when I pointed that out, you went back to Glork despite stating that you believed there was a 60% chance he was confirmed innocent. You tried to pass off your hedging yesterday by painting yourself as a dilligent and model townie, because you realised that going all out against one person gave you a lower chance of obtaining a mislynch.

I'm amazed you didn't die yesterday, and I'm amazed you're not dead today.

[Mgm]

As for the nightkills issue, Mgm hasn't been consistent at all. He's semi cleared MBL for the Thesp kill (and even MBL has admitted thats total bullshit), yet he refuses to apply the same standards to other nightkills. If I was scum, a (Patrick, Glork, MBL) endgame would be a fairly simple win for me.

You're forgetting the fact that if you let the end game end up in a Patrick Glork MBL game, Glork would wonder why ScuMBL would leave his most vocal opponents alive and consider lynching you. With you believing I'm keen on using nightkills as evidence, you may well have kept me alive and use the nightkill to convince me you'd never make that play (aka WIFOM).

That said, I went through the whole no lynch thing with a purpose. I wanted the info of the final scum kill to use to my advantage without the chance you'd take a gambit, which is why I acted so stubbornly and why I didn't want to do too much explaining about the whole no lynch idea. I wanted to convince you, Patrick, that keeping me alive would be suicide and I wanted to convince MBL that leaving Glork and you alive would be equally suicidal to discourage any gambits. Basically, I faked my stubbornness through the second half of the day to force a move - poker style.

Here goes:

Vote: MBL

[Mr Stoofer]

That said, I went through the whole no lynch thing with a purpose. I wanted the info of the final scum kill to use to my advantage without the chance you'd take a gambit, which is why I acted so stubbornly and why I didn't want to do too much explaining about the whole no lynch idea. I wanted to convince you, Patrick, that keeping me alive would be suicide and I wanted to convince MBL that leaving Glork and you alive would be equally suicidal to discourage any gambits. Basically, I faked my stubbornness through the second half of the day to force a move - poker style.

[Mr Stoofer]

End of Game Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 2 (Patrick, Mgm )

Patrick: 1 (MrBuddyLee)

So I had better turn over MBL's card. Here it is...

[Mr Stoofer]

Game Over: Town wins!

[Mr Stoofer]

Roles and Nightchoices

I'd be surprised if anyone is in any doubt about these, but I'll post them for the sake of good order.

The Mafia

Cogito Ergo Sum was Michael Corleone, the Godfather.
MrBuddyLee was Tom Hagen.
ChannelDelibird was Luca Brasi.

N1: CES killed spectrumvoid.
N2: MBL killed Adele.
N3: MBL killed Fritzler.
N4: MBL killed CrashTextDummie.
N5: MBL killed Thesp.
N6: MBL killed GLork

The Town

Fritzler was a Cop

N1: Investigated Thesp - Innocent. His original choice was "Protect MBL", until I suggested he re-read his role PM.
N2: Investigated Adele - Dead.
N3: Investigated Ether - Innocent. But he died that night.

Adele was also a Cop

N1: Investigated Mgm - Innocent.
N2: Died.

spectrumvoid was a Vigilante

N1: killed IH

The Innocent Townspersons were

: CrashTextDummie/Ether, Zindaras, Glork, AndrewS, IH, Patrick, Mgm, Battle Mage/Nightfall and Thesp.

[Mgm]

That said, I went through the whole no lynch thing with a purpose. I wanted the info of the final scum kill to use to my advantage without the chance you'd take a gambit, which is why I acted so stubbornly and why I didn't want to do too much explaining about the whole no lynch idea. I wanted to convince you, Patrick, that keeping me alive would be suicide and I wanted to convince MBL that leaving Glork and you alive would be equally suicidal to discourage any gambits. Basically, I faked my stubbornness through the second half of the day to force a move - poker style.

I was actually scared I tipped my hand. I almost caught myself explaining too much which would've been disastrous.

[Mr Stoofer]

You should have heard the names that Glork and Patrick were calling you on AIM, thinking that you were going to vote Patrick today. They couldn't believe that you would think that Patrick would have killed Glork; and neither could I.

Turns out you didn't think that at all.

[Mgm]

I wonder what comments they have now.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm pretty sure they'll forgive you!

[Mr Stoofer]

patrickgower2006 (1:57:14 pm): WTF
patrickgower2006 (1:57:22 pm): LOL
Mr J Stoofer (1:57:23 pm): Mgm was lying
patrickgower2006 (1:57:30 pm): OMG
patrickgower2006 (1:57:32 pm): STOOF
patrickgower2006 (1:57:34 pm): MARRY ME
patrickgower2006 (1:57:43 pm): OH JOY
Mr J Stoofer (1:57:44 pm): rolfmao
patrickgower2006 (1:57:46 pm): I AM SO HAPPY
Mr J Stoofer (1:57:51 pm): rofl
patrickgower2006 (1:58:28 pm): OK
patrickgower2006 (1:58:30 pm): HE'S FORGIVEN
patrickgower2006 (1:58:31 pm): lol

[Patrick]

Lol...

I really wasn't expecting that. Yes, I was very frustrated towards the end of yesterday and all of today, as I thought it was blindingly obvious I was town. You put me through hell Mgm, my nerves are crushed :/

Congratulations on making a good decision. I'll probably have more comments later, too euphoric right now. I wonder what Glork is going to do >.>

[Mgm]

MBL: You knew I was capable of making a 180 turn and switch my vote to someone else. Why the heck did you keep me alive? Were you really convinced I'd lynch Patrick when it came down to it?

[Simenon]

His original choice was "Protect MBL", until I suggested he re-read his role PM.

lol.

[Patrick]

Well... I was convinced you'd lynch me when it came down to it.

[CrashTextDummie]

Oh my god.

Watching the last few days of this game felt like watching a Bugs Bunny cartoon, with Mgm playing the role of Elmer Fudd, hopelessly falling for it every time MBL held up a "Duck Season" sign or put on unconvincing drag. That's what it felt like, anyway, and words cannot express how happy I am that I don't have to suggest the introduction of the "Elmer Fudd Award" for Mgm, and in this moment of euphoria might even suggest him for "Cool Person of this Game Award" despite his rather weak play for most of the game.

That said, I feel that despite only having 4 relevant posts in this game, this was probably my best scumhunting effort ever, correctly reading all but one player, and I am incredibly happy that the game wasn't lost on the silly assumption that my NK was of no importance. Because to me, it was glaringly obvious as soon as I read that morning scene, that I must have done

something

right in my analysis.

Awesome game, everyone.

[Mgm]

See? That no lynch wasn't so bad after all...