Kingmaker II-Game Over

[RafK]

Not really. Unless you mean he's a bit too sure that you're a wrong townie rather than a evil scum? But I haven't really noticed MoS expressing a view that you're scum (open to correction if this is incorrect), so it wouldn't be inconsistent.

[petroleumjelly]

Uh. I think Thesp is referring to the fact that MoS is seemingly showing confidence in multiple people's alignments who Thesp suspects by saying "you'll be surprised" - instead of a qualifier like "I expect you'll be surprised [since I think X, Y, Z are town]". It also has the extra quality of "when they show up dead", which implies he at least partially expects them to turn up dead to begin with. And as you correctly point out, it also has the implicit assumption that Thesp himself is town.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Have I not specifically said that I thought Thesp was town? I thought I'd made that clear already, as LONG time ago.

As for my statement, I'm not particularly saying that he's wrong about all of them. However, despite slight gut instincts that I have felt against Cavane, his play has been quite protown, and I *know* my own alignment, so that's 2/3 of the people already. And Thesp voted for Der Hammer, who

isn't even in the game

. In fact, Der Hammer was

replaced by

Cavane

...

[Thok]

Offical Vote Count

Deadline: 3 PDT, Wednesday, August 29

King Yosarian2 (1):

Cavane (1):
Fritzler (1): Toaster Strudel
KaleiÐoscøpe (0): Fritzler, Mnowax, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly
Lowell (0):
Mastermind of Sin (1):
mnowax (1):
petroleumjelly (1):
RafK (0):
ThAdmiral (0):
Thesp (0): Cavane, Mastermind of Sin
Toaster Strudel (1):

Autoprodding Lowell and mnowax

[Cavane]

In fact, Der Hammer was

replaced by

Cavane

...

I hope that doesn't mean I got two votes...

Seriosuly, though, I know I didn't bring much, if anything to the table on that post. I felt the need to say something, since I hadn't posted in some time. (I am closely watching the game, however.) I could have simply said "I am unsure of PJ's alignment right now.", but I wanted to explain my thinking.

Uh. I think Thesp is referring to the fact that MoS is seemingly showing confidence in multiple people's alignments who Thesp suspects by saying "you'll be surprised" - instead of a qualifier like "I expect you'll be surprised [since I think X, Y, Z are town]".

Except he did say 'I

think

you'll be surprised.'

[Thesp]

Have I not specifically said that I thought Thesp was town? I thought I'd made that clear already, as LONG time ago.

As for my statement, I'm not particularly saying that he's wrong about all of them. However, despite slight gut instincts that I have felt against Cavane, his play has been quite protown, and I *know* my own alignment, so that's 2/3 of the people already. And Thesp voted for Der Hammer, who

isn't even in the game

. In fact, Der Hammer was

replaced by

Cavane

...

I've got to update some of my player notes. Apparently, I think he's twice as scummy.

As for my statement, I'm not particularly saying that he's wrong about all of them. However, despite slight gut instincts that I have felt against Cavane, his play has been quite protown

Really? I was kind of surprised that you said you favored Cavane's statement over TS's recently, when Cavane made a huge waffling post, and TS took a stand on something. I thought Cavane's post was a big nothign post, which by this indication, you took as leaning pro-town (or not worthy enough to pay much heed to), is that correct?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I believe PJ.

Blanket acceptance of everything PJ has said in his defense.

PJ's point that if he had stated his intentions to execute VR, it would have shut the game down while he was away, I think is valid. But Raf also has a valid point that it spread discussion out and took the focus

off

VR. Whether or not this was an intentional tactic on PJ's part, is the question here. I can definately see a scum PJ employing such a move, but I can also see town PJ trying to encourage discussion. Overall, however, it's a bad mark against him in that a townie was executed, and while I had PJ pegged as town, I'm definitely going to rethink my position.

I like this post better, because I *don't* think he's waffling. I think he's being specific in which arguments he agrees with, which is better. In TS's case, he could've said "I believe PJ.", but then later he might've said "Well, I believed he was town, but I didn't *necessarily* agree with that particular point", if perhaps PJ came up scum at some time. I feel that TS's statement could've allowed more wiggle room, whereas Cavane's clearly states what he agrees with, so that he can't say he meant something else later.

[Toaster Strudel]

Wiggle, wiggle, nope, can't wiggle.

PJ strikes me as pro-town. He's trying to find scum in earnest. He might be real smooth, but I can't believe he'd be that smooth.

[Thesp]

PJ's point that if he had stated his intentions to execute VR, it would have shut the game down while he was away, I think is valid. But Raf also has a valid point that it spread discussion out and took the focus

off

VR. Whether or not this was an intentional tactic on PJ's part, is the question here. I can definately see a scum PJ employing such a move, but I can also see town PJ trying to encourage discussion. Overall, however, it's a bad mark against him in that a townie was executed, and while I had PJ pegged as town, I'm definitely going to rethink my position.

I like this post better, because I *don't* think he's waffling. I think he's being specific in which arguments he agrees with, which is better. In TS's case, he could've said "I believe PJ.", but then later he might've said "Well, I believed he was town, but I didn't *necessarily* agree with that particular point", if perhaps PJ came up scum at some time. I feel that TS's statement could've allowed more wiggle room, whereas Cavane's clearly states what he agrees with, so that he can't say he meant something else later.

Really? See, he's making

exactly

the sort of post I would expect scum to make - he's vague and wishy-washy. Come on, "I can definately see a scum PJ employing such a move, but I can also see town PJ trying to encourage discussion" isn't waffling? He's stating

absolutely nothing

with this post, and he's not agreeing with anything, really! He's saying, "PJ could be scum, or could not be scum", and he's saying "I thought he was town, but I'm leaving the door open to lynching him now". I'm really having a hard time seeing how you can construe these statements as being more likely to come from town, when everything I've seen say the opposite - scum are far more likely to waver like this, and especially more likely to "leave the door open" as Cavane has done.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Amazingly, I agree with Thesp. Hence I pointed it out.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I agree that the one sentence you pointed out of the entire post is him not taking a decisive stance, but I don't have a problem with it, because it seems to me that the end of his post implies that he will be doing some sort of reread/analysis in the near future, upon which he will update us on his overall position. Of course, should he not do this...*shrug* I'd be forced to agree with you for once .

[Yosarian2]

One thing I just noticed is that somehow Fritzer seems to have slipped back under the radar, I guess mostly just because he's lurking like a mofo. Has anyone's opinion of him changed recently? What would people think about him as a lynch candidate.

[Mastermind of Sin]

he'll always be a good lynch candidate.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Interesting how alot of people are witholding themselves from voting, like people are scared to speak it out formally.

Also, still in favour of a Fritz lynch

[Toaster Strudel]

vote: Fritzler

[Thesp]

I agree that the one sentence you pointed out of the entire post is him not taking a decisive stance, but I don't have a problem with it, because it seems to me that the end of his post implies that he will be doing some sort of reread/analysis in the near future, upon which he will update us on his overall position.

You're seeming to imply that you thought the rest of his post was decisive, or at least moreso than the sentence I pulled out. Let's see...

PJ's point that if he had stated his intentions to execute VR, it would have shut the game down while he was away, I think is valid. But Raf also has a valid point that it spread discussion out and took the focus off VR. Whether or not this was an intentional tactic on PJ's part, is the question here.

...


Overall, however, it's a bad mark against him in that a townie was executed, and while I had PJ pegged as town, I'm definitely going to rethink my position.

Can you tell me what's decisive about this post? It looks to me like he's saying, "PJ might not be scum, but he might be." He even posits that the question is, "[w]hether or not this was an intentional tactic on PJ's part", but

doesn't answer

that same question. He's throwing vague suspicion out there without committing to it, which is a hallmark of scum. I really can't fathom how you are concluding that he's being decisive or useful with his post. Can you help me understand?

One thing I just noticed is that somehow Fritzer seems to have slipped back under the radar, I guess mostly just because he's lurking like a mofo. Has anyone's opinion of him changed recently? What would people think about him as a lynch candidate.

What do

you

think of him as a lynch candidate? What do you think of Cavane as a lynch candidate?

Also,

Mod: can Fritzler be prodded/replaced/modkilled?

I know you're reluctant to modkill anyone this far into the game, but his absence to the degree he has presented is intolerable.

[Thok]

Fritzler has been prodded.

[petroleumjelly]

All right. Been thinking about the game more than usual tonight / this morning (since it is now officially the only game I'm in), and here is where I'm currently at. I've been debating whether or not to make a full "list" from "Town -> Scum" (because those seem to bite me in the ass later), and decided that I will because that tends to be how

I

think and categorize people when I'm playing.

Really

Think They are Town

Lowell
Thesp

Leaning Town

Yosarian2
Mastermind of Sin

Want to Give a Swift Kick in the Pants

RafK

Middle Ground / Difficult to Read (More Likely Scum at Bottom)

K-Scope
Toaster Strudel
Cavane
-> Cannot Read (50/50): Fritzler

Leaning Scum

ThAdmiral
mnowax2

General (and Condensed) Explanations of Above

• Lowell
  - the early meltdown by cb0x looks town. Both of the analyses he did yesterday looked 100% legitimately made from a townsperson.
  
• Thesp
  - the way Pablito played early-game is much more "gambiteering" than I would ever expect Pablito to play as scum - I know from experience that he is more prone to laying back and in the shadows for the first few days. After analyzing Thesp's posts yesterday (game day), I don't think I was disturbed by anything except a few cases of unexplained reasoning (in fact, I can't recall if he ever explained his immediate votes after CES' death?), which is certainly not unusual for him.
  
• Yosarian2
  - I haven't been getting any sinister vibes from him the entire game, and I've certainly done
  at least
  three isolated rereads on him to date, and I don't think I've walked away from any of those thinking he was scum.
  However
  , I will caveat this with that I
  also
  did not get very scummy vibes from him in "24 Mafia", which has just recently finished and he won as scum, so I am not prone to trusting him fully.
  
• Mastermind of Sin
  - In a way MoS's game has paralleled Pablito's - I've rather been thinking his playstyle choices (especially that of refusing to vote) make him considerably less likely to be scum (even though I more than realize this could be deemed as WIFOM). The only thing nagging at me lately is that I'm noticing a trend of "You should execute so-and-so...
  but not today
  ". On the surface, I think that is a fairly scummy thing to say - if you think somebody is scum, they ought to be executed, regardless of how much "information" you think you will gain in the process. We've had plenty of "information" by now with
  half the players being dead
  , so I'm really not too concerned if we happen to execute scum which doesn't itself "lead to a next logical scum". Fact is, executing scum
  gives the town more executions
  because then the scum have to work harder to get however many misexecutions they need in order to win.
  
  Special Note: Yos2 and MoS are very prone to swinging onto the scummy side of my list, but at the moment (especially when I consider the

  other

  players in the game), they are leaning town.
  
  
• RafK
  - Sorely tempted to call him scummy for the hell of it, but I know for much of the game I have felt on the same wave-length with him (primarily when trying to explain my early suspicions of spectrumvoid, which he seemed to understand and complement my explanations). Right now, I'm getting the feeling that RafK is just a stubborn (and frustrating) townsperson who is like a freaking bulldog and does let go of people until they are lifeless in his jaws. I do not think he is right about Yos2, and I know he is wrong about me - I think he is a dangerous townsperson because his suspicions seem very wrong to me,
  but
  (and I know this is me wading off into the WIFOM pool again) as scum, he would seriously have some easier targets given the player-list in this game, instead going after experienced players like myself and Yos2. He was originally in my "middle ground" while I was writing this, but after putting my thoughts on paper I have to concede I think he is more likely town than scum, but not quite in the same category as Yos2/MoS.
  
  Special Note: I have tried to arrange my list so that I could be induced to bet that all the people I've labeled with "town" are indeed town - I'm trying not to throw around the term loosely, in other words. I specifically did not label RafK as "town" because I want to kick him in the pants regardless of what alignment he turns out to be, and I find it more probable that he could turn up scum than the four players above him in the list.
  
  
• K-Scope
  - Off the top of the head, I am remembering him as being one of the players who tends to be in the "hurry up and kill somebody" camp (which seems to be growing as the game continues). His biggest pluses are the two analyses he did yesterday on myself and Yos2 - I have just read them through once more, and both times I am really getting the impression that he is showing his thought process as he reads, and that he is writing his post without knowing where he will end up (in other words he is not manipulating what he sees to fit a pre-ordained bias or necessity). However, I also feel like he has had enough "fluff" posts and one-liners (while managing to generally stay under the radar) that I am not confident enough to label him as town, and I also think he is
  slightly
  more likely to be scum than RafK.
  
• Toaster Strudel
  - Yet another member of the "hurry up and kill somebody" camp. I very well
  could
  be working off of an outdated metagaming system for Toaster Strudel, but from past experience (from both playing with her and possible alternate accounts she may or may not control), I tend to think scum-TS would be
  much
  more likely to give off of a vibe "scum mastermind" with "plans within plans" (even if they do not exist). She tends to be a bit wackier as scum, and certainly outwardly seems to be having more fun than she appears to be having in this game. My metagame on TS specifically is coming from Evolution Mafia and Lights Out 2, for anybody with knowledge of those games (and other games where I might possibly be getting this impression are Covert-Ops and Bastard Mod).
  
• Cavane
  – After skimming over Cavane's posts before writing this one, I've placed him lower on my list (closer to the scum side of the spectrum) than before. I
  thought
  he had contributed more than he actually has, but he only has 23 posts over the course of about two and a half months, and a good number of them are contentless in terms of expressing suspicion or even getting people to comment on the game. This indicates to me that he has managed to slip under my radar without much scrutiny. Der Hammer has been completely useless as a player in the game to my memory, and I don't even remember Vaughn doing anything (although I also believe he was replaced D1 or D2). I had actually forgotten that Der Hammer
  was
  Cavane at all when reading Thesp's post where he voted both of them. I would not be at all surprised to see him turn up scum.
  
• Fritzler
  – I'm not going to sugarcoat this. I cannot read Fritz – I think his alignment is a complete coinflip. 'nuff said.
  
• ThAdmiral
  – After reading through his recent posts as well, he as actually contributed even less than Cavane (if that is possible). I really thought I remembered more coming from his mouth. He has only 26 posts over the course of six months, and has really managed to not get much thought or attention from me for much of the game during his time here. His entrance to the game leads up to an expectation that he is going to read through the game, which he states will take 'more like a day', and then votes without giving any explanations. Probably the biggest thing I've noted during my read is that he primarily sticks to responding to Shanba (who has since died and he has not really had to respond to people since). He also did not really give an explanation at all when I asked him to elaborate earlier suspicions. Olio (after reskimming his posts) did nothing to make me think he is town, and CDB I seem to recall was the person who got cardb0ardb0x to melt down at the beginning of the game, and then he was promptly replaced. In other words, he has also done nothing to make me think he was town.
  
• mnowax2
  – Finally, mnowax2. Starting with Dead Rikimaru, I've made it crystal clear that everything about his Kingship looked like a carnie entertaining a crowd – he constantly kept talking about what he had just behind his curtains, but in the end the sprinkler system went off and he whisked everybody out of the building without giving refunds. His Kingship seemed designed in such a way that he could lurk
  while
  being the supposed center of attention. Smashy came into the game, decided to choose between 'spectrumvoid and LL', and executed LuckayLuck, one of the people I remember thinking was very likely to be town. Then he was replaced. Battle Mage continued the legacy with statements like "I don't really think an SV execution is appropriate". Then he was replaced. Perhaps the biggest (current) bolt against him (which I have just noticed from skimming his posts) is that in his first appearance (as town) he was
  against
  a VitaminR execution. When he replaced back in (to his current role), he "could go for his head – his tactics are a little shady when it comes to defense'. Mind explaining this for me?

*phew*

Vote: mnowax2, ThAdmiral, Fritzler, Cavane

, my top four picks for scum, and in order.

[Yosarian2]

Nice analysis, PJ. I agree with most of it.

What do

you

think of him as a lynch candidate? What do you think of Cavane as a lynch candidate?

Also,

Mod: can Fritzler be prodded/replaced/modkilled?

I know you're reluctant to modkill anyone this far into the game, but his absence to the degree he has presented is intolerable.

At this point, as I've been saying, Fritzer is quite high on my personal list of suspicion. He hasn't done much this game, and what he has done has been almost universally anti-town.

I do want to hear in the near future what everyone would think about a Fritzer execution.

Cavane's also a reasonable suspect. I agree with PJ that he hasn't really contribued much, and what he has posted has often seemed kind of wishy-washy.

[petroleumjelly]

Hey! You aren't walking off

that

easily.

What do you agree with in my last analysis? What do you disagree with? Since you agree with only "most of it" (instead of "all of it"), there must be some points where you are not on the same page. Explain the differences. I think one of the mistakes I made with you in 24 was not having you explain your suspicions in detail.

[Yosarian2]

:walks off:

No, seriously, I do agree with most of what you've said. For example, what you said about RAFK agrees with my analysis; most likely a stubborn townie; wrong, but probably pro-town.

I think that Fritz isn't quite a "50-50 no info" person. Agreed, he's basically impossible to read, but you have to look at what he DID do. And as far as I can see, basiclally all he did was push for CTD to be lynched (who was pro-town) and some of his early posts seem like they be defending Pooky.

Other then that, I basically agree with your bottom 5; those are probably the 5 most likely people to be scum. I might put TS a little lower then you did, but otherwise, pretty much agree with it.

[Fritzler]

im here, and still support a ts lynch

also, i really liked you mnowax analysis pj

[Thesp]

im here, and still support a ts lynch

also, i really liked you mnowax analysis pj

What do you think of Cavane?

[Toaster Strudel]

At this point, as I've been saying, Fritzer is quite high on my personal list of suspicion. He hasn't done much this game, and what he has done has been almost universally anti-town.

I do want to hear in the near future what everyone would think about a Fritzer execution.

Exactly correct. Uncharacteristically, Fritler IS dead easy to read in this game, because he has done nothing, but absolutely nothing that was pro-town, and absolutely everything he did do was anti-town.

I am 100% behind a Fritlzer execution and I will front the cheerleader\\ing section when it happens.

I will add that the only problem I have with PJ thus far is that he seems to go easy on Fritzler. PJ knows you can always say that Fritzler is unreadable. However this game is an exception. I expect more from PJ. If Fritzler turns up scum... and we'll have to execute him sooner or later, so might as well be sooner, then I will have to change my mind, and look at the real possibility that PJ might be Fritzler's scummbuddy.

[Mastermind of Sin]

PJ, where have I said that someone shouldn't hang "today"? The only time I remember saying that was about bird1111 back on like Day 3 or something, after the crash last fall.