Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?

[Battle Mage]

At Lylo, scum will push for a lynch because it will help them win. What part of that logic do you not understand? You randomly state that our odds of hitting scum will be higher if we no lynch, then expect scum to go along with a no lynch and screw themselves? That's ILLOGICAL. Why would scum shoot for that no lynch?

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

so do you want a no-lynch? because up till now, you havent claimed to do so, thus by your own admission, you are scum, right?

[chaotic_diablo]

At Lylo, scum will push for a lynch because it will help them win. What part of that logic do you not understand? You randomly state that our odds of hitting scum will be higher if we no lynch, then expect scum to go along with a no lynch and screw themselves? That's ILLOGICAL. Why would scum shoot for that no lynch?

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

so do you want a no-lynch? because up till now, you havent claimed to do so, thus by your own admission, you are scum, right?

I prefer to lynch since we already have a pretty good chance at hitting scum. The details should already be listed on one of my previous posts.

By my own admission, I claimed that three of the five players on my list are scum. I do not remember placing myself on it. Other players will take themselves off their own lists instead of me so I can still possibly be scum to them. However, there is no reason why I should convince myself that I'm scum.

[Battle Mage]

At Lylo, scum will push for a lynch because it will help them win. What part of that logic do you not understand? You randomly state that our odds of hitting scum will be higher if we no lynch, then expect scum to go along with a no lynch and screw themselves? That's ILLOGICAL. Why would scum shoot for that no lynch?

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

so do you want a no-lynch? because up till now, you havent claimed to do so, thus by your own admission, you are scum, right?

I prefer to lynch since we already have a pretty good chance at hitting scum. The details should already be listed on one of my previous posts.

By my own admission, I claimed that three of the five players on my list are scum. I do not remember placing myself on it. Other players will take themselves off their own lists instead of me so I can still possibly be scum to them. However, there is no reason why I should convince myself that I'm scum.

you aren't making sense dude. You said 'at LyLo, scum will push to lynch because it will help them win'. Then you do the exact same thing. If you are town, you would do well to follow your own advice. You yourself commented that whilst you know your own role, we don't, and as such, you oughtn't to be making our job harder, by acting as scummy as possible.

BM

[al_kohaulec]

What?

Isn't TCS dead? And like... confirmed as a cop?

I'm referring to this post.

EBWOP: Based on his play so far in all three games, I'm inclined to believe that TCS is town, but until I have time to look things over, I don't know what to say about his cop claim.

It's strange to believe TCS to be town, yet doubt the validity of his claim. The uncertainty seems to be a method of avoiding suspicion when the final result comes out. If TCS is scum, then you had reason enough to doubt his cop claim. If TCS was town, then you already proposed that you believed him to be town.

It was a long time ago that I said that, but IIRC, I was feeling he was likely to be town, based on his actions from this game and from the other two clue games. However, the way he chose to claim was not the best way to do so, or best time to do so IMO. That is why I wanted to look him over TCS's posts and his claim before finalizing my decision on whether or not his claim was legit and he really was town.

[chaotic_diablo]

BM, Do I really have to fill in all the gaps for you?

At Lylo, there are three scum members. Since we have a total eight players, mislynching a town will make us lose since scum will NK during the night and end the game. A ratio of 1 to 1 with scum to town. They don't even have to go on to the next day. In addition, longer games means there are more opportunities to slip-up. Scum will want to lynch as quickly as possible.

Since scum want a lynch, then that automatically means town will want to do the exact opposite, right? Not entirely. What town wants is to find scum and prevent a stalemate. No lynching achieves neither of those goals as I explained in post 297. In fact, I stated that it puts us in a full circle. As a result, town will want a lynch as well.

I'm following my own advice to the letter. If no lynching doesn't help, then obviously the only other answer is lynching. But lynching will help scum win, right? There are complications.
Scum need to lynch town. They can't just go with any lynch so it's perfectly fine for town to want a lynch as well. Just as long as that lynch is scum.

[Battle Mage]

ok, lets say we lynch today, and we hit scum. assuming the NK goes through, tomorrow we are left with:

4 town, 2 scum.
Surprise surprise, we are back at LyLo again. Again with an even number of players. And even if we managed to get lucky a second time consequtively:

3 town, 1 scum.
Still LyLo. Notice that the same is true if we No Lynch today, HOWEVER we have significantly better odds of hitting those 3 consequtive scum-lynches.

Now i don't mind us playing the day out if what you want is info. But lynching today is just plain dumb imo.

BM, Do I really have to fill in all the gaps for you?

At Lylo, there are three scum members. Since we have a total eight players, mislynching a town will make us lose since scum will NK during the night and end the game. A ratio of 1 to 1 with scum to town. They don't even have to go on to the next day. In addition, longer games means there are more opportunities to slip-up. Scum will want to lynch as quickly as possible.

Since scum want a lynch, then that automatically means town will want to do the exact opposite, right? Not entirely. What town wants is to find scum and prevent a stalemate. No lynching achieves neither of those goals as I explained in post 297. In fact, I stated that it puts us in a full circle. As a result, town will want a lynch as well.

I'm following my own advice to the letter. If no lynching doesn't help, then obviously the only other answer is lynching. But lynching will help scum win, right? There are complications.
Scum need to lynch town. They can't just go with any lynch so it's perfectly fine for town to want a lynch as well. Just as long as that lynch is scum.

[chaotic_diablo]

ok, lets say we lynch today, and we hit scum. assuming the NK goes through, tomorrow we are left with:

4 town, 2 scum.
Surprise surprise, we are back at LyLo again. Again with an even number of players. And even if we managed to get lucky a second time consequtively:

3 town, 1 scum.
Still LyLo. Notice that the same is true if we No Lynch today, HOWEVER we have significantly better odds of hitting those 3 consequtive scum-lynches.

Now i don't mind us playing the day out if what you want is info. But lynching today is just plain dumb imo.

Lynching scum is never dumb. However, everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

Who are your top suspects?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Sorry, I just got back from a mini-vacation. I'll read this game later.

[BillyTwilight]

ok, lets say we lynch today, and we hit scum. assuming the NK goes through, tomorrow we are left with:

4 town, 2 scum.
Surprise surprise, we are back at LyLo again. Again with an even number of players. And even if we managed to get lucky a second time consequtively:

3 town, 1 scum.
Still LyLo. Notice that the same is true if we No Lynch today, HOWEVER we have significantly better odds of hitting those 3 consequtive scum-lynches.

Now i don't mind us playing the day out if what you want is info. But lynching today is just plain dumb imo.

BM, Do I really have to fill in all the gaps for you?

At Lylo, there are three scum members. Since we have a total eight players, mislynching a town will make us lose since scum will NK during the night and end the game. A ratio of 1 to 1 with scum to town. They don't even have to go on to the next day. In addition, longer games means there are more opportunities to slip-up. Scum will want to lynch as quickly as possible.

Since scum want a lynch, then that automatically means town will want to do the exact opposite, right? Not entirely. What town wants is to find scum and prevent a stalemate. No lynching achieves neither of those goals as I explained in post 297. In fact, I stated that it puts us in a full circle. As a result, town will want a lynch as well.

I'm following my own advice to the letter. If no lynching doesn't help, then obviously the only other answer is lynching. But lynching will help scum win, right? There are complications.
Scum need to lynch town. They can't just go with any lynch so it's perfectly fine for town to want a lynch as well. Just as long as that lynch is scum.

I actually agree (gulp) with BM's logic here... but I see an even better reason to no lynch, and that's to get DoS back into the game. I'm assuming that since his enforced silence started at daybreak then it will end for tomorrow... and even if someone else is silenced at least will have what they said today and we can get DoS' take on the game tomorrow. That could be very important in who we decide to lynch.

[al_kohaulec]

BM, regardless of whether the numbers are 5 and 3, or 4 and 3, we are at lylo, and lynching will still put us at lylo. We still have a possibility of choosing a no lynch later in the game rather now. When our numbers are smaller, we'll be more sure of what we're up against, and we can make more informed decisions about lynching/no lynching, night actions and all that fun stuff. Right now with so many alive, I believe the right decision is to lynch.

[chaotic_diablo]

Let's end the no lynch argument. Start searching for scum, then we talk what to do after that. We still have several players who need to give some input.

[al_kohaulec]

I did some brief rereading, mostly on the more lurkerish players as they were faster to read.

I don't really have anything to say on BM and c_d yet...

CES, his replacement has done nothing yet, and all of CES's posts were either start-of-game random votes, merely a vote or FoS with now words, or one post saying we aren't getting off to a good start. I had to cross examine his posts with what was going on at the time, and there's very little to get a read off of him so this is a weak analysis, but his actions (though few), appear protown to me.

BillyTwilight I have marked off as town, but for reasons other than what c_d has mentioned, I don't agree with the reason c_d put forward.

DoS is gone and needs to be replaced, and I've had a little trouble reading him. I don't have anything concrete to say right now, but he's looking slightly scummy in my eyes.

dahen has been lurking and seemingly avoiding the game, It's hard to say whether this is protown for him or scummy, and although many of his excuses are probably pretty legit, I don't like them. He's not sitting easy with me, but he's more likely to be town than scum right now.

Ectomancer has seemed somewhat scummy, I'll have to do another reread to bring some stuff up later, but for now my vote's going to ecto. Until I do more rereading, the only other lynch I'm happy with ATM is DoS

Vote: Ectomancer

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm inclined to think that DoS is protown, as he's apparently been silenced, and usually when I see somebody silenced, it's because the scum used an ability. I don't think they would silence one of their own, so until he comes back and starts posting again, I'm not comfortable with a DoS lynch.

This game is hard because, as far as we've gone, nobody strongly stands out one way or the other.

I'm not a fan of No Lynch, so I'm wary of Battle Mage for voting it. I'm not sure if he's scum, though, because my train of thought gets routed through WIFOM Junction.

I also think the c_d is slightly scummy, but I can't explain why. Something about his play Day 2 bothers me, although I can't put my finger on what it is.

Man, reading through this game, TCS was the only person I was sure was scum. And of course, that was way off. I'm not sure how to feel.

[al_kohaulec]

Hmm... I forgot about the silencing part again. I'm adding that to my notes.

[Battle Mage]

let me get this straight. You don't have ANY suspicions, despite having recently read through the game? You have also decided against a No-Lynch?

I'll tell you how you should feel. fricking ashamed!

I'm not sure how to feel.

[chaotic_diablo]

CES, his replacement has done nothing yet, and all of CES's posts were either start-of-game random votes, merely a vote or FOS with now words, or one post saying we aren't getting off to a good start. I had to cross examine his posts with what was going on at the time, and there's very little to get a read off of him so this is a weak analysis, but his actions (though few), appear protown to me.

Let me go over his posts in chronological order:
1. He votes CD
2. Switches his vote to Jack
3. Votes Jack again without unvoting
4. FOSes Jack
5. Comments on the terrible night results
6. Votes MBL
7. FOSes BT

[al_kohaulec]

Pretty much, that alone doesn't mean much, but I also read parts of the game that were relevant with his posts which is where I got the best tell on him that I could get with what's out there.

[Haschel Cedricson]

let me get this straight. You don't have ANY suspicions, despite having recently read through the game? You have also decided against a No-Lynch?

I have suspicions. It's just very difficult to find solid evidence backing them. Yes, I would prefer a lynch today for ethical reasons. A chance to hit scum is almost always better than hoping for percentages to save us. Other people have said that they prefer a lynch today. I don't see you telling al_kohaulec to be ashamed.

At the moment, I actually think that al_kohaulec may be the lynch for the day, for advocating the lynch of a player that cannot speak. Is this an attempt to eliminate a player who cannot defend themselves?

Of course, as soon as I point that out, al_ko says to have forgotten about the silencing. If we believe him, then everything I said in the last paragraph is wrong. If we do, then that may be worth a vote.

FoS: al_kohaulec

.

[Battle Mage]

thats a startling coincidence. because tbh, i don't see Alkohaulec lurking in plain-sight, as you seem to be doing.

No-Lynch is the logical thing to do here. No arguments-its a straight fact.
On the other hand, i'm seeing so much scummy behaviour atm, i'm finding it harder to say, "lets give the scum another NK".

I believe it was C_D who wanted more discussion.

so

Vote: Hachel Cedricson

let me get this straight. You don't have ANY suspicions, despite having recently read through the game? You have also decided against a No-Lynch?

I have suspicions. It's just very difficult to find solid evidence backing them. Yes, I would prefer a lynch today for ethical reasons. A chance to hit scum is almost always better than hoping for percentages to save us. Other people have said that they prefer a lynch today. I don't see you telling al_kohaulec to be ashamed.

At the moment, I actually think that al_kohaulec may be the lynch for the day, for advocating the lynch of a player that cannot speak. Is this an attempt to eliminate a player who cannot defend themselves?

Of course, as soon as I point that out, al_ko says to have forgotten about the silencing. If we believe him, then everything I said in the last paragraph is wrong. If we do, then that may be worth a vote.

FoS: al_kohaulec

.

[al_kohaulec]

thats a startling coincidence. because tbh, i don't see Alkohaulec lurking in plain-sight, as you seem to be doing.

BM,

are

you talking about Cedricson here? He joined the game less than a week ago... and he's posted decently since he's got here.

Otherwise I don't see what this is referring to.

[Battle Mage]

thats a startling coincidence. because tbh, i don't see Alkohaulec lurking in plain-sight, as you seem to be doing.

BM,

are

you talking about Cedricson here? He joined the game less than a week ago... and he's posted decently since he's got here.

Otherwise I don't see what this is referring to.

of course i'm talking about Cedricson. Since he's got here- nearly a WEEK ago, he's posted nothing but fluff. He's tried to be decidedly neutral, and he's giving off an incredibly scummy vibe, unlike in Clue Mafia 2, where his analysis impressed me greatly.

Vote stands.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote Count

Ectomancer - (chaotic_diablo, al_kohaulec)

Battle Mage - (Ectomancer)
Haschel Cedricson - (Battle Mage)

[Haschel Cedricson]

It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch.

I prefer to lynch since we already have a pretty good chance at hitting scum. The details should already be listed on one of my previous posts.

Alright, I did a reread of al_ko and c_d. I do not like the above quotes, because c_d is stating that a no-lynch is good for the town, and then says that he wants a lynch, and then later says that it's okay to want to lynch scum.

Of course it's okay to want to lynch scum; that's how we avoid losing in this situation.

c_d is trying to confuse the issue by making it unclear what he wants to do. Lynch? Oh wait, here's a scenario why it's bad. No lynch? Here's a scenario why it's bad.

Furthermore, I don't think anybody at this point is guaranteed town, and I don't agree with his reasoning for taking BM off of the list. If it wasn't so obvious, I'd say that c_d and BM were partners.

Nevertheless, I feel comfortable enough with this to

Accuse: c_d

[chaotic_diablo]

HC, you have made a scum mistake. You left out the entirety of my posts and attempted to characterize them in the wrong way.

It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch.

Yes, I wrote this. However, this is not all of it.

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

The statement in it's complete form states that I'm referring to BM and why I chose to kick him off my list. It does nothing to say that "No lynching is good for town."

Alright, I did a reread of al_ko and c_d. I do not like the above quotes, because c_d is stating that a no-lynch is good for the town, and then says that he wants a lynch, and then later says that it's okay to want to lynch scum.

Here's the statements I said about a no lynch.

Lylo dictates that half of these players are scum. If we no lynch, then the next logical step for scum to do is kill off BM and keep our lists with as many targets as possible. That doesn't help us at all if we take a no lynch course unless we can slash off more players on the list.

We gain absolutely nothing from a no lynch.

Although flawed, there is direct sentence stating that a no lynch will NOT help town. In fact, I'm going to challenge you to provide evidence to your accusations. All of them.

c_d is trying to confuse the issue by

making it unclear what he wants to do.

Lynch? Oh wait, here's a scenario why it's bad. No lynch? Here's a scenario why it's bad.

I prefer to lynch since we already have a pretty good chance at hitting scum. The details should already be listed on one of my previous posts.

Alright, I did a reread of al_ko and c_d. I do not like the above quotes, because c_d is stating that a no-lynch is good for the town, and

then says that he wants a lynch,

and then later says that it's okay to want to lynch scum.

The statements you quoted directly states that I

prefer

a lynch, given that a no lynch doesn't help us. But what's this? You contradict yourself! All I had to do was bold some words.

Your accusation is also unclear. I want a lynch, then say that lynching scum is okay? What kind of accusation is that?

Furthermore, I don't think anybody at this point is guaranteed town, and I don't agree with his reasoning for taking BM off of the list. If it wasn't so obvious, I'd say that c_d and BM were partners.

BM is probably town given that scum wouldn't no lynch at a Lylo situation. Let's assume we are at Lylo, that means we can

semi-clear

BM from our list of eight players. I'll take myself off since I'm going to create my own list.

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.

I agree, no one is guranteed town. However, we can make educated guesses and remove players in order to find who scum is. We win by using our reasoning and logic skills, not through magic. If you feel that BM shouldn't be removed from the list, then provide reasoning. Please don't hide behind the "everyone could be scum" point of leverage. That's a sad excuse to base an objection on.

unaccuse/unvote

accuse HC

HC is scum with al_ko. I'm fairly certain. al_ko is definitely trying to cover for HC/CES and HC made a quick fos distancing on al_ko with crap reasoning.

[Battle Mage]

hmm. I'm now REALLY conflicted. Much as i think HC is prob scum, if he ISNT, we have probably lost the game.

Can everyone else weigh in with their opinions on HC?

BM