Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?

[Battle Mage]

arrogance?
lets try another tack then.
Ectomancer-how many scum do you think there are, and do you think we should no-lynch?

[Ectomancer]

At least 2, possibly 3. If conservative, we assume 3, then we no lynch. If we gamble and say there should only be 2, then we could get away with a lynch. No lynching if there is only 2 could be a poor move if we don't gain any knowledge during the night. Either way, we have to lynch tomorrow.

[chaotic_diablo]

hmm LyLo is a possibility i suppose, but i don't see why there are definitely going to be 3 scum, rather than 2. Still, if you think we are at LyLo, why aren't you campaigning for a No-Lynch?

Billy wouldn't campaign for one because he is sane.

you didn't ask to No Lynch. thats exactly my point. If you really believed we were in LyLo, you would be bright enough to realise that No-Lynching is the best policy in order to ensure a victory.

Ensure a victory? Please explain how. No lynching is more like stalling a loss.

Ecto, how is BM's aggressiveness toward Billy scummy?

[BillyTwilight]

hmm LyLo is a possibility i suppose, but i don't see why there are definitely going to be 3 scum, rather than 2. Still, if you think we are at LyLo, why aren't you campaigning for a No-Lynch?

Billy wouldn't campaign for one because he is sane.

you didn't ask to No Lynch. thats exactly my point. If you really believed we were in LyLo, you would be bright enough to realise that No-Lynching is the best policy in order to ensure a victory.

Ensure a victory? Please explain how. No lynching is more like stalling a loss

Thanks you, CD. No lynching is not a good option in LyLO. As for BM, I find it very suspicious that he wants to pursue a lynch of any player on such weak grounds as "you aren't very important to this game, anyway" when we could obviously be in a precarious situation.

[al_kohaulec]

I'm beginning to think this is the game I have the least grasp on. I keep thinking we have reason to suspect BM town, but that's one of the others, and keeps biasing my opinion on him.

Anyways, a quick glance at my notes makes me think we likely have 2 scum left, though it's possible That there is 2 mafia + SK or 1 mafia + 2 SK or something like that. But basically at the worst, there are 3 scum left IMO, but not all 3 on the same side.

I don't agree with a no lynch as it doesn't do anything to help us, and as has been mentioned, it is more of something to delay a loss.

I've got too weak of an understanding of this game compared to the other two to be able to understand where we stand right now, but BM's recent posting seems suspicious, and he'll be one of the first I look at when I have time to read the thread.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, how is BM's aggressiveness toward Billy scummy?

It felt a little out of character for BM to me. I think every game I've played in with BM he has been town. Is this BM scum behavior? I've noticed a tendency in other players to get more aggressive when they are scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Finding a replacement for CES.

[chaotic_diablo]

Ecto, how is BM's aggressiveness toward Billy scummy?

It felt a little out of character for BM to me. I think every game I've played in with BM he has been town. Is this BM scum behavior? I've noticed a tendency in other players to get more aggressive when they are scum.

Usually it's BM's logic that is usually in question. However, I don't really find suspicion in players who try to get someone they feel as scum lynched. BM did state many times that he found Billy scummy, so pushing for a Billy lynch even if unreasonable doesn't come off as scummy to me.

The aggressiveness is a good point though. It's not typical BM behavior to my knowledge.

[Battle Mage]

hmm LyLo is a possibility i suppose, but i don't see why there are definitely going to be 3 scum, rather than 2. Still, if you think we are at LyLo, why aren't you campaigning for a No-Lynch?

Billy wouldn't campaign for one because he is sane.

you didn't ask to No Lynch. thats exactly my point. If you really believed we were in LyLo, you would be bright enough to realise that No-Lynching is the best policy in order to ensure a victory.

Ensure a victory? Please explain how. No lynching is more like stalling a loss.

Ecto, how is BM's aggressiveness toward Billy scummy?

I'm very confused here. No Lynching, surely, is the best policy here, if we assume that this is LyLo. it increases our odds of hitting scum tomorrow.
we already have an SK dead, and the odds of another one are infinitely slim. If you think i'm getting aggressive, its probably a combination of severe inactivity, combined with a town who seems to be acting totally insane.

[al_kohaulec]

As far as our chances being "statistically better" I used to be all for that, but for one, we aren't even sure how many scum are left, and so we shouldn't try to speculate too much on what's statistically better. Also, I had a short discussion over my reasoning for this at Thespival, but statistically better is not always the wisest decision. Oftentimes the townie that get's offed is one that's as good as guaranteed, which leaves us with the same number of suspects and potential lynch targets, but eliminates a very helpful virtually confirmed voice for the town. My refusal to no lynch in a scenario where it would've given us better statistics helped me make the right decision on who to lynch based on what the other townie said. Otherwise I would've lynched wrong and lost the game.



And... there was something else I wanted to mention but forgot about... Hm...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Haschel Cedricson will be replacing CES. Please welcome him to the game!

[Battle Mage]

As far as our chances being "statistically better" I used to be all for that, but for one, we aren't even sure how many scum are left, and so we shouldn't try to speculate too much on what's statistically better. Also, I had a short discussion over my reasoning for this at Thespival, but statistically better is not always the wisest decision. Oftentimes the townie that get's offed is one that's as good as guaranteed, which leaves us with the same number of suspects and potential lynch targets, but eliminates a very helpful virtually confirmed voice for the town. My refusal to no lynch in a scenario where it would've given us better statistics helped me make the right decision on who to lynch based on what the other townie said. Otherwise I would've lynched wrong and lost the game.



And... there was something else I wanted to mention but forgot about... Hm...

is there a player in this game who fits the category of 'virtually confirmed'?

[dahen]

OK, I'm back. I requested replacement a month ago, but that message got stuck in my Outbox. I have been on vacation and work trips. I'm back to normal schedules now, which means that I will be active again. I'm a bit surprised over what's happened. I'll re-read and post some thoughts.

[al_kohaulec]

@BM

Right now there is nobody under that category, but even without an actual virtually confirmed townie, it's only reasonable to assume that the death(s) tonight will be that of town, and so once again will be one less townie member helping town and providing their own thoughts. Also, if we go from near lylo to absolute lylo (e.g. 6 players, 2 scum down to 5 players, 2 of which are scum), then you have to keep in mind it's essentially one mistake on one townie's part that costs the rest of the game. And with half of all the other players in the game against you (There's you, two other town, and two scum), there's a big enough chance that they will be able to trick or deceive you into voting for the wrong player.


All in all, there's really no reason to no lynch today.

[chaotic_diablo]

I reread the posts dealing with TCS's claim.

Right after TCS's claim, BM immediately fos TCS and states that we are unlikely to have 2 cops. However, a check in the front page states that Ancalogan was a "Clue Finder", not a cop. Since Jack turned up "Tracker", which is a basic role title, there should be no way Clue Finder could be a cop. Otherwise it would be named "Cop". This is something we should have probably picked up from the beginning.

BM tried to create a grey area between TCS and MBL as possible lynch targets. He consistently states that he believes TCS to be scummy and MBL as unscummy and even refused TCS the benefit of a doubt. However, he quickly changes his opinion and suddenly agrees with Billy that TCS isn't scum.

Ectomancer's respose to the claim is significantly scummy. Instead of choosing to believe or disbelieve the claim, he insteads opts to lynch a potential innocent then lynch TCS when the result falls flat. This sounds like scum trying to lynch as many people as possible.

DOS just believes TCS's claim without stating any reasons. His post is too general to make any conclusion.

al_ko believes TCS to be town, but isn't so sure that he's cop. Is this scum trying to stick to neutral ground?

Billy had it out for MBL for a while. I'm sure TCS only piled on more fuel.

dahen's response is similiar to Ectomancer's, except it has a few more details pushed in. In addition, dahen believes TCS's claim, but would rather lynch him instead of give him a sanity doubt if MBL turns up town.

So my top three goes like this:
1. Ectomancer
2. dahen
3. al_ko

Any thoughts?

[al_kohaulec]

al_ko believes TCS to be town, but isn't so sure that he's cop. Is this scum trying to stick to neutral ground?

What?

Isn't TCS dead? And like... confirmed as a cop?


As for the cluefinder, I think I have an idea on it, but I'm not sure how much speculation I should do on it, not that it matters much for this game since our cluefinder is dead, so I don't think I will. (My worries are for the other games.)

[chaotic_diablo]

What?

Isn't TCS dead? And like... confirmed as a cop?

I'm referring to this post.

EBWOP: Based on his play so far in all three games, I'm inclined to believe that TCS is town, but until I have time to look things over, I don't know what to say about his cop claim.

It's strange to believe TCS to be town, yet doubt the validity of his claim. The uncertainty seems to be a method of avoiding suspicion when the final result comes out. If TCS is scum, then you had reason enough to doubt his cop claim. If TCS was town, then you already proposed that you believed him to be town.

[Battle Mage]

@BM

Right now there is nobody under that category, but even without an actual virtually confirmed townie, it's only reasonable to assume that the death(s) tonight will be that of town, and so once again will be one less townie member helping town and providing their own thoughts. Also, if we go from near lylo to absolute lylo (e.g. 6 players, 2 scum down to 5 players, 2 of which are scum), then you have to keep in mind it's essentially one mistake on one townie's part that costs the rest of the game. And with half of all the other players in the game against you (There's you, two other town, and two scum), there's a big enough chance that they will be able to trick or deceive you into voting for the wrong player.


All in all, there's really no reason to no lynch today.

look, even if we are lucky enough to lynch scum today, we still need to No Lynch tomorrow, to ensure best odds of hitting scum. The only possible reason i can think of for no-lynching, is if we are certain that we have a Doc (who can prevent an NK). However, aside from this, No-Lynching seems the best policy to me.

Vote: No Lynch

[chaotic_diablo]

vote ectomancer

[al_kohaulec]

BM, statistically better chances are good for completely random lynches, we are

not

randomly lynching. (At least I hope we aren't)

I'll get to your post later c_d.

[Battle Mage]

well know, but in this game, i'd rather put my faith in maths than a town who's commitment in general has been doubtful.

[BillyTwilight]

Reread the entire game, and I am really at a loss here. It's just too damn short to be in the position we are in. A lot of players have so few posts its hard to figure anything out about them; dahen for instance, has been almost completely silent, with only 8 posts.

I'd really like to think that BM is scum, but I can't help but believe that he's just had some illogical play. I am suspicious of alko, but it's mostly gut and I can't put a finger on it. There simply isn't enough information in the thread to get a clear picture about anyone in the game. I'm beginning to lean towards BM's way of thinking and to vote no lynch, but I hate no lynches on principal. I'm frustrated.

[chaotic_diablo]

BM is probably town given that scum wouldn't no lynch at a Lylo situation. Let's assume we are at Lylo, that means we can semi-clear BM from our list of eight players. I'll take myself off since I'm going to create my own list.

al_kohaulec
BillyTwilight
Haschel Cedricson (replacing Cogito Ergo Sum)
dahen
DragonsofSummer
Ectomancer

Lylo dictates that half of these players are scum. If we no lynch, then the next logical step for scum to do is kill off BM and keep our lists with as many targets as possible. That doesn't help us at all if we take a no lynch course unless we can slash off more players on the list. We gain absolutely nothing from a no lynch.

Let's assume that the doc is successful. We still get nothing. You know why? BM is the target. Killing anyone else will put scum in more danger and a doc going WIFOM to protect someone else is only going to hurt town. A full circle.

So I'll make my list shorter. I'm slashing BT for even considering BM's no lynch policy.

al_kohaulec
Haschel Cedricson (replacing Cogito Ergo Sum)
dahen
DragonsofSummer
Ectomancer

I need some input before I slash off more players.

[Battle Mage]

rofl. Much as i appreciate being called 'confirmed town', i can't say i agree with your logic on that. Imo, both town AND scum should be pushing for a No-Lynch here. I'm probably being dumb, but i cant see how anything else is logical here. I'm playing ALOT of games atm, and this is one of the few in which there is little case for me being confirmed protown.
Yet you seem to have thrown me to the proverbial lions.
Why?
BM

BM is probably town given that scum wouldn't no lynch at a Lylo situation. Let's assume we are at Lylo, that means we can semi-clear BM from our list of eight players. I'll take myself off since I'm going to create my own list.

al_kohaulec
BillyTwilight
Haschel Cedricson (replacing Cogito Ergo Sum)
dahen
DragonsofSummer
Ectomancer

Lylo dictates that half of these players are scum. If we no lynch, then the next logical step for scum to do is kill off BM and keep our lists with as many targets as possible. That doesn't help us at all if we take a no lynch course unless we can slash off more players on the list. We gain absolutely nothing from a no lynch.

Let's assume that the doc is successful. We still get nothing. You know why? BM is the target. Killing anyone else will put scum in more danger and a doc going WIFOM to protect someone else is only going to hurt town. A full circle.

So I'll make my list shorter. I'm slashing BT for even considering BM's no lynch policy.

al_kohaulec
Haschel Cedricson (replacing Cogito Ergo Sum)
dahen
DragonsofSummer
Ectomancer

I need some input before I slash off more players.

[chaotic_diablo]

At Lylo, scum will push for a lynch because it will help them win. What part of that logic do you not understand? You randomly state that our odds of hitting scum will be higher if we no lynch, then expect scum to go along with a no lynch and screw themselves? That's ILLOGICAL. Why would scum shoot for that no lynch?

You are not confirmed town. I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt. It's simple, scum want a lynch, you want a no lynch. Immediate differentiation.