13p Normal [TM2015]

[Zachrulez]

VOTE: SleepyKrew

Should have done this too. Didn't realize the deadline's in three days.

[SleepyKrew]

wtf zach

[Zachrulez]

I found Pie's points convincing enough to follow her, along with her track record.

Anyway...

3 days
Alright
Today will be gear-kicking day

Who's scum?

[SleepyKrew]

how the fuck should I know
I'll give you my best shitty guess later today though

[Egg]

Guys, sorry I was dickish about my V/LA and the fucking off thing. Sthar's posts haven't even been anything that should bother me, but I let it get to me because of BS going on at work. But yeah, I'm back and in a better mood.

It does support SK-town though. It makes the most sense for a scum RB to target town in case they did get tracked.

Well no shit scum will target town. But the point is maybe she didn't target Sleepykrew. Because, you know, her claim was fake and all. I mean, claiming to target Sleepykrew was part of what made her claim so awkward so maybe she didn't go through and pick a fake target that makes sense and just went with her real target but that's got so many levels of WIFOM to it that even I don't want to deal with it. By the way, Cheet thinks this post is a town slip because you said RB and she was actually a rolecop. I don't entirely agree because I wouldn't put it past you to forget a scumbuddy's role and it's possible you had STD's flip on your mind. I still think you are town, but this isn't a town slip in my eyes. What does everyone else think?

Assuming. That she knew. The interactions of a roleblocker. is not. safe.

I'm with Pie on most of the Mala stuff, but this is actually a fair point from sthar. If mala didn't know a tracker couldn't catch her in a lie, she'd probably still claim her real target. And Sleepykrew was a weird choice for a claimed vig target from her. Still no reason to clear Sleepykrew though because it requires assumptions. Sleepykrew's Thor vote is a better reason to town read him. Although I'd still like his definition of opportunism.

I'll catch up fully soon.

[Trojan Horse]

Sleepykrew's Thor vote is a better reason to town read him.

I have reasons to read SK as town, but that's not one of them. That could've just been part of a "one scum votes for Thor, one scum doesn't vote for Thor" trick.

No more posts from me until tonight. I really shouldn't be doing this at work.

[Boonskiies]

Pie's list is going to crap. The skrew case is fine, but egg/myself are Towny mc town town. My teammates feel egg is scum, but pie is the one who convinced me that egg was town. Wtf.

[sthar8]

but not that x-shots wouldn't get refunds, as it's a recent change.

Really? Has anyone ever encountered a game in which a RB-d power got their shot back? I thought they were about the same level of logical.

I don't really think this is scummy. a lot of the time, this just ends up being a coincidence more than anything (similar to what I said earlier in the game about someone ignoring scum never seems to actually make it more likely they're scum with them). off the top of my head, I know Micc did something similar near game start and was town - it's not exactly the same, but there's still him having a few vague thoughts but not having a read either way.

It's not that the thoughts are vague and the read isn't there, it's how formulaic it is. He had a ton of 'here's a reason i think they're scum, here's a reason I think they're town.' I could see that indecision coming up a little, but he had that on a bunch of different players. I think he was trying to play both sides of the field in case of future flips.

with this point, I still don't really understand what exactly you think he was trying to do. what scum would put all the effort into saving their partner - and then, when deadline hits and their partner isn't getting lynched, go "fuck it" and hammer him anyway?

It fits with the hammer being a frustration move. He tried all the subtle ways to move the wagon, bringing in new suspects, trying for a flashwagon, waving about deadline paranoia. Then town still didn't move, and he's stuck having been a big detractor from a scumwagon that was either going to go through then, or be the obvious wagon the next day. If we no-lynched and hit thor the next day, everybody knows he was around at deadline and refused to hammer, coupled with trying to derail the wagon earlier.

I personally think Egg has done a fair amount of scum hunting so far, although you probably disagree.

yeah

it makes equally as much sense IMO that this is coming from town-Egg thinking Boon is scum trying to convince me to join him on Boon, rather than scum-Egg searching for reasons to not vote his partner. I'm not sure what in here you think is explicitly more likely to come from scum than town in this position.

That's possible, but to me it reads like "give me any reason to not vote mala, and I will jump on it.

I think the push on jason actually looks town, for behavioral reasons explained in my recent posts.

My opinion is the opposite. Jason-lynch would be a huge victory for scum. If it were me I would never have let up on a PR mistake here. It's easy to justify and the value is huge compared to the risk.

and you have to admit that despite thinking Egg is scum, there is a *lot* of suspicion on him right now - you, I to some extent was thinking Egg might be scum although I'm rapidly being convinced it's just SK, and most of the people off the wagon would likely vote there - so he would be a very easy target to push *if* he is town here.

Sure. If egg were town being the key assumption here.

[Nexus]

Votecount 4.4:

SleepyKrew (2)-

pieguyn, Zachrulez

Egg (1)-

sthar8

Trojan Horse (1)-

Boonskiies

sthar8 (1)-

Trojan Horse

Not voting (3)-

Egg, DeltaWave, SleepyKrew

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is at 6pm GMT on Saturday 16th May 2015. (expired on 2015-05-16 13:00:00)

[pieguyn]

I'm with Pie on most of the Mala stuff, but this is actually a fair point from sthar. If mala didn't know a tracker couldn't catch her in a lie, she'd probably still claim her real target.

no, it isn't. and even if it was, it's correct that it's still a bad assumption to make

mastin points out that you are likely getting lynched today if SK doesn't happen. join me on SK?

Pie's list is going to crap. The skrew case is fine, but egg/myself are Towny mc town town. My teammates feel egg is scum, but pie is the one who convinced me that egg was town. Wtf.

???
I have both of you as town. if you meant my one post, that's me saying mastin wants both of you to sheep her.

[pieguyn]

Really? Has anyone ever encountered a game in which a RB-d power got their shot back? I thought they were about the same level of logical.

no, they're not

mastin told me to tell you to go [expletive] yourself over this, btw. there is a distinct difference, which she actually argued with N about, but got overruled on:

-if a RB prevents the action from happening, the player gets a refund bc the action never happened. she used this in Maniacal Street Mafia.
-if a RB makes an action fail, the player doesn't get a refund bc they did use it, it just failed

she got overruled on this for simplicity's sake, and wanted this explanation to be included on the wiki, but it got left out

either way, it doesn't change the fact that blocked players not visiting has been the long-standing principle since well before Mala even joined the site - and thus that it would be common knowledge - nor the fact that it's a really shit assumption for clearing someone

It's not that the thoughts are vague and the read isn't there, it's how formulaic it is. He had a ton of 'here's a reason i think they're scum, here's a reason I think they're town.' I could see that indecision coming up a little, but he had that on a bunch of different players. I think he was trying to play both sides of the field in case of future flips.

the obvious conclusion here is that it's more based on playstyle than anything alignment-indicative

I know for a fact that I do this all the time as town (see: that jason case I made near the start of this game which you scum read me for, as one example, but it happens a lot in my town games). some players consider it better to objectively take into account all the evidence, going both ways, when forming reads.

It fits with the hammer being a frustration move. He tried all the subtle ways to move the wagon, bringing in new suspects, trying for a flashwagon, waving about deadline paranoia. Then town still didn't move, and he's stuck having been a big detractor from a scumwagon that was either going to go through then, or be the obvious wagon the next day. If we no-lynched and hit thor the next day, everybody knows he was around at deadline and refused to hammer, coupled with trying to derail the wagon earlier.

except if it *did* go through the next day, the way he was arguing against it wouldn't have been scummy

he had already made it clear that he had no interest in lynching Thor on D1. not hammering Thor isn't inconsistent with this. there is nothing about that series of events that would have been more likely to come from scum than town - it either would have been town-Egg who in this case happened to be wrong (and hey, even *if* Egg is scum here, DW would have had basically the exact same stance as town? so this is testimony to what I'm saying here) or scum-Egg not hammering a partner. there's nothing scummy there.

and besides, it's not even a given that Thor would have been wagoned on D2 - it is likely he could have came back, posted up a storm, and got out of it, especially if they killed someone like STD or me N1 instead of Fenchurch

and additionally, the other problem with this is what I've been saying this whole time: no lynch for scum on D1 is fundamentally the same as a mislynch. if Egg was trying to get a mislynch in, he wouldn't have had any problem just letting the day run into a NL - and if Egg *did* get a mislynch in, everything you're saying about him would apply on D2 anyway.

attempting to derail the Thor lynch and not hammering him at deadline are one and the same. it's idiotic scum play to behave otherwise

My opinion is the opposite. Jason-lynch would be a huge victory for scum. If it were me I would never have let up on a PR mistake here. It's easy to justify and the value is huge compared to the risk.

OK

so

suppose Egg is scum here and is trying to force the jason lynch through. now look at what's going on in the game.

jason has a total of..... 0..... votes on him. oh wait, Egg isn't even voting jason. really good job forcing that mislynch through there, amirite?

and on top of that, basically everyone in the game is now reading jason-slot as town - so, how does scum-Egg intend on getting 5 votes out of basically nowhere to lynch jason, and to what extent is he trying to convince people over this?

also, even if what you're saying was correct, I happen to think that "attempting to force an important mislynch through, and then awkwardly backtracking on it when it becomes obvious it won't happen and that you'll be placed under scrutiny - from people like yourself - for continuing to push it" is more scummy than "attempting to force an important mislynch through and not letting up on it"

Sure. If egg were town being the key assumption here.

if you're going to consider that anyone else is scum, you can assume Egg is town for it, since there's only 1 scum left

[DeltaWave]

I don't understand why this argument is happening. Is it important for some reason?

[pieguyn]

some people think SK is town bc of Mala claiming to target him - which is objectively wrong and I do not want people operating under that assumption

unless you mean my post towards sthar, in which case it's just bc I don't think Egg is scum

[Trojan Horse]

some people think SK is town bc of Mala claiming to target him - which is objectively wrong and I do not want people operating under that assumption

If anyone is still thinking that, please stop. I proposed that because I was under the misconception that roleblocked actions would still be trackable.

Two days to deadline. We need to converge on someone soon.

when sthar voted Thor it was basically just me and STD who were suspecting Thor and that was all there was to it - no one else was interested in wagoning him. sthar's vote served to give the wagon the momentum it needed to actually become a viable lynch, at a point where it was (as STD said) dead in the water. if he didn't vote it, I probably couldn't have got it lynched

on the other hand, there was a lot of general suspicion directed towards Mala on D2, plus I was pushing her a lot harder than I pushed Thor. I likely would have been able to lynch her, or get her relatively close to being lynched, without his vote. it would make sense he would vote her sooner rather than later as scum in order to get the most town cred possible off it.

I do take the Mala vote as a minor point in his favor, but at this point POE points to him and I (and mastin) have stronger evidence for him being scum.

I'm still not buying it. SK voted for Mala really early in the day: about seven hours after day started. You and STD were both on Mala, but you had only started making your case against Mala. Mala didn't seem to be in any serious danger yet. If SK really thought he needed to bus his buddy right then and there, then SK is a pretty nervous scum.

Hmm. Let's try this:

SK, are your teammates giving you any reads right now?

Delta, same question.

[Egg]

Pie, I'm still not caught up first of all. But you aren't likely to get my vote on Sleepykrew unless it's deadline compromise. Hell, at this point I'm not even sure self preservation is enough of a reason. I think Sleepykrew is town and I'm not sure what the odds are he survives later in the game if I'm lynched today.

Actually, I see deadline is in two days. And I don't think anyone with votes is scum. Fuck. Ummm. I'll have a vote by the end of this RL day

[SleepyKrew]

Uggghhhh I fell asleep unexpectedly yesterday
TODAY
I SWEAR ON QUILFORD'S EVER BEATING HEART

[Zachrulez]

If it's not SK, Delta would be my next pick.

I'm having a hard time seeing 1914 coming from scum.

[Egg]

. . . . . . .

if you're really going to base assumptions on the notion that people just don't have common sense, I have no interest in continuing this conversation any further. but hey, not the first time you've done this this game

How is that common sense? Not everyone plays a lot of normals. It's not something that everyone should know. Sthar also doesn't seem to be assuming anything. Really, you're the one assuming Mala would have known. I personally don't think we can assume Mala did or did not know.

Trojan, don't you think sthar as scum would have switched to voting you Day 1 and blamed me for the mislynch assuming you are town? Why would sthar stay on Thor at that point unless he was town who was sure of his read? Why let it go to no lynch like I was threatening to do when he could get a mislynch? The only way it makes sense for sthar to be scum there is if you are scum too which doesn't add up (4 scum in a 13p).

Pie, tell Mastin (regarding reasons for town reading me) I will never understand the logic Mastin uses to read me. I actually don't see what about that post reads as being genuine. Like my interactions with dead scum should be the biggest reason I'm town. I wouldn't hammer Thor at the last second or vote Mala when I did as scum. I don't bus pointlessly. If I do it, it's with good reason.

That's possible, but to me it reads like "give me any reason to not vote mala, and I will jump on it.

If this was the case, I wouldn't have voted Mala when I did. I'd have continued pushing Boon.

Guys, I'm kind of stuck right now. I think either Zach or Boon is scum. So out of the people being voted right now, it should basically come down to who is more likely to be mislynched later which would be me. I don't want to self vote because that's shitty to do, but strategically speaking I'm probably the best lynch because me being alive is such a distraction from scumhunting. Remove my slot and people can start scumhunting for real knowing I was town. There's no interest in lynching Zach and probably no time for Boon and I don't want to start a fifth wagon two days before deadline. I just don't know what to do at this point. If this wasn't Team Mafia and such a big game, I'd self vote because my lynch helps town more than Sleepykrew, sthar, or Trojan. I mean I really don't see Sleepykrew being scum. Maybe he hasn't helped much. I dunno. Sthar just isn't scum. But he's tunneling a shit ton and has been abrasive and I wouldn't mind him not being in the game. And Trojan is just so obvtown there's no reason to lynch him. I really don't want to policy lynch on Day 4 but there's just no way we are lynching scum today. I really think I'm the best lynch.

*sigh*

Give me time to think and I'll have a vote down later. I'm caught up though.

[Trojan Horse]

Trojan, don't you think sthar as scum would have switched to voting you Day 1 and blamed me for the mislynch assuming you are town? Why would sthar stay on Thor at that point unless he was town who was sure of his read? Why let it go to no lynch like I was threatening to do when he could get a mislynch? The only way it makes sense for sthar to be scum there is if you are scum too which doesn't add up (4 scum in a 13p).

If sthar is scum, then at that point, he has pretty much committed to the "one scum on Thor, one scum off Thor" strategy. Think about how it would've looked if he switched to me at the last minute, after pushing so hard against Thor. If Thor ever gets lynched, then sthar is toast.

Would sthar let it go to no lynch if he was scum? Sure, because a no lynch would've been good for scum. Would we have lynched sthar for letting a no lynch happen? Probably not, since he wouldn't have been the only one to blame for that. Plus, if Thor gets lynched later, then sthar looks town for staying on Thor.

I do have some doubts here, but my doubts are because of how sthar jumped ONTO the Thor bandwagon. It doesn't look like a normal bus.

[Egg]

No, he could have gotten away with it by saying there was no way I was moving and it was all my fault.

A mislynch helps scum more than a no lynch does. A no lynch is better for scum than a scum lynch.

Sthar is town. I might not think sol if Thor had flipped town. But sthar is town. That's obvious to me.

[Trojan Horse]

Uggghhhh I fell asleep unexpectedly yesterday
TODAY
I SWEAR ON QUILFORD'S EVER BEATING HEART

SleepyKrew is living up to his username...

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, confession time. I haven't been honest with you guys today.

After I made this post...

Sleepykrew's Thor vote is a better reason to town read him.

I have reasons to read SK as town, but that's not one of them. That could've just been part of a "one scum votes for Thor, one scum doesn't vote for Thor" trick.

No more posts from me until tonight. I really shouldn't be doing this at work.

... I went back to work, but I couldn't keep myself from thinking about the game. Pie, your arguments against SK were starting to sway me at that point. I was starting to picture SK as scum. But I decided to hold back my newfound suspicions.

Why hold back? I was curious as to what SK would do next. I figured I'd wait until he cast another vote. I was hoping I'd be able to tell the difference between SKtown voting for a scumread, and SKscum voting out of self-preservation.

Unfortunately, SK hasn't done anything, and time is running out. I don't think I can wait any longer; I'm just going to take a shot at this.

UNVOTE: sthar
VOTE: SleepyKrew

[Trojan Horse]

From the end of day 1, when the lynch was obviously going to be Thor or me:

Well shit deadline's probably going to hit before I wake up and I'm still not right in the head. I think a TH lynch is the best viable option. Going to go pull up the stuff that set my teammates' scumdars off.

Universal hatred for 539.

Also Quil said the way Trojan went about his early interactions with me (about me not RVSing) reminded him of scum Trojan, and Reck was on board with that.

He said TH likes to strawman as scum, and that the way he was oversimplifying and misrepresenting the game seemed to fit the bill.

At the time, Oversoul told me he thought this looked like SK trying to protect his buddy. When SK switched to Thor, I threw out that theory. Maybe my teammate was right all along, and SK just changed his mind and bussed Thor.

[sthar8]

I'm having a hard time reconciling 'survivalist game' with 'lurking through his own wagon.'

[DeltaWave]

Delta, same question.

No, but I asked them for some reads. My prediction is that GreyICE is going to call sthar scum, and I'm probably going to disagree. But let's see how it pans out.

Reviewing the case on SK now.