Princess Bride Mafia - Game Over

[mathcam]

And I really doubt that's the end of the mafia.

Agreed. We've only killed two mafia. Two mafia and a serial killer isn't a lot for 19 players...especially when there's at least a cop, a doc, and a backup doc in the game. There's either another clan, more of the original mafia, or multiple serial killers with strong restrictions on killing.

I guess my suspicions are leaning a little toward Dourgrim...the "Go hard after someone (in this case, Someone) and then back down gracefully" plan I find to be mafia-esque...especially the new evidence "clearing" Someone is pretty flimsy. I also kind of found suspicious the "At least we know we have a Doc around" . there are several other ways we could have no kill last night...by choice of the mafia, by restriction of the mafia, by a role-blocker...,

plus

we've already lost two docs...it seems somewhat unlikely to me that we have another. It seems like only the mafia would

know

there was another doc around (after two had already died), because they tried to submit a night kill but it didn't go through.

With that,

Vote: Dourgrim

Cam

[massive]

I guess my suspicions are leaning a little toward Dourgrim

and your post certainly has me looking a little harder at him. His demeanor towards Someone was the big reason, since when you say

It seems like only the mafia would know there was another doc around ... because they tried to submit a night kill but it didn't go through.

Well, that's what it said to me, but I'm not as experienced as you. But you give good points about WHY to suspect Dourgrim, and since the last two days have been so easy thanks to DP, there's little suspiciousness to go around.

vote Dourgrim

[Someone]

Vote:dourgrim

I don't really think that his post about me was too scummy (but then again, i'm probably a little bit biased :wink). But, the Dourgrim was guilty in my eyes before this point. I really didn't see how I was giving off scummy vibes before. Dourgrim was making something out of nothing.

And some food for thought, why the attempt on my life, on the part of the mafia? I was in danger of being lynched anyways, why didn't they take the life of someone else and leave me to die at the hands of the town?

[Someone]

yea, and the wink was supposed to be

[Werebear]

If we're correct, Someone, the mafia left you alone... it was the SK trying to take you out, probably hoping you were mafia.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Correct play for a SK is NOT to take out mafia until late in the game (IS).

Dourgrim is not on my list of innocents, so let's increase the pressure:

vote Dourgrim

[Dourgrim]

*blink*

Wow... way to read things into what was intended to be speculation, folks. Did you happen to notice the "?" after the "maybe they're all dead" comment? Sheesh...

OK, people, let's go over this nice and slow. There are two reasons I said there's still a Doc around:

• 1. There was no Mafia kill last Night, and I too do not firmly believe we've eliminated all of them (hence the "?" referenced above). Therefore, someone stopped the kill. Yes, it could've been a role-blocker, but my first, natural thought was (and still is) that a Doc successfully protected whoever the Mafia targetted. Seems like common sense to me. Some mods have evidence of an attempted kill appear, some don't. If MeMe does not, then this is a perfectly reasonable theory.
  
  2. Someone survived an attack from a ROUS last Night. Once again, surviving the attack could indicate a Doc's presence, especially since many of you believed that Someone was "confirmed" innocent... it makes sense for the scum to want to get rid of those. And maybe MeMe
  does
  put evidence of failed kills in the thread (I don't know, because this is the first game I've ever played in of hers)... in which case this is also a valid theory.

Both of these seem to be likely possibilities to me... common sense.

And I'm "backing down graciously" regarding Someone because at this point the evidence seems to indicate to me that Someone was telling the truth about his role. In short: I now think I was wrong about him. *gasp!* Heaven forbid I change my mind or admit to being wrong in a game of Mafia!

And to address what DP said: I don't know what you hope to accomplish by "increasing the pressure", but I still am not going to waste my time role-claiming. I went after and helped successfully lynch Count Rugen, for God's sake, and now suddenly everyone's back to thinking I'm scum... whatever.

[Dragon Phoenix]

unvote Dourgrim

I did not want a role claim, but a post. My gut feeling based on this post is that you're not scum. Of course, my gut has been proven wrong before...

[mole]

Finally, someone with the sense not to roleclaim in response to any threat at all... :)

Anyway, I believe him. I've read over the situation two days ago with him and mlaker, and it doesn't seem like they were acting together at all.

[Norinel]

I was in one of Meme's previous games (Mini 32), and she didn't give public evidence of failed kills. Of course, she might change this from game to game or even from killer to killer. Perhaps a failed ROUS kill would be revealed (Due to the obviousness of a festering leg wound, or that it might do something else.), and a failed mafia kill wouldn't. Or perhaps wounding without killing is a different ability of the ROUS.

[mathcam]

I'm convinced for the time-being, but for the sake of argument, it seems like you're arguing there should be

two

docs left, not just one. One that protected Someone, and one that averted the mafia kill. That's a lot of docs.

Unvote: Dourgrim

Cam

[Werebear]

My only problem is -- we had a doc killed, and a back-up doc. I'm not sure how many docs can fit in a game this size... I wonder if the mafia can recruit instead of kill..

[Sugar]

I wonder if the mafia can recruit instead of kill..

That's possible of course, but nothing in the movie (i haven't read the book in years, so I don't remember it as well) makes me think this is likely. It seems good/bad is consistently separate throughout. But just the possibility is really disturbing.

I've got 6 players of whose innocence I'm almost sure, and Dragon Phoenix should have 2. I'll just go ahead and throw this out in case something happens to me tonight... I got a bonus bit of information about a player's innocence during one of the game nights. If DP's 2 innocents are different than the one I got, and if anybody else in the game got bonus innocent info... we might be able to seriously narrow down the possible scum list.
I've been going back and forth on revealing this, as it definitely opens the door to scum "revealing" fake bonus innocent info about their buddies. However, I suppose any of those potential claims would and should be ignored, unless the revealer manages to get on an "innocent" list.
DP, do you have any thoughts on what's next?

At this point, I'm going to

vote: Werebear

. Just a hunch, nothing concrete.

[Norinel]

I got a bonus bit of information about a player's innocence during one of the game nights.

Perhaps that's a little like the role of the illiterate priest from one of the designer mafias, who could investigate another player but had to send the result to someone different, or some way of a specific role proving its innocence or something. I haven't got anything along those lines, unless Meme is a horrible mod who doesn't send replacements everything their previous incarnation got from her.

[MeMe]

Fishbulb 2 replaces CRiX effective immediately.

[Dourgrim]

I'm convinced for the time-being, but for the sake of argument, it seems like you're arguing there should be

two

docs left, not just one. One that protected Someone, and one that averted the mafia kill. That's a lot of docs.

I was not implying that there are two Docs... I merely gave two examples of events that could indicate the presence of a Doc, and I feel it's reasonable to assume that at least one of those two possibilities is correct. Let me reiterate, just for clarity's sake: I have no concrete information whatsoever to indicate the presence (or lack thereof) of a Doc alive in the game.

[MeMe]

I Like to

Count:

Dourgrim

(2):

massive, Someone

Werebear

(1):

Sugar

Not voting (10):

everyone else

[Dragon Phoenix]

I think that at this stage (13 left) it's wise to list our innocents. Unless there are compelling arguments not to do so, I will name the 2 I investigated the 2 last nights. Anybody else who has that kind of information should probably do so as well.

[Dourgrim]

Well, personally, I think it's dangerous to start listing innocents with this many people left in the game... we confirm a few innocents between any investigations that we may have, and all we do is create a list of targets for the scum. Unless we have a

ton

of innocents (like all the players in the game but two or three), it's a singularly bad idea at this stage of the game. Hang on to those confirmed innocents until later in the game when it'll be easier to narrow down the number of suspects, and then you can use that list to guarantee a Town win. Reveal too early and the scum can pick them off one by one...

Of course, this is only my opinion... the rest of the Town should weigh in on this too.

[Dragon Phoenix]

There is still the possibliity that those of us who know get killed the coming night(s). Minor inconvenience, I'm sure.

[Dourgrim]

Sarcasm duly noted, DP ( )... but it's a valid point. We do run the risk of investigators taking those results to their graves, but I still think it's a better plan than pointing out nice juicy targets for the scum. Besides, what's to prevent someone from coming up with bogus "investigations" to make himself (or his cohorts) look innocent?

[rite]

Coming out with innocents would necissitate a role claim. In a themed game like this, there are only a limited number of players who could be conceivably a cop... granted, we've already had our issues with the Priest and Old Booer, but I think it's going to get increasingly harder and harder to role-claim.

Not sure if I want it down now, but today or tomorrow will probably be time for forking our results over.

[Fishbulb]

I don't see the problem with coming forward with the innocents. With Sugar and DP, we'll have three. Sure the scum will probably take them out first, but it will take them a few days and we'll narrow down the hunt in the meantime (and adding one more to the list nightly from DP). The scum will take out an innocent whether or not we all think they are innocent.

I think, mathematically, this will come out to our advantage. 13 possible - 7 innocents (DP + 3 confirmed townies + DP's 2 + Sugar's 1) = 6 suspects. We lynch one of the 6, they kill one of our innocents, and DP clears another. Then we will have 11 possible - 7 innocents (7 from before - 1 dead + new DP innocent) = 4 suspects. In short, we will lose 2 a day, but one will be moved from the suspect pool to the innocent pool. We will always be ahead.

See what I am getting at? It won't be a quick revelation, but we will come out ahead. And most likely, we will get lucky during the lynchings or DP's investigations.

Now, if anyone sees a flaw here, I'm not saying we put this plan in motion, yet. Please don't disclose the innocents unless we can all agree on this. If I am missing something, it could be detrimental (as others' have suggested) to give scum confirmed innocents.

Oh, and hello again everyone! *waves*

[massive]

I think that at this stage (13 left) it's wise to list our innocents.

I agree, I think that we're to where it'll make a difference. I was looking at the numbers earlier today, and it's getting tight. We already know that there are three generic townies, which means depending on the number of Mafia left, there are either six (most likely I think) or seven pro-town named roles left. If we can work through three or four of them, we narrow our lynch selection candidates down quite seriously.

Well, hrm, hang on. I'm not so much concerned as to how easy we're going to make it for the Mafia, I'm concerned about making it easy for the ROUS now. If we make a list of who is innocent, the ROUS starts having easy pickin's for either Mafia OR townie ... that's my only concern right now though.

[mathcam]

It seems to me that with only one exposed cop, he should be auto-protected by the docs. So losing DP isn't a huge risk. As for revealing, I would say we should reveal if there were only one killing group left, but with two...they can pick off innocents as fast as we can name 'em. So I think I agree with Dourgrim that we shouldn't expose unless we have many innocents, i.e. let's wait until at least tomorrow.

Cam