13p Normal [TM2015]

[Trojan Horse]

I need to get to bed soon. Long story short: I can't believe that jasontown would fail to protect STD, even if he did suspect STD of being scum. It makes no sense.

[Egg]

Okay someone else point me to it please

I ISO'd him less than 12 hours ago and I don't get it...

I read that. I just don't buy it. You'd have to be damn sure of it to not protect him and I just can't see it. Nice OMGUS though.

So if you did read it, then this post doesn't make sense

This just makes no sense if Jason is town. And it doesn't line up with anything he said before today.

You either read it and understood that I didn't see him as scum until the last night phase

Or you didn't hence why you say it doesn't line up with what I said before this day phase.

It doesn't line up. Unless you thought there was absolutely zero chance Bins would flip town, there should be some evidence in your posts that such a flip would instantly make you so sure STD is scum that you'd not protect him even though he was the only claimed power role other than yourself. It's just so sudden I don't see how it can be true.

[sthar8]

Hmm. Looks like jason hasn't claimed his most recent night action.

UNVOTE: jason

Probably won't make any difference, but I'm willing to wait for him to do that.

Given your theories, why does this matter?

[SleepyKrew]

I ISO'd him less than 12 hours ago and I don't get it...

Maybe we're just dumb

[DeltaWave]

I want to know who was such a better BG target than the claimed RB.

[Trojan Horse]

Hmm. Looks like jason hasn't claimed his most recent night action.

UNVOTE: jason

Probably won't make any difference, but I'm willing to wait for him to do that.

Given your theories, why does this matter?

It probably doesn't matter. I think I know what he's going to claim, anyway. But we might as well make it official.

[DeltaWave]

Actually I want full disclosure of who Jason targeted each night. I've asked this before, but Jason ignored it.

[Boonskiies]

Alright, I reread the thread and my reads have changed...

jasonT1981

- I'm sticking to this. jason is town. As scum, there was no reason for him to push off of my wagon. Crap move last night, but still...a town move nonetheless. If we get down to the brim and into LyLo, sure, then this read should be flip flopped. The bodyguard will take care of itself if he actually is it.

Egg

- Meh...he's town egg. I finally got what Pie was saying [and decided to actually read Pie's walls...]

pieguyn

- went epic hard on Mala for no reason at all. This wasn't bussing. Also, Pie was on real early on the Thor wagon, and I believe Pie would have successfully faught against that wagon if she was scum with Thor.

Deltawave

- Mala being the scum on the early Trojan wagon makes me feel town on delta. I felt there was one scum on that wagon. 1. Only 1. I thought it was Delta or Vyse...Mala flipping scum changes my opinion on Delta completely. =/

SleepyKrew

- gtfo.

sthar8

- This is a bit tricky. I kind of don't know how to feel on this slot. Voting analysis makes it seem like there's no possible way sthar could be scum, but I'm not sure. I want to lean town on sthar, but POE is really the only thing bringing me away from it.

Trojan Horse

- fuckin' scum. Yeah, I was right from Day 1. Trojan was the 4th vote on Thor; that's the magical spot. Hopping on a wagon hoping not to draw attention. The mala thing was a very strong case, and him being her scum partner probably felt more pressure and could see all the points being given. He decided to be the one to hammer mala...after a little bit of hesitation. But then he drops the hesitation, and just hammers. He knew the outcome. Onto Bins! Mala rolecopped someone Night 1, as proved by this. Mafia is given daytalk; it says so in post 1. Mala told this to Trojan, who knew there was a town roleblocker of some sort, and chose to NK to setup a mislynch. TH was in no worry of being the one to be RB'd, so this was a very smart choice on his part. Trojan brought up the idea of scum intentionally NK'ing here.. He brings up the fact of town rb'er keeping quiet so he doesn't seem like he's outing the RB'er. He then goes on to kind of change how he feels about the situation in a way where he could easily switch to joining the wagon or being against the wagon without being questioned.

VOTE: Trojan

[SleepyKrew]

gtfo

Am I missing something

[Boonskiies]

gtfo

Am I missing something

eh, I just can't read you.

[Egg]

Boon, you really think Day 1 came down to two scum wagons?

[SleepyKrew]

It's kinda dumb to assume it didn't for no reason.

[pieguyn]

vote: SK

[jasonT1981]

It doesn't line up. Unless you thought there was absolutely zero chance Bins would flip town,

Get this through your thick fucking head.

My belief STD was scum came

AFTER

the town flip of Bins. Not before, not ever before. Let me walk you through this one more time because you and SK are obviously idiots who can't comprehend the English language

Mala claims RBed.
Mala flips scum.
No kill in night.
STD is the one who calls for RBer to reveal himself (I thought this was soft looking for RBer setting up his claim if none, or outing a town RBer with a counter claim.
Reveals he is blocker
Reveals he blocked Mala (successfully) as Mala (confirmed scum) had already claimed block
Reveals he then blocked Bins on night there was no kill...
Bins then flips town...

this is when I started to think about all the above, after bins flipped town. not before at all. My belief STD was scum came during N3.

That is what you are not understanding, or going out of your way to ignore for convenience.

I believed Mala and STD were in this RB claim together, setting it up down the line. Mala claims RBed (now confirmed scum)... then a RB claim right after a no kill. I thought that this was Mala/STD plan. The claimed block of scum N1 and no kill N2 with a block seemed too perfect, like it was scum fucking with town.

Was I wrong? Yes, I fully admit I fucked up. And I hold my hands up on that one. But Egg - You need to read... my thoughts of STD scum came in the night.. not before the bins flip, not before his claim... in the night when the roleblocked person N2 (Night with no kill) flipped town... Not before.

SK - You really are fucking dense... I am explaining why he is scum... but not why he isn't town? How the fuck does that even work. If I am saying why I thought he was scum, that surely explains why I thought he was not more likely to be town.

As for saying who I protected - go fuck yourself. Not saying anything more, not going to give out any more information that can help scum work out who I may or may not protect in the night.

[jasonT1981]

Boon, you really think Day 1 came down to two scum wagons?

It kinda did. It was me mostly, then Thor.

There

were

wagons appeared briefly on Boon and Trojan that mostly didn't get of the ground (gotta double check Trojan though) but for the most part, it seemed like only Thor or myself were seriously considered and pushed.

[Trojan Horse]

jasonT1981

- I'm sticking to this. jason is town. As scum, there was no reason for him to push off of my wagon. Crap move last night, but still...a town move nonetheless.

If we get down to the brim and into LyLo, sure, then this read should be flip flopped. The bodyguard will take care of itself if he actually is it.

Emphasis mine. Boon, I wish I could share your optimism. Jason now has a perfect alibi if he continues to survive night rounds; he can say that scum is leaving him alive because he is a scum suspect. Plus, with no other claimed power roles still alive, scum shooting jasontown isn't a priority.

I don't want to give jason a chance to work his scum-hypnosis on the group. He needs to go now.

As for saying who I protected - go fuck yourself. Not saying anything more, not going to give out any more information that can help scum work out who I may or may not protect in the night.

I admit, this surprises me. I thought you were going to say that you protected pie again. I guess your line is going to be that you protected someone that you think is a power role, and you don't want to say who that is. Fine, but I don't buy it.

Boon, you really think Day 1 came down to two scum wagons?

It kinda did. It was me mostly, then Thor.

Scumslip?

Trojan Horse

- fuckin' scum. Yeah, I was right from Day 1.

...

VOTE: Trojan

Honestly, I'm willing to go all-in on this one. I don't see myself ever changing my mind on jason, unless there's 100% proof (perhaps through night actions) that someone else is scum. If you guys don't want to lynch jason today, then you can lynch me and put me out of my misery.

Now to explain why I think jasontown would've protected STD no matter what. Hang on while I type this up...

[pieguyn]

Scumslip?

yeah, uhhh

I usually don't find scum slips compelling but yeah. wanna see what jason says here

(although, full disclosure, this is really the only thing making me think he might be scum atm)

[Trojan Horse]

Okay. Let's say jason is town, and he suspects STD of being scum. Failing to protect STD is still a dumb move, and I'm confident jasontown would not have done that.

Why? Let's say jason is right about STD being scum. What's the upside of protecting someone other than STD? The only potential upside is that he might protect the scum's kill-target; thus, he dies, and the kill-target lives. But how much can that help the town? If it's just a case of protecting a solid town-read (like pie), I don't see how it helps the town very much. If anything, that would probably HURT the town; jason is no longer alive to make his case against STD. Plus, jason's death is exactly what we would expect to happen if STD is town; thus, STD still looks town to us. Letting pie die would help make the case that STD is scum; we wouldn't expect pie to die if STD is town.

So, what's the benefit of jasontown not protecting STD if STD is scum? I see only one real benefit: there's a chance that jason will protect a power role from dying. And with no other claimed power roles, the chances of that are slim. So I see little upside here.

Now, what's the downside of not protecting STD if STD is town? There's an IMMENSE downside. The town loses a roleblocker, and there's a good chance we lynch jason for being derelict in his duties. Two power roles gone just like that, and scum - who seemed to be in a hopeless situation - suddenly has a decent chance to win.

Little to no upside if STD is scum; a huge downside if STD is town. If jason is town, I can't believe he wouldn't protect STD; if he suspected STD of being scum, he'd play it safe and STILL protect STD. He'd then try to lynch STD the next day. (That DOES have an upside if STD is scum; we then win the game.)

Now, this is completely ignoring the fact that jason suspecting STD is a bit hard to believe. (I think Egg covered that one well.) But even granting that he suspected STD, failing to protect STD still makes no sense. jason has to be scum.

[Trojan Horse]

pie, remember how stubborn you were in attacking mala during day 2? Now it's my turn to be stubborn.

[pieguyn]

stuff like that is moreso why I think bodyguard is a terrible role than anything else. *if* jason is town here, he's essentially in a position where he's fucked if he does (protecting a scum read) and fucked if he doesn't (what's happening to him now).

and I'm really not sure if most people bother thinking about what happens if they die and then can't push their top scum read

again it's moreso why bodyguard is a shit role: you get punished for using it effectively

[pieguyn]

plus *if* he is town here I find it unlikely he really gave a shit about who he targeted, given it appears he'd be under the impression he'd get blocked anyway

[Trojan Horse]

plus *if* he is town here I find it unlikely he really gave a shit about who he targeted, given it appears he'd be under the impression he'd get blocked anyway

Setting aside the fact that STD was joking about blocking jason...

Let's say you're a power role, and you think you have a 90% chance of being blocked. Do you still choose your target carefully? Sure, because of that 10% chance that you are not blocked. jasontown would've cared about who he targeted, even if he thought he'd be blocked.

[jasonT1981]

Yes, I should have protected him, no doubt now. I did think he was scum though, and admit I got it wrong.

I am not going to protect someone i thought was scum.. that is why I didn't.


EBYOP - got a few things to read...

I do care about who I target, that is why I do not target someone to protect who I think is scum.

[jasonT1981]

Scumslip?

yeah, uhhh

I usually don't find scum slips compelling but yeah. wanna see what jason says here

(although, full disclosure, this is really the only thing making me think he might be scum atm)

More being flustered and not reading. I read it as coming down to two wagons. Which I believe it did my wagon, and Thor.. the other two manifested and disappared.

I was speaking about the wagons in general, not 'scum wagons' I did miss the 'scum' part

[Trojan Horse]

More being flustered and not reading. I read it as coming down to two wagons. Which I believe it did my wagon, and Thor.. the other two manifested and disappared.

I'll save you the trouble of double-checking my wagon. It definitely did NOT disappear; I came within an inch of being lynched.