Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, please make a clear factual case for why Glork is 100% confirmed in your eyes, using quotes from the cop as your evidence.

[Glork]

MBL, I want you to answer my questions to you. Each and every one of them. I want you to answer them to the best of your ability in an analytical, thoughtful post (or series of posts). If you fail to answer each and every question that I posted, I will treat it exactly the same way as I treated CES's continued refusal to respond to my inquiries of him. (In other words, the less you answer to, the more suspicious I will become of you.)



MGM, I would like you to make a direct response to Patrick's post which I quoted. Do you see PatrickScum picking CES over MBL yesterday when I asked him for his opinion and said that I trusted him?

[MrBuddyLee]

Can I finish Clash of Kings first please?

[Glork]

I'm sure you can set aside one hour in the next couple of days to read, analyze, and respond to my posts. Heck, I'm in the interviewing stage for

four

jobs right now, and spent nearly twelve hours out of town yesterday, and I still managed to make some thoughtful posts in this game yesterday.

[Glork]

EBWODP: Er... to give a more clear answer: Do whatever you want, as long as you get a timely and appropriate response to me. If by midweek I haven't gotten that response, I'm going to be very, very angry.

[Patrick]

Mgm, if Glork said, "I think the fact that Patrick's name begins with a P is a scumtell, what do you guys think?" would you agree with that? Do you actually plan on looking at anything at all that points towards me not being scum? Are you even capable of doing that anymore? Why are you selectively avoiding topics?

If you are so set on using the WIFOM of last night's kill against me, then I want you to explain why exactly you think I would have killed CTD on night 4 if I was scum. Not something I'd usually bring up, but you are apparently a big fan of using nightkills to make crucial decisions.

[Patrick]

Also, if you could avoid basing absolutely everything you say on the assumption that I'm scum, that would be fairly helpful.

[MrBuddyLee]

Considering that you've spent the whole day going after a townie, Patrick, I don't think Mgm's likely to heed your admonitions.

Mgm, we know you're town. We still need to tell you when we think you're playing in a way that'll piss the game away. At least one of Patrick and I are town, and we're both saying you're hasty in the lockdown of your vote. Even Glork seems unhappy that you've locked in to Patrick. I suppose the scum amongst us wants to keep his options open, but there's a good chance you're wrong on Patrick. If you weren't confirmed town, I'd find you scummy for your certainty right now because I don't think the facts back it up. Please take the time to answer my question about Fritz carefully, thanks.

[Mgm]

Who am I to argue with you, MBL? If you want me to consider you as a scumbag, I'd be happy to oblige.

[Mgm]

I should be able to post some answers by the end of tuesday.

[Patrick]

Considering that you've spent the whole day going after a townie, Patrick, I don't think Mgm's likely to heed your admonitions.

Do you mean the whole game? Otherwise I don't get what you're saying.

Who am I to argue with you, MBL? If you want me to consider you as a scumbag, I'd be happy to oblige.

Pretty sure that's not what he was saying.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL: If you felt that CDB was actively lurking so hard, why didn't you choose to take any action, especially after he failed to change his ways after your initial comments towards him?

Probably because I was probing Thesp, who'd put me on his short list D1 for no good reason, and Thesp also happened to be pushing CDB ruthlessly. I also thought I had a weak meta on CDB. As the cop in WoT, I chose to investigate him N3 because he was...

oily

. Manipulative and sleazy, and sure enough he turned up scum. I got no such vibe this game, and thus placed him in the "weak town" category.

Suddenly MBL is all anti-CDB. What happened between last post and this one?

I was thoroughly boggled by your posts indicating certainty of CDB's scumminess. I reread to see if you were just being typical Glork, but it read different to me. There was NOTHING in the day's play to give you that degree of certainty on CDB. You voted someone else out of the blocks, then used a PBPA as the opportunity to explain your shift of opinion to CDB and away from Thesp, after which you expressed yourself in certainties. I considered whether you'd have investigated Thesp or CDB that night, and decided that choosing CDB was entirely reasonable for a cop who found Thesp suspect.

Just how much cake do you want to have and eat? Do you rob bakeries when you're not off killing innocents?

Yes, and I have to work extra hard on my tan to conceal the pasty whiteness from all the incidental flour.

I'd like you to explain your behavior towards both CES and CDB in the early parts of the game.

I explained CDB--I had a weak meta and I suspected Thesp. I think scum often go after weak sheep, and when Thesp went after me, Andrew and CDB I sensed opportunism. As for CES, I noticed he was more active than usual D1--excited about the game for whatever reason. I've heard he vastly prefers being scum to town, so that was something to keep an eye on. He's in the Fritz category where his contributions are harder to analyze, so you need to hit him hard on the few significant actions he does take. In this game, his first really notable action was his shilling for the Thespwagon, and as Thesp's alignment became clearer, that gave reason to suspect CES.

MBL: If you think that I was being opportunistic to go after Patrick, what do you have to say about the fact that I made a lengthy post about your scumminess towards CES/CDB first?

If you're town, that's being thorough and even-handed. That would be cover if you are scum--attempting to look thorough and even-handed.

How different do you feel that my play has been as compared to your own?

Off the top of my head, you've been focused on me since the start of the day, and my theory has been that as scum, you probably expected Mgm to vote me solidly today and therefore your only chance at a lynch today was to nail me. I've been more inclined to see you as scum, but there's no way I'd ever wrap up a six month game without taking a good long look at both possible scum, so I've also explored possibilities re: Patrick. That's the difference between us today, and the thing is, both you and Patrick were of one mind on me, so I found you both curious if not scummy for not being thorough. Any difference that comes to mind is colored by the fact that you've been pushing/voting an innocent all day, and more aggressively so than the other possible scum.

How can you accuse me of being opportunistic Re: Patrick when MGM's Patrick-vote has been the writing on the walls for so long? Would you expect GlorkScum to take literally weeks to make the kind of turn that you have suggested?

I don't know where you get "weeks" from--it was only a week ago that Mgm started zeroing in on Patrick. Before then, Glorkscum had every reason to believe I was its target today. Mgm appeared open to voting either Patrick or myself until Thursday July 12th at 1pm when he voted Patrick. If you're scum, you'd have three choices at that point: stick to your guns on MBL, look fishy by suddenly grilling Patrick, or slowly transition into a mild suspicion of Patrick. The next day (Friday) you asked for an outline of Mgm's suspicions of Patrick, and the next day (Saturday) you posted your first suspicions of Patrick. I will say, the smart play as scum would be not to rush that so much--it's weird either way because if you're town, I don't see you changing your mind that rapidly either, based on just about no new evidence.

After Mgm FOSed Patrick, hinting for the first time at a possible vote, you recklessly voted me that day with stated explanation that you had a meta, which when added to some weak arguments from D1/D2 made it time at last for you to vote. Given the timing, your posts last Sunday look for all the world like an attempt to sway Mgm back into line in suspicion of me, the "play" today.

You bantered with Mgm for a day, and this is when I posted my analysis of Fritz's D3. If you are scum, it appears you saw the intractability of Mgm's position, simultaneously saw I was open to seeing you as a potential confirmed innocent, and that's when your curiosity towards Patrick kicked in. Your vote seemed pretty firm last weekend, and while I'm glad to see your newfound flexibility if you're town, that's tempered by a natural suspicion of the malleability of the oft-certain Glork.

Do you see why I am miffed at your reaction to my most recent analysis?

Yes, if you are town you finally stepped out of the box and opened your mind to suspecting the actual scum, Patrick. You're unhappy that I jumped on you for what's actually a positive move in this game.

Problem is, I don't know if you're town. So while I'm pleased with your newfound openmindedness if you're town, I have to evaluate the action for any possible motive besides the altruistic one. And I suppose I should have been clearer about that--if you're town, bravo, if you're scum, your timing is suspect. Which leads to the next question:

Do you, right now, believe that I am seeking the "easy route" to victory? If so, what makes that route easier than any other?

This is WIFOM, but to an extent, yes. Once Mgm locked in on Patrick, your easiest victory would be getting me to vote Patrick as well. You could also try waiting things out for a no-lynch, in which case you could triangulate several ways for tomorrow. You could kill me and lynch Patrick with Mgm, or you could kill Mgm and try to lynch me with Patrick. I suppose the former looks like your easy win of the two at the moment, so lynch or no-lynch, establishing your suspicion of Patrick is now the way to go if you're scum.

As you muck through the depths of my play, do you really believe that surface suspicion, or are you willing to admit that you overstated yourself? While one interpretation may be that I was opportunistic, is that the most sensible, logical, or (most importantly)

likely

interpretation?

LOL, this entirely depends on whether you're town or scum! If you're scum, of course it was opportunistic. A little unsubtle, but then again you're the guy who's expressed certainty that I've been scum three times in other games and you've been wrong/scum every time. Subtlety isn't your schtick. As Glorkscum tried to get someone to hammer me D1, page 2 in Space Monkey :

Um... I fully embrace my "scumminess." I am starting off a game by behaving in a completely ridiculous, counterintuitive, non-productive manner. Welcome to Glork's mafia play. Would you like me to go cite the eight thousand million examples in which I've done so and been accused of being a scumbag for it?

and in Speedy KQ's:

Glork and Tamuz are on the (MBL) lynch. That's really all the explanation you need. We're in consensus now. It's a done deal, really.

Blatant "in-your-face" scumminess is part of your bag of tricks as scum. I will never assume that because you didn't do the subtle, safe thing that you are likely town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, you have done SO many scummy things this game, and often specifically targeting me, that it's nigh-impossible for me to see you as town.

You are the guy who was inexplicably (correctly) certain about CDB's scumminess, inexplicably (correctly) certain about Zindaras's township, inexplicably certain (incorrectly) about Battle Mage's scumminess.

You are a Fritzler expert and you claim there was an obvious Fritz-innocent-tell on Thesp on the record, which you claim to have missed while voting to lynch Thesp.

You are the guy who pushed the outing of sv, the vig of IH, hammered Andrew, pushed the outing of Adele, and voted to lynch Thesp D2 even though you later claimed you didn't think he was scummiest.

You're the guy who voted CES aggressively out of the blocks the day after the CDB lynch, then the next day unvoted and said you thought he was a complete idiot but you had a meta that made you all the sudden think he wasn't scum.

After Zindy was modkilled and I voted CES, you're the guy who pulled a bizarro mano-a-mano on me, demanding that I either lynch you or get lynched myself that day, which in retrospect looks suspiciously like protection of a godfather.

vote: CES

MBL, I demand that if you go to lynch anybody today, it's me.

You're the guy who came after me today with the meta:

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

which looks remarkably similar to the tripe you tried to whip out on me in Speedy KQ's:

Either you're scum who knew something (and stayed off two bad lynches), or you're an incredibly insightful pro-town player. No offense to you or your play ability, but I'm obviously wagering my money on the former.

These are just some of the reasons why I have a ton of difficulty seeing you as town this game.

Why were you certain of CDB's scumminess D3?

Why did you challenge me mano-a-mano D4 when I voted CES, demanding I try to lynch you instead?

What's your explanation for using the same bogus argument on me (re: off-the-lynch) this game as you used in SpeedyKQ's as scum?

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Patrick: 1 (Mgm)

Not voting: MrBuddyLee Patrick Glork

4 alive means

3

to lynch!

[Glork]

Mod:

I

Unvote

d MBL in Post 2035. Thanks. <3



On the first point, MBL: You're right in that there was nothing specific in "the day's play" (that is to say, Day Three) that would be damning on CDB. However, over the course of my re-read -- as well as finding out that Fritz was the Cop and had an innocent on Thesp -- I noticed a rather chilling compliation of infractions that led me to believe that he was scum. That, and... (this is probably going to sound very silly, but it's the dead honest truth) knowing that Thesp was very, very likely pro-town, and that he had zoomed in on one player specifically, I sensed that he had picked up on something big, and I was willing to trust him. I've only seen Thesp behave that stubbornly as town once or twice before, and he was dead right. Thesp is an eerily accurate scumhunter, and knowing that he was locked onto CDB gave me much more confidence in my suspicions.

Is there one specific thing that caused me to change my mind? No. Absolutely not. But there were numerous little things that just gave me a very, very uneasy feeling about him.

What I would like to know, MBL, is why you feel my certainty is indicative of scum in this particular situation. You know that's how I played in LO2 as town. I could easily point to another half-dozen games at the drop of a hat where I expressed similar

certainty

throughout the game, while pro-town. If you intend to use this as a point against me, I would like you to explain why exactly it is indicative of scum in

this game

in spite of the fact that playing with confidence/certainty has basically always been the way I've done things.

I think scum often go after weak sheep, and when Thesp went after me, Andrew and CDB I sensed opportunism.

What specifically (posts, interations, attitudes) caused you to believe that Thesp was being opportunistic? Was it, by any chance, his proclaimed

certainty

regarding his proclaimed scumbags?

If you're town, that's being thorough and even-handed. That would be cover if you are scum--attempting to look thorough and even-handed.

I am going to play some mild WIFOM and ask you to meta me fairly heavily: Based on your past experiences with and reads of Glorkscum, do you think I have a history of "appearing thorough and even-headed"? Is your opinion of this level of posting consistent with the way you have seen me in this game?

Any difference that comes to mind is colored by the fact that you've been pushing/voting an innocent all day, and more aggressively so than the other possible scum.

I have to say, I literally honestly spit my juice out when I read this. Did you really just state that you're allowing OMGUS to significantly influence your opinion in a large decision at endgame?
Here is what I got out of this: "You've been going after me really aggressively, and I'm town, so that makes you more likely to be scum."
If that's an accurate summary, I want you to explain why your conclusion is legitimate
If it is not an accurate summary, I would love for you to enlighten me. (And I would then like you to explain why such an opinion is a legitimate means of finding scum.)

I don't know where you get "weeks" from--it was only a week ago that Mgm started zeroing in on Patrick.

Sorry. A solid week. It feels like longer to me. And when I say that the writing has been on the wall that long, I'm referring to this post, made on July 8, 10:45 AM EDT, when it became apparent that Mgm was very likely going to eventually vote Patrick:

CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.

From what I've seen CES tends to be quite, so a chirpy CES is a deviation from the norm. Doesn't say much, though.

Actually, I can't stomach the idea that MBL would leave me alive after yesterday. He had no idea I would change my mind today and leaving such a vocal player alive that wants to lynch you is almost certainly suicide. With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

FOS:Patrick

that's tempered by a natural suspicion of the malleability of the oft-certain Glork.

...another lose-lose situation you present to me. If I stay certain, I'm too certain to be town. If I change, I'm suspicous for not being certain. Note that your "malleability of the oft-certain Glork" is basically an admission that you realize that I often play as though I'm certain of everything -- yet you continue to assert that my earlier play is indicative of me being scum.

Why?

LOL, this entirely depends on whether you're town or scum! If you're scum, of course it was opportunistic.

No, no, no, no. You're creating a circular argument. "If Glork is scum, then he was being opportunistic, which makes him more likely to be scum" and "If Glork is town, then he was being open to possibilities, which makes him more likely to be scum." Of course that's the case, MBL. Any idiot could see what my posts mean IF I am scum or not. But the whole point of this game is that

you are trying to decide IF I am scum or not

. You can't start with the conclusion and arrive at the conclusion.

Major FoS: MBL

for using craptastic logic to avoid my question.

I want you to state,

without qualifiers on my alignment

whether you think that OpportunisticGlork is the most likely/sensible explanation for what I did.

Why did you challenge me mano-a-mano D4 when I voted CES, demanding I try to lynch you instead?

Because, at the time, I found Nightfall/MBL to be by far the most likely scumpairing, and I thought that your attacking me while voting CES was a rather large misdirection. Now, I see that it was probably a mere distancing tactic from CES -- keep your vote sitting lazily on your Godfather, take a couple of potshots, but get into the heated debate with Glork. What's worse is that I handed you the out/excuse that you needed to move away from CES and onto me... I gave it to you wrapped up, with a pretty little bow on top.

What's your explanation for using the same bogus argument on me (re: off-the-lynch) this game as you used in SpeedyKQ's as scum?

The arguments are actually fundamentally different.
In SpeedyKQ's, I was insinuating that you had knowledge that only scum could have. (Huh... certainty? Too certain to be town? Konwledge that the town couldn't have? Nah... couldn't be.)
In this game, I am claiming that your tactics are being employed to make you as untraceable as possible.
Same actions, vastly different tactics/intentions.

[MrBuddyLee]

I would like you to explain why exactly it is indicative of scum in this game in spite of the fact that playing with confidence/certainty has basically always been the way I've done things.

I am going to play some mild WIFOM and ask you to meta me fairly heavily: Based on your past experiences with and reads of Glorkscum, do you think I have a history of "appearing thorough and even-headed"? Is your opinion of this level of posting consistent with the way you have seen me in this game?

You're right to an extent. I know you have exhibited poor play in this manner as both town and scum. To some degree you do it to maintain viability on this site, and I sympathize. I'm trying to illustrate the dilemma I face, knowing full well that you're prone to this bad behavior regardless. Do I exonerate you for it this time only to be cackled at as you watch me drink my poisoned wine? If you use poor play as a tactic as town, the burden is upon you to dig out of the holes you bury yourself in. And whether you're scum or town, astute townies should rightfully scan that digging for insincerity. Personally, I think your play has been more reckless and inexplicable in this game than in others, and the natural assumption is that recklessness is proportional to scumminess.

I have to say, I literally honestly spit my juice out when I read this. Did you really just state that you're allowing OMGUS to significantly influence your opinion in a large decision at endgame? Here is what I got out of this: "You've been going after me really aggressively, and I'm town, so that makes you more likely to be scum."

I'd edit your premise to read "going after me

exclusively

". But like I said, Patrick's done the same, so one of you is semi-artful scum and the other is a narrowminded nabob. But the question you asked was to compare you and me, not you and Patrick, and you've been singleminded today compared to me, which is what I find suspect, regardless of the target, so it's not OMGUS. (Note my similar feelings about Mgm's singlemindedness.)

No, no, no, no. You're creating a circular argument.

Sure, but it's tough not to at endgame. You have to view every action as either genuine or faux-genuine, and the likelihood of each approaches 50-50. I agree I can try harder to mine for the gems of truth in the posts you guys make. I've currently been focused on the negative, probably because both of you have ill-placed suspicions.

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't think you sufficiently explained the mano-a-mano thing. You explained why you found my action suspect. You didn't explain why your supposed townish behavior, to try to force me into a me or you scenario, was warranted as opposed to simply attacking me and finding me suspect. It's a rare and notable occurrence when someone tries so overtly to get me to move my vote, and rarer that they try to get me to move it onto

them

, and rarer yet that the beneficiary of said tactic happens to be the mafia godfather.

My vote was the third on CES, with five to lynch.

It was obviously panic time for scum

--if CES got lynched there and then, the game was down to 7 players remaining and two confirmed innocents. AND Nightfall and MBL would have been viewed as townish for lynching CES, leaving only Patrick, Glork, Ether as likely scum.

You tried to foment Mgm's wagon on me, then not gaining traction, shifted to BM (Nightfall).

Patrick didn't place a vote for over three weeks, then moved to join you on BM (Nightfall).

Patrick defended Nightfall Feb 22nd, March 13th, March 17th, March 19th, then changed his tune April 4th.

I understood where Ether was going more on day 1, but the strong attack on Nightfall still seems strange.

I like Ether's case on Nightfall

Patrick, Ether didn't make any new arguments at all regarding Nightfall between March 17th and April 19th. What explains your shift in opinion?

Glork had Nightfall on his short pro-town list Feb 19th, found him slightly pro-town March 8th, found him the townier of Ether/Nightfall on March 16th after his PBPAs. April 5th unvoted CES, voted Ether. By April 20th, changed his tune:

"I like Ether's attack on Nightfall."

I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}.

Glork, same question to you, Ether did nothing notable at all between April 5th and April 20th. Why your change of tune?

For reference, May 10th is when Glork made his mano-a-mano play, possibly in protection of CES.

Also:

I've only seen Thesp behave that stubbornly as town once or twice before, and he was dead right. Thesp is an eerily accurate scumhunter, and knowing that he was locked onto CDB gave me much more confidence in my suspicions.

Thesp was on CES for all of April and May, yet you spent your April and May dinking around on Nightfall and me.

Why were you eager to trust Thesp on CDB but not CES?

[Patrick]

Patrick, Ether didn't make any new arguments at all regarding Nightfall between March 17th and April 19th. What explains your shift in opinion?

Actually she did. She made a list of several points against Nightfall. She had to redo it because it got lost in the crash remember?

[Glork]

and the natural assumption is that recklessness is proportional to scumminess.

I know many, many, MANY players who would disagree with this. In fact, in SIHM Mafia, Mith said (paraphrased) "careless Glork is more likely to be town Glork," so I know at least one player who disagrees with this assertion with regards to me specifically.

Sure, but it's tough not to at endgame. You have to view every action as either genuine or faux-genuine, and the likelihood of each approaches 50-50. I agree I can try harder to mine for the gems of truth in the posts you guys make. I've currently been focused on the negative, probably because both of you have ill-placed suspicions.

Fail. Megafail.
Avoiding circular logic is easy, if you're pro-town. You would simply start with an unknown ("I don't know what X's alignment is.") and work towards a known ("X's posts look opportunistic, so I think that X is likely to be scum.") The only hard part is explaining "X's posts look opportunistic" without saying "if/because X is scum."

Seriously.... if you want an example, look at my analysis of Patrick. Even operating under the impression that Patrick was town, I looked at his posts within the context of the game and not any outside impressions, hypotheticals, or suppositions. I arrived at the conclusion that I was too firm in that initial impression.

C'mon, MBL. I shouldn't have to teach you how to use logic. I think you're trying to take the easy way out by saying "it's hard not to use circular logic." I find it very easy to avoid circular logic. Don't assume the conclusions which you are trying to determine.

Glork, same question to you, Ether did nothing notable at all between April 5th and April 20th. Why your change of tune?

Ether presented a very well-explained case that was ultimately lost in the missing posts from the server move and crash. That post included pointing out Nightfall's "but Fritz is lurking, too; why are we going after CDB?" post which served to convince me (and Thesp, if you remember correctly) that Nightfall was scum.

I believe I even mentioned this after the crash came back.

EDIT: Okay, not explicitly... but I said that, lost in the posts, I liked Ether's attack on Nightfall. The attack to which I was referring occurred during the crash. In fact, Ether recapped exactly what she said during the crash in this post. If you had bothered to read the surrounding context, you would know this already.

Why were you eager to trust Thesp on CDB but not CES?

I was more convinced that you and Nightfall were very likely the last remaining scums?
Saying that I put weight on Thesp's opinion does not mean that I will follow him regardless. That's just terrible play. Keep in mind that CES was also on my list; I just wasn't as sure about him, because he plays this flippant style rather often, as both town and scum.

[Mgm]

For future reference to include in my later reread and post: I'm not sure that everything that is being labelled as circular logic actually is. Should look into that.

[Patrick]

Greetings all. If I don't post much or at all in the next day or two, it's because I'm in pain (minor operation took place some half hour ago). For now, I'm a bit puzzled on MBL's reply to Glork's question about whether or not he was being oppotunistic towards me. It seems like he went to some length to avoid answering. I don't think it's that hard a question to answer, I even remember kind of answering it earlier without it being asked to me.

[Mr Stoofer]

Three days without a post!?!? Do you guys want a deadline?

[Patrick]

I should be able to post some answers by the end of tuesday.

This is mainly what I've been waiting for. I assume he meant this tuesday.

[Glork]

Same here.


Needless to say, Mgm's opinion is kindof important. Perhaps we could get a courtesy

modprod

on him?

[Mgm]

Yeah sorry about that. The weather I wasn't too keen on typing this past week.
With Harry Potter out tomorrow, I doubt I will be on much so I should make the time I AM on count. If anyone can help by summarizing the questions I need to answer, they'd save me a lot of time.

(I need the rest of the day to put the game I'm modding into day.)