Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[MrBuddyLee]

Also relevant is the likelihood that V lied in his final post. I see no incentive for him to lie. It's odd that Autumn wouldn't evaluate the likelihood of such a lie when forwarding it as a possibility.

[LoudmouthLee]

Autumn is by far our most likely scum.

mFOS: Lee for protecting

. It's possible that Glork protected her, but can we afford to take that chance?

I think we should analyze the likelihood that she was protected and move forward from there.

I metagame. This is strictly a metagame logistical jump.

[AutumnEvenings]

Also relevant is the likelihood that V lied in his final post. I see no incentive for him to lie. It's odd that Autumn wouldn't evaluate the likelihood of such a lie when forwarding it as a possibility.

*shrugs* Vendagoat wants me dead, for whatever reason. He either lied or told the truth. I have no way of knowing which it was, since they killed our doctor. Yesterday I didn't believe I was the missed kill because I didn't think I'd performed well enough to merit a kill, was somewhat lynchable, and wasn't a blank player (the sort that can die and leave no trace at all). Knowing now that Goat was mafia, I think the chances of him trying to kill me are higher, as I did suspect him. But I can't evaluate the likelihood of him lying, since for me it depends entirely on how likely Glork was to protect me, and I have no clue at all.

However, I can definitley see incentives for him to lie:
1) He wants me dead and figured others would buy into it. Saying he targeted me is a good way to accomplish that post-lynch. Other people (Lee and Mert, that I recall) had already speculated that I was the target, which could have given him the idea.
2) He wants me dead for vindictive reasons. I caught his team. He was spouting vile about me all of yesterday. Lynching me is revenge.
3) He wants me dead because he wants Ice to win. He might have additional information about Ice, since only he knows who he targeted (and could know whether that person was a likely doc protect or a likely mafia). Also, to be perfectly honest, wiping out Fire this early is

not

in the best interests of Ice, as it makes the game last longer meaning they have to avoid being lynched for more days. Yesterday morning, I made it clear that my intent was to eliminate Fire and went about doing so, so add that to his knowledge about his failed kill and he could have had strong reasons to believe I'm pro-town. Lynching me means another day that both Ice members survive.

I have a question for you, MrBuddyLee. What incentive do you see for him to have told the

truth

?

[AutumnEvenings]

Edit by way of post:

And also, MrBuddyLee, if he was telling the truth about targeting me, why did he claim to have targeted me

in the same post where he self-hammered

, thus denying Glork the opportunity to say who he'd protected?

[LoudmouthLee]

Edit by way of post:

And also, MrBuddyLee, if he was telling the truth about targeting me, why did he claim to have targeted me

in the same post where he self-hammered

, thus denying Glork the opportunity to say who he'd protected?

Well.. this doesn't make sense, AE.

I am nearly positive that VendaGoat tried to kill you. Now, the question is.. are you scum or doc protected?

I wanted to have Glork TELL us that, but Mneme (as quoted earlier) said we shouldn't give Glork that opportunity, as it would help the scum.

@Mneme: What says you now?

[MrBuddyLee]

I am not the doc. But, still, Glork... I don't think you are either.

But, for the record, I

do

think Glork is the doctor. I don't like the people who are still suspecting Glork.

But no FOS or vote of LML from Autumn. Instead, a defense of him as unlikely Fire mafia:

Do you disagree with my point that LmL unvoted MrBuddyLee, who had reached the necessary votes first and thus would be the deadline lynch unless someone placed an additional vote on XYZ, which is what really allowed us to lynch XYZ (he did gain an additional vote, from Glork who said he was doing it pretty much solely to secure a lynch, but Glork was on MrBuddyLee, so I doubt he would have removed his vote had MrBuddyLee still been the leader)? And that that didn't really feel like a move a partner would make, because there was no point in doing it, as staying on MBL wouldn't look too suspicious even if he came up town, and he didn't win any good grace by actually voting XYZ?

It's quite possible LoudmouthLee is Ice mafia, but I really don't see him as being XYZ's surviving partner.

Infallibly correct, however an odd choice of "protection" considering LML wasn't particularly under attack at the time.

Fitting neatly into the picture of "if we kill Fire and then subtly attack each other there's no way we both get lynched in the next three days":

Finally,

FoS: AutumnEvenings

. She may be Ice Mafia and was targeted last night. This also fits the fact that from what I have seen, AE is a fairly typical N1 kill. She's eloquent and dangerous. With the opening FoS's levvied on her, I believe that she could be ice mafia and the one of her earlier FoSers could be Fire Mafia.

Lee likes to be right early, and he's merciless about busing partners. If he's scum with Autumn, his warnings today not to rush to judgment would have to be WIFOM--attempts to make him look like cautious town.

Also, it'd do everyone good to read Vendagoat's posts yesterday to see if he was hinting at his kill target. And then it'd be good to read possible ice-scum's posts to see if they're conveniently ignoring Vendagoat's post history while speculating about who he targeted N1.

[mneme]

STOP STOP STOP.

No.

Those are 2 VERY quick votes, and should be unvoted. With Glork dead, and someone (I need to find out who, and will on reread) told Glork to NOT give his protection.

As you say later, that was me.

Until it became very clear who the Fire mafia was, there was good reason not to find out Glork protection -- it helped the (fire) mafia as much as it did us if not more.

Obviously, once we figured things out and thought we had an idea of who the Goat hit (and it was very likely that this was AE long before Vendagoat self-voted and revealed his kill, which is why I believe him aside from him not having a reason to lie), it was advantagous if we found out whether Glork had targetted AE.

By the same token, I'm pretty sure if he -had- targetted AE, given the suspisions raised yesterday, he would have said something.

Now, we have a situation. We will NEVER know if AE was protected by Glork.

Yes, we will -- once we lynch her and find out she's Ice, we'll be pretty damned sure.

While I normally don't appreciate a quicklynch, I think one's entirely reasonable here -- there's really nothing for the town to discuss, and much to gain.

[MrBuddyLee]

Edit by way of post:

And also, MrBuddyLee, if he was telling the truth about targeting me, why did he claim to have targeted me

in the same post where he self-hammered

, thus denying Glork the opportunity to say who he'd protected?

Because he was angry and not thinking straight. He'd already indicated he didn't want to play on a site where humor's discouraged, and he was pissy about people being on his tail. He lost his cool, and fortunately didn't ruin the game for any scumpartners of his or he'd have earned himself a site suspension. Voting himself was dumb, and he took a potshot at who he thought remaining scum were while forgetting that we needed doc info to help us clear up the picture.

[MrBuddyLee]

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

[LoudmouthLee]

Venda voted AE out of the gate and never let up. He targeted her, and therein lies the debate. Was AE protected? I am 75% Protection. That *does not* mean that she's not scum. She could be BOTH:

P = AE was Protected
Q = AE is Scum
R = AE was targeted and Not Killed

This makes the logical statement R -> [P v Q] (If R then P or Q) inherently true if she was targeted. As a logical jump, looking at Venda's voting pattern, AE was targeted. Lets keep in mind that in any logistical disjunction, the or does not renounce the fact that P AND Q [P A Q] may be true as well.

What I'm saying is, I believe, based on Glork's play, that AE was a very likely protection, and a moreso likely Doc Protect. Is it still possible that AE is scum.

Yes.

Do I think we need to look elsewhere today?

Yes.

I am still warily suspicious of you, MBL.

[LoudmouthLee]

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

Objection.

Why does this matter, your honor?

Major FoS: MBL

[MrBuddyLee]

I am still warily suspicious of you, MBL.

As you should be if you're town, and as you'd fake if you're scum. Doesn't really tell us much.

[MrBuddyLee]

everyone had a reason to kill Glork, since he was a claimed doc and possessed information which might have cleared me

But I can't evaluate the likelihood of him lying, since for me it depends entirely on how likely Glork was to protect me

Sure you're FOSing the right person, Lee?

[mneme]

entirely out of line:

On a personal note I'd love to know how she figured out the pairing in 31 posts.

That, coupled with a few things he said earlier, made me feel like I was being accused of cheating.

I am not an alt, and I have no other accounts on this board. I did not engage in any off-thread communication. I did nothing against either the letter or the spirit of the rules.

Clearly.

That was totally out of line.

Oh, btw,

confirm vote: AE

Re quicklynches--while the town could use some discussion on the remaining Ice, losing one more person tonight really doesn't hurt us that much -- whereas too much discussion today gives the scum clues for who to kill. Usually, the scum have so much more to lose during the day than the town does -- but that seems less likely here.

I've got some ideas on who might be AE's partner (and who might not be), but those can wait for if I'm still alive tomorrow.

[AutumnEvenings]

Gah. I should stop looking at this game for the day (real life day), but this:

While I normally don't appreciate a quicklynch, I think one's entirely reasonable here -- there's really nothing for the town to discuss, and much to gain.

is just so incredibly bad. First of all, I'm not mafia. But secondly, for crying out loud, discussion is good for the town. You think there's nothing to discuss? In your hypothetical world in which I am mafia, who is my partner? And how do you know? Not everyone has even posted yet. I'm personally

very

interested to see how everyone reacts to all of this, as there are two remaining killers and I'm not sure who they are.

Right now you, mneme, are making me suspicious, and I'm trying to seperate that from your attack on me (I don't like OMGUS, but I confess, it's really, really hard to be objective when people are attacking you, because you

know

the arguement is false, so it looks fabricated and awful and it's easy to assign scummy motives).

I'm going to clear my head and then re-read.

[Mert]

vote: AE

There is, of course, a chance that Glork protected her. But odds are with us here, especially since there was a time for him to respond to speculation claiming he didn't protect her.

Yes, I agree. She could have been protected or she could have just been fingered by Goatse as some kind of revenge thing for being on his wagon and "going by feeling", but I'm not keen to end up with such a WIFOM situation come endgame. I think AE is clearly the play for today. But we shouldn't lynch her until we've had some more content out of today, so I'll hold off on my vote for now - but unless something drastic happens, I'll be favouring an AE lynch today.

vote: AE

I think the chances of Glork protecting AE are low enough that this might be worth a shot. If we are wrong, however, then we'll be at 7, then 6 after the night. Therefore, if we do lynch wrong and I'm the one offed at night, don't forget to do a no lynch to bring it down to 5 players.

Minor FoS: Stewie

. That's a very rapid second vote. While agree with what you're saying in your post, I don't see any reason to just speed through today without discussion. I'll revisit this if AE turns up scum as a potential attempt to speed bus her.

This also means that it was in Ice's best interest to kill Glork, as if he had lived, he would have claimed his heal, and for all they know, it very well could have been me, as I am not one of them. They needed the uncertainty, because it was fairly obvious that I'd receive a lot of attention today.

Something about this is strange... it was in Ice's best interest to lynch Glork regardless - knowing both Fire were dead, they knew that a) Glork was not scum and b) their kill couldn't miss. They would have killed the claimed Doc anyway. The quoted part of your post seems like a lot of thought has gone into why Glork would be the best choice, yet it misses out the obvious conclusion. As I say, hard to put my finger on it, but something about the way this reads is strange.

I am pro-town, so I will not quietly let myself be lynched. But I also don't really want to spend all day defending myself.

Try to look at this objectively - if you were in our position and this happened to another player, would you really want them to live to endgame? If you

are

town then it's a real bummer for you, but as protown you have to recognise that your living to endgame will make things harder as we'll end up WIFOMing ourselves in circles. Do you agree that, from an objective standpoint, you're the obvious play today?

I think we should analyze the likelihood that she was protected and move forward from there.

I agree. I'm going to reread and see if there's anything between Glork and AE yesterday that implies he might have protected her.

Until it became very clear who the Fire mafia was, there was good reason not to find out Glork protection -- it helped the (fire) mafia as much as it did us if not more.

Mneme, you were on the Vendawagon the whole of yesterday, right from the very beginning. You

had

to have, at least to an extent, believed we were about to lynch the other Fire. Given that knowledge, it would have been completely obvious that with no roadblocks to lynching Glork that he would have died. While there was a reason not to find out who Glork protected, I disagree with your statement that it would have helped Fire as much if not more, given that you were actively trying to lynch the second Fire.

Either you believed Goatse was Fire and therefore should have been more open to having Glork claim before night, or you weren't sure of his alignment at all, in which case why didn't you say anything to that effect when he approached lynch?

FoS: Mneme

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

I'll reread Day One and answer this properly, but on gut I think I possibly would have protected LmL, though it's hard to say as Glork's claim and his reaction to it made me a little wary of him. Taking that aside though (assuming Glork wouldn't claim doc if I was), I think LmL's actions were, in the main, aimed at progressing the game and finding scum. That's not to say I consider him 100% protown because I don't, but given the mechanics of the game he probably would have been useful in either finding the second Fire at the very least.

But this is a hard question to ask because Glork

did

claim Doc and LmL

did

persue him more than I would have liked. Trying to assume that information wasn't there and put myself in a role I didn't have is complicated to say the least!

I've got some ideas on who might be AE's partner (and who might not be), but those can wait for if I'm still alive tomorrow.

So you have other suspects you'd like to look into but you don't want to reveal them... why? So you can have another round of kills to make sure it jives with the town consensus? If you genuinely fear dying tonight then why are you unwilling to share your thoughts today and instead rush toward a quicklynch today?

[Stewie]

vote: AE

I think the chances of Glork protecting AE are low enough that this might be worth a shot. If we are wrong, however, then we'll be at 7, then 6 after the night. Therefore, if we do lynch wrong and I'm the one offed at night, don't forget to do a no lynch to bring it down to 5 players.

Minor FoS: Stewie

. That's a very rapid second vote. While agree with what you're saying in your post, I don't see any reason to just speed through today without discussion. I'll revisit this if AE turns up scum as a potential attempt to speed bus her.

And I'll revisit this as a potential attempt to tie me to your scum buddy.

Oh, try not to call him "goatse." It brings back horrible flashbacks.

[mneme]

I am pro-town, so I will not quietly let myself be lynched. But I also don't really want to spend all day defending myself.

Try to look at this objectively - if you were in our position and this happened to another player, would you really want them to live to endgame?

Apologies for a bus?

Until it became very clear who the Fire mafia was, there was good reason not to find out Glork protection -- it helped the (fire) mafia as much as it did us if not more.

Mneme, you were on the Vendawagon the whole of yesterday, right from the very beginning. You

had

to have, at least to an extent, believed we were about to lynch the other Fire.

Indeed. And I got an inkling that AE was the Ice Vendagoat had targeted several posts in. But the end of the day crept up on me, and I didn't realize that I should have pushed Glork for AE vs !AE until after seeing Vendagoat's twilight-entering post. That said, I'm sure quite a lot of players were hitting themselves over that one -- since really, the question was up there since, oh, 243 or 247 (247 was a gimme).

I was also, at the time, avoiding telegraphing my suspicion of AE (for the same reason I'm avoiding telegraphing today -- it only helps the scum)

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

I think this is a non-question -- if I were the doc, I'd have come out on Day 1 to counter-claim Glork. But if I were Glork (which is more to the question)? Dunno. Maybe CTD, maybe AE (second to last on the xyz bandwagon, with Glork as the last), maybe Sefer.

I've got some ideas on who might be AE's partner (and who might not be), but those can wait for if I'm still alive tomorrow.

So you have other suspects you'd like to look into but you don't want to reveal them... why?

Because if they're wrong, I don't want the scum leaving me alive because of them. If they're right, I don't want the scum killing me because of it.

And frankly, they're not that important -- I don't have any more info than anyone else, and I'd rather have the scum make their kill tonight with as much info as there is in the game right now, not as much info as there is +50%.

If I weren't pretty confident of AE as mafia, I might think differently (then it would be interesting to hear of cross-suspisions), but assuming she's Ice, all cross-suspicions tell us at this point is who the Ice mafia will be more benefitted by killing.

If you genuinely fear dying tonight then why are you unwilling to share your thoughts today and instead rush toward a quicklynch today?

Of course I don't fear death. It comes to all in time. Who knows? Maybe me? Maybe even tonight.

But I'd really rather that I (and the town) win, and therefore see no reason to give the scum extra info at times that don't help the town -- whether I live to see the endgame or not.

There's also another reason a quicklynch is advantagous on very likely scum (catching hesitation from a partner on voting) -- but that mostly doesn't apply here, since AE is a good enough lynch that I almost expect a bus.

[mneme]

Stewie, just correcting your quotes...

vote: AE

I think the chances of Glork protecting AE are low enough that this might be worth a shot. If we are wrong, however, then we'll be at 7, then 6 after the night. Therefore, if we do lynch wrong and I'm the one offed at night, don't forget to do a no lynch to bring it down to 5 players.

Minor FoS: Stewie

. That's a very rapid second vote. While agree with what you're saying in your post, I don't see any reason to just speed through today without discussion. I'll revisit this if AE turns up scum as a potential attempt to speed bus her.

And I'll revisit this as a potential attempt to tie me to your scum buddy. :)

Oh, try not to call him "goatse." It brings back horrible flashbacks. :shock:

[Stewie]

Thanks, I suppose I deleted one [/quote] too many.

[AutumnEvenings]

All right, here are my thoughts on whom Glork might have protected going off of Day One:

AutumnEvenings

--likely, as he didn't seem to think I was scum
CrashTextDummie--uncertain, he did vote him but mainly because he was following LoudmouthLee, said CTD "could be useful regardless of allignment"

Crub

--unlikely, see post 76 and 140

Glork

--impossible, can't self-heal
LoudmouthLee (r. PBug)--I don't know. They argued a fair amount and Lee didn't buy his doc claim, but could be a likely kill. Really not sure.

Mert

--unlikely, see post 76.

mneme (r. Wizardcat)

--likely, as he didn't seem to think he was scum

MrBuddyLee

--very unlikely, as Glork nearly lynched him, and post 140

Sefer

--impossible, was killed

Stewie

--likely, as he didn't seem to think he was scum

Vendagoat

--very unlikely, as Glork was willing to switch over to lynch him at the end of the day.

xyzzy

--impossible, was lynched


I'll read his Day Two stuff in a bit, to see how he interacted with people, especially those I have on his "likely" list (me, mneme, Stewie)

[CrashTextDummie]

NOTE: This will probably be my last post in this game.
--------------

I actually find it distinctly possible that Glork protected AutumnEvenings. I couldn't find any obvious breadcrumbs in his D2 play, but he did argue pretty strongly about her not being Fire mafia and showed some interest in the people making cases for her being Ice mafia (LML specifically). It's nothing definitive, but certainly a possibility in my mind.

That said, I very much think that she should be lynched today. I don't think Vendagoat was lying when he said he tried to kill her (his hammer-post reeked of honest frustration), and since there's no way of knowing for sure whether Glork protected her, that's a chance I'm willing to take. In addition, I've been thinking that she's a a good candidate for Ice-scum even before Vendagoat revealed his information.

Speaking of which, here's a question for LML:

As of right now, I'm thinking a MBL / AE Ice mafia and a Goat / XYZ Fire Mafia. AE is the biggest "guess" of the bunch currently.

So you thought AE was Ice mafia before Vendagoat imploded. So far so good.

Now, we have a situation. We will NEVER know if AE was protected by Glork. So, Vendagoat could very easily just have attacked the protected AE. I'm rereading, and will post again after I find the said post.

Huh? Why does it suddenly sound like you're protecting her? Does the fact that Vendagoat fingered her make it

less

likely that she is scum?

From my point of view, I find mneme and Stewie's votes perfectly reasonable, because I was suspicious of AE on D2, and that suspicion was cemented by Vendagoat's confession. You were suspicious of her on D2 as well, yet your reaction is the complete opposite. I find that

very

curious.

Also, I'd still like you to answer this question from D2:

When and why did you drop your suspicion of me, LML?

I find it to be very unlike you to subtly drop a suspicion you voiced very strongly earlier on.

Apart from AE (who should be lynched), I find LML, and to a lesser extend Crub to be the most likely Ice mafiates. Although there's no one in this game I find explicitly trustworthy, I am currently not really suspicious of MBL, mneme and Mert.

Stewie has been creeping up there, though. He's still too quiet for my liking, and this post I found just odd:

I think the chances of Glork protecting AE are low enough that this might be worth a shot. If we are wrong, however, then we'll be at 7, then 6 after the night.

Therefore, if we do lynch wrong and I'm the one offed at night, don't forget to do a no lynch to bring it down to 5 players.

This game is full of capable players, and I'm sure none of us have to be told to no lynch with odd numbers in lylo. In that sense, it's an utterly useless comment. However, he does try to assure us that he's pro-town with it, which is completely uncalled for from a townie, and therefore a scumtell in my book.

If anyone has questions you want answered from me as opposed to my replacement, ask them quickly.

[Guardian]

somestrangeflea replaces CrashTextDummie, effective immediately! Welcome and thank him .

[AutumnEvenings]

I'm going to have extremely limited acces between now and the 25th. Appologies.

[AutumnEvenings]

Well, since yesterday was so quick (and since, you know, Vendagoat

self-hammered

), Glork really didn't get a chance to say much yesterday.

His post 219 is a bit of a defense of me, though really it's just logic, so I can't firmly say he protected me.

His post 249 also looks kind of like I was who he protected--it was fairly obvious that he thought LoudmouthLee was scum, so asking him in particular what he thought of the people who suspected me could me him (Glork) trying to force LmL put firm opinions on the thread, which is something I love doing to people who I think are scum. I mean, I think that's what he's doing; the question just is was he using me as the...uh...not litmus, but, well, that's as close as I can come, because he thought I was town (since the kill had failed and he'd protected me) or just because it was something Lee had talked about. And I'm not sure. *sigh*

He has no interaction with mneme, or anyone else really, except for FoSing Mert (252) and asking him about me.

His only interaction with Stewie was in 262, where he asked him to definitely claim "not doc" (along with CTD). That was his last post.

So basically, Glork really didn't interact with anyone much at all yesterday, except LmL. Given that he only made 6 posts, this isn't much of a surprise.

Given that nothing about his Day One play leads me to believe he

didn't

protect me, and that he did seem kind of interested in me (without ever seeming to suspect me) on Day Two, I think it's actually very likely that Glork did indeed protect me Night One.

------------

And, on another note, I get that you guys want to lynch me (and I'd be lying if I said that didn't frustrate the hell out of me, since I feel I've been very helpful and especially since no one seems to be able/willing to give an actual

reason

, other than "well, known (lying and rather rude) scum claimed to have tried to kill you and killed himself before the doc could speak"), but don't you have anything at all to say or do? I mean, yesterday was a very fast day, and like it or not, I

will

come up town. We don't have much to go on as far as the Ice mafia goes, and with pretty much just everyone going "yep, lynch Autumn" and not talking about anything else, it's very easy for the scum to blend in.

I'm about half-way done with my re-read, and I'll post it hopefully sometime before Tuesday.