Mafia 66: Freelancer - Game over!

[JordanA24]

Jordan do post a decent case. At least something for me to respond too which is worth my time.

I think my previous case was good enough. And you responded to it with WIFOM and over-defensiveness.

You know your not exactly smelling of roses yourself.

How so? I'm guessing here you're just trying to distract me from getting evidence against you.

[JDodge]

Estes I'm less sure enough.

But I'm fairly positive of Lowell and Jordan from their reactions; notice that they were the only ones "suspicious" enough of my lack of reasoning to FoS me.

[JordanA24]

But I'm fairly positive of Lowell and Jordan from their reactions; notice that they were the only ones "suspicious" enough of my lack of reasoning to FoS me.

This is poor reasoning JDodge. I was suspicious of it, you said you thought I was an SK with no previous warning, nor any evidence to support it, I asked why, and when you still refused to give evidence, so naturally, I thought you were just accusing me for the hell of it.

As well as this, Sir T hasn't posted here since you made the post, and Estes might well have missed it.

[Lowell]

Waitwaitwaitwait...

Did someone actually vote for me because of the "Fake Dayvig" claim??

Explain yourself, sir!

And seriously, no one else vote. Chill out for a minute.

[Lowell]

And everyone y'know our good friends the serials may well still not have a clue who who's who. Two of em could quite easily targeted MoS or Scope.

Nothing about the nightscene leads me to believe this. I think one targetted another.

Also, math-wise (someone tried this *ahem* poorly, already), it's twice as likely that one targeted another than two targeted the same person.

[YagamiLight]

I know it was pretty bad math, normally I"m pretty good, but it's been years since I've had Statistics. Also, I didn't vote you for the claim (I tried to explain to everyone about how it seems to be a unique townie claim) and I"m the only one to vote you after you claimed, and anyhow I'm going to

unvote

you because JDodge is looking pretty suspicious now. JDodge, the lack of reasoning wasn't suspicious to me because this SK only game seemed like it would be hard to find good reasoning, especially Day 1 and parts of Day 2. What's so suspicious is that you believe that Jordan and Lowell are suspicious for FoS'ing you for the lack of reasoning.

[yellowbounder]

Vote Count

6 - Lowell (Sir Tornado, ButteBlues, Estes, Qman, DYH, YogurtBandit)

1 - YagamiLight (Jalyn)
2 - Estes (theopor_COD, Lowell)
1 - theopor_COD (JordanA24)

5 - None (bethelmark, ChannelDelibird, Rand Althor, JDodge, YagamiLight)

With

15

alive, it's

8

to lynch.

YB's back. Sorry for my absence.

[Lowell]

Yagmi unvoted,

mod

. Throw me a bone, here.

[JDodge]

I know it was pretty bad math, normally I"m pretty good, but it's been years since I've had Statistics. Also, I didn't vote you for the claim (I tried to explain to everyone about how it seems to be a unique townie claim) and I"m the only one to vote you after you claimed, and anyhow I'm going to

unvote

you because JDodge is looking pretty suspicious now. JDodge, the lack of reasoning wasn't suspicious to me because this SK only game seemed like it would be hard to find good reasoning, especially Day 1 and parts of Day 2. What's so suspicious is that you believe that Jordan and Lowell are suspicious for FoS'ing you for the lack of reasoning.

What bugs me is that nobody that I

didn't

[/u] express suspicion of FoSed or otherwise found it odd.

[Jalyn]

JDodge - to be fair, I think most of the thread is focussed on the Lowell drama.

YL - Huh. You're right. Still a completely unreasonably short time period for a day.

ButteBlues didn't vote for Lowell based on the "dayvig" claim but apparently only because he was already voting for Lowell.

[Qman]

And everyone y'know our good friends the serials may well still not have a clue who who's who. Two of em could quite easily targeted MoS or Scope.

Nothing about the nightscene leads me to believe this. I think one targetted another.

Also, math-wise (someone tried this *ahem* poorly, already), it's twice as likely that one targeted another than two targeted the same person.

One SK:
1/18 = 5.56% chance of targeting x person.

Chance of two SK's targeting the same person:
1/18 * 1/18 = (0.0556 * 0.0556) 0.31% chance two Sk's targeted the same person.

For giggles:
Chance of three SK's targeting the same person:
1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18 = 0.02% chance of happening.

That said, in a game that just finished (Chinese New Year) two nights in a row the Mafia and SK targeted the same person for an NK. So it can happen. (Incidently, the odds of that happening two nights in a row are 0.09%)


Qman: Currently enrolled in Statistics

[Qman]

EBWOP:

I forgot to say, it's a hell of a lot more than twice as likely that an SK targetted another SK than a double targeting.. Around 12 times as likely.

[Lowell]

Whatever, this doesn't matter. But peopel who are bad at math annoy me (esp when they think they're good at it)

ROUGHLY:

16 players,

SK #1: chance of "repeating" hit on town 0/15
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's townie 1/15
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #3: chance of "repeating" hit on townie 2/15
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

It's twice as likely, not 12 times or whatever.

You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).

Anyway, carry on.

[YagamiLight]

Each SK picked 1/16, because ryan was dead, bringing it to 17, and they wont pick themselves. Also, it's about 6 times, because each of the 3 SK's has the 1/16 chance for both the other 2. Otherwise I think your right, again I could be wrong on this again.

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
Mine was meant towards Qman

[YagamiLight]

EBWOTP
Lowell, there were 17 before they killed, not 16.

[Qman]

Whatever, this doesn't matter. But peopel who are bad at math annoy me (esp when they think they're good at it)

ROUGHLY:

16 players,

SK #1: chance of "repeating" hit on town 0/15
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's townie 1/15
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #3: chance of "repeating" hit on townie 2/15
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

It's twice as likely, not 12 times or whatever.

You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).
Anyway, carry on.

Admitting I should hav eused a base of 17 since You chouldn't count yourself...

Your numbers aren't accurate at all. We are talking all targets, not just townies. Night 1. SK kills are independant events, not dependant.

Suing your numbers 13/15 * 1/15, you end up with a 5.8% chance of double targetting one person... that's HIGHER than the chance of one SK targeting ONE PERSON. (5.7%)

SK #1: chance of hitting X Target 1/17
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/17

SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's Target: 1/17*1/17 (Probablity mathematics on Independant events dictates A * B for the probablity.
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/17

SK #3: chance of "Double - repeating" hit SK'1 and SK's Target: 1/17 * 1/17 * 1/17
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/17

[Qman]

Hmm. Typo's galore in my prior post.
Anyways, the correct %'s.

1/17 = 5.88% chance of any one person being hit.

1/17 * 1/17 = 0.35% chance of a double target

1/17 * 1/17 * 1/17 0.02% chance of a triple target

[JordanA24]

Though, those numbers probably still don't mean much, since obviously, some players will be better targets than others.

[Qman]

You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).

Under any statistical analysis of INDEPENDANT EVENTS (SK night kills) You have to use one specific choice as a baseline.

If there are three people, 2 boys and 1 girl, your odds of choosing the girl are 33% (1/3).

If you choose again, it is still 33%. However as the results of the test are INDEPENDANT, your chance of choosing the girl both times is 0.33 * 0.33 = 10.89%.

Now if it was depedant (SK NK"s aren't) that chance would be 33% across the board since you are looking at each selection as a solitary event, rather than as a series.


The chances of 2 SK's targeting You are the same as 2 SK's targeting you, the fact that there are 14 other townies doesn't matter for crap beyond establishing the baseline of 17 targets to choose from.

[Qman]

Though, those numbers probably still don't mean much, since obviously, some players will be better targets than others.

Agreed, there are variable that this isn't accounting for (Players actions, SK's personal feelings, etc) but the hard line number without variables is a pretty damn small chance.

[YagamiLight]

We'll, I don't see reasons why the SK's would target specific people. If someone is finding a lot of scum tells on you (suppose an SK), and they die that night,it would be WIFOM to say you were scum, but it wouldn't matter as they already got attention on you. Based on this and that there are no power roles, it seems like random kills is all you really need, and what I would use if I were an SK.

[Qman]

EBWOP: (More in my flood of statistic's posts, yay numbers.)

The chances of 2 SK's targeting You are the same as 2 SK's targeting

you

Should be:

The chances of 2 SK's targeting you are the same as 2 SK's targeting

ME

[Qman]

We'll, I don't see reasons why the SK's would target specific people. If someone is finding a lot of scum tells on you (suppose an SK), and they die that night,it would be WIFOM to say you were scum, but it wouldn't matter as they already got attention on you. Based on this and that there are no power roles, it seems like random kills is all you really need, and what I would use if I were an SK.

The only reason that comes to mind for an SK to target someone outside randomness is if they suspect that person is an SK and want to confirm if they are or aren't. The Sk's do have to get the other SK's lynched, after all.

[Sir Tornado]

But I'm fairly positive of Lowell and Jordan from their reactions; notice that they were the only ones "suspicious" enough of my lack of reasoning to FoS me.

This is poor reasoning JDodge. I was suspicious of it, you said you thought I was an SK with no previous warning, nor any evidence to support it, I asked why, and when you still refused to give evidence, so naturally, I thought you were just accusing me for the hell of it.

As well as this, Sir T hasn't posted here since you made the post, and Estes might well have missed it.

I have seen it. I have also seen JDodge pull out similar comments (which turned out entire false) in another game I was in with him, which was why I did not bother to comment.