Lowell wrote:Whatever, this doesn't matter. But peopel who are bad at math annoy me (esp when they think they're good at it)
ROUGHLY:
16 players,
SK #1: chance of "repeating" hit on town 0/15
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/15
SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's townie 1/15
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/15
SK #3: chance of "repeating" hit on townie 2/15
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/15
It's twice as likely, not 12 times or whatever.
You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).
Anyway, carry on.
Admitting I should hav eused a base of 17 since You chouldn't count yourself...
Your numbers aren't accurate at all. We are talking all targets, not just townies. Night 1. SK kills are independant events, not dependant.
Suing your numbers 13/15 * 1/15, you end up with a 5.8% chance of double targetting one person... that's HIGHER than the chance of one SK targeting ONE PERSON. (5.7%)
SK #1: chance of hitting X Target 1/17
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/17
SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's Target: 1/17*1/17 (Probablity mathematics on Independant events dictates A * B for the probablity.
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/17
SK #3: chance of "Double - repeating" hit SK'1 and SK's Target: 1/17 * 1/17 * 1/17
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/17