In post 7993, LlamaFluff wrote:@AA - Can you run the numbers on win chances? Its probably not too difficult but I wont have time to run them myself for a few days.
So I spent some time go over the setup... So here are my findings. Please let me know what you think about this. I am not sure If i have used right logic here.. if not, please feel free to correct me.
Win Chances Calculator - Please follow the below link.. This calculator was built by someone (I have no idea) but i do know it exists and it is pretty easy to use it especially to see win chances by % with no of players.
Town: 59.69% Win chances, However this will not be accurate as Mafia have vengeful so Mafia three additional chances to get rid of a confirmed townie which increases the win chance for team mafia between 45% to 53%
My conclusion is town may have max of 53% chances of winning where as mafia may have min 45% chances of loosing. Hope this make some sense.
Or if there are any alternate method to calculate this.. Please do let me know.. thank you!!!
Which according to the calculator is them picking 10% better then random.
Essentially it's an 8v3 nightless (3 venge kills all taken out as these are certain to happen)
An 8v3 for popcorn is a weaker mafia and a stronger town then your generally given, and even with the misplacing of the gun it is probably a lot more town sided then popcorn.
And because the gun is always on the most scummy person anyway it's not like a townie person will get the gun to kill themselves on the vengeful mafia.
Returning win rate: 4/1, 80%
In the process of creating a game to mod, we will see what it holds.
Which according to the calculator is them picking 10% better then random.
Essentially it's an 8v3 nightless (3 venge kills all taken out as these are certain to happen)
An 8v3 for popcorn is a weaker mafia and a stronger town then your generally given, and even with the misplacing of the gun it is probably a lot more town sided then popcorn.
And because the gun is always on the most scummy person anyway it's not like a townie person will get the gun to kill themselves on the vengeful mafia.
I see your point. And a good alternate is to make this is 18P open game because 8vs4 giving increasing mafia win chances to 50% and brought town win chances to 58%
In post 8009, JasonWazza wrote:OK so apparently i played a different popcorn mafia (this one) and wasn't aware that voting was a thing.
I am surprised, the earlier games I played had something like this and another one didn't. the micro games I have run had an option to vote. I think it is safe to have vote. What if Gun bearer doesn't want to shoot being scared by Vengeful goon?
I really like the domination concept. 6-3 isn't in favor of town at all and I don't see how the current mechanics change the EV that much. As for possible PR, JK, Doc or Watcher/Tracker would too powerful in my opinion unless they get their powers if they're voted.
Re: Domination
So the only way for mafia to die is for two to vote two of them into the thing?
It's pointless making the the game continue after two die then, as town will town who the third is.
I guess mafia may need to decide when to wifom someone if the other is likely to be brought up.
But town's best play is to just keep sending the person scum didn't kill to the chopping block.
Holder of the Longest Continuous Weekly Mafiascum Post Record. 1 July 2012 - 16 Feb 2023
*It may be held by someone else if you discount the major downtime in 2012 and 2014, I'm not doing the research.
Best solution is probably making it White Flag though.
Edit: Wait no. Cause the first mafia to die will probably get the second mafia killed as well. So normally two mafia will be caught at once and then the third just has to be caught.
Edit2: Double nope, cause once one mafia is found they have to find both of the other two to kill them so never mind.
@thesupertriomusical on Instagram, come see it if you’re in LA area, I wrote it!
Which according to the calculator is them picking 10% better then random.
Essentially it's an 8v3 nightless (3 venge kills all taken out as these are certain to happen)
An 8v3 for popcorn is a weaker mafia and a stronger town then your generally given, and even with the misplacing of the gun it is probably a lot more town sided then popcorn.
And because the gun is always on the most scummy person anyway it's not like a townie person will get the gun to kill themselves on the vengeful mafia.
I see your point. And a good alternate is to make this is 18P open game because 8vs4 giving increasing mafia win chances to 50% and brought town win chances to 58%
With that said.. the updated setup is...
3 Vengeful Mafia
4 Mafia Goons
11 Townies ( Including Gun bearer)
(Mafia will have Day Talk, Night less)
Any comments on this?
Few thoughts on this
1) I don't like being able to vote because that may just make the best play once you find someone town thinks is smart get the gun and then lynch regularly using them as confirmed town in nightless
2) You need to make a wiki page with sample roles, etc before this can be ran