Twin Trap (Game Over) [TM2015]

[Quilford]

I don't think you even deserve regfan's case since you have no interest in my teammates' opinion.

As previously stated, I want the Regfan case just so I can confirm it exists, not because I care what it says.

[Quilford]

There are cited post numbers that you can go look up yourself. I assure you my analysis of you will have direct quotes.

whoooooosh

[BipolarChemist]

@BPC: This:
Also, I mostly liked her RVS posts. So overall, weak town? There are a bunch of people I like more than her.

TBH, right now, I think Quilford is about as likely to be scum as Mara is. (I want this on the record, in the unlikely event I die and someone goes, "Ooh, Quilford wouldn't have posted on D1.") I think he'd be a really awful lynch for today, because his alignment will become really clear soon. But don't let him coast on, "Look, I'm town I'm town I'm town I'm town I'm town!" Eventually, he'll scumhunt more organically.

At the time of reading this post, this is approximately where I'm at with Mara and Quilford (Quilford to a lesser extent on your reasons, I don't know his meta, just interactions on site chat). I'm assuming with his recent play, you're reading him as 'scumhunting organically'?

BPC I interact with a lot on Skype, but I've never seen him in a Mafia game before.

Maybe more a hypothetical question, but I'm curious. What would you expect my play to be like before this game started?

Tbh I agree that if I only had the second half of his iso he wouldn't be that suspicious. But I do think scum are often at their most nervous in the opening posts, and I wouldn't expect scum alchemist to keep posting pure filler after being called on that very thing.

I wouldn't expect town alchemist to do this either. I know I've had a couple games where I started out mostly bullshitting around because I wanted to have fun and kept real game talk light. Not saying it's a good idea, but I can understand it at least.

BPC is also null, as I've already said I didn't like his early fencesitting. I also hate hate hated when he said Mina was 'blatantly not caring about reads' in #114, it seemed like hilariously over-the-top rhetoric in the way that scum are sometimes prone to (Mina also took issue with it, which is another reason I forgot to mention why I like her for town). But aside from his 40 hr absence a little back, he has been pretty engaged.

I'll accept the comments on earlier fencesitting. I generally mostly pick up on stuff that isn't very logical, so statements about this thing meaning so and so could be scum, where I just don't think it could go either way. These things are what come out at me most and I can see how that would put me as fencesitting. But for the Mina thing, I gave an explanation for why I didn't think she was caring about her reads in 118. The way I had seen her post 79 was that she was saying "I'm skimming the game and haven't followed up on post numbers" yet she was pulling off a "she's fine right now" read on ETL, despite a number of people calling our some logical gaps in her posting. I felt like she had ignored/wrote of ETL at this point, especially with comments like "I'm sort of skimming right now". Hence, not caring about reads.

@Patrick: In your post 412, you mentioned reads on most players in the game and mentioned me a few times, but with no read. What's your read on me?

I guess misrep was a bit exaggerated, but I don't think I was being unclear about my intent toward mina, and I don't like that she attacked the way in which I presented my points rather than respond to the content.

I had a question in post 352. Plz rspnd thx

maybe town? {serra}

Reasons please!

[Alchemist21]

Quilford-related posts incoming:

Spoiler:

Anyway sleepy times! I have reads but HAH you aint gettin none of that yet folks

Me telling you my reads is not going to solve the problem of you not having any. Nevertheless, I basically did so in my most recent post.

I'm not going to produce a reads list. But I will talk you through anything you're unsure about in my posting.

Mina I think we're in agreement about basically everything

From the very start, Quilford keeps his reads list a secret from everyone. The only reads that could be inferred from his posts up to this point are a Townread on Mina, a scumread on me, and arguably a scumread on ETL (I'm not sure of he was actually scumreading her or just pushing her there).

Now look at his interaction with Mina.

Hey Mina what does your team say about me :3

Teehee! I like Mina's posts.

Mina I think we're in agreement about basically everything

Quilford, as a fair warning I don't think you're going to get anything productive by continuing to argue with Alchemist at this point. I think the case has been made, and turning this into a back-and-forth might start to bog up the thread. Remember the adage about not convincing scum that they're scum?

YES, MOOOOM

I think it's really weird that BPC is assigning his own reasons for

my

read.

Can you explain this?

I think I understand what was going on here, if you want me to explain.

The overall impression I get here is that he's acting very buddy-buddy to Mina, whom he's Townreading for *reasons*. He says he agrees with her on virtually everything, but he never shows us his own thoughts. He seems pretty attached to Mina and looks like he's trying to keep on her good side the whole game.

Oh hey! Thoughts!

Regfan is wrong and we both know it, Mina. You know I would be a ball of catatonic gibbering nervousness as scum right now.

Nevertheless I will tell you more about my reads sometime soon, but it's 3 am and I have no idea why I'm awake so not now.

Alchemist is becoming increasingly desperate, his accusation to BBmolla of 'vote parking' and his attempts to bring other people's meta on him prove it. What matters is that he has not produced any read or gone through any process of scumhunting that was not in reaction to someone calling him scum. Anyone can lash out at their attackers when they feel their life is on the line, but

only town can convincingly display their thought process as they pick through pieces of people's posts to try and figure out who scum is,

and Alchemist has been doing none of that.

You clearly don't know what scumhunting is. Scumhunting =/= posting reads lists.

Your assumption that I sheeped Mina rests on no solid evidence but on the presupposition that I'm scum, which itself is what you're trying to prove by arguing that I sheeped Mina. In fact, if you looked inside my Team PT you would see that at 8:59.17 am, a full hour before Mina made her reads post in thread, I posted a reads list basically the same as Mina's bar the position of two names.

This is the same thing as what you're doing when you accused BBmolla of looking like scum parking his vote. There's nothing to say that BBmolla isn't just town who is convinced of your alignment. You're just assuming he's scum and then using that to frame his actions as scummy, instead of any inherent scumminess in them. This is precisely how scum fake scumhunting, and you are doing it right now.

You saw people start to scumread me and decided to hop on that wagon. You've been opportunistic, and you expect us to have some blind faith that you're Town?

Again, what you are doing is assuming that I am scum, and describing my behaviour 'in light' of that fact.

I can equally say that the fact that I hopped on your wagon after other people did is (1) not relevant, since I arrived at the conclusion that you were scum independently; (2) except in the sense that I was bolstered to vote for you by the fact that other people who I thought were town were now scumreading you.

Neither of us can prove either version of events. But you're the one using your version of events to argue that I'm scum, which is the thing you're supposing in the first place to build your version of events. It's embedded in the very language you used: 'decided to hop on', 'being opportunistic'.

These are the first actually substantial posts from Quilford, and they are all geared at shooting me down along with my scumreads on him and BBMolla. His main argument here is that I'm assuming he's scum, and adds that he came to conclusions independently, and nothing indicated BBMolla wasn't Town who just agreed with the wagon.

Look carefully at the bolded in the first quote. Quilford thinks only Town can convincingly display their thought processes as they figure out alignments, but up until this point his thought processes have been some big super-duper secret.

Right.

Mina is definitely my strongest townread. Early on, she noticed that BPC, despite having made a couple of fairly incisive points (I particularly liked the olive branch comment in #20 and the point about Mara's post being the type to draw attention to itself in #56), wasn't actually drawing any conclusions from them. In fact some of what he was saying had a kind of 'defusing' effect: all of his points in posts #56, #71 and #72, for example, kind of counterweight any scumpoints with townpoints. The points taken individually aren't bad—sometimes things just are alignment-inconclusive!—but because they made up the bulk of what he was saying at the time, it seemed that he was just being generally wishy-washy.

Now, I didn't notice that BPC was being cumulatively pretty fence-sitty until Mina pointed it out in #74 and #79. When I read those posts by Mina and had a second look at BPC, I was kind of thrilled to notice that there was this entire angle on BPC's posting that I had completely missed. So I started to lean pretty heavily towards Mina-town from that point forward.

My read on Mina was further strengthened when she posted nearly exactly the same reads in #144 as I had in my team's PT an hour earlier. I was pretty certain then that we were on similar wavelengths, and that accordingly she was more likely to be town.

The other town thing is the frequency and naturalness of how she posts her teammates' reads in-thread and compares them with her own. I really just think that, had she drawn scum, it would not be possible for her teammates to sustain this for so long.

I would like Regfan's case on me, though, just so I can confirm it exists.

Okay so there's no googly eyes moment like I had with Mina with anyone else who I think is town.

But I do like Patrick, because he was the first to bring up Alchemist. Until then I was kind of iffy about Al, because Al was asking too many questions and responding to people's thoughts rather than having any original ones of his own, but I also thought he hadn't spent a lot of time on the site (he's definitely the least experienced player here) #55 was too cheeky for newbscum, and he could just be newbtown. So I had kind of filed him under 'look into later' in my head.

But when Patrick brought up #121, I was like 'maybe I should take a closer look'. Then I realised that Al had posted

literally no reads

, almost all of his posts were part of trivial back-and-forths with people, and that he had done no digging after people's motivations of his own.

So I credit Patrick with putting me onto my first substantial scumread. I also like his meta-awareness about how Day 1 lynches tend to pan out in #311, because I find it very very relatable.

I am given slight pause by how easily he dismissed a lot of the early game in #121, and I'm unconvinced by his read on serra, but on the whole I think he's likely to be Town and at the very least isn't somewhere we should be going with today's lynch.

As I've mentioned above, BBmolla is firmly in the 'AAARGH' pile because on the one hand his blend of total nonchalance and utter self-conciousness strikes me as very town (I think it reminds me of me a little). Hilariously, though, I really don't like his reads, they seem pretty shallow and surface-level (I think #246 is the

worst

reason to think Alchemist is scum, I don't see what BB is seeing at all in #183), but how detailed can you get when you're only using max 3 sentences per post?? Which is how BB tends to roll independent of alignment if I remember correctly. In conclusion, asfhasjkfhaskldjh and I want you to go further into your read on ETL please.

I lean town on ETL because I think #49 and #52 contained a neat little flash of insight ("Everyones town until I find a reason for them being scum" seems very unusual to me too), and I like her response to BBmolla in #370. However I feel like her posting has changed since her 3-day absence and it weirds me out a bit.

Marangal I am just flat-out not sure about. I really disagree with her reasons for thinking Alchemist is town and I think they are in conflict with the fundamental conceit of 'uninformed majority vs informed minority' (I really, really don't think refusing to push another wagon is something an uninformed townie would do), but she has explained them convincingly enough. I wish she would talk more about her scumreads, they don't strike me as particularly strongly-held.

BPC is also null, as I've already said I didn't like his early fencesitting. I also hate hate hated when he said Mina was 'blatantly not caring about reads' in #114, it seemed like hilariously over-the-top rhetoric in the way that scum are sometimes prone to (Mina also took issue with it, which is another reason I forgot to mention why I like her for town). But aside from his 40 hr absence a little back, he has been pretty engaged.

I have no idea whatsoever about serra. Like, none. I get town vibes and scum vibes off things but it's all gut. I should probably do some meta.

I was starting to waver a teeny bit on Alchemist because he actually posted some reasoning for me being scum that wasn't 'uuuuh he's not scumhunting' without any further elaboration. But no, fuck that. His reasoning for his reads is still abysmal, there's just more of it now. I think most of my worry here comes from the fact that he's actually at L-1 now. In TM2012 I started to waver on Captain Ajax when he was really close to being lynched (until he made an awful fakeclaim), and he was scum, and I'm scared I'm going to lose my nerve here too, despite Al being my biggest scumread by miles.

Gah.

These are actually really good posts for showing us his thoughts, and for what it's worth they made me feel slightly better about him. I can see him reasonably thinking all these things when at the time he says they happened. The reason I only feel slightly better by them is the timing and how they came about. Did we get to see them around the time they happened? No. We see it several hundred posts after the fact and three seperate people had asked him to start engaging the other players. I think Town players would have given something (didn't have to be as detailed, but SOMETHING) around the time they stated feeling one way, or if not then at least when asked.

I'll end this by throwing Quilford 3 bones and a question or two.

1. When Quilford went on about how he thinks I'm the obvscum and why other people weren't seeing this, well, that's a lot how I feel about him. That planted a small seed of doubt in my mind that there was a small chance he may actually be Town.

2. I actually like his posts at the end there. They don't have to be as detailed, but if I see him regularly posting things like this from now on, he might be able to convince me he's Town.

3. ABR came in our PT today, looked over this game, and said he thinks you're Town. He also says Mina is scum though, and he wouldn't give reasons for either read beyond he knows Mina in real life.

Now the question. Say I'm lynched today. I flip Town. Who do you go for next?

I think if you actually turn out to be Town, then scum are probably comfortable with the TvT noise.

[Quilford]

Say I'm lynched today. I flip Town. Who do you go for next?

I'll pass, thanks.

[Quilford]

Your first sentence flatly contradicts your second and fourth quotes of me, and that is just the first hole in a very ramshackle case.

[Quilford]

You are still not scumhunting. Your case is basically you characterising the general thrust of groups of posts I have made. At no point do you actually delve into anything that resembles a detailed analysis of the language I'm using. There are no little things that ping your scumdar or gut one way or the other. Even in the posts you like there is no examination of why they feel genuine, or whether you agree with specific reads. Your entire case consists of a few applications of 'Here, Quilford does X. I do/don't like this.' That is not how town plays the game. It is how scum plays the game, because they're given everyone's alignments, so they don't have any reasoning behind why player X is alignment Y because either the mod told them or the mod told them something else and they're deliberately lying.

[Quilford]

Miiiiina every time you forget to post the Regfan case, Catbug gets angrierrrr

[Alchemist21]

Needs a moustache.

[Mina]

Miiiiina every time you forget to post the Regfan case, Catbug gets angrierrrr

Gah, I only have phone access until probably tomorrow, and I'm supposed to be socializing with family.

Just because you're impatient, and also because I acknowledge this is kind of time-sensitive (*three days later* "Here's the case that I totally didn't make up!"), I'll be rude.

From the Skype messages where he calls the scum team: he says your interactions with Alchemist look awkward and like distancing. Also, that you're buddying up to me and seem reluctant to out your reads.

From his reads list in the PT: there's a discrepancy in tone between some of your posts (not sure I fully get this one), he thinks you're just trying to look busy in 142 when you already townread me, the timing and feel of your Alchemist vote felt like distancing, you undersell your scum play in 199 and have mechanical reasons for suspecting Alch that make him think you have inside knowledge.

Oh, he also said your reads in The Second Fortnight were a lot more intuitive.

Everyone else will have to wait until tomorrow for Mina answers. But you can survive 16 whole hours without a post from me

assuming I can

.

[Quilford]

Oh wait you posted it

[Quilford]

Ok cool, thanks for posting

[Quilford]

Hi Regfan! I look forward to our next Sydmeet (: (: (:

[zoraster]

Day 1

*** Alchemist21 ( 4 ) ***

Patrick

Quilford

BBMolla

Serrapaladin

[/color]

(L - 1 )

Mina ( 1 )

BipolarChemist

[/color]

(L - 4 )

Patrick ( 2 )

Ms Marangal

EspeciallyTheLies

[/color]

(L - 3 )

Quilford ( 1 )

Alchemist21

[/color]

(L - 4 )

Not Voting ( 1 )

Mina

Total Votes ( 9 )

Needed to Lynch [ 5 ]

Deadline: April 14th at 20:00 EDT
(expired on 2015-04-14 20:00:00)

[Patrick]

Tbh I agree that if I only had the second half of his iso he wouldn't be that suspicious. But I do think scum are often at their most nervous in the opening posts, and I wouldn't expect scum alchemist to keep posting pure filler after being called on that very thing.

I wouldn't expect town alchemist to do this either. I know I've had a couple games where I started out mostly bullshitting around because I wanted to have fun and kept real game talk light. Not saying it's a good idea, but I can understand it at least.

To clarify, I'm making an argument there for why I think he could still be scum despite the obvious upswing in content. I think maybe you read it the other way.

@Patrick: In your post 412, you mentioned reads on most players in the game and mentioned me a few times, but with no read. What's your read on me?

Mildly town. I can elaborate on this if wanted, but I'm interested in why you wanted my read on you?

[Patrick]

I took a look at Alchemists posts in some completed games and I think his early posts here seem closer to his scumgame. His play in Elemental Mafia had the same wariness and his play in a bunch of town games seemed more relaxed early on. Would appreciate someone else (probably not Quilford) looking at these and checking my vision.

[Patrick]

Apparently, I'll have to come right out and say that Patrick looks really town, and this wagon is bad.

I've floated it around a bit in our skypechat and got no real comments either way, but I have to ask; how are you reading me so comfortably? This is probably pretty annoying if you are just town who's playing rather well, but your approach to me is not what I expected at all.

[Mina]

Back! I'm sorry, because I'm going to spam the thread by answering stuff one post at a time.

@Patrick: this post pretty much sealed the read for my team. But beyond that, there are a bunch of little comments here and there that look like sincere scumhunting, casual references to your team discussions, deliberations while reading meta... None of them look calculated. If you were just generically competent and making Standard Intelligent Scumhunting Posts, I'd probably be a bit more paranoid, but you come across as very genuine and transparent about your thought process and doubts. (I think I've seen you play as both alignments in some meet game or other, and got the impression that "Town Patrick = obvtown," "Scum Patrick = protown," but I don't remember specifics.)

But that's enough compliments for this game.

ETL, what do you think of all this?

[Mina]

And I'm sort of caught between not wanting to derail a potential lynch on scum right now (not to mention deal with all the "Why didn't you push him harder?" pestering tomorrow) and...basically how Patrick says he doesn't feel about Alchemist.

Can you clarify what that means? From your post it seems like you have quite alot of doubt.

I was talking about this post, because you said this soon after Alchemist started coming in with the "my teammates say this" stuff that felt much better than his prior stuff and gave me a sort of sinking dread.

(Yes, I know we're sort of attacking each other for similar things here. The difference is I'm obviously town and can do whatever I want! ^_^ Neener neener.

Why? Genuine question, feel free to self-meta.

In all honesty, I think the strongest reason to townread me is Regfan, because our team interactions should really be blatantly genuine at this point.

Any self-meta answer I give is a lot more subjective and possibly inaccurate, because, e.g., I'm sure I'd be a lot more nervous and less loose in my posting as scum, but it's hard to gauge how much of my mental state comes across in the thread. (And obviously I'd try to look town as scum and fake being loose!) In part because I was posting from work, my early play was very close to my chest, and geared more towards gaining reactions/reads than looking town--I think I'd be a bit more conservative as scum (but this is why self-meta sucks, because I can't predict exactly what I'd do or whether I'd be in the right headspace or brave enough to pull this off). I've been trying to be a bit more transparent with my thought process since a few people started looking at me sideways, even though my thought process tends to be a wishy-washy mess most of the time.

I mean, I don't mind a bit of mild "MAYBE SHE'S REALLY SCUM BECAUSE SHE'S MACHIAVELLI WHO COULD WRAP THE TOWN AROUND HER FINGER" paranoia (I don't get enough compliments nowadays, so I'll pretend you've actually read my scumgames to get that impression), but I think I've been obviously scumhunting and playing toward a town wincon, and I don't feel like actively trying to look more town than I do. At least, I think my play is town enough as a whole that serrapaladin's little digs seem to be taking points out of context while not looking at everything else I've done.

[Mina]

At the time of reading this post, this is approximately where I'm at with Mara and Quilford (Quilford to a lesser extent on your reasons, I don't know his meta, just interactions on site chat). I'm assuming with his recent play, you're reading him as 'scumhunting organically'?

Like I said, "organically" probably wasn't the right word. But I had vestigial paranoia that he would only scumhunt superficially and rely on the "I suck as scum, I used town tokens, I'm totally town!" bravado that has helped Tammy carry scum games. Those posts eliminated that doubt. And also, they just look really really town (but don't tell Quilford). I don't want to oversell my knowledge of Quilford's meta, since it's more "general idea of his competence level as scum", but this is definitely not his scumgame.

BPC I interact with a lot on Skype, but I've never seen him in a Mafia game before.

Maybe more a hypothetical question, but I'm curious. What would you expect my play to be like before this game started?[/quote]
Probably nice, and a bit soft and wishy-washy regardless of alignment. I was also expecting you to be manipulative and hard to read (since you'd mentioned coming second in that Survivor game and losing due to your ruthlessness, and also since you're charming and good with people), and Molla seemed to corroborate this at first. You and ETL say otherwise, though.

[zoraster]

Mara and BB have both been prodded. Remember that teams have the responsibility for replacing inactive players, not mods, but I will generally prod after 48 hours if it is not the weekend.

[Ms Marangal]

Also,

vla for Easter

may be around tomorrow or Friday but don't count on it. Will for sure will be back on Tuesday though

Also, I think this was missed?

This effectively means I won't be around this weekend, and might not be around tomorrow or Monday

Pedit: kinda

You also talked. Alot.

Ms Marangal is V/LA 3/31-4/7

[Ms Marangal]

I also asked Mina something forever ago and it never got answered, and it was important

[Mina]

I don't see it anywhere in your ISO. (Unless you mean why Quilford is town, which I answered and which has different/stronger reasons now, anyway). Do you remember what it was?

[BBmolla]

Posting