Twin Trap (Game Over) [TM2015]

[Quilford]

Right.

Mina is definitely my strongest townread. Early on, she noticed that BPC, despite having made a couple of fairly incisive points (I particularly liked the olive branch comment in #20 and the point about Mara's post being the type to draw attention to itself in #56), wasn't actually drawing any conclusions from them. In fact some of what he was saying had a kind of 'defusing' effect: all of his points in posts #56, #71 and #72, for example, kind of counterweight any scumpoints with townpoints. The points taken individually aren't bad—sometimes things just are alignment-inconclusive!—but because they made up the bulk of what he was saying at the time, it seemed that he was just being generally wishy-washy.

Now, I didn't notice that BPC was being cumulatively pretty fence-sitty until Mina pointed it out in #74 and #79. When I read those posts by Mina and had a second look at BPC, I was kind of thrilled to notice that there was this entire angle on BPC's posting that I had completely missed. So I started to lean pretty heavily towards Mina-town from that point forward.

My read on Mina was further strengthened when she posted nearly exactly the same reads in #144 as I had in my team's PT an hour earlier. I was pretty certain then that we were on similar wavelengths, and that accordingly she was more likely to be town.

The other town thing is the frequency and naturalness of how she posts her teammates' reads in-thread and compares them with her own. I really just think that, had she drawn scum, it would not be possible for her teammates to sustain this for so long.

I would like Regfan's case on me, though, just so I can confirm it exists.

[Quilford]

just so I can confirm it exists.

And isn't terrible.

[BBmolla]

what about me quil

[Quilford]

HOLLA MOLLA

Hey you know how everyone seems to have that person where they are like 'muuh I can never read this person'?

You are that person for me. And I've never said anything because I have too much pride. BUT ILL TRY TO READ YOU ANYWAY but not until I talk about other people first.

[BBmolla]

I think I'm pretty easy to read

but k

[Quilford]

Everyone thinks you're pretty easy to read! Except me. ;-;

[Quilford]

Okay so there's no googly eyes moment like I had with Mina with anyone else who I think is town.

But I do like Patrick, because he was the first to bring up Alchemist. Until then I was kind of iffy about Al, because Al was asking too many questions and responding to people's thoughts rather than having any original ones of his own, but I also thought he hadn't spent a lot of time on the site (he's definitely the least experienced player here) #55 was too cheeky for newbscum, and he could just be newbtown. So I had kind of filed him under 'look into later' in my head.

But when Patrick brought up #121, I was like 'maybe I should take a closer look'. Then I realised that Al had posted

literally no reads

, almost all of his posts were part of trivial back-and-forths with people, and that he had done no digging after people's motivations of his own.

So I credit Patrick with putting me onto my first substantial scumread. I also like his meta-awareness about how Day 1 lynches tend to pan out in #311, because I find it very very relatable.

I am given slight pause by how easily he dismissed a lot of the early game in #121, and I'm unconvinced by his read on serra, but on the whole I think he's likely to be Town and at the very least isn't somewhere we should be going with today's lynch.

[Quilford]

As I've mentioned above, BBmolla is firmly in the 'AAARGH' pile because on the one hand his blend of total nonchalance and utter self-conciousness strikes me as very town (I think it reminds me of me a little). Hilariously, though, I really don't like his reads, they seem pretty shallow and surface-level (I think #246 is the

worst

reason to think Alchemist is scum, I don't see what BB is seeing at all in #183), but how detailed can you get when you're only using max 3 sentences per post?? Which is how BB tends to roll independent of alignment if I remember correctly. In conclusion, asfhasjkfhaskldjh and I want you to go further into your read on ETL please.

I lean town on ETL because I think #49 and #52 contained a neat little flash of insight ("Everyones town until I find a reason for them being scum" seems very unusual to me too), and I like her response to BBmolla in #370. However I feel like her posting has changed since her 3-day absence and it weirds me out a bit.

Marangal I am just flat-out not sure about. I really disagree with her reasons for thinking Alchemist is town and I think they are in conflict with the fundamental conceit of 'uninformed majority vs informed minority' (I really, really don't think refusing to push another wagon is something an uninformed townie would do), but she has explained them convincingly enough. I wish she would talk more about her scumreads, they don't strike me as particularly strongly-held.

[Quilford]

BPC is also null, as I've already said I didn't like his early fencesitting. I also hate hate hated when he said Mina was 'blatantly not caring about reads' in #114, it seemed like hilariously over-the-top rhetoric in the way that scum are sometimes prone to (Mina also took issue with it, which is another reason I forgot to mention why I like her for town). But aside from his 40 hr absence a little back, he has been pretty engaged.

I have no idea whatsoever about serra. Like, none. I get town vibes and scum vibes off things but it's all gut. I should probably do some meta.

[Quilford]

I was starting to waver a teeny bit on Alchemist because he actually posted some reasoning for me being scum that wasn't 'uuuuh he's not scumhunting' without any further elaboration. But no, fuck that. His reasoning for his reads is still abysmal, there's just more of it now. I think most of my worry here comes from the fact that he's actually at L-1 now. In TM2012 I started to waver on Captain Ajax when he was really close to being lynched (until he made an awful fakeclaim), and he was scum, and I'm scared I'm going to lose my nerve here too, despite Al being my biggest scumread by miles.

Gah.

[Quilford]

Anyway thanks in advance for all the townreads guys

[Patrick]

Ok so I just lost a whole ton of post ffs.

In response to Mara, you're changing what I said in a way that makes it look worse. I said that I often get a gut feeling about the day 1 mislynch being town, especially if inexperienced, and that I actually don't get that feeling here, which might mean the first wagon is correct. Your portrayal makes me sound like a rabid squirrel.

[Patrick]

I really really want to write off Quilford as obvious town, but a couple of things give me pause; his vote on Alchemist after saying he might be newbtown, even though nothing much happened in between, and how long he spent just arguing with Alchemist. If Quilford is town, his reason for voting Alchemist then was simply reconsidering in light of what I wrote, which is plausible but the timing catches my attention. Overall he sounds like chilled town most of the time and most likely thats because he simply is town, but don't rule him out from playing a good scumgame.

Mara I also think is likely town, and she will probably piss me off incredibly this game unless Alchemist gets lynched as scum and I'm nightkilled. Her view of the game seems off but pretty genuine, and reminds me of the only forum game of hers I've read, mykonians maneuvre mafia. Her vote on CDB there feels similar to her vote on me here.

serra I could easily imagine being scum. Reading his exchange more closely with Mina, I think his accusation of Mina word-twisting is a stretch. His comments on liking BPC's point against Mina left his wiggle room to pursue her or to sit back, and granted some people just post like this, but I don't think Mina is misrepping anything at all there.

ETL meh. Early on she feels natural, and CDB told me to never lynch her because of her post at the bottom pf page 1. Her recent posts don't really make me feel anything.

Mina's posting looks good, but more than most I think she would be capable of playing well as scum and producing quite detailed posts. I didn't like her push on BPC early, do like her attempt to get Quilford to talk about players other than Alchemist. I'm not especially happy with the number of townreads on her.

[Patrick]

This is maneuvre mafia, where I think Mara seems similarish in tone:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=39330

[Patrick]

Currently I can't think of a better place for my vote than Alchemist. I think serrapaladin comes closest, but I've changed my mind a few times on whether his last two posts are genuinely scummy or just a different perspective on some things. No other vote really appeals to me at the moment.

[Quilford]

his vote on Alchemist after saying he might be newbtown, even though nothing much happened in between

What happened in between was that I actually ISO'd him, as I mentioned above.

[Patrick]

As I mentioned too.

[Quilford]

Whoops.

[Mina]

Anyway thanks in advance for all the townreads guys

VOTE: Quilford

[Patrick]

I am given slight pause by how easily he dismissed a lot of the early game in #121, and I'm unconvinced by his read on serra, but on the whole I think he's likely to be Town and at the very least isn't somewhere we should be going with today's lynch

I wasn't interested in trying to make hay about a bunch of stuff that struck me as null, especially when there was more something interesting to go after.

FWIW, I'm also unconvinced by my read on serra.

[Mina]

UNVOTE: Quilford

Just kidding!

Busy all day, so will answer all the questions at me later.

[Patrick]

Interesting vote Mina. Did that in particular really trigger it?

[Patrick]

Fun.

[Mina]

(Yes, those posts from Quilford were what I was looking for, and we're not lynching him, but he's so eager to be townread I couldn't resist. )

[Quilford]

Expect revenge