433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[Off the Mark]

My list:

Town: Me, kilm

Leaning town: Dasq, Pie

Neutral: Gorckat, Superstring

Leaning scum: Nanook, Pete D

[Pie_is_good]

I'm not really feeling the Nanook or Dasq cases. OTM and Gorckat are my frontrunners.

OTM and Gorckat - could you both link me to a game where you were scum and a game where you were town?

[Off the Mark]

Pie - can you explain why you are suspicious of me? I will dig up those links for you... I've only completed 3 games. I was scum once, town once, and survivor once.

[Off the Mark]

Townie - http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... highlight=

Scum (my first game) - http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... highlight=

[gorckat]

Sure thing, pie. I got nothing to hide:

Scum (both Newbies):
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4713 (310)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4730 (309)

Town:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5525 (Open 25)
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=64706 (Newbie 11 @ MTGS)

Those are my completed games. Not sure if Open 25 is a good reflection of my play since I ended up self-voting in frustration Day 3 after cornering scum Day 1 when he claimed Scum/Jester. The one at MTGS went for a few days so is probably more accurate.

[gorckat]

EBWOP: I might have those Newbies numbered in reverse. I replaced into 310, FWIW.

[pete d]

My suspicions, in relative order from least suspicious to most:

kilmenator - Essentially confirmed as town due to lack of counterclaims and unlikelihood of 3 anti-town killing parties.

Dasquian - Hasn't really done anything that's stood out to me as suspicious. The most townish looking player from my perspective.

Nanookthewolf - Eletrair's post 15 was a bit strange, and Eletrair did lurk for a bit, but apparently had RL issues. Was "pretty sure" that MBL was scum, also put inhim at -1.

Pie_is_good - Pressed for a claim from MBL citing "much, much information" which could be gained. Kept vote on MBL up to deadline, despite expressing that he wasn't keen on the inhim wagon, and that he found Off the Mark suspicious.

superstring91 - Seemed somewhat opportunistic to me midway through day 1, kept a vote on MBL despite admitting it had no basis, promising to return to move it / add some comments, but didn't.

i understand your worries here, but i don't think scum would claim vanilla. they would claim a power role. discrediting the real power role, and playing the rest of the game in their position.

This post also struck me as strange.

gorckat - Seemed to go along with the crowd, wagon hopped a fair bit and lurked early on day 1, however gave better arguments for his votes later on day 1. Stood out to me that he said that he was suspicious of thorgot, then he was less so of OtM, then he was suspicious of OtM, and now he's got OtM on his town list.

off the mark - His early vote on Dasquain day 2 seemed rash. Some of his day 2 speculation doesn't make any sense. Seems to be pushing for a Nanook lynch. Weak arguments for his suspicions:

Of the vanilla claimers, I am also suspicious of Nanook and Pete D.

Mainly because I was suspicious of them on Day1

and they were late to join the "let's all massclaim" discussion. Not a strong argument, I know, but there it is.

Agreed 100%. But I don't think gorckat and Fonz are both scum. My suspicion list right now looks something like this:

inHim
MBL
gorckat (if gorck is scum, I think Fonz and Dasq are probably ok)
Pete D
Fonz
Dasquian (if Fonz is scum, I think it very likely Dasq is too)
IH (not sure what to think of him, I need to see more)
Nanook (been getting pro-town vibes from him lately, so he is almost off the list)

btw, in case you didn't notice my sig, I was away 6-11 July, and when I came back there was little to comment on at the time apart from claiming.

IN summary:

Suspicious: OtM
A bit suspicious: gorckat, superstring
Maybes: pie, Nanook
Leaning Town: Dasq
Assumed Town: kilmenator

[Off the Mark]

Pete -

I was more suspicious of Nanook earlier on Day1, but towards the end of Day1, I was less suspicious due to the pro-town feel I got from his arguments surrounding MBL. Now that MBL has turned up town, those arguments aren't looking so good anymore, so my suspicion from the early part of the day (which was mostly on Eletriar's play) is more important to me. Plus he lurked through the massclaim discussion for the most part, which launched him right to the top of my suspicion list. You seem to be defending him here, though, and attacking me, so I would not be surprised if both of you are scum.

[Off the Mark]

Also, since our Day2 discussion, I am feeling much better about gorckat.

[Dasquian]

Gut feelings:

Unsure: Nanook, pie, superstring, pete d
Leaning town: OTM, gorckat
Town: Me, Kilm

I didn't really feel like I could put anyone as "scummy" without disclaimers (though by definition the ones at the top are scummy to me, because

someone

has to be).

Nanook and pie I have on my list for pushing MBL. superstring and pete d are up there for flying under my radar more than they are for saying anything that caught my eye. gorckat I get pro-town vibes from, OTM has said a few things that jar but seems mostly pro-town to me (probably some OMGUS in there too). If I had to order the top three, I'd go:

#1 Nanook (I was suspicious of Eletriar early on too)
#2 superstring (It feels like we've gone longer stretches without his input than anyone else, and it feels like he hasn't committed too strongly to any discussion)
#3 pie (Again the MBL thing, though it felt slightly more town-motivated than Nanook)

pete d escapes the list because his posts just ring townish to me. The only reason he'd be a #4 is because I've got that jangling "radar blur" of not really remembering him for anything in particular that's so often the hallmark of scum - which is exactly why superstring is #2.

I need to do a proper reread on superstring and pete d in particular, but I'm pretty happy with that ordering.

[Off the Mark]

OK, the players I feel good about seem to be in agreement that Nanook is suspicious, so I am ready to cast a vote.

vote: Nanook

[NanookTheWolf]

I can't defend Eletriar's behavior for one ...

I stuck by my gut feeling on MBL, and I was wrong ... Very surprised at this fact.

I didn't figure that I lurked during the massclaim as it seemed to happen quite quickly, at least in my head anyways, and when I saw that I was to claim .. I did.

My top suspect right now falls on Gorckat, but as we've all seen I'm not too intuitive when it comes to catching scum ... Pete D and Superstring have done quite a bit of lurking in this game, so I could see a possible scum in between the two of them.

OTM doesn't catch my eye so much as being scum .. more leaning towards town.

I don't really have anything on Dasquin, I do know that he plays scum well, but that doesn't warrant anything in this game.

Kilm, the one shot vig who has proven herself .. Town

Pie hasn't lashed out or anything either, and the fact that he too supported the MBL lynch as I did doesn't make him scum in my book.

I really truly thought MBL/CES/Dodgy was scum, I didn't expect another doc to out themselves to prove this, but Pie had me thinking that he was the doc considering his "stubborness" to vote MBL/CES/Dodgy as well.

I think I was just quite off in this game, and really need to look at all the cards again as well.

I think that this could be LYOL and that whatever choice we make today needs to be scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Vote count:
Nanook 1 (off the mark)

[Off the Mark]

I really truly thought MBL/CES/Dodgy was scum, I didn't expect another doc to out themselves to prove this, but Pie had me thinking that he was the doc considering his "stubborness" to vote MBL/CES/Dodgy as well.

Now this is interesting. So, you claim you were thinking Pie could be a doc, therefore Dodgy/MBL was scum. If you were scum, it seems you would assume Dodgy was telling the truth about his claim and not look elsewhere for a doc, so this leads me to believe you are telling the truth.

Of course, you could be making the whole thing up, but that would be a pretty good ruse, if so. I think that is unlikely.

Curious to hear others' opinions on this.

[gorckat]

Nanook did seem pretty convinced MBL was scum in his posts. I'm not sure this statement clears him, though.

[Off the Mark]

It's also possible he was thinking "Dodgy was nuts, so he could be town or even SK. If he is not the doc, who is?"

Scum do have a pretty big incentive to identify power roles, after all, so it makes sense he would be puzzling that out, as scum.

[Off the Mark]

I'm not really feeling the Nanook or Dasq cases. OTM and Gorckat are my frontrunners.

OTM and Gorckat - could you both link me to a game where you were scum and a game where you were town?

Hey Pie, why didn't you just do a search? That's all I did to pull up my own games from the past. Was it really necessary to make a public request for background check material?

Seems like something scum might do to make it look like they are really working hard at scumhunting <--- I know that is a WIFOM argument, but the fact remains, he could have just done a search, he didn't need to make a public request.

[Pie_is_good]

Not really. You know what games you were scum in, and I don't really want to dig through the game to find out. But, if you're not responding, I guess I'll do that.

Also, FoS: OTM for having post 666.

[Off the Mark]

hey Pie - post 653

I responded.

LOL @ post 666

[Off the Mark]

Any other thoughts on my post 663, besides Gorckat? I am thinking Pete D might be a better lynch, but I am unsure.

[pete d]

If you were scum, it seems you would assume Dodgy was telling the truth about his claim and not look elsewhere for a doc, so this leads me to believe you are telling the truth.

If he was scum, I guess that would be likely, but I don't see how this means you believe him. I don't really follow your logic here.

Nanook's statement doesn't really change my opinion of him. It seems credible, however I do agree with gorckat's post 664.

[Off the Mark]

It's not a proof, it just seems like an unlikely argument for scum to use, that's all I'm saying. But that doesn't mean it's impossible. Far from it.

[Dasquian]

Any other thoughts on my post 663, besides Gorckat? I am thinking Pete D might be a better lynch, but I am unsure.

I think it's a good point - though as everyone agrees it doesn't clear him, I do agree that it's a weird direction for scum to be coming from but a more natural one for a townie to adopt.

I've been holding off a vote until I can properly reread the thread, but I'd rather pressure superstring over pete d if a reread makes me less happy about a Nanook or pie vote. In particular I want to properly chart how everyone individually reacted to Dodgy/CES/MBL, who almost certainly caused the most telling reactions.

[Off the Mark]

Alright here we go, PBPA of Superstring:

vote:southpaw
obviously trying to distract us.

oh, and
BEAT:bluehost

This is interesting - his first post is the first non-random vote. His suspicion seems a little silly to me, so this is slightly scummy IMO.

thanks everyone. my birthday's been great.

i would also like to point out that there are two votes on other people [ie: me] its nothing to be alarmed about. if it were a 7 player game, it would draw more attention, but in a 12 player game, it doesnt matter that much.

Points out that there are 2 votes on a couple players but that it's nothing to be concerned about. So why point it out? Trying to look helpful?

im not a huge fan of the wagon to 4
there are probably 3 scum, and if none have voted southpaw, would get a good quicklynch. i highly doubt that wagon will go anywhere, because giving up a scums position for the sake of an early lynch is flat out stupid

Here he is the first to talk about a quicklynch. He then again goes on to mention it is not a concern because they'd give themselves away. So again, why mention it? This is a major scumtell, from my experience. Players who try to get the town to worry about a quicklynch are often either scum or inexperienced.

i was still voting because as i said, i didnt think the wagon would go anywhere. and it hasnt. people have unvoted

if the use of FOS's gets too liberal, they lose effectiveness. a vote puts more pressure on them as well. if there are multiple FOS's on me i dont care as much as if they were votes. if there are multiple votes on me, i feel pressure to defend myself

i have to agree with fonz here. voting is better than FOS
addendum: a vote is not better than an FOS if the vote may end the game, or otherwise cause an early lynch

Not much to comment on here. Neutral post.

in this case, i'll say that i supported this particular wagon. it did no harm, got discussion rolling, and did some reaction fishing as well. overall, it was a good wagon

This is his first post that gives me a pro-town vibe.

on page 2 day 1, L-3 is not dangerous at all. especially if scum is already on the wagon, and even if no scum is on the wagon. they will not risk giving themselves up.

No comment - neutral (I'll abbreviate this as NCN from now on)

to start discussion so that we would be able to watch reactions, and actually have something to go on. if we never started a wagon, or voted at all for that matter, the game would stall.

you have no clue what hes played outside MS, our outside the internet for that matter. now, i dont think its a classic scumtell but it is something to look at later on down the road.

Defending the Fonz here, seems slightly protown, since he is arguing against Dodgy's somewhat nutty attacks.

im not defending him at all.
im calling you out on attacking him for provoking discussion. like i said in my last post, the game would stall otherwise.

also: the wiki had a list of scumtells at one point. he may have read it.

NCN

i have to agree. i dont think pointing out scumtells is a great idea right now keep those ideas to yourself, and maybe analyze them later.

Now THIS is interesting - he wants Fonz to keep scumtells to himself? VERY anti-town.

the only reason you think the 3 of us are scum is because we agree with each other and not you.
i dont like that one bit

Valid point, but seems more like a defense scum would use to me.

i also dont like you trying to attack fonz for lack of experience. even though you said that you werent trying to discredit him, it came off like you were.

NCN

at least he is not saying "i have nothing to add" that was a major problem with N316. there was one player who refused to agree with anyone, and just said that his ideas had been posted already. we cant read peoples minds [as much as we may try] while i agree that more content is better, their ideas may have been legitimatly posted already.

i, for one would rather have him say that than "my ideas were posted" and "not posting is my play style. eat it."

and, to end this post, i would like to hear from everyone else as well.
POST!

Here he's calling out lurkers, when he hasn't exactly been the most active player in the game himself. Not sure if this is scummy or not.

i agree 100% with this.

and most of the time, i dont buy too sscummy to be scum, but it would really depend on that players actions so far, and how they acted after the scummy actions

Here he's agreeing with kilm who has said "lynch scummy players, even if they seem too scummy to be scum". This could be seen as subtly going after Dodgy, which is interesting because of what comes later.

i have to agree wit this [especially "wow, what the heck"] and just because people are new to the site doesnt mean they cant read into it.

the way this game has gone, we have gotten a bit off track, i think.
arguing about menial things.

the most important thing right now is to hear from inactives.
then more discussio can ensue

@eletriar: youve said your ideas were posted. lots of ideas were posted. some very opposite, and extreme. which ideas do you agree with?

This post looks pretty much neutral. More calling out of lurkers.

i just have one last comment on dodgy's quit:
it was extremely immature, and i think he was being whiny, and condescending. i dont like the attitude of "i've been here longer, so i [and only i] know how to play it right."
so, i think the best thing to do with his role is to see how his replacement acts.

i think it's time to put the pressure on the inactives

vote: gorckat

Hmmm I guess this is neutral, as I know I have done it myself as town.

i agree that the wiki shouldn't be a player's bible, but rather a utility for reference.

but you shouldnt judge someone based on their time on the site. i dont believe that really says much about their skill. nor does mere experience. someone could have played in more games than anyone else, and still not be as good as the newest player.

and you should expect attacks. how else are we going to weed scum out?
expect them to declare that they are scum?

This is a reply to a deleted post of Dodgy's. Seems pretty pro-town.

this is the oddest game ive ever played in.

ok, i think what we have to do now is move past the dodgy incident. lets get back to the game. weed out scum.

my vote is already out there on gorkcat. lets pressure the inactives.

Seems pro-town on the surface. But didn't he want to go after scummy looking players (like Dodgy, I assume) before? This seems like either a change of heart, or a lie/half-truth is mixed in here somewhere. Nothing concrete though.

I don't understand superstring's post 123. (page 5) I'm not sure who said what, since he messed up some quote tags, and I am not sure what the purpose of the post was either, since it seems to go back to something that happened on the last page. Superstring, could you explain what this says and why you posted it?

thats ok, at least we know [somewhat] where you stand.
we still need gorkcat, though.
if i could put another vote on him, i would

OK now he really wants to pressure gorckat for lurking. This seems a little scummy to me. When a lurker doesn't respond after a while, that usually means he's not reading the thread. A scum won't see himself being prodded by a vote and then continue to lurk. But superstring seems to be interpreting gorckat's lurking that way, which I see as accusing with weak reasoning.

i realize that it doesn't mean much if he's not here, but if he has been reading, and not posting, then it does.

and yes, i am trying to get something going on gorkcat. im trying to get pressure on him. it was either him or thorgot. and i'll probably go for thorgot next.

all i'm trying to do with my votes right now is pressure. im not trying to get anyone lynched [yet]

Pete D calls out superstring for pushing gorckat too hard, this is string's response. This reads pretty neutral to me.

not necesarilly. hammering draws attention, but in the end it is a good thing

NCN

i agree with dasq that LAL is a good rule of thumb, but thats just it. its a rule of thumb it doesnt apply in every case. and [assuming dodgy/CES is lying] i dont know that it does here.

right now fonz is topping my scumlist.
it seems like he is being very opportunistic. someone replaces into a game where his predecessor made a claim in a hissy fit. he retracts the claim. fonz accuses him of lying, and pushes for LAL.

thorgot is next.
hes not giving many opinions.

id like to hear more from eletrair and kilm before i comment about them.
the same goes for CES

This post is setting off alarm bells for me. He was agreeing with Fonz throughout the whole Dodgy situation and even defending him. Now he says Fonz tops his scumlist because he goes after Dodgy's replacement... I don't know if this is a good enough reason to make him string's #1 suspect after he seemed to be in a position of trust before. He says thorgot is #2, who I now know to be town, but it's true, thorgot didn't share his own opinions much.

fonz, i really dont think you should be pushing on CES so hard right now.
we've driven the discussion about him into the ground.
dodgy was an ass.
we should not lynch CES just because of what dodgy has done. we need to see how he acts.
that being said, i will stick by my scumlist and
vote:fonz

I don't like this one bit. Fonz explained that he was operating under lynch all liars, and with the way he's interpreting CES's role retraction, this makes absolute sense. Superstring ignores Fonz's argument and votes for him.

I'm feeling a bit suspicious of superstring and fonzy. I know i said i bought Fonz as town before, but his recent behaviour has made me a bit more apprehensive of him. superstring seems overaggressive to me, its more of a gut feeling on my part, he seems a bit opportunistic to me. Eletrair and dom:inc both seem to be fence-sitting a bit (dom:inc hasn't commented for a while though).

i get the whole gut feeling thing, but do you have any reasoning why im suspicious?

i will be out of town tomorrow through sunday. i am caught up, and will catch up when i return.

This is a bit hard to figure out, since we have two players arguing and we don't know their alignments. It seems like Pete gave decent reasons for suspecting superstring (mentions opportunistic and overaggression) and superstring acts like all Pete said was "gut feeling".

However, this is the sort of vague arguments I expect scum to use when throwing around distancing type FOS's, so I think Pete D and superstring could easily be playing a little game here. Nothing solid, though, just a feeling.

EBWOP
the question i was trying to ask was:
how am i opportunistic?

Interesting that superstring re-read the interaction and clarified his question. Could be he was analyzing the back-and-forth between two scums and making sure it looked legit.

please note that this post is me thinking out loud

i don't think we should lynch CES today

lets look at possibilites
1. he actually is a doc. [oh shit, we just lost a doc]
2. he is a townie [meh, we lynched a townie]
3. he is mafia [woohoo.]

i half would like to hear him claim.
lets look at his possible claims, and outcomes of said claim.
1. doc/not lynched
2. vanilla/lynched

the only way for him to live is if he claims doc. what if he is actually vanilla? we lost a townie, and we will lose more in the night, putting us in an unpleasant situation.

if he claims vanilla i am inclined to believe him. solely because of dodgy's actions.
that said, fonz said that we should hold him accountable for dodgy's actions.
i have a slightly different view on this:
we should analyze the difference between their posts.
like if someone replaces someone scummy and then is himself more town-like, i would suspect him as scum more than i would as town.

i would rather lynch someone scummy than lynch someone based on LAL, especially in this case, where we don't know a lot about him.

we should let him claim, and then watch his posts.

This post gave me town vibes initially, but look at what it accomplishes: It puts superstring on the "don't lynch Dodgy/CES" side of the debate, which looks good when Dodgy/CES comes up town. It also encourages CES to claim at the same time. Perhaps superstring is not sure if Dodgy is actually the doc here, or just a crazy townie? I don't know, I'm not quite sure what to make of this one.

if he claims, the only way for him to live is if he claims doc.. because if he claims townie [even if he really is a townie] he'll be lynched on the basis of LAL.

i realize that we can afford a mislynch right now, but i would much rather lynch scum.

i dont mind a claim from CES, but lets wait for a bit. at least until we hear from thorgot.

The "i would much rather lynch scum" part of this post sets off alarm bells for me. Why in the world would he mention that? Seems like a scum going out of his way to appear innocent.

FOS:CES
hes replaced into a game and hasnt really done much.
id like to hear more of your opinions, CES.
also, note that the fos will turn into a vote if necessary.

superstring changes his mind again. I guess he doesn't like lurkers.

i'll be gone for the weekend.
i'll get caught up upon my return

NCN

kilm is at the top of my list right now.
along with ces

kilm is echoing fonz, and not giving a whole lot of content.

ces just isn't giving content

id like to see pressure on them, and the one with the most votes presently is kilm

so,
vote:kilmenator

I actually agreed with him here, on my read-through, and was also suspicious of kilm for it. In hindsight, it doesn't look as good. Seems like superstring has mostly gone after players who we have confirmed as townies (or nearly confirmed, in kilm's case)

--- now Superstring drops off the radar for 4 pages ---

i don't have a ton to add right now.

im gonna vote for CES though.
[*]he replaced for dodgy[who was scummy beyond belief]
[*]he barely posted at all
[*]his last post was may 30 which was a new vote. only a new vote


i know i have been posting intermitantly, which is not normal for me, and i hate to leave games hanging.

i will be going on vacation on wednesday for 9 days. i will have essentially no internet[and thus, no mafia for that time] i will make sure i leave with all my suspicions aired, and a satisfactory vote.

He doesn't like that CES has been lurking for a while now. This is understandable, but a few pages back he said he did not want to lynch Dodgy/CES, so I think he needs to explain this change of heart a little better.

oops, i forgot to vote
vote:CES

NCN

--- superstring goes on vacation for a while, when he comes back we are dealing with MBL, who has replaced Dodgy/CES ----

alright, i'm back. my vacation was a little longer than i expected. i can effectively do a full post tonight, but will tomorrow evening.

i will respond to this though;

1) Superstring thinks Dodgy was scummy beyond belief, which is not accurate in my opinion. Superstring tacks on lurking reasons, which is an ok reason to vote, except that it no longer applies because I'm not lurking and because CES just abandoned a newbie game he's modding and therefore I don't think the lurking can be concluded to bear on his alignment in the least.

first, of course it's not accurate in your opinion: YOU"RE BLOODY REPLACING HIM!

secondly, before i left, you were not here. but you are now, so i won't use lurking as a reason to vote you

i am going to leave my vote on until tomorrow, when i have thoroughly reviewed what i have missed

I'm noticing that superstring seems to use lurking as his primary reason for FOS and voting people. This seems to be an easy crutch to fall back on for scum. It allows them to do little true analysis of posting if they can just keep simply saying, "This guy is lurking, let's pressure him." I am getting more confident that superstring is scum. I've certainly never seen pro-town players this stuck on lurking before.

Then superstring doesn't comment again until Day 1 is over. His vote stays on MBL. This could be seen by scum as a "safe" place to have a vote, since Dodgy did look so scummy earlier.

I don't see a whole lot of pro-town actions in there, and only a handful of posts which gave me a pro-town vibe. I see a LOT of suspicious motivations. I would totally support a superstring lynch for today.

Comments?

unvote:

[Pie_is_good]

OTM, you didn't really sell me on Superstring's guilt. You have a few legitimate points in there, namely:

I'm noticing that superstring seems to use lurking as his primary reason for FOS and voting people. This seems to be an easy crutch to fall back on for scum. It allows them to do little true analysis of posting if they can just keep simply saying, "This guy is lurking, let's pressure him." I am getting more confident that superstring is scum. I've certainly never seen pro-town players this stuck on lurking before.

...I agree wholeheartedly with this. However, the rest of your case against him seemed a bit circumstantial - your argument seemed to give him credit for having a big, scheming plan that was trying to get into our heads with his posting. I seriously doubt that, if he's scum, he was trying to do anything more than pass his own reasons off as legitimate so that he could escape our suspicion.

All that said, you pretty much sold me on your (OTM) own innocence. As scum, I'd think you would have disincluded all the "NCN" posts and the protown vibe posts - you could have easily done so and been significantly more presuasive. Plus, I've breifly reviewed the games you linked me, and they point in your favor. As scum, you posted pretty consistantly medium-length posts. As town, you posted short, 1-or-2 sentence posts until something piqued your interest, at which point you started posting longer. This game is more consistant with the Townie posting pattern.

Anyways, I'll review Gorckat shortly.