Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[Guardian]

Official Vote Count #11

LoudmouthLee[1](Glork)
Vendagoat[1](mneme)
mneme[1](MrBuddyLee)
AutumnEvenings[1](Vendagoat)

Not Voting[6] (AutumnEvenings, CrashTextDummie, Crub, LoudmouthLee, Mert, Stewie)

[Mert]

Interesting.

Firstly, at the top end of yesterday I really didn't see anything in the Goatwagon. In fact, I made a mental note to come back to it - I'm always naturally suspicious of people that try and form a counter-wagon just before deadline, especially if the original lynchee turns out to be scum. However, reading AE's posts from the early part of today, I can certainly see the potential behind a connection between Goat and Xyz.

What intrigues me about this is the fact that AE seemed to post yesterday against Goat almost with a knowledge of how things would look today, thus validating her statements from yesterday. I'm not entirely sure what to think of it. In a normal 3-Mafia Mini game, I'd probably be thinking {AE, Xyz, Goat} as the scum group about now, but that clearly cannot be the case in this game and if AE and Goat are the Ice Mafia then her actions from yesterday make no sense if Xyzzy is not part of the puzzle. Something about this doesn't quite add up, but I'm going to revisit it when we have more information (Goat's alignment would help immensely, of course, but I'll think more on this issue in lieu of that).

Next thing is that while I have a slight suspicion in Glork's still being alive, I do not put anywhere near the amount of stock into it being a scumtell as some in this game do. For a start, the lack of cross-kills and no-kill when the two scum groups target the same player lead to far more Prisoner's Dilemma-type shenanigans than there would normally be in a two-scumgroup game. As has been pointed out already, there is as much possibility that both groups avoided attempting to kill him for fear of the other doing so. With the lack of a counter-claim and the pool of potential candidates to do so diminishing rapidly, I see no reason why Glork should be the play for today unless something spectacular happens. If Glork truly is the Doctor then it goes without saying that he could turn the tide for the town, especially in endgame. I don't see why people are speculating on lynching him today, when we have no solid reason to doubt his claim and a number of setup-related reasons that could explain his being alive more than would be the case in a more standard game.

[Glork]

So Mert. All this talk about how you'd feel if this were a normal setup is grand and whatnot, and your musings on why I'm not the play are certainly appreciated.....



....but given that this is Fire and Ice Mafia, and I am not going to be lynched in this game, I'd like to know who you think is scum right now? Who is the last Fire? Who are the Ices?

Minor FoS: Mert

for making a lengthy post that amounted to virtually no useful, original insight as to who we should be lynching today.

[Mert]

Well the latter part of my second paragraph was basically saying that I'm finding it quite hard to neatly categorise people in the way you request without WIFOMing myself to death, but I'll give it a go.

I think Vendagoat is a strong candidate for the other Fire, due to his interaction with Xyzzy in the latter half of yesterday. However, if we were to lynch him and he turned up Ice for some reason, I believe that would pretty much preclude AE from being the other Ice.

I put some stock in the idea that Fire may have missed their kill last night, however, meaning they could have found the other Fire. This has been discussed already and, if you do not believe you protected successfully last night (not asking your opinion on this at the moment, btw) then looking at the votes/FoSes from the early part of today then one of the following is a strong possibility for Fire voting for their missed kill:

LmL

and

Glork

-

unlikely

AE

and

CTD

-

possible

AE

and

Goat

-

possibly both scum, but factions more likely to be reversed

Crub

and

AE

-

quite possible

Goat

and

AE

-

quite possible

Goat

and

Glork

-

unlikely

mneme

and

LmL

-

possible, but unlikely

mneme

and

Goat

-

unlikely

AE comes up on the list as Ice more than I'd like, but they can't all be scum on the Fire side, so I'm not sure if the frequency tells us anything particularly. Howver, if one of the people paired with AE above turns up Fire then I think AE wouldn't be an unreasonable play the following day.

Of course, if you protected correctly then this could all be moot.

Of the people that have seemed most suspicious of you and your claim so far, I think LmL is the most likely scum. Something about MBL strikes me as protown, though it is as much gut as anything.

Sorry for that being a bit stream-of-consciousnessy, but that's basically my thoughts on the game... as you can see from the fact it's a bit jumbled, I'm having trouble trying to work out what's going on.

I hate to say it, but it'd be easier to work out if there wasn't a doctor in this game in some ways, as we could basically bring it down to no-kill or attempted cross-kill. The doctor's presence adds yet another variable, which is part of what's confusing me. Now as I say, I'm not asking for you to divulge

anything

about your action last night and what you believe the outcome to have been, but I hope that this information you have will be able to feed into this game in the coming days. This is another reason why I do not believe you should be the play for the forseeable future.

[Glork]

AE comes up on the list as Ice more than I'd like

Why wouldn't you like AE on the list as Ice?

[Crub]

Wow this game added 2 pages overnight for me. Here's my random thoughts :

I honestly don't see a huge case against the goat.
AE has pointed my nose in CTD's direction, his voting pattern on Day 1 was scummy.
Glork to me is probably 90% doctor 5% townie and 5% ice.
There are a number of reasons why Glork wouldn't have been killed last night, and I don't think we can take too much from it.
LML's insistence on keeping a finger on Glork is understandable yet suspicious in his veracity.

If I had to pick a person to be xyzzy's partner right now I'd have to go with CTD, based solely on voting pattern. However considering CTD didn't post for the last 2 or 3 days of the deadline I'm not sure if AE's reasoning stands up.

CTD are you out there?

One last thing :

Glork protected me last night, by the way, duh. I was mercilessly run up to lynchable, and in a nonsensical manner, and Glork theorized that's likely to mean scum from both teams were on me. If I was fire scum who lynched my partner the way xyzzy went down, I should be shot for sedition. Fire scum was likely to target me as possible Ice for nailing their partner, but it was a terrible choice considering I was a likely doc protect. Ice is obviously craftier scum, going after a player who was unlikely to be protected. Ice is going to let town do the dirty work for them and hope to outlast us.

The good news is, there are lots of good scumhunters on the job, and I predict this game will end well.

Awesome Post, Voting 5!

[Mert]

Why wouldn't you like AE on the list as Ice?

Because they can't

all

be Fire, meaning some of them are red herrings, adding an additional layer of complexity in trying to unravel it all. It's little more than a turn of phrase, to be honest Glork.

[CrashTextDummie]

If I had to pick a person to be xyzzy's partner right now I'd have to go with CTD, based solely on voting pattern.

What's wrong with my voting pattern? I voted him during the random voting phase, and unvoted him when the random voting phase was over. I didn't see the case against him, and to be quite honest, I don't see it even now that he was revealed as scum. As far as I'm concerned, lynching him was a rather lucky shot in the dark.

I seriously doubt the second Fire mafiate was on the xyzzy lynch. Throwing your partner under the bus is strongly discouraged by the set-up, and considering the general weakness of the wagon there really wasn't any compelling reason to bus either.

Incidentally, that list includes MBL and Glork, both of whom were the candidates for counterwagons, which is where I suspect the second Fire dude was sitting. The one who's sticking out like a sore thumb to me is

Vendagoat

, who had been FoSing xyzzy almost all day long while keeping his vote elsewhere. Specifically, he was on both Glork and MBL. If anyone was actively trying to derail the xyzzy-wagon, it was him.

Crub

was also part of both the Glork and MBL wagon, but he was actually the wagon starter in both cases, which makes it less likely in my view that he was being opportunistic Fire scum.

And then of course there's

LoudMouthLee

(who also was on both Glork and MBL), who's playing the game much like what I'm used to seeing of him recently. It seems to me like his pro-town approach to games is of the take-no-prisoners, guns-blazing variety, and in the last game of his I've read (MaD), he was furiously and memorably wrong. He was the only one of those 3 who openly opposed the xyzzy lynch, and while I

do

believe him capable of playing such a cheeky game, I don't really have a problem seeing him simply being wrong here as well.

To summarize, I believe the most likely Fire mafiate is:
1. Vendagoat
2. Crub
3. LML

In that order.

As for the Ice mafia:
I've said earlier that AutumnEvenings is giving me weird vibes, and she's the most feasible candidate on the xyzzy wagon, in my opinion. But I'm not convinced the Ice mafia was on the xyzzy wagon at all. Stewie has been fairly unremarkable so far, which is reminiscent of a recent scum performance of his (Totally Awesome Mafia). Crub, Vendagoat and LML are candidates again.

I'll do another reread (particularly of D2, which didn't play a big part in this analysis) to further hunt the Ice mafia, but until then, we might as well rid ourselves of Fire.

Vote: Vendagoat

NOTE: I will be leaving for 2 weeks on Saturday, and I probably won't have internet access during that time. Considering the stringent deadlines in this game, I don't think there's any choice but to replace me (and I believe the mod is already hunting for one). I'll continue playing until Saturday though, and I intend to make it worth your while.

[Vendagoat]

who had been FoSing xyzzy almost all day long while keeping his vote elsewhere. Specifically, he was on both Glork and MBL. If anyone was actively trying to derail the xyzzy-wagon, it was him.

Actively trying to derail? Are you high?

I was on the glork wagon until the claim, then I had a toss up and whoops I picked wrong. Others lucked into it and picked correctly. Good for them.

Nice way of misrepresenting the truth.

[CrashTextDummie]

Vendagoat:

Would you agree that xyzzy's partner had a increased interest in not seeing xyzzy hang due to the set-up quirks, and was therefore more likely to actively seek another lynch?

If your answer is yes, who do you think fits the bill most?

[Vendagoat]

Vendagoat:

Would you agree that xyzzy's partner had a increased interest in not seeing xyzzy hang due to the set-up quirks, and was therefore more likely to actively seek another lynch?

If your answer is yes, who do you think fits the bill most?

Ok yes I agree with you his partner would more than likely not be on the vote, but please don't forget the couple of people that wanted to switch at the last minute. Who knows, maybe they wanted to attempt another lynch at the zero hour or something. Those three are Glork, Ae and lml.
Now as for not on the XYZ lynch we have; You, me, crub, stewie, lml and mneme.

I'll make a list.

Me: I'm still new and I always like to keep an open mind about everything, especially on day one. Because its a lot of random voting and either the town miss lynches or a scum screws up royally. I was waiting for either of those to happen. Xyz did screw up but in my eyes MBL also screwed up just as bad. I don't think I fit the bill enough because I had noticed the same thing crub, glork and lml noticed about mbl. I choose and I stuck to my guns. I choose poorly, my bad. If you're going to crucify me for not being on the correct person then you better do it to the rest as well. Oh and finally, as I repeated ad nasuem, the cases on me right now are feelings. Thanks for suspecting me for not doing anything scummy, just because some of you want to.

You: I'll keep this one brief. If we are just going on who didn't say anything about XYZ, it was you. You never so much as mentioned him EXCEPT for your first random vote. You let him coast right by.

Crub: ok this right here is one of my front runners. First he's ont he XYZ wagon, then to glork and when the heat really gets on XYZ goes right for MBL, but pledges he will kill XYZ if a no-lynch is coming. While throwing your partner under the bus is bad, if you can get a chance to garner respect with others to survive the next day, why not take it?

Stewie: doesn't strike me as XYZ's partner. Still a bit leary about the whole reminder thing. It just strikes me as strange.

LML: Ok this one is interesting and is my second best pick. check this out

The Xyzzy wagon at least had *something* to it. I didn't agree... but it had *something*.

if the XYZ wagon had "something" why didn't he vote it? Then there is the whole glork thing. I think we can all agree lynching a claimed un countered doc is just plain stupid, but he liked a glork lynch better? Did he not want to waste the night kill? Then the switch to me, just because.
This whole thing here just rubs me the wrong way.

and finally
mneme: who did the exact same thing as lml.

Oh, given Glork's claim, I'd prefer to lynch crub over xyzzy, but will switch to xyz if it's needed for a deadline lynch, since xyz lynch is better than either doc or no-lynch.

I mean take your pick.

Ok dude, that's my full thoughts, if you want me to explain anything more, or need clarification, please let me know.

[Stewie]

Why wouldn't you like AE on the list as Ice?

Because they can't

all

be Fire, meaning some of them are red herrings, adding an additional layer of complexity in trying to unravel it all. It's little more than a turn of phrase, to be honest Glork.

How do you turn a phrase?

As far as I'm concerned, lynching him was a rather lucky shot in the dark.

Incidentally, that list includes MBL and Glork, both of whom were the candidates for counterwagons, which is where I suspect the second Fire dude was sitting. The one who's sticking out like a sore thumb to me is

Vendagoat

, who had been FoSing xyzzy almost all day long while keeping his vote elsewhere. Specifically, he was on both Glork and MBL. If anyone was actively trying to derail the xyzzy-wagon, it was him.

It strikes me as suspicious that you admit that the xyzzy lynch was a lucky shot in the dark, and then you try to incriminate someone for shooting elsewhere. Your point about Vendagoat FOSing xyzzy but not voting, however, is valid, since it implies that Vendagoat did not think that xyzzy was a shot in the dark.

MBL seems to be stretching a lot and making lots of assumptions (such as the doctor protecting him, that Glork is the doctor, etc). Anyone who's played with him before: is this his usual playstyle?

[Glork]

It strikes me as suspicious that you admit that the xyzzy lynch was a lucky shot in the dark, and then you try to incriminate someone for shooting elsewhere. Your point about Vendagoat FOSing xyzzy but not voting, however, is valid, since it implies that Vendagoat did not think that xyzzy was a shot in the dark.

I think you're missing the point. If there was really such a little case on Xyzzy, then the people who lynched him more or less got lucky (according to CTD). However, Xyzzy's partner would have known that Xyzzy was scum, and they would very likely have been actively pushing elsewhere, whether they were distancing from Xyzzy (with an FoS) or not.



Also, Stewie and CTD: It would be helpful if you could both claim "not-doc" so that we can finally put a rest to all of this nonsense with LmL taking every other post to call me suspicous. Thanks.

[AutumnEvenings]

All right. First, so that Vendagoat stops saying the entire case on him is based on "feeling", allow me to articulate why his Day One play made him look like partners with XYZ.

Here's a chronology:
1) Crub random-votes XYZ (#11)
2) I random-vote XYZ (#18)
3) Mert "bandwagon" votes XYZ (#19)
4) Vendagoat says "wow, lots ot hate for XYZ" (#23)
5) XYZ (joke?) FoS's Vendagoat (#24)

That was the initial thing. It felt like Vendagoat was trying to derail the bandwagon in a subtle way (his post is a joke, check it out), and XYZ responded to that by FoSing him because goats are bad, which looks like a partner saying "don't be stupid".

Vendagoat then makes lots of "oh, he might be scum, might not be" non-commital comments (often accompanied by FoS's) regarding XYZ (e.g. #42, #62, #73, #165).

And then it comes down to deadline, and it looks like it's between XYZ and MBL. Venadagoat votes MBL. Now, I don't know about you guys, but when I FoS someone three times, and someone else zero times, I'd probably vote for the person I'd found suspicious, not the one with "the condescending attitude". But then again, I'm not Vendagoat and I'm not XYZ's scum-buddy.
---------------
So that points to partnership yesterday. In addition, Vendagoat has acted scumy indepedently of XYZ. He's been wishy-washy, extremely OMGUS-y, hasn't made actual attempts at scumhunting, prefering to follow the crowd or else OMGUS, doesn't respond to (what I happen to think are) valid responses to his posts (see, e.g. my post 221), distorts posts and arguments, accused me of claiming something when I was doing no such thing (and of course didn't respond when I pointed that out), and is now trying to play the newbie card despite having more than 3 months' experience at mafiascum.

vote: Vendagoat

-----------------
Now, about the other stuff.

Mert, what exactly were you trying to imply with your post 251, particularly

What intrigues me about this is the fact that AE seemed to post yesterday against Goat almost with a knowledge of how things would look today, thus validating her statements from yesterday.

All I did was look at the game thread and see what looked like partner interactions. I never predicted that Venda would go all illogical and OMGUS-y, just that if XYZ was scum, Venda seemed a likely partner. I really don't understand why you'd even bother saying something like this, given the game set-up, which 100% preculdes anyone from knowing more than one scum. If you have something bad to say about me, base it in reality.

Also, according to your next post, if Vendagoat turns up Fire, that makes me a good candidate for being Ice. Why is that? Because I suspect him and he's OMGUSing me? I get that you're piggybacking LmL's idea that I was the target and didn't die and thus am mafia, but...do you

see

how many assumptions that is based on, and how many facts it ignores?

And Stewie, I thought that post by MBL was a joke.

But, for the record, I

do

think Glork is the doctor. He hasn't been counterclaimed. There's no cop in this game. The best the doc can hope for is to sucessfully block a kill (which he may have already done) on a townie. That's nothing to scoff, but if scum is falsely claiming your role, by countering, you'd give us scum. Trading the doc for a scum is a very good deal, in my opinion, especially in a game like this where the doc can't give us CIs (since he doesn't know if he's the one who prevented the kill anyway). I don't like the people who are still suspecting Glork.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm not the doc.

[Mert]

Mert, what exactly were you trying to imply with your post 251, particularly

What intrigues me about this is the fact that AE seemed to post yesterday against Goat almost with a knowledge of how things would look today, thus validating her statements from yesterday.

All I did was look at the game thread and see what looked like partner interactions. I never predicted that Venda would go all illogical and OMGUS-y, just that if XYZ was scum, Venda seemed a likely partner. I really don't understand why you'd even bother saying something like this, given the game set-up, which 100% preculdes anyone from knowing more than one scum. If you have something bad to say about me, base it in reality.

I am not saying you were bussing him (which, as you rightly point out, would require three scum in a group) but what I was getting at is that you seemed to know he wasn't the same alignment as you. Your case against him yesterday toward deadline was fairly weak (note: I actually think the arguments you've presented today are strong, but not those of yesterday) and, reading between the lines slightly, I at least saw the possibility that, given Xyzzy was likely to be the lynch that you dedicated your effort into subtly setting up someone for Day Two. While everyone was busy squabbling over Glork's claim and whether Xyzzy was town, there you were in the background putting pressure on Goat to do or say something you could use today.

Also, according to your next post, if Vendagoat turns up Fire, that makes me a good candidate for being Ice. Why is that? Because I suspect him and he's OMGUSing me? I get that you're piggybacking LmL's idea that I was the target and didn't die and thus am mafia, but...do you

see

how many assumptions that is based on, and how many facts it ignores?

Looking at Goat's OMGUS-y nature (which you yourself have pointed out), I think it's entirely possible that, if Fire, he would have targetted you last night. You were clearly on his case at the end of the day, his scumbuddy was dead and he needed to remove the threat to him. So if he

does

turn out to be Fire, I would give fairly good odds to you being either Ice or Glork's target. No, it's not conclusive but it should also not be dismissed as simply "piggybacking LmL's idea".

I think Goat is the play for today. I think eliminating the assumption that he is Fire will be a good first step toward either validating or disproving my theory.

So yes, it is based on assumptions - everything in Mafia is to an extent. I don't see what facts it ignores at all, however - could you list them for me?

[Mert]

Also, while I'd hope it was clear by now, for the avoidance of doubt I will state that I am not the Doc.

[Vendagoat]

All right. First, so that Vendagoat stops saying the entire case on him is based on "feeling", allow me to articulate why his Day One play made him look like partners with XYZ.

Here's a chronology:
1) Crub random-votes XYZ (#11)
2) I random-vote XYZ (#18)
3) Mert "bandwagon" votes XYZ (#19)
4) Vendagoat says "wow, lots ot hate for XYZ" (#23)
5) XYZ (joke?) FoS's Vendagoat (#24)

That was the initial thing. It felt like Vendagoat was trying to derail the bandwagon in a subtle way (his post is a joke, check it out), and XYZ responded to that by FoSing him because goats are bad, which looks like a partner saying "don't be stupid".

So jokes are scumtells now?

Vendagoat then makes lots of "oh, he might be scum, might not be" non-commital comments (often accompanied by FoS's) regarding XYZ (e.g. #42, #62, #73, #165).

And then it comes down to deadline, and it looks like it's between XYZ and MBL. Venadagoat votes MBL. Now, I don't know about you guys, but when I FoS someone three times, and someone else zero times, I'd probably vote for the person I'd found suspicious, not the one with "the condescending attitude". But then again, I'm not Vendagoat and I'm not XYZ's scum-buddy.

You've been riding me from day one and since you got lucky on day one you are attempting to railroad me for day two. Fine.

---------------
So that points to partnership yesterday. In addition, Vendagoat has acted scumy indepedently of XYZ. He's been wishy-washy, extremely OMGUS-y, hasn't made actual attempts at scumhunting, prefering to follow the crowd or else OMGUS, doesn't respond to (what I happen to think are) valid responses to his posts (see, e.g. my post 221), distorts posts and arguments, accused me of claiming something when I was doing no such thing (and of course didn't respond when I pointed that out), and is now trying to play the newbie card despite having more than 3 months' experience at mafiascum.

vote: Vendagoat

Let it be known that I have played

2

whole games. One being lynched on day one and the other resulted in a town win.


And post 31 is were you accuse me of being XYZ's scum buddy. Wow, either you have some form of esp, or you were just setting up a kill for today.

Look I've started a case on you because you used the term "feeling" and now after seeing how you have justified it, you have given away you had some form of knowledge. You knew XyZ was scum and now you know I am scum.

How can you make such allegations unless you have knowledge of the scum pairings. Which means, your scum. Now the question lies, are you ice or fire?

[CrashTextDummie]

You knew XyZ was scum and now you know I am scum.

Did you just claim Ice mafia?

[Crub]

Look I've started a case on you because you used the term "feeling" and now after seeing how you have justified it, you have given away you had some form of knowledge. You knew XyZ was scum and now you know I am scum.

How can you make such allegations unless you have knowledge of the scum pairings. Which means, your scum. Now the question lies, are you ice or fire?

You realise that you have to be scum for this make sense right?

[Crub]

err what CTD said

[Mert]

Vote: Vendagoatse

[Vendagoat]

Oh and just for fun, Not doc.

[Vendagoat]

[quote=AE]I'm not Vendagoat and I'm not XYZ's scum-buddy[/quote]

Spoken from her mouth repeated by me.

[Mert]

Oh and just for fun, Not doc.

Of

course

you're not the doc because your win condition involves killing all the protown players