433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[superstring91]

For the record, guessing at what the scum will claim is probably the purest form of WIFOM.

well, of course.

im just guessing what scum would claim from my experience as scum.
of course, there are occasions where it is more beneficial to claim vanilla.
claiming a power role usually works best when there is a lot of confusion in the town, or when roles are not revealed upon death.

i suppose that in this scenario here and now, claiming vanilla would be most beneficial.

but then you play the game of guessing what, and how many, roles the mod put in.

if you can effectively guess how many vanilla players there are, you can just do a count, and know that X number of people are vanilla, and X+1 claimed vanilla. hmm. someone's lying. which one is the scummiest?

but then scum would just suggest alternate setups that benefit them


damn you wifom

[kilmenator]

well, we are waiting on pete d for now, then gorkat, pie, and dasq.

I think we need to hold out on who we think we are suspicious of until, we have all claims.

[pete d]

vanilla townie

[kilmenator]

Ok, those who have claimed thus far, can you please give us an idea of what was in your role PM? You are not allowed to quote it, however you can summarize and give us an idea of what it said.

Thus far we have
Kilm- one shot vig
Nanook - vanilla townie
Off the Mark- vanilla townie
superstring - vanilla townie
pete d- vanilla townie

When we are all finished claiming I will give some input on what I think the set up will be/is.

[NanookTheWolf]

As already stated by the mod in his 2nd post ...

The Vanilla PM looks like this:

You are vanilla. This is where flavor would go, but there is no flavor in this game, so there is nothing here. As many times as you want, during the day, you may vote for who you think is scum. You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

The townie win condition is this:

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

[gorckat]

Vanilla. Get to vote as often as I want.

[gorckat]

Pie and Dasq, now...

[Pie_is_good]

Sorry.

Vanilla.

[kilmenator]

Let me guess dasq, vanilla.

[Dasquian]

Vanilla townie here too.

Being the last to go, I was expecting to get to do the first comment on the claimed line up, which is:

Kilm- one shot vig
Nanook - vanilla townie
Off the Mark- vanilla townie
superstring - vanilla townie
pete d- vanilla townie
pie - vanilla townie
Dasq - vanilla townie

I was expecting more twists and turns and a possible counter-claim, but apparently not First off, with kilm having claimed to have killed MBL, and no one disputing it or claiming vig, I am inclined to just take that claim at full face value and write her off the list of potential suspects - if she's lying, she'd presumably be a third anti-town killing group, which sounds a little far-fetched to me.

The presence of a gunsmith in the town line-up strongly suggests to me that there is at least one false positive, once again supporting the idea that Kilm is telling the truth. The gunsmith was probably also the closest thing we had to a cop

So I'm back to finding suspicion in people who were keen to get MBL lynched. In retrospect he

was

the doctor and the mafia would've known he wasn't one of them (and therefore, probably the doctor when Dodgy originally claimed it in a fit of rage), so I'm still mostly suspecting Nanook and pie.

I can see why OTM might think that this is part of a ploy to capitalise fully on MBL's death, but may I remind him - if Kilm is to be believed (which already I've outlined why I think she should be), the mafia

did not

kill MBL and therefore were I part of the mafia capitalising on MBL's death, it could not have been planned in advance. In any case, my motives are much more straightforward - to look for the people trying to take advantage of the confusion and get the doctor lynched on the basis at least one of them would be scum.

[gorckat]

I feel so left out, Das

Since three people bit it, should we assume there is an SK out there? Or 2 two person scum groups?

[Dasquian]

Ah crap, sorry - and after complaining when Kilm left me out, too

Kilm - one shot vig
Nanook - vanilla townie
Off the Mark- vanilla townie
superstring - vanilla townie
pete d - vanilla townie
gorckat - vanilla townie
pie - vanilla townie
Dasq - vanilla townie

[Off the Mark]

unvote

while we talk this out a bit. Still quite suspicious of you, Dasq. Just because you didn't plan it in advance, doesn't mean you aren't trying to capitalize on MBL's death.

Of the vanilla claimers, I am also suspicious of Nanook and Pete D. Mainly because I was suspicious of them on Day1 and they were late to join the "let's all massclaim" discussion. Not a strong argument, I know, but there it is.

I believe kilm's claim. Since we had a gunsmith and a watcher, it seems we had some less common roles, and a one-shot vig fits in with that. If I were a one-shot vig, I would have never chosen to kill MBL on Day 1 though. Why didn't you wait until you had a better target later in the game, kilm? Why would you choose someone who had claimed doc? Did you believe MBL's claim of not-doc?

[kilmenator]

I believe kilm's claim. Since we had a gunsmith and a watcher, it seems we had some less common roles, and a one-shot vig fits in with that. If I were a one-shot vig, I would have never chosen to kill MBL on Day 1 though. Why didn't you wait until you had a better target later in the game, kilm? Why would you choose someone who had claimed doc? Did you believe MBL's claim of not-doc?

I have played with MBL before, I know how he plays. The one game I was in with him, he convinced people to have 3 mislynches, I have never seen anyone as manipulative as him in a game. It seemed to fit the bill that he would have unclaimed doc, so that he could claim something else in the game. The other game I was in with him, he had a similar playstyle, and claimed 3 different things, leading the townies, good experienced players down with him. Take a look at DOOM II and you will see what I mean. MBL is a very good player as scum, and the recanted claim seemed to fit the bill for him. Plus, it prevented the scum from playing the mean game of WIFOM with us, which they obviously intended to do.

My ideas on setup- I am inclined to beleive that we have a mafia team, prolly 2 scums and an SK. So three scummy people. Three scums + an SK is to much anti town power, and since we had three kills last night, we definitely have three killing powers. So we have at least 3 lying people that we need to lynch.

So, my ideas Off the mark is #1- he wasnt really against claiming, but alluded to the fact that he didnt want to be figured in with scum because he thought scum would claim townie, which in my experience, usually they do not. My second suspect would be superstring- kinda lurking around, not saying too much serious about anything. And then a tie at #3 between Nanook and Gorkat- the former because I just dont feel right about him and the latter for pretty much the same reasons.

I am inclined to agree that we should look at the voting record on MBL and see who really wanted him dead, because scum would defintely have wanted to get rid of him, and they would know he was not one of them, also we know they intended to try to get him lynched today with the whole WIFOM game, so I am inclined to think that is a good place to start. Also, I think we all should outline our top three suspects at this time, if we do lynch scum today, which we have to, it will give us info to go on.

[Off the Mark]

So, my ideas Off the mark is #1- he wasnt really against claiming, but alluded to the fact that he didnt want to be figured in with scum because he thought scum would claim townie, which in my experience, usually they do not.

But... I was right... they did claim townie. I gotta say, I am very surprised Dasq did not claim cop. If he is scum, he missed a great opportunity there. So I am now less suspicious of him, because I doubt he would miss that.

[Off the Mark]

Unless he figured there was a real cop who is also lying about his claim. This is a possibility. Since our doc is dead, cop can't get protection tonight, so he would probably claim vanilla - and rightly so. Setup could easily be:

3 scum (lied in massclaim)
1 SK (lied in massclaim)
1 one-shot vig (kilm, told truth in massclaim)
1 cop (lied in massclaim)
1 doc DEAD
1 gunsmith DEAD
1 watcher DEAD
3 townies (1 DEAD, 2 told truth in massclaim)

IF this is the setup, (big if) we have a pretty good shot at a scum lynch if we simply lynch a vanilla claimer.

[Off the Mark]

One more thing, if that setup is correct, we are basically in LYLO. Mislynch + NK + SK kill = could be only 1 pro-town left after Night 2. So, um, yeah, you don't want to lynch me.

[kilmenator]

Unless he figured there was a real cop who is also lying about his claim. This is a possibility. Since our doc is dead, cop can't get protection tonight, so he would probably claim vanilla - and rightly so. Setup could easily be:

3 scum (lied in massclaim)
1 SK (lied in massclaim)
1 one-shot vig (kilm, told truth in massclaim)
1 cop (lied in massclaim)
1 doc DEAD
1 gunsmith DEAD
1 watcher DEAD
3 townies (1 DEAD, 2 told truth in massclaim)

IF this is the setup, (big if) we have a pretty good shot at a scum lynch if we simply lynch a vanilla claimer.

Cop would have been stupid to lie. Cop has innocents and/or guiltys so I am inclined to think there is not a cop the fact that you even brought it up makes you look more scummy to me. Plus, I highly doubt there would be 3 scums and an SK.

[Dasquian]

Wouldn't a cop lying in mass-claim be making a huge mistake? I would've thought that the benefit of (maybe) staying alive another night are outweighed by the risk of getting lynched when they do claim. Particularly hot on the heels of the "is Dodgy actually the doc" debacle - how could we trust that a cop claim from this point onwards isn't a mafia trying to pull a fast one?

If a cop

has

lied in mass-claim, I think their best play from here on in is to try and play out as best they can without ever claiming, even if they have/get a guilty result. I don't see how a cop could claim now, even (or

especially

) with a guilty result, and not risk the entire thing going down the pan.


What's LYLO btw?

[Off the Mark]

Cop would have been stupid to lie. Cop has innocents and/or guiltys so I am inclined to think there is not a cop the fact that you even brought it up makes you look more scummy to me. Plus, I highly doubt there would be 3 scums and an SK.

A cop just has one result at this point, and there is a reasonable chance his investigation target was killed, given the night carnage.

How does this speculation make me look more scummy to you? I don't understand that at all. When Dasq was the last to claim and we didn't have a cop yet, I expected Dasq-scum to claim cop. Now I am just trying to figure out all the possibilities since he claimed vanilla.

I just finished a mini game with 3 scum, an SK, and a neutral survivor. Town had a cop and a doc. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if this game had 3 scum + SK, especially since it looks like we had quite a few pro-town power roles.

LYLO = lynch scum or lose

[Off the Mark]

Wouldn't a cop lying in mass-claim be making a huge mistake? I would've thought that the benefit of (maybe) staying alive another night are outweighed by the risk of getting lynched when they do claim. Particularly hot on the heels of the "is Dodgy actually the doc" debacle - how could we trust that a cop claim from this point onwards isn't a mafia trying to pull a fast one?

If a cop

has

lied in mass-claim, I think their best play from here on in is to try and play out as best they can without ever claiming, even if they have/get a guilty result. I don't see how a cop could claim now, even (or

especially

) with a guilty result, and not risk the entire thing going down the pan.

A cop that claims and then lists out his results and then gets lynched (and verified as cop) is not all bad, you know. That would actually help the town quite a bit.

btw, by talking about the cop so much, I feel like I am breadcrumbing, but I assure you it is not intentional.

[gorckat]

LYLO=LYnch/LOse=Lynch scum or Lose

Given 3 people dropped, I don't think its impossible to imagine a cop not coming forward if they investigated one of the fallen.

Skimming posts today, pete and superstring catch my eye as being active lurky. Nanook and Pie make me raise an eyebrow as well, but that could just be OMGUSy thoughts since they both suspected me at various times. Both had gone after either/both CES/MBL.

[Dasquian]

Ta for explaining LYLO.

Doesn't LYLO work against the possibility of a cop holding out for tomorrow? Since tomorrow very well may be LYLO too, I still think it's too risky to have the potential of a real cop coming forward with game-winning information if that also means we have the potential of a mafia coming forward as a cop with game-losing "information" - hence my conclusion that, at this point, a real cop has backed themselves into a corner and should probably just play as a townie, passing off any useful investigation results they get as sharp intuition.

Honestly, though, I think the gunsmith was our cop. A gunsmith still effectively gets guilty/not-guilty, but with a false positive for vigs.

[Off the Mark]

You're probably right about the gunsmith being our cop-equivalent, Dasq.

OK so who should we lynch? Seems like Nanook is on most of our FOS lists so far. Shall we start voting? Or more to discuss?

[gorckat]

Reviewing some previous posts and recent stuff, I'm thinking:

Town: Das, OTM, kilm, me
Unknown: Pie, Nanook, pete, string

I know that's a partial restatement of what I said a short it ago, but I'm comfortable asserting that I think those three (you three, since we're the only ones posting at the moment ) are on the right side of things.