No, I said it's possible that both scums will kill him.
Guardian only lives if A) no scums kill him; or B) one scumgroup kills him, but there is a Doctor who is protecting him.
I see how it may appear likely to you that Guardian will live -- I posed several scenarios in which B is
possible
. However, I find it highly likely (say, 80%) that the SK will target Guardian (again, unless Guardian is the SK -- a probability which I find to be insignificant). I'd give about a 50% chance of scum targeting Guardian. There is only a 50% chance that there is even another Doctor alive, and probably only a 60% chance that any living Doctor would protect Guardian.
Thus, according to my calculations, Guardian will survive under the following scenarios:
---Supposing Guardian is a Doctor:
1) Doctor, SK kill, no Mafia kill, second Doctor protects (.8 x .5 x .3 = 0.12)
2) Doctor, no SK kill, Mafia kill, second Doctor protects (.2 x .5 x .3 = 0.03)
3) No SK kill, no Mafia kill (.2 x .5 = .10\)
--Total probability: 25%
--Supposing Guardian is a Mafiate
1) SK kill, second Doctor protects (.8 x .3 = 0.24)
2) No SK kill (0.2)
--Total probability: 44%
--Supposing Guardian is the SK
1) No Mafia kill (.5)
2) Mafia kill, second Doctor protects (.5 x .3 = 0.25)
--Total probability: 75%
So Guardian is most likely to survive if he is the SK, but
I have already stated that I firmly believe Guardian to be non-SK
.
If he is Mafia or Doc, then he is
likely to die
, which is a rejection of your "if your argument carries, Guardian is going to live" claim. The whole point of my initial post was to state that one reason Guardian is not the play is because he is likely going to die.
.
. Then again, I was sure I wouldn't be mislynched today, too, and here I am at -1 with two... players pushing for a hammer.
.
