Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[MrBuddyLee]

FOS: LML

. It's obvious why the scum didn't target glork -- he's too obvious a target for both, and if both target him, they both lose their kills. Optimal play is to trick the town into lynching our doc (fat chance), or a random kill of glork vs someone else -- with a < 50% chance of hitting glork to reduce the chance of kill nullification. Regardless, we have -plenty- of time to worry about Glork as doctor -- since even if he is scum, he gives us a garunteed scum lynch later in the game via a counterclaim -- when the time is right, the "real" doctor can counterclaim, and we can lynch both in whatever order makes sense until we get a scum.

This sounds like the words of a man who thought about this quite a bit last night.

Though...if LML is the last Fire mafia, I could see him having tried to kill Glork, failed, and now knowing Glork is Ice. But that's a thin reed upon which to hang a man, much less two.

That doesn't leave many possibilities for Doc at this point, though if Glork's not doc the actual one could be playing craftily.

vote: mneme

[MrBuddyLee]

Mneme, post something. Your looking more and more scummy to me every moment you don't post.

mFOS: goat

This, only six hours into the day, and nighttime hours to boot? Looks like a poorly executed calculated distancing strategy. Next time, give your scumpartner at least 24 hours before calling him out for not posting. (edit: it's actually parroting of AE, not sure if that changes things)

And hmm, followed up by:

Therefore,

vote: Vendagoat.

Hey, goat -- who'd you try to kill last night? Maybe they're Ice!

Could these guys really be that sloppy at distancing?

How does goat-mneme sound as Ice?

Sorry, but I'm just not buying what you're vending.

This made me notice the goat avatar, which is fantastic. Kudos, even though you're scum.

[mneme]

Finger of Stupidity: MBL

You obviously haven't played against me much before, since you think I'm an idiot. I'm insulted.

I'm pretty sure Vend (or Stewie) isn't sloppy at distancing -- he just didn't bother (though if xyz's partner is Stewie, he did try, at least a little). With xyz.

Moreover, your not-even-a-little-disguised "must have thought about this a lot last night" comment on my analysis misses the fact that it takes any competent scummer all of five minutes to come up with the approximately correct "kill the doc" odds for the mafia (much more exact than I gave, certainly) in this game. Which is why I think LML, who seems to be playing dumb on the subject, is suspicious.

If you're going to make an attack against me, how about one that doesn't assume I've been playing this game for less than a month, rather than more than four years, huh?

And yes, before anyone brings it up, my "stewie or vend must be Fire" argument assumes !bus. Assuming a bus is WIFOM, because it's in scum interest to drop an early bus less than 50% of the time.

[AutumnEvenings]

Mneme, post something. Your looking more and more scummy to me every moment you don't post.

mFOS: goat

This, only six hours into the day, and nighttime hours to boot? Looks like a poorly executed calculated distancing strategy. Next time, give your scumpartner at least 24 hours before calling him out for not posting. (edit: it's actually parroting of AE, not sure if that changes things)

Well, no. What AE said was:

And I have absolutely no read on nmeme. Please post something substantial, thanks.

. That's entirely different from "you're looking more and more scummy to me every moment you don't post." One is a call for a post with content in order to help get a read, the other is a shoddy accusation based on complete lack of posting (which isn't even true. He's not a top poster, no, but he did replace in and does have more posts than others, such as Stewie).

However, Vendagoat echoing my sentiments (though ramping them up into an accusation) looks somewhat scummy to me, partly probably because of confirmation bias, but also because it's much easier for scum to play follow-the-town than to come up with original thoughts.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey mneme, I'm sure you're god's gift to mafia, but how am I to know that considering you posted half as much content D1 as you have in fifteen hours today?

What's the motivator? Did your partner kick you in the nuts and remind you that you're bound to attract suspicion if you lurk?

[MrBuddyLee]

And yes, I did note that your post had substance and context behind the accusation, which is why I didn't go after you for it, Autumn. Goat's was an ill-advised and unsuccessful attempt at parroting.

[mneme]

Hey mneme, I'm sure you're god's gift to mafia, but how am I to know that considering you posted half as much content D1 as you have in fifteen hours today?

*shrug*. There was less to say on D1, and I replaced in, which usually keeps me off balance for a bit.

Today, there's lots to say -- among other things, the town having found scum -and- the doc games. And, of course, I was called out. But the fact that Vendagoat is the only person to neither vote for nor pledge a vote for xyzscum isn't something I made up, you know.

Nor something I knew before I started running numbers on the game.

If you'd ever (?) played with me, you'd know I'm usually about this talkative, not as quiet (which is to say, 5 posts. As opposed to 3 posts today. Are you paying attention, MBL?) as I was yesterday.

Anyways, trying to link me with the Goat is kinda funny, given that we're much more likely to find out that he's Fire after we lynch him -- not Ice.

[LoudmouthLee]

You all assumed I voted Glork. I didn't. Things just don't sit well with me. If you aren't a LITTLE bit paranoid about Glork being alive and Mafia, then you aren't a townie. Bottom line.

Glork. You would be doing the same exact thing that I would be doing if you were in my shoes. You claim doctor after you play the scummiest D1 I have ever seen you play. You may have been scum to get the real doctor to come out, but the real doctor saw through your ploy... I'm unsure. I am not the doc. But, still, Glork... I don't think you are either.

I am not going to lynch a claimed Doc. There is NO reason to. I would be remiss, however, if I did not show my worries about you. They need to be well documented.

FOS: LML. It's obvious why the scum didn't target glork -- he's too obvious a target for both, and if both target him, they both lose their kills. Optimal play is to trick the town into lynching our doc (fat chance), or a random kill of glork vs someone else -- with a < 50% chance of hitting glork to reduce the chance of kill nullification. Regardless, we have -plenty- of time to worry about Glork as doctor -- since even if he is scum, he gives us a garunteed scum lynch later in the game via a counterclaim -- when the time is right, the "real" doctor can counterclaim, and we can lynch both in whatever order makes sense until we get a scum.

:eyeroll:

So, you're telling me that NEITHER group NKed Glork because we'd mislynch him? That the Mafia isn't worried?

I disagree. And for someone who reads so "closely", read the rules. You need to unvote in order to change your vote.

***METAGAME TIME***

Finally,

FoS: AutumnEvenings

. She seems to have garnered much attention today. It fits into Glork's elephant puzzle that one of the scum is trying to get us to lynch AE. She may be Ice Mafia and was targeted last night. This also fits the fact that from what I have seen, AE is a fairly typical N1 kill. She's eloquent and dangerous. With the opening FoS's levvied on her, I believe that she could be ice mafia and the one of her earlier FoSers could be Fire Mafia. Just musing out loud here, but it's been noted in my handy-dandy notebook.

[mneme]

FOS: LML. It's obvious why the scum didn't target glork -- he's too obvious a target for both,...

:eyeroll:

So, you're telling me that NEITHER group NKed Glork because we'd mislynch him?

No, I'm saying that neither group NKed group because both were afrad/hoping the other group would NK him. The advantage of killing the doc -- especially in a game where 1-2 of the other players are already NK-immune -- isn't that hot compared to the disadvantage both scum get by losing a night's worth of kills.

Moreover, often enough, the "you didn't die, you must be suspicious" card is too tempting to play -- which is why I think MBL may be Icescum.

[mneme]

Moreover, often enough, the "you didn't die, you must be suspicious" card is too tempting to play -- which is why I think MBL may be Icescum.

Sorry -- why I think -you- (ie, LML) may be Icescum.

[LoudmouthLee]

Talking about underestimating someone's play...

I'd put myself out there to say that if I was scvum? Scum is careful. I am agressive and trying in a reckless pursuit of the truth. Read my last post again. Tell me that you do not see that.

[AutumnEvenings]

***METAGAME TIME***

Finally,

FoS: AutumnEvenings

. She seems to have garnered much attention today. It fits into Glork's elephant puzzle that one of the scum is trying to get us to lynch AE. She may be Ice Mafia and was targeted last night. This also fits the fact that from what I have seen, AE is a fairly typical N1 kill. She's eloquent and dangerous. With the opening FoS's levvied on her, I believe that she could be ice mafia and the one of her earlier FoSers could be Fire Mafia. Just musing out loud here, but it's been noted in my handy-dandy notebook.

First, I've only gotten two FoS's: one from Goat (and tell me that's not OMGUS) and one from Crub. *shrug*

More importantly, I know your whole hypo is invalid since I'm not mafia. I'm intrigued that you think in a game with Glork (as a claimed doc), you, MBL, Mert (I read his sig, seems people think he's good), and CTD (whom Glork seems to think highly of), I would be the best Night One kill, especially given my lack of participation Day One, the fact that I garnered a handful of votes and am thus feeling more lynchable in this game than I have in any of my other mafiascum games (and I was only killed Night One in one of them...), and the fact that most of these players don't know me from Eve.

But since you suspect Glork for still being alive, I suppose it's only fair to do the same to me.

[mneme]

LML: I'm not going to go down the WIFoM road of "it might not be a tell because you're too good". Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I've caught very good players in common tells before, and I'm sure it will happen again.

That said, you weren't the only one to comment on this. In fact, the other person (after you, though), was...surprise! Vendagoat! Again! He just keeps looking better and better.

[LoudmouthLee]

LML: I'm not going to go down the WIFoM road of "it might not be a tell because you're too good". Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I've caught very good players in common tells before, and I'm sure it will happen again.

That said, you weren't the only one to comment on this. In fact, the other person (after you, though), was...surprise! Vendagoat! Again! He just keeps looking better and better.

Make a case against the Goat. Make a case against me. I pushed for Glork's lynch yesterday. He was scummy.

I metagame. I do it very wonderfully. This game NEEDS metagaming, as the setup BEGS for it. Metagaming in this way is more apropos than not.

Mneme, I want you to make a case against ANYONE. I don't care if it's Osama Bin Laden.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork protected me last night, by the way, duh. I was mercilessly run up to lynchable, and in a nonsensical manner, and Glork theorized that's likely to mean scum from both teams were on me. If I was fire scum who lynched my partner the way xyzzy went down, I should be shot for sedition. Fire scum was likely to target me as possible Ice for nailing their partner, but it was a terrible choice considering I was a likely doc protect. Ice is obviously craftier scum, going after a player who was unlikely to be protected. Ice is going to let town do the dirty work for them and hope to outlast us.

The good news is, there are lots of good scumhunters on the job, and I predict this game will end well.

[LoudmouthLee]

Glork protected me last night, by the way, duh. I was mercilessly run up to lynchable, and in a nonsensical manner, and Glork theorized that's likely to mean scum from both teams were on me. If I was fire scum who lynched my partner the way xyzzy went down, I should be shot for sedition. Fire scum was likely to target me as possible Ice for nailing their partner, but it was a terrible choice considering I was a likely doc protect. Ice is obviously craftier scum, going after a player who was unlikely to be protected. Ice is going to let town do the dirty work for them and hope to outlast us.

The good news is, there are lots of good scumhunters on the job, and I predict this game will end well.

I spit up my coffee reading this post.

[MrBuddyLee]

/bow

[mneme]

LML: I already have. In fact, I've made two. Read the thread.

MBL: Er...what? How do you know Glork protected you? Did you get a "I was protected" message? Did it say it was Glork? And how do you know what Glork's inner thoughts on this were? This post makes no sense. Or is that the point?

[Vendagoat]

More importantly, I know your whole hypo is invalid since I'm not mafia. I'm intrigued that you think in a game with Glork (as a claimed doc), you, MBL, Mert (I read his sig, seems people think he's good), and CTD (whom Glork seems to think highly of), I would be the best Night One kill, especially given my lack of participation Day One, the fact that I garnered a handful of votes and am thus feeling more lynchable in this game than I have in any of my other mafiascum games (and I was only killed Night One in one of them...), and the fact that most of these players don't know me from Eve.

But since you suspect Glork for still being alive, I suppose it's only fair to do the same to me.

Wow a half assed claim, kissing of others asses and an elitist attitude.
Wern't you in fact the one complaining about such things?

Oh and

Hmm. First, I'd been suspicious of you all along.

again, this is all based on the whim of the winds.

It's time to get down off of that high horse.

VOTE:AE

[AutumnEvenings]

I'm not claiming anything. (Well, I'm claiming not-mafia, but that's not a claim.)

And I

have

been suspicious of you all along. See my second post (#31), where I said that I thought you and XYZ were scumbuddies.

Who's ass do you think I'm kissing? All I was doing was rebutting LmL's argument that I was suspcious since I should have been killed Night One by pointing out that there were lots of other "should have been killed Night Ones" and that his reasoning was flawed. I don't see that as elitist.

But I do so love your OMGUS, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

(If you have an actual case against me, go ahead and present it. If not, keep making posts like the above and completely ignoring my responses to them, as you ignored my response to your previous post.)

[Vendagoat]

You have a cavalier attitude. All post 236 was, is you dropping everyones names. Yes those players earned their titles, they know how they got them. Quit buttering them up.

And again I remind you, you have no case against me either. You stated on day one you had a feeling. A feeling, no logical thought. Just raw gut and luck and hey, you did get lucky on day 1. I'll give you that, but to tempt fate and keep doing it? We are here to find scum and kill them, not be led by blind fate.

Your entire case on me is a feeling.

My entire case on you is attitude and the fact that you just blow through like the wind.

[Vendagoat]

MBL: I have to agree with mneme. How they heck did you find that out?

[Vendagoat]

Oh and yah I forgot to mention this to AE, about yesterday's lynch.

Why did you attempt to get off the XYZ lynch at the last moment and switch to your "feeling" on me? Was that your subtle attempt at telling XYZ, no hard feelings or sorry I had to lynch yah buddy?

[AutumnEvenings]

Oh and yah I forgot to mention this to AE, about yesterday's lynch.

Why did you attempt to get off the XYZ lynch at the last moment and switch to your "feeling" on me? Was that your subtle attempt at telling XYZ, no hard feelings or sorry I had to lynch yah buddy?

No. That's absurd. When I came back, there were maybe 4 hours till deadline. I could have very, very, very easily lynched MrBuddyLee. My vote was on LoudMouthLee, and I voted XYZ, tying him with MBL, who would have been the lynch had LmL not unvoted.

Can you really not see the difference between me saying to Lee: "I was not the big obvious nightkill because any of the following 5 players are more obvious" and "buttering up" and "name dropping"?

My case on you, again, is:
1) You look like a partner to XYZ
2) You were very non-commital yesterday (especially concerning XYZ)
and now
3) You're blatantly twisting my words, ignoring my points, and engaging in a massive OMGUS attack.
4) That means that you're

not

actually engaged in any scum-hunting.

(what does "blow through like the wind" mean anyway?)

[Glork]

LmL: Under your current theory, if you think that AE is an IceScum, that would mean that one of the people attacking her is Fire who targeted her last night. I'd like you to analyze each person who has posted suspicon of AE, and I'd like you to explain which among them you think is most likely to be our final FireScum.