Mini 442 - Beast Wars Mafia Game Over

[Lowell]

We have a lot of tentative people. That worries me...

[=Confused=]

I have to agree. I feel like we're all just sitting around doing nothing

[Lowell]

That no one wants to join the aimee wagon makes me feel pretty good about my vote, actually.

[=Confused=]

Why?

You gave no reasoning other than a hunch... Not really hardcore evidence or anything close. I'd be worried if people did follow you on that. Feel free to make a case though...

[Aimee]

Analysis coming later.

[Aimee]

Some points about some people.

1. Primoris / =Confused=

I remember a few people (notably ryan) thinking that Primoris was scummy. Checking back over Primoris' posts, I don't see anything scummy in them - rather, I see them as quite pro-town. Lots offer quite acute and analytical explanations and observations. The only notable thing about his posts are that in his last one, he said HackerHuck was less active, a point I didn't and don't agree with. After that, it was replacement. Overall, judging by his posts, I would not say Primoris was suspicious at all.

After a long gap, =Confused= replaces in. I like his first post. He basically says my entire opinion of Albert, which gives me confidence that we are thinking similarly. I find his points against TG quite good as well. However, one thing I find very interesting is that he focuses on, what are in my mind, a quite minor issue (an inconsistency of thought about myself), and also focuses in great detail on TG's dislike of Teffc being replaced. The thing I note that the main issue for me - the fact that he seems pretty non-committal and "in the middle ground about anything" - he mentions only briefly before moving on. That said, this is hardly a scum-tell, merely an interesting point. Hang on, he elaborates more later. That said, I don't know why he didn't in his original post.

His scum-list in the next paragraph is interesting. He starts with TG and Dusk, then it is Albert (interestingly who he had previously said would be unlikely scum), and then STD and myself (who he encouraged to post more), and then Sweeny and Jordan. Lowell tops the list of town-ness, which I find very interesting indeed. I would like =Confused= to elaborate on this. The very fact he highlights some of Lowell's behaviour as "bad" in the next post seems to highlight my point here - Lowell doesn't seem at the most pro-town player in the game at all...

Later he says he is happy with his vote on TG, but doesn't expand on this point.

So yes, that's basically all we have so far on Confused. Primoris was in my eyes pro-town, and Confused has done nothing to change my opinion, and has, if anything, strengthened that. Although he has some things I find bizarre (Lowell at the top of his townie list being the main one), I see him as most definitely pro-town at this point.[/url]

[Aimee]

I would also like to apologise for referring to Confused as a man in the previous post.

(I know I hate that...)

[Albert B. Rampage]

So who is the most suspicious person in your mind ?

[Aimee]

So who is the most suspicious person in your mind ?

I'm going to do that for every player over the next several days. Hope to have a definite answer by then.

I know this is a non-answer, really. I need to re-read before deciding anything majorly. Although tentively I would put Dusk and TrustGossip as my top two.

[Albert B. Rampage]

On my side, I would somehow put Sweeny as one of my top choices for being unreadable. The others give off a fairly pro-town vibe.

[=Confused=]

His scum-list in the next paragraph is interesting. He starts with TG and Dusk, then it is Albert (interestingly who he had previously said would be unlikely scum), and then STD and myself (who he encouraged to post more), and then Sweeny and Jordan. Lowell tops the list of town-ness, which I find very interesting indeed. I would like =Confused= to elaborate on this. The very fact he highlights some of Lowell's behaviour as "bad" in the next post seems to highlight my point here - Lowell doesn't seem at the most pro-town player in the game at all...[/url]

Fair enough, I should have mentioned at the time that several people were very close together in that list. For instance Jordan and Lowell are pretty interchangeable after what happened with Ryan yesterday and with Jordan's roleclaim. I feel that while those three were arguing during most of day one that the real scum were sitting back and letting them go at it with the hope that they would get themselves strung up (which almost did happen). This also ties into my thinking that TG is scum as he had one foot in each camp fanning the fames to a point.

Other interchangeable players are Save The Dragons and Aimee as they pretty much have the same posting habits and I would like to hear more from them.

Albert is still high up on my list because he could be a possible SK. I know I know, the WIFOM about the lyrics he posted being a death wish. His day one play just left me still feeling uneasy about him despite that he managed to out a scum. Although so far today I do see him as being quite helpful in discussion.

[Dusk]

I could get behind an Aimee badwagon, but only withh good reason, Lowell.

Aimee has done some fairly pro-town things. She was an early voter for teffc/ Fraggle, and she varies her suspicions. Yet I have my suspicions of her, too.

I'm goon now, everyone! And that's mostly due to this game.

[Aimee]

His scum-list in the next paragraph is interesting. He starts with TG and Dusk, then it is Albert (interestingly who he had previously said would be unlikely scum), and then STD and myself (who he encouraged to post more), and then Sweeny and Jordan. Lowell tops the list of town-ness, which I find very interesting indeed. I would like =Confused= to elaborate on this. The very fact he highlights some of Lowell's behaviour as "bad" in the next post seems to highlight my point here - Lowell doesn't seem at the most pro-town player in the game at all...[/url]

Fair enough, I should have mentioned at the time that several people were very close together in that list. For instance Jordan and Lowell are pretty interchangeable after what happened with Ryan yesterday and with Jordan's roleclaim. I feel that while those three were arguing during most of day one that the real scum were sitting back and letting them go at it with the hope that they would get themselves strung up (which almost did happen). This also ties into my thinking that TG is scum as he had one foot in each camp fanning the fames to a point.

Other interchangeable players are Save The Dragons and Aimee as they pretty much have the same posting habits and I would like to hear more from them.

Albert is still high up on my list because he could be a possible SK. I know I know, the WIFOM about the lyrics he posted being a death wish. His day one play just left me still feeling uneasy about him despite that he managed to out a scum. Although so far today I do see him as being quite helpful in discussion.

Ok. So are you saying that Lowell is up there because he was sort of "in the fore-front" in day 1?

[Aimee]

2. Save The Dragons

OverTheUnder was a nonety. STD replaced in early June, quite late into the game. He appears to have quite limited access (something I have noticed elsewhere as well as in this game), so I am pretty sure his lurking is not strategic.

His analysis is... strange. I have read games with STD in them, and I know he doesn't have the most orthodox playstyle, yet some things he says are completely not backed up. Mainly focusing on his suspicion list. He says Jordan, Primoris and Fraggle are scum. He never in his analysis mentions Primoris, and only makes one reference to Fraggle, which could most certainly not point to him as scum (he was asking for replacements to come in). So his scum list is a bit weird, to say the least. I want to know his reasons for thinking Primoris is scum.

Later he says that Fraggle's posts have had a "weird" vibe. He promises to give Fraggle a case if he goes after him, yet never does this. I still am interested in hearing this.

He made a reference to ABR's restriction not making sense in the flavor. What do you think of the current situation concerning his lyrics?

I find some of his posts interesting - they contain quite general statements, yet don't really explain them. He said at the end of day 1 that I was suspicious, but not scummy.

Also, why don't you want to confirm Jordan's role? Call me a noob, but doesn't that benefit the town?

He has also expressed he doesn't think Lowell is scum because this is his playstyle (I agree).

Overall, not much to go on. I find it quite suspicious he doesn't give explanations about Primoris or Fraggle (I would like to see them), and he seems to lurk quite a lot. More analysis is definitely appreciated. Despite this, I wouldn't put him as a major candidate to be scum at the moment, although it may become a possibility nearer the endgame.

[=Confused=]

Ok. So are you saying that Lowell is up there because he was sort of "in the fore-front" in day 1?

In a nutshell yes. My list is really based on who I think is scum after reading the game though, so there are links between the players and where they are in position. Of course it's not set in stone and if my opinion of one player changes it could affect possible links that I thought where there or not... if that makes any sense.

[JordanA24]

2. Save The Dragons

Later he says that Fraggle's posts have had a "weird" vibe. He promises to give Fraggle a case if he goes after him, yet never does this. I still am interested in hearing this.

Instead, he just hammered him when his lynch looked inevitable, my gut's saying this stinks of bussing, in fact, despite the evidence for him, my gut's still screaming he's scum. I really don't know what to make of StD.

[Lowell]

Could we get some freakin' votes here already?

Someone take a stand. I say Aimee is scum.

[JordanA24]

Some of us are already voting TrustGossip, I still don't get why Aimee is scummy.

[Dusk]

And I suppose that I should be the flagbearer for the case against teffc? It's in my best interest to oppose a possible quick lynch of ryan, only because I see teffc's behavior as a greater evil. And now she has free license to lurk because she is up for replacement.

Could we get a vote count and the status of the last replacement, mod?

The case against teffc is that the sum of her testimony is either; worthless (posting just for the sake of activity), vague (innumerable 'too' statements), or nonexistent (the long period of lurking until asking for a replacement).

But like I said earlier, her getting replaced is generally bad because now we have to wait for fraggle to post enough to analyse.

Unvote: teffc/Fragglescum

Fragglerock

: extended lurk period after replacing, no urge to establish town-ness even though his predecessor has/had a bandwagon on them. Why?

This is not really running away. He has been consistently attacking teffc and Fraggle; that's why I think he's town.

The only post that MAY be slowing down on teffc/Fraggle is here:

And Fraggle and aimee... ehhh. They're doing their "part". It's negligible, but it's not particularly scummy, yet it's not the most helpful either.

Obligatory

Minor FOS: Aimee

for doing exactly what FraggleScum had done, albeit in a less obvious manner.

But this is as close as it gets.

Albert I don't understand you lack of suspicion on TrusttGossip. Can you explain, esp. what these last two quotes mean? Is trustGossip on your innocent list because he's suspicious of Aimee here?

[Albert B. Rampage]

TG doesn't arouse my suspicion because he has been consistent in attacking teffc/fragglescum. I disagree with the players who target him for that.

[Aimee]

3. Albert B. Rampage

Firstly, I ain't analysing the lyrics. I don't see the point. Secondly, I am not particularly impressed with his post restriction tactic - I don't see how basically being unable to analyse and evaluate considerably helps the town. Despite this, as Albert says, his tactic did help to catch Fraggle, the Godfather. And that brings me to my major point - I don't think ABR is scum.

Here is his first post on day 2:

I'd like to start the day with a statement: I have no restriction. Honestly, I was bored and wanted to mix things up a little. I laughed my ass out when I succeeded in outing a mafia by setting this little plan in motion tough. Fragglescum trying to copy me in the middle of the day like that was quite ridiculous.

Of course, I can't prove anything and I expect most of you to be suspicious of me because of what I did day 1. I can't blame you. However, I do think that someone else deserves the spotlight today: Primoris.

Primoris has been keeping a very neutral stance, except with ryan who he went after like a madman(ryan is town btw, trustgossip).

Vote Primoris

After basically doing an analysis of Primoris and =Confused=, I found them in my eyes ot be very pro-town. The very fact he doesn't is quite surprising - I don't really see any confounding actions that point to Primoris being scum.

His second post is pretty dodgy, and basically explains how his tactic could have gone wrong. He says he tried quite valiantly to shift suspicion onto Fraggle, something hard to do by just using his rhyming. That could have seriously backfired. Tell me, Albert - if someone you considered incredibly pro-town had been near lynching, would you have stuck your neck out on the line and said that, and who you thought were suspicious - in effect breaking your restriction? If not, why?

I also dislike his second post because it says he thought Jordan, HH and ryan were pro-town. This is pretty obvious - HH and ryan were dead and confirmed, and Jordan has claimed! Pretty much a case of saying something that doesn't really say much. Furthermore, he says he has done re-reads that basically show he finds Primoris suspicious, but doesn't explain why, which I find very interesting.

After some theory and flavor related posts he comes back and says he finds myself and TG pro-town. I find this interesting - if TG was lynched and found to be scum, I would be suspicious of Albert. He also says he finds Sweeny pretty unreadable, something that is hard to argue with. However, with some scummy people around, targetting unreadable people right now isn't exactly the best strategy.

Some players he notably hasn't commented on - he seems to find Lowell suspicious, but hasn't commented at all on Dusk, STD and =Confused=, as well as possibly others. Albert, could you give us a list of suspicions, and reasons for your list?

Overall, I think this extract from a post by =Confused= really shows my views on Albert.

First off Albert's faking of a post restriction, while funny and entertaining for him has left me pulling my hair out. He pretty much has a clean slate as far as in game actions from the start of day two as we can't really pin him down on anything. We can try and figure out what we thought he meant with his votes, but then he can always come out and be all like... “You're just misrepresenting me and my intentions” and we won't really know if that truly is the case... so yeah, blah to your day one play Albert!

That said, I highly doubt he is apart of the scum group after Fraggle so humorously tried to copy his lyric posting ways. But still...BLAH!

I agree with this. It would be very illogical as scum for Albert to go quite so hard against Fraggle. This makes me think he is pro-town, even though his actions are somewhat dubious in places.

[Albert B. Rampage]

To address some of your easier points, I will say that the fact that I didn't support the ryan and Jordan bandwagon to be a few points in my favor. This post was a botched attempt at defending ryan:

Ryan like all soldiers fought, to be accepted
Specially by those who rejected him the most
See nobody's perfect
And off course everyone makes mistakes

Vote: ryan

ryan (4) : deezr, Lowell, HackerHuck, Aimee
Albert B. Rampage (2) : Primoris, TrustGossip

I was also pretty much against the Jordan bandwagon. There is no proof that Jordan is town, however. That is the reason I particularly dislike this post:

I also dislike his second post because it says he thought Jordan, HH and ryan were pro-town.

This is pretty obvious

- HH and ryan were dead and confirmed, and

Jordan has claimed

!

Jordan's alignment is absolutely ambiguous, just like my own and everybody elses. The only players who know who is mafia is the scum.

FoS Aimee

Also, the only reason that I actually broke my false restriction was to avoid players to think that I was the SK. WIFOM ? Yeah...

One last thing: I believe that a mafia couldn't have bussed his teammate alone; they both must have done it together. That is why I am reconsidering Aimee and TrustGossip. Their attacks on FG might not be good indicators of towniness.

[Dusk]

What does "WIFOM" mean? I se it pop up a lot.

[JordanA24]

What does "WIFOM" mean? I se it pop up a lot.

WIFOM

[Sweenytodd]

Okay guys...I apologize for my prolonged absence... Here are things as I see them right now based on a Re-rad of D1:

Aimee: Aimee has posted some good analysis which I like. The bit that I don't like is her voting... She has a random vote and a vote for Ryan. After this she posts her analysis which while being good analysis, she proceeds to unvote. Often times when I re-read a thread and post substantial analysis, I will follow it up with a vote on who I found most scummy... This is not the case, she unvotes and places several FOS's. Her next vote is for Teffc, which is good... It ended up being scum and one of her top suspects in her anlysis, but as soon as Teffc is replaced she removes the vote. This is page 9... Her next vote doesn't come until page 19. The reason I don't like this is I like to look at voting relationships and when I see someone remove their vote for 10 pages only to vote for the same person it raises n eyebrow from me...

Albert B. Rampage: Albert frustrates me... I've said it before and I'll say it again. I don't like the fake-restriction. That being said I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for today, it would have had to be SUBSTANTIAL bussing to be on Teffc/Fraggle as much as he was yesterday. That being said.. Albert, I would love to here more from you... My frustrations D1 come from not having your suspicions outlined

in your own words

... quoting is useful to back up your point but I would like to see a substantial post that isn't 90% quotes and 10% your commentary...

Dusk: I think Dusk has played a strong game since replacing in. Provided good flavor analysis along with catching Fraggle's claim issues. Seems active and eager to participate, seems pro-town to me.

JordanA24: Claimed RB, still un-confirmed. Seems to have backed off of his D1 play an awful lot, going from this:

I've already posted all the evidence that there is for Lowell being scum, now it's up to the rest of the town to believe me. I'm willing to put my head on the line if Lowell isn't scum.

to this:

TG, if you've been reading recently, you'd realise that I now think Lowell to be protown.

If anything, it seems that D2 has sobered Jordan a bit, he seems more tentative than he was D1. Would like more analysis from him atm, his D2 posts have been a bit lacking in content (I know, pot calling kettle black... bite me).

Lowell: I defended Lowell D1 because it seemed like Ryan and Jordan were going after him to the exclusion of other options... And he has yet to seem anti-town to me. The only concern I have would be a WIFOM which I will discount as holding weight, that he could be the SK and killed his strongest attacker overnight... Like I said... Wouldn't be the right play so I will discount that idea. His suspicion of Aimee seems consistent (he was suspicious of her D1), though I would like to see your reasonings Lowell, it is D2 now.

Save The Dragons: STD replaced in late, he hasn't added too much content in general. I am suspicious of his interaction with Fraggle, saying he wouldn't vote him without a case and the placing the hammer vote once it looked inevitable... He commented on why he thought Fraggle was suspicious and FOS'd him while voting someone else (Jordan). I have seen this used as a scum distancing tactic before... That being said, I'd like to hear more from him.

=Confused=: Replaced into the game late, seems to have taken quite strongly to attacking Trustgossip, which I don't particularly mind as he managed to get through D1 with very little prodding... I like to have lots of people under suspicion so that people don't coast to endgame without haveing defended themselves at least once.

TrustGossip: I don't mind the pressure on Trust, I feel like he has slid under the radar thus far... I have liked his analysis of the game to this point, though I can see Confused's issue with fence-sitting... The one play which I didn't like was his end-of-day jump on Ryan. It seemed overly definative when I don't believe the evidence supported it...

That all being said my order of suspicion looks like this... From most suspicious to least.

Aimee
STD
Jordan
TrustGossip
Albert
Confused
Lowell
Dusk

Vote: Aimee