Mini 458 - Game over!

[Kate]

I'm gonna Unvote:Dylan, I don't think he'd be a good lynch for today, .

did you mean to bold this?

Oh yeah, I did...ooops

Unvote:Dylan41985

[Numenorean7]

I had a number of things to say reading the last page, but most of them were said by someone else further on, so there is no need to repeat them.

I'm not entirely sure what to think about recent developments. I am glad the town has enough sense to recognize that MoS's case against me based purely on lack of interaction with Adel was weak. This very case has made me wonder about MoS. I wouldn't expect an argument based purely on lack of interaction between two people from a player of MoS's expertise. I felt at the time he must have some other reason. Adel's accusation of rolefishing is rather excessive, but it sorta rings true.
Still, I'm certainly not going to switch my vote to MoS. Unless a lot more evidence turns up (which seems unlikely), he is not the lynch for today.

I actually wouldn't mind a dylan lynch, I don't think he's been a help to the town, he just pops in and votes the biggest bandwagon, no explanation, more like a help to the mafia. I also think we would gain just as much info. from a dylan lynch, as any other lynch.

I'm gonna Unvote:Dylan, I don't think he'd be a good lynch for today

Why the sudden change of heart?

[NabakovNabakov]

^^ Because a lynch for Dylan would still go through without her vote, and she doesn't want to look bad by being one of the four people on the wagon.
Just a guess.

[Crub]

^^ Because a lynch for Dylan would still go through without her vote, and she doesn't want to look bad by being one of the four people on the wagon.
Just a guess.

Does anyone else find this post strange? That's not why I think she unvoted dylan.

[NabakovNabakov]

I've never found Kate to be very pro-town, and since the actual debates over the VI ended a while ago, it mostly seems to be a matter of taking sides on the issue. The only thing that's happened since Kate voted Dylan that might have inspired a change is that THAdmrial got chewed out for his vote. If Kate can provide a better reason, I'd be more that willing to accept it.

[Kate]

I actually just thought the debate between Adel and MoS was going somewhere and I thought what I said about gaining information from a dylan lynch wasn't actually gonna happen, and we could gain alot more with lynching someone else. I know I sound completely stupid, but I just changed my mind about everything I said earlier

[Numenorean7]

NabNab, in response to your implicit request that someone make a case against you, I've reread your posts in isolation. One thing I noticed is that the first thing you pointed out was MoS's rapid change of heart about J-man. You unvoted later ("Your defense has convinced me to Unvote. A single occurance of odd/scummy behavior is not enough to support a lynch especially when it can be fairly rationally explained.") Now that he has also dropped suspicion against pickem (and ThAdmiral), and seems to have left me behind too after a somewhat unimpressive case, what is your opinion?

One inconsistency I noticed:

I happen to be one of them people who will refuse to vote Dylan no matter how scummy he looks.

Utimately, assholes like Dylan are an exercise in futility and frustration, but I still refuse to vote someone with only a 25% chance of being scum (because play as mystifyingly incompetent as this masks any attempts to get a true read on the situation).

I therefore Vote: J-Man for his opportunistic bandwagoning, poor reasoning, and lack of contribution to true discussion.

Why did you label Dylan as the VI and declare you will never vote him, while voting J-man for almost exactly the same behavior?

Looking through MoS's posts in isolation, I noticed that he was doing some vote-hopping early in the game: from carrotcake to J-man to molestargazer to J-man. The very next post after he votes J-man a second time, he says, "I would like J-man to claim." This didn't strike me as scummy at the time: after all, they were mostly just random votes, and J-man was at L-2 when MoS suggested a claim. But I did notice it this time through, and I thought I would mention it in conjunction with Adel's accusations of rolefishing.

Also, a minor contradiction:

Scum are generally not willing to commit to declaring a person definitely scum or town, because that puts them in a position they can't back out of.

He has declared several people definitely town (e.g. J-man, Adel) and several people definitely scum (e.g. J-man, pickem). He's backed out of these declarations readily enough.

More coming later, perhaps, but I have to go.

[NabakovNabakov]

You make a very good point there Num, and I think the most important difference between my non-voting of Dylan and my vote on J-Man is that Dylan was L-1 while J-Man had no votes. If I had voted Dylan, it would have had a definite effect on the game, voting J-Man was making a statement and largely lashing out against the type of play that was going to get the VI lynched. I never looked for a wagon and dropped my vote immediately when Crub replaced. I guess I'll have to admit to losing my cool in that post.

However, the rest of your case is pathetic, and it just devloves into a further case on MoS.

Somebody

accuse me of

something

Dammit! I feel left out.

I will adress questions on the play of MoS and Adel after I have blocked off several hours to read the thread. They've both played too large a role to deserve anything less.

[Numenorean7]

However, the rest of your case is pathetic

What rest of the case? That was the only scummy point I noticed in my brief glance over your posts. I would like to hear your thoughts on MoS, but you've already promised that. I'm looking forward to it.

Somebody accuse me of something Dammit! I feel left out.

I did my best. If you want to be accused of something, you'd need to start doing something worth accusing

[Mastermind of Sin]

This isn't saying I'm positive MoS is town, but if shenanigans like that start happening, he pobably is.

Good warning. Do you think Curb's vote is an example of that?

ckd: my vote for pickem was an example of me following MoS's lead. I gave him the benifit of the doubt, and I was prepared to unvote if he came to lynch -1 without me being convinced.

MoS's posting has confused me for most of the game. From his early post declaring that I am definitely protown on, I've looked for an explanation. For a little while I decided that he was the cop, and he was collecting evidence, but it wasn't until he made a vote for Num7 that I figured out that he is scum rolefishing. My vote for ThAdmiral was a ploy to see who would attack me for my vote on ThAdmiral and not also criticize MoS.

So, you're claiming that you've been following me around all game as a "ploy" to see if I was scum or cop? Bullshit.

And what information would you have gained out of anyone attacking you and not me? You're the one who blatantly followed my lead, while avoiding voting for your scumbuddy, in order to not form a wagon on him.

What is the difference between a cop collecting evidence and a scum rolefishing? The cop is more interested in pressure after the bandwagon has formed- adding stress to the scum hoping for a slip, and the rolefisher is more interested in creating the framework for a bandwagon.

I do not think that I am ascribing scum like attributes to MoS. If he really thought pickem was scum pickem would be hanging right now. In my games I've led several bandwagons to lynch, I have a horrible record for success, but when I've been convinced that someone was scum the evidence that led me to that belief has always been enough to convince other people. Usually my target has been the VI- and a mislynch has been the result, which is why I am so weary of lynching weak players now. I would rather have saved this case against MoS until tomorrow, but another lesson from my games is that I am really likely to die night 1.

I do not think it is unfair to expect MoS to have identified scum by now if he were town. Look at some of his games, he is a great player. I don't claim that he should have 100% accuracy or anything, but he should've been convinced that he found scum and presented his case in a forceful enough way to produce a lynch long before now. He is not town, so his case against Num7 must be for rolefishing.

If his case against Num7 had been good, I would still be questioning his alignment, and I would have continued to follow his lead. I have no trouble giving a better player the benefit of the doubt- most of the time they will be town and as long as I am able to keep an open and skeptical mind I don't think it is a bad idea.

Have you ever heard of the Cassandra award? This is a scummy that used to be awarded when I first joined Mafiascum (it was removed after the first year I was here). This award was given to the person who continued to find scum in their games, but could not convince the town to lynch them. I've been a shoe-in for this award for the last two years, had it still existed. Phoebus still ribs me about it from time to time. Anyways, the point is, had you read my games, you'd notice the pattern of me not being able to get scum actually lynched. Pooky and I had a rivarly for almost a year, because he was always scum and got me lynched when I found him out as scum. The fact that you would assert that a protown-me would have been able to bring about a lynch already is quite laughable.

[Adel]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

[molestargazer]

Also mole I feel justified pointing out that you've been pretty inactive until now.

That's fine, I can't disagree with you. Hopefully that's all over now.

No I'm pointing out that ckd laid down this huge case why me adel and MoS are scum buddies and MoS is the craftiest of our little scumgroup. Yet he still thinks Adel is the play?

I don't have time to re-read all this, so I'll accept that.

Apologies I can't post more, I'm heading off down to the Doc's now - nothing serious. Will try and post again later.
Heh, just realised the irony of me going to the Doc's in a mafia game. I'm not going to ask him for a night protect, just to change a dressing.

[molestargazer]

EBWOP:

Heh, just realised the irony of me going to the Doc's in a mafia game. I'm not going to ask him for a night protect, just to change a dressing.

Should be DURING a mafia game, not IN a mafia game, if it's not obvious.

Yes, I'm a bit obsessed with grammar.

[Numenorean7]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

I don't like this. Experience doesn't make one omnipotent. If MoS could "generate a case strong enough to lynch any player", wouldn't that mean he would always win, whether scum or town? People are different enough, unpredictable enough, and clever enough, that it's quite possible MoS hasn't "learned how to get scum lynched".

@MoS
I don't see a Cassandra award listed in any of the Scummmies in the Wiki....

[Mastermind of Sin]

That's because it doesn't exist anymore.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

It's a great failing of mine. I'm currently working on changing my playstyle in order to try and be more successful at finding scum (this game happens to be an example), but I haven't ever really focused on improving my ability to convince everyone else. At least, once I die and they know I'm protown, they can go back and lynch the scumz.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

I don't like this. Experience doesn't make one omnipotent. If MoS could "generate a case strong enough to lynch any player", wouldn't that mean he would always win, whether scum or town? People are different enough, unpredictable enough, and clever enough, that it's quite possible MoS hasn't "learned how to get scum lynched".

@MoS
I don't see a Cassandra award listed in any of the Scummmies in the Wiki....

I mentioned it in both the threads for the 2005 and 2006 scummies. I believe it was an award or suggested award for the 2004 scummies, but I can't find that thread.

[Numenorean7]

That's because it doesn't exist anymore.

But shouldn't the award be listed in the 2003 or 2004 scummies even if it has been discontinued?

[pickemgenius]

I just want to mention a few things that I don't think have been mentioned yet.

If I die because I was being useful to the town, all the better. That merely proves that my methods were effective, and the scum felt threatened by me

- Not neccessarily, scum kills are totally WIFOM, and they can be used to try and further manipulate the town in to mislynching even more.
That you should know.


--Also, does this Cassandra Award almost sound like an appeal to emotion?

my vote for pickem was an example of me following MoS's lead. I gave him the benifit of the doubt, and I was prepared to unvote if he came to lynch -1 without me being convinced.

- So you're saying it was basically a pressure vote?

[Mastermind of Sin]

That's because it doesn't exist anymore.

But shouldn't the award be listed in the 2003 or 2004 scummies even if it has been discontinued?

It should be, unless they never gave out an award for it. I didn't join until 04 (i think), so I wouldn't know. This conversation is quickly becoming irrelevant, however. The original point is that it has been documented that I have a hard time convincing people to follow me to a lynch, so saying that I am scum for not having convinced the town to lynch someone already is absolute bullshit.

[Adel]

my vote for pickem was an example of me following MoS's lead. I gave him the benifit of the doubt, and I was prepared to unvote if he came to lynch -1 without me being convinced.

- So you're saying it was basically a pressure vote?

Almost. I was willing to follow MoS's lead up until a point, thinking that he had picked up on something that I missed.

Did anyone notice how many times I asked MoS to present his full case against pickem?

Does everyone else realize that MoS's 61% victory record indicates that he is a very good player?

That MoS won the Cassandra award says that three years ago he was good at picking out scum, but not so good at convincing the town. Receiving that award would prompt any player to become more confident when he thinks he finds scum, and try harder to convince the town that he is correct. Three years later he claims that he still isn't any good at convincing the town, unbelievable: I do not believe it.

[ThAdmiral]

I've been a bit busy recently but I'm back now.

We all have to realize that although we've been meandering about for the past couple of weeks looking at people, voting them and then moving on, our choices here are final.
I also think, though, that we should not be afraid to vote. I will be looking very closely at anyone who does not vote somebody by day's end.
I must stress once again: choose carefully. Just because Adel and Mos are the current flavor, it does not mean you have to vote for either of them; just vote for who you think is the scummiest. Of course if you think it is one of them, go right ahead.
What I mainly don't want to hear is: well I would've voted for X, but it wouldn't have made a difference so I just voted for Y, since he already had a few votes on.

[Numenorean7]

Hear Hear!

[pickemgenius]

I'll vote once I figure out why some people still think dylan is a smart play.

[Crub]

Is anyone not completely confused by this game? I get the feeling no matter who we lynch and no matter if they're town or scum I'll have not much of an idea who is scum for tomorrow.

Can we get an updated votecount please?