Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[Hopkirk]

I can't really tell what's going on at the moment, a bit confused. Need to read through more.

Goodmorning looking townish atm so staying on lucky.

[Not_Mafia]

Power

Hopkirk (1)-

Lucky2u

Lucky2u (1)-

Hopkirk

goodmorning (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

goodmorning

Wisdom

serrapaladin (0)-

Witness Protection (1)-

Scripten

Scripten (1)-

Witness Protection

Not Voting (1)-

serrapaladin

Courage

Zebulin (2)-

BBMolla, Perpetual Nonsense

Perpetual Nonsense (0)-

BBMolla (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Zebulin

Deadline is in

(expired on 2015-02-09 20:00:00)

- Feb 9th 20:00 GMT

[Hopkirk]

Well this will be rather easy for me today. GM seems town enough that I can just

VOTE: hopkirk

It's not that I feel strongly about Hopkirk, We could be the town block sure but I agree that discussion of that doesn't really gain us anything.

So could you answer my question about why you didn't vote either of us if we were both suspicous?

Is this molla's usual style? It feels rather blunt and decisive. I did notice someone saying he usually makes short posts so idk.

I don't particularly like scrifton or WP. I do like serra though. I doubt this is the scumless group.

[Scripten]

scrifton

Dude.

[Hopkirk]

Sorry, i realized i'd put a f instead of a p by mistake after posting but didn't notice the o as well.

[Lucky2u]

So could you answer my question about why you didn't vote either of us if we were both suspicous?

Partially because the comment was an exasperated sarcastic comment and partially because I can't vote two people at once. While I didn't mean to be gone for two days, sitting back did reveal GM to be pretty dang town, so now I don't have to choose!

[serrapaladin]

@gm: does his frustration read genuine to you?

In some ways, but the jumping around reads fake.

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Obviously I was working from a bit of hyperbole, but still... you don't often see scum placing little things into their posts that are meant to slightly push the town to keep suspicion off of them?

You DO see them. That's my point. There is very little that a Scum can do that's going to be THAT subtle.

I said that the scum motivation from asserting that you are part of the all-town group would be insurance for after a lynch. Say serrapaladin or myself flipped town. "Oh, well, that must mean that we're the all-town group. Hahaha, I was right. What a funny coincidence."

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Does it really? I could easily see scum subtly pushing the notion that their group is all town, if not as obviously as scrip suggests.

Yes, but you'd have to be an idiot not to look at all options no matter what anyone else says.

ugh 110 is not even a good post
why do you people think he is town

Scrip wasn't really using his frustration in a way that might give him an advantage, so I quite like him for town. I don't really know what you mean by him "jumping around"?

I don't have a full-blown townread on zeb, but I have no doubt that town!zebulin could absolutely come up with an interpretation of BB's meta and apply it as in 110, be it correct or not. I somewhat liked that his early play felt somewhat loose. That being said. the only questions he's asked that are actually relevant to his actions and understanding of the game are why people are voting for him, which could well be the scummy flavour of self-preservation. There were some details in PN's posts that pinged more than anything by zeb though - mentioning how much time we have on the DL for one, and the unrequested list of whom to lynch, going very much along the path of least resistance. I don't buy that people can read that slot from the level of seriousness.

I still need to ISO the other third of Wisdom, but from what I remember, he hasn't said much of anything. He did ask if Scripten was around once, then never followed up when he (Scripten )said he was.

Why are you not giving my play any thought? Like, I'm one of the two people you want to read today, and you dismiss my entire early play as "not much of anything" because I wasn't wallposting.

@BB: explain 109? It seems to me "sigh" is becoming the next "eyeroll" type reaction for scum to embrace.

Under most potential conditions, 111 makes me think lucky is town.

I'm not currently voting because accidental quickhammers actually seem quite easy to happen, and I don't think treating the votes as a 3 separate LyLo's is the best thing to do. I should probably commit a full post to this rather than tagging it onto the end here, though.

[Lucky2u]

because I wasn't wallposting.

for what it's worth, I like it when people don't wall post.

[serrapaladin]

I would propose we open the question of whom to lynch in each group to all of us, deciding by majority in each case if possible, runoff if not.

As is, we have the following issues with our voting system:

- members of the all-town group can't actually vote for scum today

- while randomly lynching in a 3p LyLo has a 1/3 town EV, in reality only takes 1 of the 2 town to vote wrongly for scum to win, giving a real EV somewhere closer to 1/4

- scum interactions will be much harder to gauge, since some people will not necessarily focus on all groups. leading on from that, mislynches in a group could easily be used D2 by out-of-group scum to push a mislynch of someone in the group.

I don't think us talking about all groups really compensates for the concrete opinions that should underpin voting.

[Zebulin]

Assuming BBMolla is town, and knowing I'm town, then there is a 2/3rds chance you are scum (1/3rd chance we're the townbloc). The chance of you being scum in my head is actually a lot lower, because there's a 40something% chance we're the townbloc (Pretty sure the townbloc isn't Wisdom) and BBMolla isn't confirmed town. The numbers aren't 100% accurate, they're mostly to show what I'm thinking in terms of how scummy everyone is.

This is a whole lot of non committal nonsense.

BBmolla asked me to explain my reasoning, so I explained my reasoning. My reasoning is terrible, but that's what you get on page 5. I didn't edit anything in that post to show my true train of thought, so if it seems rambling I apologize. I'm not 100% sure on anything because I CAN'T be 100% sure; there's always a chance I'm wrong.

I would propose we open the question of whom to lynch in each group to all of us, deciding by majority in each case if possible, runoff if not.

As is, we have the following issues with our voting system:

- members of the all-town group can't actually vote for scum today

- while randomly lynching in a 3p LyLo has a 1/3 town EV, in reality only takes 1 of the 2 town to vote wrongly for scum to win, giving a real EV somewhere closer to 1/4

- scum interactions will be much harder to gauge, since some people will not necessarily focus on all groups. leading on from that, mislynches in a group could easily be used D2 by out-of-group scum to push a mislynch of someone in the group.

I don't think us talking about all groups really compensates for the concrete opinions that should underpin voting.

I ran the numbers on this idea, and assuming random voting it has a much higher chance of getting scum lynched. I'm in favor of it.

because I wasn't wallposting.

for what it's worth, I like it when people don't wall post.

Why don't you like wall posts?

Also, I think someone had a question directed at me. What was it?

[Not_Mafia]

Witness Protection has been prodded. They must respond in thread within 24 hours or be replaced.

[goodmorning]

Scrip wasn't really using his frustration in a way that might give him an advantage, so I quite like him for town. I don't really know what you mean by him "jumping around"?

I mean that his self-defence is all over the place.

I don't have a full-blown townread on zeb, but I have no doubt that town!zebulin could absolutely come up with an interpretation of BB's meta and apply it as in 110, be it correct or not. I somewhat liked that his early play felt somewhat loose. That being said. the only questions he's asked that are actually relevant to his actions and understanding of the game are why people are voting for him, which could well be the scummy flavour of self-preservation. There were some details in PN's posts that pinged more than anything by zeb though - mentioning how much time we have on the DL for one, and the unrequested list of whom to lynch, going very much along the path of least resistance. I don't buy that people can read that slot from the level of seriousness.

...so PN providing his reads pinged you? Or is it just that they were close to current sentiment?

[Zebulin]

Before I forget: There are things I want to post if I get lynched before I die (which is probably going to happen), but saying them now helps scum way more than town. When it comes time to hammer all 3 groups, give me a chance to post before you do so. Thank you!

Hopkirk, you need to post way more. You seem to be posting

just

enough to not get prodded.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

wave of apathy
devoured my baby diapers
what should i do guys

[Perpetual Nonsense]

[Perpetual Nonsense]

We are so toast at this rate. I have to pump Us up! UGH

Gotta get pumped, gotta get pumped BERTIE and GAIDEN

[Lucky2u]

^ no idea what is going in these last three posts...

[Lucky2u]

Before I forget: There are things I want to post if I get lynched before I die (which is probably going to happen),

but saying them now helps scum way more than town.

When it comes time to hammer all 3 groups, give me a chance to post before you do so. Thank you!

Hopkirk, you need to post way more. You seem to be posting

just

enough to not get prodded.

there are no power roles in this game so I am thoroughly confused what info you could have from a town persepective that helps scum more than town. nonetheless, I don't think we intended to hammer without atleast last second reads from dying town.

[Hopkirk]

@Zeb: Having trouble getting into the game due to lack of anything really catching my interest and being as confident as a can that i'm voting scum.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

Yeah, somehow We managed to become indifferent about the gamestate, and it's time to dig Ourselves out.

Why are you so confident that Lucky2u is scum? Do you have more questions to ask him?

[Perpetual Nonsense]

As in, it shouldn't be who between GM or Lucky2u is playing better or being more effective as either alignment for you, but rather who is more likely to be scum.

hmm... so far I want to vote both my group mates...

And yet you don't vote either of us? Sounds pretty off.

VOTE: Lucky

For example, pushing Lucky to vote when he is indecisive.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

^how was Lucky's post scummy, exactly?

And there's the fact that there is no mention/interaction to be seen between you and goodmorning since your Page 1 RVS vote.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

UNVOTE:

Reading Molla's ISO. There isn't much to decipher at the moment.

I'm scum reading Perpetual Nonsense mainly

because I think BBMolla is town

and that makes a 67% chance Perpetual Nonsense is scum.

Mostly it's because of my ISO read on BBMolla. Normally I'm suspicious of a guy who has so few words per post, but he posts very little in both his town and scum games. The difference I saw is that Town-BBMolla asks a lot of questions and is active scumhunting even on page 1, and Scum-BBMolla tends to say random fluff unrelated to the game and try to stay out of the limelight. BBMolla has been active scumhunting this game and hasn't made a single out-of-game post so far, so I feel he's town. The only thing I don't like from him was the "Zubullu" comment. That hurt.

These two posts aren't inclusive to me IMHO. BBMolla hasn't posted much. Period. Neither have I, granted. For Molla, it's certainly not alignment indicative. Just don't like this read because it's based on if Molla "is fluffing or not," considering the scarcity of his posts you noticed in past games AND this game. And the Zubullu comment was totally null and a typo obviously.

I can understand scumreading Us because Molla is townier just on the basis of being more active and engaged than Us, but your read on Us is a result of a "townread" on Molla. Anyways, We will get to thebottom of this

[Zebulin]

The problem for me is that I'm

not

scumreading you or BBMolla, and it's very frustrating. Either we're the townbloc, which is unlikely and shouldn't be discussed at this point in the game, or one of you two is a master scumplayer, which is terrible for town in general and means I'll probably die D1 (I'm not exactly the towniest-looking player in any of my games, and I was being hammered until 5 minutes ago). I'm trying to get Courage to post more, since it seems only Wisdom is posting real walls at all, but when scum is in a townread and a leaning-townread and I'm widely being scumread I'm not sure what I can say to not die.

At this point I'd say Hopkirk, Witness and Perpetual are the scum, but Witness is my only real scumread. Hopkirk is leaning-scum and Perpetual is leaning-town, but not as town as BBMolla. ( I'm starting to suspect BBMolla simply because my main townreads my last 2 games have been scum in lylo. :/ )

P-Edit: Keep in mind these are page 5 reads. There's not going to be that much behind them compared to page 20+ reads.

[Lucky2u]

@Zeb: Having trouble getting into the game due to lack of anything really catching my interest and being as confident as a can that i'm voting scum.

Even if nothing is catching your interest, you could ask some questions. It's probably a lock that it will be between you and me in our block, so how about we turn our attentions to the other blocks and input there.