Newbie #358 - Big Trouble in Little Rome (Game Over!)

[mnowax]

yeppers it it.

[Romanus]

Why is Doom still alive?

[mnowax]

surprise surprise.

[mnowax]

ggranted not everyone has checked in yet.

[Romanus]

yeah, but wit you pretty much stating when you were going to vote for him, he really should have went down, unless one of you is scum.

[Mr. Flay]

First (Substantive) Vote Count of Day Two:

Dr. Doom - 1 (mnowax)

Not voting - 4 (Scarecrow, Dr. Doom, vollkan, Jack)

With five alive, just three votes will lynch.

[Dr. Doom]

As long as there was no spotlight on him, it would make zero sense for Doomscum to go after him, and thus bring attention to my partner - and maybe even back on my self, as bussing/distancing is a widely recognized tactic. Why wake sleeping dogs?

Isn't that pretty much a WIFOM? You are basically saying: "Why would I do this if I was scum with Dio?"

I dunno - does this qualifies? Of course, its a weak argument, but given that Doomscum would not act completely random, Doomscums actions can be predicted (or at least one can try to do it). Of course, it's a shaky argument, and can not be the sole thing that I base my defense on - I said that in response to the theory that I and Dio/mnowax are scum (which I can't find at the moment - was that theory/accusation even brought up?).

Jack hasn't checked in yet?

Who, I'm dieing here.


1) both mnowax and I are scum, and all this is just to cause a huge smokescreen and a mislynch. This would mean that vollkan, Jack and Romanus are town - At least one of you knows this isn't true, and I do too.
This also would require some substantial planning during the night, but remember that Dio was replaced early morning Day Two - Doomscum would have had no chance talking to mnowax, so that we play along this well is highly unlikely (imho).

2) I am Scum, with somebody else than mnowax. I don't have the time to go through all the possibilities (now), but I'm confident that I can defend against all of them, although - if I try to look at the game from an outside perspective - vollkan jumps to my mind as a possible scumbuddy. I will say something about that later - I'm sure there is a decent defense against this.

3) mnowax is scum with someone else. I dunno, I don't think that this is true, but it is possible. It's crass how he risks the game, but if it was a gambit, it might have paid out - see point 4.

4) mnowax and I are town, and Jack is scum with either vollakn or Romanus. Because Jack has not yet checked in, I'm still alive (actually, all townies are), and this game has not yet ended.

I'm not sure about all the possibilities - except the first one, obv. I'll do a reread later, although I suspect that the game has ended until then. I'm sorry that I don't have more time (right now), or I would do the reread/analysis right now.

Maybe unvote, mnowax? As far as I can see, Information has been gathered, and this is a very risky ploy. Extremely risky - it could cost us the friggin' game (if you are town, that is).

You are acting as if you aren't about to die and the town losing. he just put a vote on you and what you have to say is directed at me.

Huh? Might I remind you of your own words:

The last game I was with mnowax in and he pulled the trigger pretty quick in voting in a Lylo. It backfired on him there. Not sure if him doing this makes him townie or if he wants me to believe he is town by pulling the same thing again.

Very interesting there mnowax.

I'd like to hear some reasoning from you.

I do understand I can't stop you from voting.

and

All I can say mnowax is that I hope you are right.

I believe he is scum as well, maybe not as adamantly as you do, and not really ready to act on it, but you are pretty much making this decision for us all, just like you did before, and it cost you the game. If he winds up not being lynched rather quickly then we will have a very interesting situation, one you are well aware of.

These were the posts (and your first one in this game) that made me suspicious of you - it's like you were not even afraid of losing (I suppose it's because you think I'm scum - well, if mnowax is scum, I don't have much to fear, either).

@vollkan: More input, please!

@Romanus posts #461 and #469: mnowax replaces Dio, are you aware of that?

[vollkan]

1) both mnowax and I are scum, and all this is just to cause a huge smokescreen and a mislynch. This would mean that vollkan, Jack and Romanus are town - At least one of you knows this isn't true, and I do too.
This also would require some substantial planning during the night, but remember that Dio was replaced early morning Day Two - Doomscum would have had no chance talking to mnowax, so that we play along this well is highly unlikely (imho).

I don't think it is as unlikely as you suggest, though I don't mean that it is likely; just that I don't think it should be dismissed outright. I mean, mnowax did telegraph his intention to vote you which would give you time to prepare how to deal with it. I can't imagine it being too difficult for you to play along.

3) mnowax is scum with someone else. I dunno, I don't think that this is true, but it is possible. It's crass how he risks the game, but if it was a gambit, it might have paid out - see point 4.

4) mnowax and I are town, and Jack is scum with either vollakn or Romanus. Because Jack has not yet checked in, I'm still alive (actually, all townies are), and this game has not yet ended.

What does your point 4 have to do with the "gambit" "paying out"?

[Jack]

Looks like one of mnowax and dr.doom are scum, but we knew that already. I'd have to reread to figure out which, though I'm more inclined to think it's dr.doom.

[vollkan]

You really don't make much of a contribution.

Two questions:
Why do you think it is more likely to be Doom?
What happened to your case against me?

[Jack]

I said this earlier. Dr. Dooms defense of you which made it obvious that he hadn't paid attention to my case against you. The only reason for him not to pay attention is if he knows your alignment.

My case against you goes back to your fabricated arguments of day 1.

[Jack]

In fact

Vote:Dr. Doom

[vollkan]

Agreed. I feel like a win.

Vote: Dr Doom

[vollkan]

Oops. I forgot the full stop in Dr. Doom.

Let me try that again

Vote: Dr. Doom

.

[Mr. Flay]

Shots ring out in the courtyard, and very soon it's all over. Before mnowax and Dr. Doom can even finish arguing with each other, they are gunned down, with the shocked Romanus spluttering his last words into the dust.

• Tendril
  Dr. Doom,
  Townie
  , was lynched Day Two.
  
• yakult
  Scarecrow
  Romanus,
  Townie
  , was killed in the endgame.
  
• Dio
  mnowax,
  Townie
  , was killed in the endgame.
  
• Battle Mage,
  Townie
  , was lynched Day One.
  
• ElKabong
  kabenon007
  TrustGossip,
  Townie
  , was killed Night One.
  
• vollkan,
  Mafia
  , won!
  
• Jack,
  Mafia
  , won!

No power roles, so all night actions are already known. What do you all think of the game? This kept a fairly steady pace overall, though the deadline was looming for today. What really harmed the town was the feud between Townies, of course, so if someone (especially scum) want to comment on that...

[Jack]

I was quite surprised that people were willing to go for a dr. doom lynch.

And you guys should have definitely lynched vollkan...

*high fives vollkan*

[Mr. Flay]

For one thing, looking at my posting graph I can guess that replacements were an issue (even before mnowax came in and changed the pace of things considerably).

[Mr. Flay]

Actually, I concur with Jack. This is one of those situations where you had scum in your sights (vollkan had three votes when the deadline started), and let yourself be distracted by Battle Mage's playstyle. Jack was all set to bus his partner, even, but he didn't even have to start the bandwagon's shift...

Just because someone is not an optimal player, does not make them scum.

[mnowax]

wow damn i was afraid of that.

One hour i setp out and the two scum hop on. O well. GG scum, you got us this time....

Sorry roman and Doom.

[TrustGossip]

Vollkan was pretty great. And Jack's bussing strategy really messed up my scumdar. Good game scum.

[Dr. Doom]

Arrrg, mnowax, you should have unvoted after every one except Jack commented. Ah, well...

Romanus, you really pinged high on my radar, although (if I had have the time) a reread might have given me some insight. Should it depress me that I lost both my newbie games as town so far?

Congrats to the scum, I would have not suspected vollkan, although I got an eye on Jack, especially after I survived the first few hours of the vote.

Btw, isn't it really dangerous to just place a vote and hope your target is a scummer? I mean, its a 50/50 of loosing outright, and the information gain is not as good as it seems. This seems very risky to me...

What has bitten me in this and in my last newbie was that Day One was lost due to a Deadline: In my first newbie, there was Deadline, and really close to its drop, I made a Gamechanging post (that even got the scumpair right!) and enough people got swayed by it, so if the Deadline had dropped, a scummer would have been lynched.
But since Discussion picked up, the Deadline was raised, and another townie misvoted and killed of teh other Bandwagon of the Day (a townie). The Game was lost due to the Cop acting Uber-suspicious, and a mis/Speedlynch Day Two.

In this game, its teh other way round: A lifting of the Deadline would have allowed me to discuss more, and maybe get another one lynched (Jack, for example), as I really felt bad with the BM lynch at that moment, but I felt that it was too near to deadline to change anything and that I would have drawn too much Flak for it.
So, teh Deadline reached what was not its purpose: it downed discussion/activity.

[Mr. Flay]

Btw, isn't it really dangerous to just place a vote and hope your target is a scummer? I mean, its a 50/50 of loosing outright, and the information gain is not as good as it seems. This seems very risky to me...

It

is

risky. On the other hand, you have to act at some point; too many people let LYLO become paralysis, which is definitely bad for the game... in this case, I would have rather that mnowax laid a heavy FOS than an early vote, hoping to catch in the middle of the quicklynch. I have to hand it to vollkan and Jack though, the back-and-forth to establish that they were both in thread at the same time was brilliantly executed.

What has bitten me in this and in my last newbie was that Day One was lost due to a Deadline: In my first newbie, there was Deadline, and really close to its drop, I made a Gamechanging post (that even got the scumpair right!) and enough people got swayed by it, so if the Deadline had dropped, a scummer would have been lynched.
But since Discussion picked up, the Deadline was raised, and another townie misvoted and killed of teh other Bandwagon of the Day (a townie). The Game was lost due to the Cop acting Uber-suspicious, and a mis/Speedlynch Day Two.

In this game, its teh other way round: A lifting of the Deadline would have allowed me to discuss more, and maybe get another one lynched (Jack, for example), as I really felt bad with the BM lynch at that moment, but I felt that it was too near to deadline to change anything and that I would have drawn too much Flak for it.
So, teh Deadline reached what was not its purpose: it downed discussion/activity.

Was your first newbie modded by me, too? I'm trying to remember (and don't want my deadline policies to get in the way of my players)... in any case,

never

let a deadline dissuade you from mentioning something. If you're pro-town, there's a fair chance you'll die overnight (especially in a game this size), and then your comment is lost forever. There's an ongoing game that I can't mention right now that has done some very interesting things at deadline, that have helped make D2 much more complex and informative.

[Jack]

This game was quite long for a newbie.

[vollkan]

Good game all. *returns Jack's high-five*

I thought I was about to be lynched for certain on Day 1 since there was no suspicion at anybody else; BM really saved me.

It was very frustrating at the end knowing that we would win as soon as Jack arrived, but being unable to do anything.

[Romanus]

I would have never guessed about volkan, but I smelled Jack, but backed down off of him. Oh, well.

It was fun and I'm glad I could come in and finish the game.