Open 585: Jungle Republic (ended)

[Ginko]

Also, why's Lyserg so low?

-Cheetory6

[acryon]

Also interested to see what Ginko makes of it. It's shocking to me that people haven't commented on it directly, as it's pretty hot.

It's a rather dense case. I think I have somewhere around like an entire page of point form notes that I need to sift through for it? q.q

Right, which is why it's even more curious that people would avoid it.

@Acryon

, weh. Young and prawn are your #3 and #4 slots for town? Why? Young's only made a naked vote and then disappeared and you literally just said this about prawn:

This is a little weird because I feel like I was the primary person pushing and outing Lal.

If he's weird, why is he so far up your list?
'Splain that shit pls.

I already indicated that there was a large gap between 1 and 2 and the rest. Prawn just doesn't feel scummy to me. Same with YYR. What little they've brought forth doesn't ping me. Just because someone reads something wrong, it doesn't mean they're scum. I still think it's weird, but that doesn't mean I think he is scum.

Also, I just don't like the difference in pushing for Lal/Ari while voting for them and not because of you switching or anything like that. Your questioning/push of Aristophanes was weak, while your push/questioning for Lal is much stronger.

I've said this already, but my play is different based on the circumstance. Ari had multiple other people pushing, so I didn't need to necessarily add my noise, because others were saying it already. Lal needed someone to push her on her stuff, so I stepped in and did that.

I thought this was very clear. Her lack of experience obviously made me question my scum-read on her slightly, so I asked farside (someone who I think is town) what it did to her read of Lal.
Getting a second opinion from someone who I think is very likely town helps me sort of my read. This seems like pretty standard play, so it's odd to me that this strikes you as off.

I think your question stood out to me because it looked like you were trying to softpush farside into thinking Lal is town, which just seemed really strange. Makes a little more sense now with your townread on farside.

Oh, not at all. I think Lal is almost definitely scum. Hence why my vote hasn't moved.

[acryon]

Also, why's Lyserg so low?

-Cheetory6

Because he's continuing to try to catch people on scum-slips. So either he is playing a bad town-game, or he is scum trying to catch people using cheap tactics. I'm not sure of which yet, but he certainly doesn't get town-points from me for the moment. To be clear, Ari and Lal are the only people I have reasonable confidence in being scum. The others, Lyserg included, are simply people who I could very plausibly see as being scum.

[farside22]

I noted the questions asked about wash and acryon.
I'm busy till tomorrow. I will ISO them and explain a bit better my reads

[Honey bee]

Vote count 1.08

Lalendra (5):

acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR, Lyserg-Zeroz

Aristophanes (4):

West9, Metalcyanide, farside22, Lalendra

acryon (1):

VysePresident

West9 (1):

Ginko

Metalcyanide (1):

prawneater

Not voting:
With 12 alive It takes 7 to lynch. Day ends in: (expired on 2015-01-22 22:14:00)

*prodding YYR*

[acryon]

Hey YYR, where are you?!

[Lalendra]

Your tone wasn't even clearly serious there, so it comes across as feeling especially sleezy to me. It seems to me like he only talked about it later because you set him up to do so.
^Everyone should make an effort to read this part of the game because I'm pretty sure West is setting Ari up here.

I hadn’t really noticed this disparity in West’s argument before, thank you for pointing it out. I’m not sure if it was West setting Ari up, or Ari stumbling/backpedaling – it still reads more to me as the latter, but it’s possible that your interpretation is spot-on.

He becomes very focused on asking Lalendra questions and making points as to why she's scummy, whereas he was kind of more disinterested in pushing for Aristophanes or asking him questions. I feel like there's a very distinct difference in playstyle being taken here and it doesn't even make much sense from a perspective of "I think that Aristophanes is less scummy than Lalendra", because his reasoning when he unvotes is that he wants to avoid a quickhammer.

I am still on the fence about Acryon. His defensiveness of Ari seemed inherently scummy, due to my susipicions of Ari; however, his playstyle seems overall towny. He asks probing questions, doesn’t really seem like he’s married to any scumreads in particular, and is willing to take all factors into consideration. He seemed fairly convinced I was scum after my Ari vote, for example, but then in 238 and 241, he was willing to consider that my comments might be more newbish than scummy. So, despite the fact that he has a pretty solid scumread on me, I am still inclined to believe that he is town.

Since I also found something of the same vibe from a townMetal game (think I linked the game on my previous post) I'm of the opinion that it's not an alignment indicative thing.

I agree, I think this is just his playstyle regardless. He is paranoid as hell in mafia, largely because he frequently says things which are misinterpreted and then he tends to confuse the issue more when he tries to clarify, thereby drawing more suspicion. I tend to have a hard time dissecting his game, since we have only played two games together, and in the first I knew he was town and in the second I was sure he was scum and he wasn’t; however, I still get a town-vibe from him this time.

Random thought: I dont think has Ari talked about why he choose Metal as his reaction test vote. That'd be cool.

Yes it would.

Metal's read of Ari's towngame is weird.

Weird in what way?

Lal post here looks to be just attacking those without taking things said prior
Not sure if that is typical. Emotion is emotion but it was a quick reaction based on other comments I made prior.

Not really emotion, just something that I wanted to get out there in the moment while it was fresh in my head. It was sort of an “ah ha!” moment.

I absolutely hate this post. She is not voting for her strongest scum read.
The reason being was in her first post and nothing has changed. I still don't see why what Orc did was scummy and she has yet to really explain it well at all.

That was me being an idiot and forgetting to remove the top half of the earlier post, which I had copied and was using for reference as Lyserg had asked me to update my scum reads from that post. The first four paragraphs are crap. (Ninja’d by Lyserg – thank you for explaining my stupidity.)

Re: Ginko, West9, VysePresident, farside22 - their recent posts feel very town. Maybe I'm too easily swayed by textwalls though.

What about them feels town? Why are textwalls alignment-indicative?

Here begins my analysis of Ari, in response to Lyserg's question. Was going to post as a spoiler but apparently I can't figure out how.

@Lalendra: You initially mentioned you thought Ari was being typical Ari and that general silliness was mostly just his meta. Later you said West's case helped in swaying you. Besides the Metal-vote: Do you just generally agree with West? Can you walk me through the evolution of your read (like, where did "typical silly Ari" go, for example)?

In the beginning, I felt like it was typical silly Ari. At post 38, his “in theory we could both be evil” comment did seem off to me. I don’t know why that would be the defense you’d want to use in this situation, it doesn’t seem like an exceptionally good one. Basically saying “He’s convinced I’m scum, and I’m not going to debate that because it’s true, but he could also be a different kind of scum!” Post 53 was flippant, in typical Ari fashion, but also played off his earlier slips as him playing around too much. This is possible, and not too out of character, but a weak defense. In 54 he chides Orci for voting for him with no explanation, then the naked metal vote comes out of nowhere. In 56 he doesn’t explain why a lack of conversation is anti-town, and he hadn’t really posted anything serious or heavy except for 53, so sort of the pot calling the kettle black there.

Also, how can I prove I'm town without a lynch.

That, right there, bugs me a lot. Lynching someone does not prove you are town, it proves that you successfully bandwagoned, OR got people to follow your line of reasoning (true or deceptive) OR that you got lucky OR that you are town. “See, I said he was scum and he got lynched and he’s scum therefore I am town!” can certainly be true, but is not necessarily true, and is also far from the only way to “prove” that you are town. It just seems like a weird line to draw in the sand this early in the game. He also calls out Orci for “pushing a sort of ‘I’m right, so talk away, but I know I’m right anyway’ mentality in his wordings, and having somewhat loaded questions,” as if this is inherently scummy behavior; to me, it’s not alignment-indicative, and Ari is doing the same.

Other notes: I just remembered that I have a thing on my internet that automatically translates "figuratively" to "figuratively". So if I sound like a dummy, it may be because I'm misreading a post. Sorry about that!

I must be an idiot because I STILL can’t figure out wtf this means.

I wanted to do something though, so I voted Metal to see what would happen.

Literally just picked Metal out of a hat? Why not Orci, who was his top scumread up until that point, or West, with whom he had some back-and-forth and at least a little suspicion?

She switched so quickly to a scum read on me and her best argument thus far was "West made a good point, I just didn't see it before" which just sounds off to me. I feel like she was just waiting for a good moment to pounce, and I gave it to her.

Aristophanes – Thank you for birthday wishes! Typical Ari, from what I’ve seen; some general silliness, but that's not out of alignment with his meta, from what I've seen. I don't know if I'm 100% convinced he's scum, and at any rate I'm not quite convinced enough to fling a vote there. I'd hate to see a D1 no-lynch, but I'd hate a mislynch too.

This is definitely not me saying that I think you’re town. “Not 100% convinced he’s scum” is not exactly a hands-down townread.

Ari - random Metal vote with no reasoning (unless it was earlier and I missed it), conveniently after West pointed out the likelihood of an Ari/Metal scumteam? If you're scum, that seems like a less than well thought out attempt at scum-distancing, yet I can't ignore it, particularly in conjunction with West's points, which ring true for me now that I see it all in one place.

VOTE: Aristophanes

Ari is focusing on the idea that I flipped town-to-scum, as a result of one action on his part; he ignores the fact that I hadn’t given him a townread to begin with, and that I had specific reasons to be suspicious of his naked vote, particularly due to the fact that it was immediately preceded by West surmising that Metal was Ari’s scummate.

[YYR]

I agree. Not for the same reasons, but I agree. All these "waiting until later" and reactions tests are hindering any kind of coherent conversation here, though

^What were your reasons to agree?

I'll answer this point at least. I agree on the baiting Ari, although Orc's argument is pretty semantic-y for my tastes. At the very early of the game, Ginko's questioning of Aristophanes felt like a way to bait him into answering in a certain way that he knew would make him look bad. Aristophanes is lynch bait quite frankly, and they know this. The fact that they left with a townish read on him is odd to me considering Cheetory's inability to read him correctly ever (who has made most of the contributions to the game so far as far as I can tell). Also, we're 3 days left until deadline and he's still pushing this weak case on West which no one is buying. He has yet to really take a stance on Ari or Lal. He's asking things to both, but I'm not seeing him reach any conclusions out of them or what the purposes of the questions are. I'm seeing a lot of vague or on the fence sitting positions on Ginko's slot, and my confirmation bias is telling me it's because the slot is scum. I wasn't around enough in this cycle to push them, but it's where I'm likely to start tomorrow.

Lal lynch is still fine. This day feels pretty much done regardless and just feels like some of the 1-man wagons to pick a side. Meh. Reading back what I missed more carefully since I skimmed.

[Lalendra]

Lal's read list is completely different wording then her first read list and has quotes she never used before.
Not sure what happened there.

I was just responding to a request I received to provide an updated read list on the people I thought were scum in my first post. Explain how my views had changed as a result of the goings-on between my first post and this one.

[YYR]

Acryon, would you say that you make an effort to talk in a non-offensive manner? Also, someone has brought it up already, but I severely question my placement on that readlist, and likewise, is Lyserg's looking for scumslips the only reason you have him so low? Nothing in your ISO would suggest to me that Lyserg would be so low. I don't know if I find the list odd because it's so radically different from my own reads or if the list just seems thrown together at random.

Lyserg, what are your thoughts on West? The way you're engaging with him strikes me in a particular way that I don't know how to explain.

[West9]

If you want to respond to me here, go ahead, but I'm probably going to just carry my opinion on this forward and see what I think about the rest of your play from here. I'd rather see you focus on other things so I can sort more of your play as a whole and I feel like we're only going to talk in circles here and nobody's going to prove anything to anyone else in the game.

Yeah, I figured we'd end up here (hence the spoilers). We can fight about this when the game's over.

So basically Ari's wagon still sucks

Why does the Ari wagon suck?

I don't like that both Metal and Lalendra are on it.

@West:

So basically Ari's wagon still sucks but I don't like the Lalendra one enough to put it at L-1

Is there something in particular you don't like about the Lal wagon (alternatively: Something in particular you like about Lal that gives her townpoints)?

The big thing that I don't like about the Lal wagon is that Ari is on it, but I can look past that. Just felt like my last post would've been a weird and not-ideal time to put her at L-1. I'm not opposed to a Lalendra lynch (though I think I'd still prefer an Ari one) so I'll throw a vote down in a day or so.

Your tone wasn't even clearly serious there, so it comes across as feeling especially sleezy to me. It seems to me like he only talked about it later because you set him up to do so.
^Everyone should make an effort to read this part of the game because I'm pretty sure West is setting Ari up here.

I hadn’t really noticed this disparity in West’s argument before, thank you for pointing it out. I’m not sure if it was West setting Ari up, or Ari stumbling/backpedaling – it still reads more to me as the latter, but it’s possible that your interpretation is spot-on.

Jesus christ, this flipflopping. Did Ginko's post really make you go from "West's points are really clear and Ari is my main scumread because of them" to "West is probably setting Ari up" that fast?

@Lalendra: You initially mentioned you thought Ari was being typical Ari and that general silliness was mostly just his meta. Later you said West's case helped in swaying you. Besides the Metal-vote: Do you just generally agree with West? Can you walk me through the evolution of your read (like, where did "typical silly Ari" go, for example)?

In the beginning, I felt like it was typical silly Ari. At post 38, his “in theory we could both be evil” comment did seem off to me. I don’t know why that would be the defense you’d want to use in this situation, it doesn’t seem like an exceptionally good one. Basically saying “He’s convinced I’m scum, and I’m not going to debate that because it’s true, but he could also be a different kind of scum!” Post 53 was flippant, in typical Ari fashion, but also played off his earlier slips as him playing around too much. This is possible, and not too out of character, but a weak defense. In 54 he chides Orci for voting for him with no explanation, then the naked metal vote comes out of nowhere. In 56 he doesn’t explain why a lack of conversation is anti-town, and he hadn’t really posted anything serious or heavy except for 53, so sort of the pot calling the kettle black there.

Also, how can I prove I'm town without a lynch.

That, right there, bugs me a lot. Lynching someone does not prove you are town, it proves that you successfully bandwagoned, OR got people to follow your line of reasoning (true or deceptive) OR that you got lucky OR that you are town. “See, I said he was scum and he got lynched and he’s scum therefore I am town!” can certainly be true, but is not necessarily true, and is also far from the only way to “prove” that you are town. It just seems like a weird line to draw in the sand this early in the game. He also calls out Orci for “pushing a sort of ‘I’m right, so talk away, but I know I’m right anyway’ mentality in his wordings, and having somewhat loaded questions,” as if this is inherently scummy behavior; to me, it’s not alignment-indicative, and Ari is doing the same.

For someone who changed their mind about Ari so fast based on my argument, this reasoning contains very little of my argument.

[Metalcyanide]

Also, what did you mean Ari only got one reaction? West, Orci and I reacted too. Why do you think Lalendra was "defending you" with her reaction to Ari's vote? She even sort of implied that Ari might've been doing a scum-distancing-vote, you two scum buddies 0o0? Also, I'm not sure I get the newbtown read, when I was going through your Lal-read I just really didn't see it concluding with that (I mean, you say things like she's using West reasons to vote, or that she is "oddly defending you"...).

So I think these are the questions I owe you Lyserg. I swear I've gone to answer these like 10 times and only to get distracted but anyways:
Basically after Ari made the Metal vote the post between that and his next post were Lal's vote on him and people questioning and talking about Lal's vote on Ari. Looking back it only really looks like Orc made a mention of Ari's vote post 176.

they figured out Ari and I are scum buddies , no but seriously if Ari was going for a reaction vote his vote could really only be on me since I was the latest person to vote for him and his reasoning was I jumped on a bandwagon.

This should answer Farsides question from post 295
My noobtown read on Lal comes from playing with her while she has been in both roles. When she was mafia she tried to stay focused on just certain people and follow a trend and when she was town she was kind of all over the place. She has seemed to be all over the place here thus explaining my noobtown vote.

[Metalcyanide]

@orcinus/acryon/metalcyanide would you mind posting your town/scum lists?

Scum lean:
Aristophanes
acryon / orcinus_theoriginal
West9

Null:
Lalendra
farside22
Ginko
prawneater
VysePresident

Town:
Lyserg-Zeroz
Metalcyanide

Unknown:
YYR

[farside22]

Lal's read list is completely different wording then her first read list and has quotes she never used before.
Not sure what happened there.

I was just responding to a request I received to provide an updated read list on the people I thought were scum in my first post. Explain how my views had changed as a result of the goings-on between my first post and this one.

I'm going to assume then you quick scum read based on false analysts on me was changed back to town?

@orcinus/acryon/metalcyanide would you mind posting your town/scum lists?

Scum lean:
Aristophanes
acryon / orcinus_theoriginal
West9

Null:
Lalendra
farside22
Ginko
prawneater
VysePresident

Town:
Lyserg-Zeroz
Metalcyanide

Unknown:
YYR

That is a lot of null reads.

[acryon]

Acryon, would you say that you make an effort to talk in a non-offensive manner?

Yes. I tend to play something of a devil's advocate role as town, and with that tends to come a (probably too) peaceable approach.

Also, someone has brought it up already, but I severely question my placement on that readlist, and likewise, is Lyserg's looking for scumslips the only reason you have him so low? Nothing in your ISO would suggest to me that Lyserg would be so low. I don't know if I find the list odd because it's so radically different from my own reads or if the list just seems thrown together at random.

It's funny that you mention it being thrown together at random, because I've had it put together for a couple days on a spreadsheet (obviously you have no way to know whether this is true or not, but I just thought it was funny that you would say that). My list is ranked in terms of

likelihood

of being scum at this point. Why would I think someone with almost no content is scummier than someone that could be trying to point out faux-scum-slips? I don't see that high of likelihood of you being scum right now. That may change when you post more. And it's not even that I think Lyserg is scum at the moment. I just think their is a greater likelihood of him flipping scum than the others above him on the list.

[Lalendra]

@West - I admitted he has a point, didn't say it changed my opinion about ari, which is why my vote is still there. I said that clearly in my post. Also the reason my reasoning for the Ari vote contains little of your argument is because I was given so much crap for agreeing with you and disliking the naked vote that I felt I should put together more solid points instead of going "yeah, what west said."

[Ginko]

@Metal

, didn't you say Lalendra and Acryon were leaning town?

We can fight about this when the game's over.

My place or your's?

The fact that they left with a townish read on him is odd to me considering Cheetory's inability to read him correctly ever (who has made most of the contributions to the game so far as far as I can tell). Also, we're 3 days left until deadline and he's still pushing this weak case on West which no one is buying. He has yet to really take a stance on Ari or Lal.

i) "Cheetory is not allowed to have a read on Aristophanes, not even a slight one because he's been wrong about him two times recently-"
You're dumb. Stop being dumb. I'm not claiming to have a strong read on Ari, I've just said that I don't think that he's scum and don't want him to be lynched over other people.
ii) I haven't taken a stance on Aristophanes? Uh? You literally just acknowledged that I had a stance on him in this post? lol..

iii) I've said I'll look at Lalendra today and I honestly hadn't realized the deadline was that close so I'll make it a promise if it'll make you happy. Why does the fact that there's only three days left make you think the game is set in stone? It's the same length of deadline as it was back on D2?

What about the Lalendra wagon do you like? Give me specific points.
Also, I'd like your thoughts on West pls and ty.

wash

*throws rice in the fire*

I have class now so someone tell me if there's something in here that I'm missing. Going to compare all of the stuff that people have said about her with her actual play tonight.

@LALENDRA WAGON ANALYSIS:

i) Acryon's reasoning in his votepost:
-when she gives her read on acryon it only focuses on the stuff that he said during RVS
-that her read on Aristophanes escalated from her being slightly wary of him to something worth voting for just from him making a naked vote
-her putting Ari close to lynching range when she'd made a big deal out of Lyserg doing the same thing to a lesser degree before
-changing from Ari to Lalendra because he doesn't want a quickhammer
ii) Aristophanes's reasoning in his votepost:
-agrees with the escalating read on him based on the naked vote as being scummy
-that it feels opportunistic that Lalendra sheeped West's reasoning for voting him later
-that Lal was possibly third party hunting
-that West/Metal/Lal scumteam is likely
iii) orcinus's reasoning just before his votepost:
-that she's fencesitty
iv) farside's reasoning [in a non-vote post]:
-stating concern for mislynch
-using vague words when discussing a read on Aristophanes and then voting him for a naked vote
-her being against meta discussion
-flipping her read on farside based on her suspecting her
v) Lyserg's reasoning in his votepost:
[I could be totally wrong on some of these so lemme know if I'm wrong]
-a lack of questioning of things in this game vs her town game
-some of her questioning seems like posturing to try and either dismantle suspicion on her and to push a scumread on someone
-some of her points seem like too much of a stretch
-an opportunistic Ari vote

-Cheetory6

[Honey bee]

*Prodding Aristophanes*

[prawneater]

@orcinus/acryon/metalcyanide would you mind posting your town/scum lists?

Scum lean:
Aristophanes
acryon / orcinus_theoriginal
West9

Null:
Lalendra
farside22
Ginko
prawneater
VysePresident

Town:
Lyserg-Zeroz
Metalcyanide

Unknown:
YYR

Can you elaborate on this a little more?

@LALENDRA WAGON ANALYSIS:

i) Acryon's reasoning in his votepost:
-when she gives her read on acryon it only focuses on the stuff that he said during RVS
-that her read on Aristophanes escalated from her being slightly wary of him to something worth voting for just from him making a naked vote
-her putting Ari close to lynching range when she'd made a big deal out of Lyserg doing the same thing to a lesser degree before
-changing from Ari to Lalendra because he doesn't want a quickhammer
ii) Aristophanes's reasoning in his votepost:
-agrees with the escalating read on him based on the naked vote as being scummy
-that it feels opportunistic that Lalendra sheeped West's reasoning for voting him later
-that Lal was possibly third party hunting
-that West/Metal/Lal scumteam is likely
iii) orcinus's reasoning just before his votepost:
-that she's fencesitty
iv) farside's reasoning [in a non-vote post]:
-stating concern for mislynch
-using vague words when discussing a read on Aristophanes and then voting him for a naked vote
-her being against meta discussion
-flipping her read on farside based on her suspecting her
v) Lyserg's reasoning in his votepost:
[I could be totally wrong on some of these so lemme know if I'm wrong]
-a lack of questioning of things in this game vs her town game
-some of her questioning seems like posturing to try and either dismantle suspicion on her and to push a scumread on someone
-some of her points seem like too much of a stretch
-an opportunistic Ari vote

-Cheetory6

Love this post. Looking at the wagons, I think there are more scum on Lalendra's wagon than Aristophanes'.

Lalendra (5): acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR, Lyserg-Zeroz
Aristophanes (4): West9, Metalcyanide, farside22, Lalendra

I don't particularly care for 4 dudes on Lalendra: acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR
I don't particularly care for 2 dudes on Arisophanes: Metalcyanide, Lalendra

I'd be pretty happy with lynching one of acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR

[acryon]

I don't particularly care for 4 dudes on Lalendra: acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR
I don't particularly care for 2 dudes on Arisophanes: Metalcyanide, Lalendra

I'd be pretty happy with lynching one of acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal, YRR

So you don't care for 6 different people, fully

half

of the players, and you would be happy lynching one of 4 people, fully one third of the players. Why don't you make a stance and pick 2 that you feel are the worst, because saying you would be ok lynching a third of the player base means absolutely nothing.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Hey look here I'm on a bunch of scumpiles

[Ginko]

VOTE: Acryon

[Ginko]

Acryon is scum who doesn't understand how someone can distrust 6 people because he's only hunting for a selection of the scum in this game.
Lalendra case is full of a lot of 'Lalendra is being weird' points and her doing things that people don't understand.
Someone make striking points that I can relate to on Lalendra or you should get on board this sexier wagon.

-Cheetory

[acryon]

Acryon is scum who doesn't understand how someone can distrust 6 people because he's only hunting for a selection of the scum in this game.
Lalendra case is full of a lot of 'Lalendra is being weird' points and her doing things that people don't understand.
Someone make striking points that I can relate to on Lalendra or you should get on board this sexier wagon.

-Cheetory

Distrusting 6 people is one thing, but saying you would be ok lynching any of 4 people is a completely different thing. There is a world of difference between general suspicion and willingness to lynch.

[acryon]

There is a great scum-incentive to put out a large group of people you distrust, because it makes setting up future mislynches a lot easier. And they don't have any real skin in the game, because someone pushing one person that flips town looks a lot worse than someone pushing one of their four possibles that flips town.

I don't necessarily think he's scum, but putting out a list like that means nothing.