Open 585: Jungle Republic (ended)


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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:23 pm

Post by Honey bee »

Vote count 1.06


Aristophanes (5):
West9, VysePresident, Metalcyanide, farside22, Lalendra
Lalendra (3):
acryon, Aristophanes, orcinus_theoriginal
Metalcyanide (1):
prawneater
orcinus_theoriginal (1):
Lyserg-Zeroz
West9 (1):
Ginko
Ginko (1):
YRR

Not voting:
With 12 alive It takes 7 to lynch. Day ends in: (expired on 2015-01-22 22:14:00)
Last edited by Honey bee on Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:18 pm

Post by Metalcyanide »

@Acryon: No you are not necessarily going after low hanging fruit but at the moment if you wanted to I think there are others to look at. Also the sell me out thing was mostly a joke because Lal doesn't like to lose to me in anything (eg Monopoly and video games). She is a noob to this and I think would try to get me lynched if she thought it would make her look better. There is always the possibility of her just being wrong like our last game.

Also, I'm going to stop with my Lal jokes she is not reacting to them at all and it's just disappointing and I think I may end up confusing people more than I normally do.
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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:56 pm

Post by Lyserg-Zeroz »

^I mean, she did suicide-bomb you in her first game and hammer you in the next...
Also, I asked you stuff before, but whatevs, you said you'd comment on me later so I'm assuming that's where I'll get answers(?). Also, what did you mean Ari only got one reaction? West, Orci and I reacted too. Why do you think Lalendra was "defending you" with her reaction to Ari's vote? She even sort of implied that Ari might've been doing a scum-distancing-vote, you two scum buddies 0o0? Also, I'm not sure I get the newbtown read, when I was going through your Lal-read I just really didn't see it concluding with that (I mean, you say things like she's using West reasons to vote, or that she is "oddly defending you"...).

@Mod:
prawneater is voting Metalcyanide, not Vyse P=
@Prawneater: Thoughts on popular lynch candidates Ari and Lalendra, please.

Gonna try to figure out a vote in my next post (so I'm probably going to ramble)
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:01 pm

Post by Lyserg-Zeroz »

I'm dumb. Prawn totes commented on Lalendra, but thoughts on the wagon itself would be coo' too.
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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:48 pm

Post by Ginko »

In post 274, farside22 wrote:Confirmation bias?
I've heard the term but don't recall what it means.


Bad at explaining things but it's basically trying to find evidence to prove your own reads rather than letting the evidence form the reads.

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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:06 pm

Post by prawneater »

Well I don't like an Aristophanes lynch as much as a Metalcyanide one. I will point out one potentially scummy sentence Aristophanes has written though.

Post 115: "I really don't get what you want from me".

I've been watching some live Mafia lately and one common scumtell they talk about is any variation of "what do you want from me?"

Apparently people who say this have a very high chance of being scum. Whether this applies to forum Mafia, I dunno.
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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:24 pm

Post by Lyserg-Zeroz »

Quickpost cuz Prawn is here:
Does the idea that Metal was pressure voting Orci do anything to affect your initial reads of him not trying to figure out the game and of him just hoping on wagons for a quicklynch? Do you think using gut-feeling is inherently scummy or is it just the way Metal did that?
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:36 pm

Post by prawneater »

I don't interpret metal's vote as pressure. He voted, didn't direct any questions toward Orci, then unvoted one day after.

The way Metal does it is scummy. We all have gut-feelings, but we can quantify them by quoting a post or talking about tone. Just saying "I have a gut-feeling" is a super easy way to park a vote and it should be called out.
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:16 pm

Post by Lyserg-Zeroz »

He voted, didn't direct any questions toward Orci, then unvoted one day after.

Hmm... he seemed to demand and explanation from Orci about the random votes thou. Do you read the unvote itself any way in particular? Speaking of Orci: do you have any thoughts on him?
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:19 pm

Post by YYR »

zzz

VOTE: Lalendra

Someone should smack me if I don't make a substantial post tomorrow.
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:59 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

I'll be here tomorrow, just wanted to mention to Honeybee I have my vote on Lalendra, not Metal. I'm doublevoting according to the last two vote counts.
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:22 pm

Post by Lyserg-Zeroz »

Here's where my head's at (preview-edit: Spoilers for order and to give the illusion of it being less of a wall):

- Ari:
Spoiler:
Sort of going back and forth with him. Also, think you didn't answer Lalendra's request for reads and stuff. I get the case on Ari, thou the "he was lying" stuff feels like too much of a hopeful "AH HA!" moment to be really something that should indicate scumAri rather than just a silly Ari. I just don't really feel all that confident on an Aristo vote, but I'm maybe being too lenient with him and don't really think I have good reasons to oppose that lynch anyways (so I don't).


- Lalendra:
Spoiler:
With fear of falling victim to confirmation bias I went back to the "Keely's BS" game that had townLalendra and the playstyle doesn't seem that different, but I feel like my initial impression of her scumgame found some validation. She did ask more for clarifications there than here, and more about things that don't directly relate to her; the questions at Ari at (this <post> tag is so great) are like that, but that could've been partly to get attention off her and partly to present the idea that Ari is tunnelling, and there's the re-asking of a question to Orci on her updated readslist, thou the original question () also feels like it's being asked to aid the scumlean, in how it seems to be used to point out a contradiction more than anything else ("Also why is Metalcyanide an easy lynch if no one is voting for him?"). The Keely's BS game was sorta short and I still wish I had more townLalendra material, because the difference isn't really that harsh, but this makes me read this Lal as scummier anyways.

   I don't think the stated out loud fear of mislynch or stuff about the seer is necessarily alignment indicative and I could see that as she just thinking out loud. I don't like that some of her points seem to be too much of a strech, like the werewolf Orcinus and the meta stuff too (unless I misunderstood and that "he asked for meta" point wasn't an argument for a scumOrci, @Lalendra/AnyoneElseWhoReadThatDifferently), although I can kinda understand her arguments for how that's negative I thought those were somewhat contrived and I don't think it should be that hard to see asking for people's meta as something natural, specially when, out of nowhere, a bunch of people who seem to know each other pop up in the forums (I admit I'm biased here but whatevs); or how with me even after Acryon called her out she went "", which seems like a stretch and like trying too hard not to lose the argument (hmmm... stubborness is not necessary alignment indicative, I suppose), oh an the opportunistic Ari vote I guess...
Anyways, I feel good with a Lalendra vote: VOTE: Lalendra. @Metal: You should still convince me of your newbtown read, yo.

- Vyse:
Spoiler:
Vyse gave me a massive scum gutfeeling with his intro for some reason (maybe adverse reaction and paranoia against what I perceived as maybe buddying for too carelessly given towniepoints and supportive vote) but his later posts (and time I guess) sort of lessened the feeling. Vyse should still come hang out with us more often thou...

- Acryon:
Spoiler:
I think Acryon overexplained himself in regards to some of the stuff I was saying, first about seeing the game in a werewolf/non-werewolf way and then that comment on how he didn't mean nitpicky negatively (I mean, I did say I was nitpicky myself and all), it mildly stroke me as odd that he mentioned he wasn't sure if I was trying to "" with that about being nitpicky, but decided to go further into how "nitpicky" isn't negative instead of taking my suggestion of engaging me about his suspicions or just leaving it at that. I feel like the interactions with Orci (save for maybe that post about Orci not voting) have been way too inocuous. These stuff makes me feel scummy about Acryon. Acryon's latests post are pretty much alright thou.


- Orci:
Spoiler:
^Besides the thing I mentioned there about incouous interactions I'm having a hard time reading Orci, if the reason he wasn't answering about West was simply a no-read I think he could've just stated that from the beginning, but eh, I'm probably being too stubborn about that point. I'm kinda just hoping I'll get a better read with some time for the game to advance and for me to try reading more of his past games.

- Metal:
Spoiler:
I was mostly alright with Metal, for some reason the vagueness on his Ari vote didn't bother me that much, but looking back, the "keeping my vote here unless someone can convince me otherwise" is pretty strong for gutfeeling. The way he's been talking about Lalendra is questionable and makes me inclined to think that if Lal is scum then so is Metal (this read gets fuzzier because of their actual real life friendship thou). The selfawareness and carefulness on his explanation of being self-concerned sorta reminded me of this one thing he said on our game as scumbuddies, where he actually talked about how he was doing a safe vote and didn't want others to think he was bandwagoning (and I used that to casually throw some newbtown points at him), then I tried doing looking over a townMetal game to see if that kind of thing is alignment neutral or not and found a post with him commenting on a mislynch, on how he sheeped his vote for the mislynched person and how he was "bringing it up before anyone else did", which gives me a similar selfawareness/carefulness vibe (that was the Magi Mafia Magica game... eh: Here) . I probably should look over other games too (but laziness ^-^'...).


- Eff spoilers because from now on all is short: I've been feeling like Ginko is somewhat lacking, not sure how much of this is due to a combo of me overhyping the Cheet head in my mind for how he killed all of my scumteam last game I played with him and that they seem rather busy. Small stuff that's bothered me I've already said and I'm getting too lazy to self-quote.

- ... At this point I'm just really sleepy and don't remember having anything new/noteworthy to say about anyone else. Lalendra vote stays. (On the making of this post I realised I'm lacking aggresiveness and I need to get more assertive again >.<)... I think I wanted to ask West something but forgot what it was .-. ...
@West
: Can you read me a Ginko?

... Ohai Young. (So I'm... L-2? Sure).
Young about Ginko maybe baiting Ari wrote:I agree. Not for the same reasons, but I agree. All these "waiting until later" and reactions tests are hindering any kind of coherent conversation here, though

^What were your reasons to agree?
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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:24 am

Post by VysePresident »

So, I've spent several hours trying to sort through this game, and it's six A.M., so I'm just going to start throwing down my notes and letting you guys pick through them.

-First off, I'm finding the constant player meta tells & conversation to be mostly empty noise, and it's making it painfully difficult for me to sort through for something I can use. I feel like I'm trying to follow a book without having a clue who the characters are, or why they're relevant. Basically, it's like trying to read Robert Jordan. :P

Seriously though, I'd really appreciate it if we could either tone this stuff down, or at least explain it in a way that's easier to follow for those of us who have no clue what you're talking about. (Also, if somebody could post a game to skim through that you've all (or at least mostly) played together, that'd be really cool.)

Also, please keep in mind that line breaks are an eye's best friend. Paragraph walls aren't. :)
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:33 am

Post by VysePresident »

Anyway, down to business.

VOTE: Ginko

--I'm not really sure about my Ari read at this point. I still dislike his early play, but his more recent content is so far afield of what I'd expected from him that I'm second-guessing my ability to read him. He's not a terrible lynch, but I'm leaning towards one of Ginko or Acryon at the moment, for reasons I'll hit in a second. Prawn isn't great, but there's not a lot to go on, and my read on Lalendra is pretty meh at this point. I'd probably put them both lower on my list than Ari.

--So, the thing that's bugging me the most about Ginko is that I gather both heads have played a number of games with most of you guys, and I'd have expected them to be on top of the mess I'm seeing here as Town. We're stuck in a morass of text-walls being hurled at each other, with very little purpose or effect that I can see.

Correct me on this if I'm wrong, but I feel like they're in the best position to be sorting through the game, and I don't like that they're not actively doing so. There's a bit of Townish noise, but it doesn't really seem to lead anywhere. I'd really, really like to see some more content from you guys. It wouldn't be too hard to get me to shift my vote at this point.

--I dislike Acryon's - I'm not really seeing the defensiveness people were talking about, but I do dislike the way he puts his vote on Ari. His reasoning is weak, and feels more like an excuse. His response implying that he was pressuring is thin.

On the other hand, there are a few posts of his I like, mostly from when it feels like he's sorting through the game. Consider this me taking note of a bad gut read that I really need to sort through.

--I'll analyze the Lalandra case & wagon in the morning. I'm literally falling asleep at my computer right now.
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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:39 am

Post by VysePresident »

[float=][/float]Actually, since I can do this really quickly.

@Lyserg - Regarding me calling Metal "Anti Scum". -- In short, the posts talking about how he didn't want to be lynched seemed like a blatanly counterproductive thing for scum to say. It translates into a weak Null-Town read. Basically, I'm not really seeing much in the way of direction or positioning from his posts, which tends towards being a good sign.

(By direction, I mean that he doesn't seem to be trying to lead us anywhere with his posts. By positioning, I mean things like playing safe and trying to avoid notice, or trying to create a narrative for Town to follow.)

Hopefully that was understandable. It's late, and I'm brain dead, so that's it for me for now. More tomorrow.
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:45 am

Post by farside22 »

In post 279, Ginko wrote:
In post 274, farside22 wrote:Confirmation bias?
I've heard the term but don't recall what it means.


Bad at explaining things but it's basically trying to find evidence to prove your own reads rather than letting the evidence form the reads.

^Johnny


I'm bad at explaining things, but the later part is a scum tell in my book.
Usually if there is a convo talking place in thread and someone ignores it and post a case based on one sided comments that's pretty scummy. I thought that was more information without analsys
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:54 am

Post by farside22 »

In post 288, VysePresident wrote:Anyway, down to business.

VOTE: Ginko

--I'm not really sure about my Ari read at this point. I still dislike his early play, but his more recent content is so far afield of what I'd expected from him that I'm second-guessing my ability to read him. He's not a terrible lynch, but I'm leaning towards one of Ginko or Acryon at the moment, for reasons I'll hit in a second. Prawn isn't great, but there's not a lot to go on, and my read on Lalendra is pretty meh at this point. I'd probably put them both lower on my list than Ari.

--So, the thing that's bugging me the most about Ginko is that I gather both heads have played a number of games with most of you guys, and I'd have expected them to be on top of the mess I'm seeing here as Town. We're stuck in a morass of text-walls being hurled at each other, with very little purpose or effect that I can see.

Correct me on this if I'm wrong, but I feel like they're in the best position to be sorting through the game, and I don't like that they're not actively doing so. There's a bit of Townish noise, but it doesn't really seem to lead anywhere. I'd really, really like to see some more content from you guys. It wouldn't be too hard to get me to shift my vote at this point.

--I dislike Acryon's - I'm not really seeing the defensiveness people were talking about, but I do dislike the way he puts his vote on Ari. His reasoning is weak, and feels more like an excuse. His response implying that he was pressuring is thin.

On the other hand, there are a few posts of his I like, mostly from when it feels like he's sorting through the game. Consider this me taking note of a bad gut read that I really need to sort through.

--I'll analyze the Lalandra case & wagon in the morning. I'm literally falling asleep at my computer right now.


Your whole case is based on expectations of a player, rather then why what they have done is scummy.
:neutral:
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:47 am

Post by Ginko »

@Lalendra
,
Please get an avatar. I will give you high fives if you do.

Lalendra wrote:Hasn’t put out a whole lot of his own opinions yet
Why is this a reason to think Acryon's posts have a townfeel to them?

Lyserg wrote:She did ask more for clarifications there than here
Are you referring to her asking for clarifications on general mafia-related things or asking for clarifications on things that people mean?

Lyserg wrote:The Keely's BS game was sorta short and I still wish I had more townLalendra material, because the difference isn't really that harsh, but
this makes me read this Lal as scummier anyways
.
Can you expand on this thought? Not really sure what you mean.

@Lyserg
, I'm kind of confused as to how you're arriving at a comfortable place with your vote on Lalendra when it seems to me like you're pretty unsure of your individual points about her in #286. Is it the culmination of a bunch of small things that's just making you feel like she's probably scum?

prawneater wrote:You on the other hand seem to jump to whatever popular bandwagon is going. First with orcinus_theoriginal
How was orcinus the popular bandwagon when Ari was the first person to vote for him??

@Metal
,
Ginko wrote:
What's your general perception of Ari's towngame?
If you ignore me again I will cut you.

Lyserg wrote:I've been feeling like Ginko is somewhat lacking, not sure how much of this is due to a combo of me overhyping the Cheet head in my mind for how he killed all of my scumteam last game I played with him and that they seem rather busy.
Why're you acting like I didn't completely botch the entire first half of that game? o.o

Vyse wrote:It wouldn't be too hard to get me to shift my vote at this point.
What's the value in saying this? You literally disarmed your own vote on me. :/

I'm currently looking over Acryon and West and want to talk to Johnny about both of them because I'm insecure and need external validation/I want to say words that actually make sense about them. I can see where people are coming from on Aristophanes, but I just don't really think he's scum. Going with gut>logic on this one and feel like his play is more just bad than scummy.

Need to see a concise Lalendra case because my head got really fuzzy trying to parse most of what was going on there besides like one of farside's points on her somewhat resonating with me. Might summarize all the votes when I have some more time today and then see what I think about it.

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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 7:08 am

Post by Lalendra »

Avatar. BOOM.

Image

V/LA til Monday, will post if I have time.
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:03 am

Post by Metalcyanide »

Okay so for the reads I owe sorry for the delay on these I've been distracted by real life:

Lyserg-Zeroz - I'm liking what I've seen from Lyserg. Some good break downs of his thoughts on people and questions towards everyone. Town read

To anwser some of the questions you've asked me: Lal's scum game and town game were read completly differently to me and this is reading like her town game. Who knows maybe she learned some things though. Thats a much of an agruement I have for newbtown on Lal.

Ginko - A little less active than I remember Cheet normally being, don't know if this has to do with him hydraing with Johnny (whos game I can't really recall), otherwise they have had some good posts. town lean I guess I've never been able to read Cheet in D1.

prawneater - I don't really have a good read on prawn, the posts he has are decent and convey what his current thoughts are but there still isn't a lot there. I've already pointed this out and he acknowladged he is "low content poster" but I would like to see something more significant from him. leaning town based off what we have.


Ginko wrote:What's your general perception of Ari's towngame?

Sorry I thought I've anwsred this already, apperently I'm stupid and haven't. Ari's general town game, as I've seen it, has been that of leader of town and trying to get people to follow him. I haven't been getting that this game. I also don't think town Ari is as bad as he has been.

I'm also going to be V/LA til Monday. I may check in, Lal will let you all know if I have a heart attack and die during the Patriots game.
Yell questions at me that I'm sure I missed. I'll get to them. Bye Bye
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:17 am

Post by farside22 »

Metal: why does this read like lal's town game?
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:34 am

Post by Ginko »

Somebody explain confirmation bias for me, I don't think she's getting it.

Vyse's and Lyserg are both suspecting my other head for not being as good as they want him to be. Stuff like that makes mafia less fun :C

Vyse in particular seems weird to me because I don't know if he's just bad at voting or he's avoiding talking about someone else

Also Metal doesn't remember my play? I must have been slacking recently :C:C

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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:09 am

Post by Ginko »

West wrote:Is this just you being against giving people townreads? I'm very confused by this point.
Scum can investedly scumhunt in a more convincing way as there's another faction that they know exists. Much more likely than usual for a townread to be scum, I literally know from super recent experience. I'm not discouraging townreads, but I'm going to try really hard not to let my reads on the town side get too static and I suggest other people keep this in mind as well.

West wrote:is the "you" that I bolded supposed to be a general "you"
General you. Can replace it with 'one' as well.

West wrote:This doesn't explain why you ignored it.
Don't really see how I'm ignoring your response? Unless you mean I'm not analyzing your response as a whole or something?

West wrote:And, of course, you're still ignoring that he straight out says "I was making a point that [West's] logic was flawed."
Aristophanes wrote:I was making a point that his logic was flawed, but I also was
definitely still joking around
.
I feel like the bolded is a pretty important distinction that you're blatantly ignoring.

West wrote:Fuck that shit, RVS/joking period ended at post 41. Ari was continuing his "we could both be scum" argument at 62, while he was making the non-RVS argument of "Orci isn't doing anything."
Yeah because you egged him on about it here:
West wrote:Also, he still hasn't disproved my initial logic.

I'm kind of struggling to clearly articulate exactly what is bothering me so much about the way you're approaching this, but in my head it's like you're saying "Aristophanes is scummy for the serious RVS stuff he was saying-." So when Ari says it's a joke and it really seems to me like it's pretty clearly a joke, it's weird that you throw shit at him over his jokereasoning, he responds to that and now you come back and say that it wasn't RVS reasoning because he responded to you prodding at him over it? Your tone wasn't even clearly serious there, so it comes across as feeling especially sleezy to me. It seems to me like he only talked about it later because you set him up to do so.
^
Everyone
should make an effort to read this part of the game because I'm pretty sure West is setting Ari up here.


West wrote:Regarding his meta, that's one of the points of this. scumAri trying to emphasize the possibility of a situation where he and I could be on separate teams but both be scum makes complete sense to me after the last D2 game.
Can you explain this more clearly?

Acryon
:
i) Do you consider yourself to be a player who has slow starts in general?

ii) I'm pretty shrug with most of his play up until his 22nd post at which point he starts to focus really hard on Lalendra. This feels kinda inconsistent with his play prior in this game. He becomes very focused on asking Lalendra questions and making points as to why she's scummy, whereas he was kind of more disinterested in pushing for Aristophanes or asking him questions. I feel like there's a very distinct difference in playstyle being taken here and it doesn't even make much sense from a perspective of "I think that Aristophanes is less scummy than Lalendra", because his reasoning when he unvotes is that he wants to avoid a quickhammer.
Kind of gives me the impression that Ari or Lalendra might be a scummate of his [more likely Lalendra just from some other interactions] or that he might have been forcing his scumread on Aristophanes and felt uncomfortable pushing it.

iii) A lot of his play beyond pushing his main scumread feels just kind of reactionary. Any post that isn't him making a point on why someone is scummy is usually just a response to other people's questioning of him. I don't really see a lot of outward questioning that comes across as him making a genuine effort to try and sort people.

iv)
Acryon wrote:Knowing she has only played one game on their site, do your feelings change?
Why is this a valuable question for you to be asking farside given your scumread on Lal? Run me through the thought process here.
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:11 am

Post by Ginko »

^-Cheetory6
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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:19 am

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Oh, because Johnny sucks at explaining things.
@farside:
Confirmation bias is typically when a player is like "I think this person is scum" and then they proceed to see everything and anything that player does through a biased POV because they already think they're scum.
P1: "I think player X is scum because of this one reason that might be reasonable. I also think their lurking is scummy!"
P2: "But player X has a general meta of lurking?"
P1: "I'm literally so sure he's scum so I will ignore this consideration."

I'm gonna go suffer through schoolthings now.
zzzzz.

-Cheetory6
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