433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:15 pm

Post by gorckat »

Das wrote:As it stands I think inHim is our best lynch today, and I think his gambit smacks of desperation of someone who has no good answers to his bandwagon.
Das wrote:What worries me about inHim is that it is a bandwagon that has gone to -1 under a deadline, and it feels like we've simply been distracted away from it.
Pie 6 wrote:That being said, I'm finding InHim's resistance to claiming a bit scummy ("It helps the town" is unneccesarily vague, and he attacked Gorckat rather than Gorckat's legitimate point).
These were the points that made me feel justified re-voting him. I do feel like we've been distracted off of his wagon.
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:15 pm

Post by Thestatusquo »

nanook: 1 (mbl)
inhim: 5 (Daquian, IH, gorckat, kilm, off the mark)

MBL: 3 (Pie, superstring, nanook)
Off the mark: 3 (inhim, fonz pete d)
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:41 pm

Post by Dasquian »

Pie_is_good wrote:Any debate with MBL is, obviously, for the benefit of the observers - I'm not going to convince MBL that he's scum. If observers (read: you) are just going to ignore it all, frankly, you're the one wasting our time.
But, we've
had
that debate. We've had it several times over many, many pages, and it's become clear that there is insufficient support to get a claim out of him today. You are wasting my time and everyone else's by attempting to convince me to join a bandwagon I've already written off today.
inHimshallibe wrote:I really don't want to claim at all Today. I haven't thought about claiming in later Days. If this happens again Tomorrow, I'll probably claim so the Town can just get this issue out of their way; I'm sticking with my mission for Today, at least.
No one wants to claim until they're ready, that's a given. Unfortunately you still have 5/7 votes, we still have a deadline, and we're still short of a reason
not
to lynch you. Yeah, it sucks for you, and maybe retrospectively I'll rue the decision to press you, but you've got to understand it's not good enough for me to back off.
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2007 2:16 pm

Post by Off the Mark »

Looks like no one's going to change their mind before the deadline.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:34 am

Post by Off the Mark »

inHim, we are stuck until you claim. Waiting to claim until closer to the deadline is anti-town. We need time to evaluate an alternate target if your claim holds up - or is worth testing.
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:17 am

Post by inHimshallibe »

Off the Mark wrote:inHim, we are stuck until you claim. Waiting to claim until closer to the deadline is anti-town.
Not if I've said I'm not going to claim Today. I'm not
waiting
to claim, I'm flat out not claiming.
We need time to evaluate an alternate target if your claim holds up - or is worth testing.
Why not do that now? Lazy scum, that'd be why. Now you're just stretching whatever you can to seem helpful. You took Dasquian's argument, which I responded to, but messed up a little. Haven't you been evaluating everyone?

Dasquian, I completely understand the reason you wouldn't want to unvote me. I've answered the questions posed to me in my defense (please call to my attention any that I haven't). I don't
want
to be lynched, obviously, but the deadline doesn't threaten me.
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 2:51 pm

Post by Off the Mark »

Why not do that now? Lazy scum, that'd be why. Now you're just stretching whatever you can to seem helpful. You took Dasquian's argument, which I responded to, but messed up a little. Haven't you been evaluating everyone?
Of course I have, but for the town as a whole to reach a consensus, it takes time. That was a strawman if I've ever seen one. I'm more convinced than ever that you're scum. Enjoy your noose.
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:36 am

Post by Dasquian »

OK, I see a few possibilities here:

1) You're a unremarkable pro-town role who is for some reason refusing to cooperate. This would just be poor play.
2) You can't claim for a pro-town reason.
3) You won't claim for a pro-town reason (it's even worse than getting lynched for not claiming).
4) You can't claim for a non-pro-town reason (you're a survivor, or some weird killer role).
5) You're scum hoping to confuse us and avoid a lynch by doing something that rarely makes sense.

Now, I don't know your playstyle very well but I am fairly happy discounting (1). (4) and (5) obviously mean we should hold the course and lynch you. So the question I have is whether you are in possession of an unusual role that means that you're pro-town and this is actually good pro-town play. You're playing it as though you are, but it just always come back to being more likely that this is your agenda as (5).

inHim, is there
any
way in which you can help us out here without claiming? If not, sorry, but I have to press for the lynch.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:45 am

Post by The Fonz »

Dasquian wrote:OK, I see a few possibilities here:

1) You're a unremarkable pro-town role who is for some reason refusing to cooperate. This would just be poor play.
Absolutely untrue. A townie roleclaim won't save him anyway, and if somehow someone else does something very scummy between now and the deadline and he ends up not getting lynched, we're better off with him alive unclaimed, than alive as a claimed townie.

2) You can't claim for a pro-town reason.
3) You won't claim for a pro-town reason (it's even worse than getting lynched for not claiming).
The player BabyJesus has a policy of lynching claimed Doctors, since they're highly likely to be scum and if they're not, they won't survive the night anyway. Why is this relevant? Well, it works in reverse too- if you think there's any chance of surviving without a claim, you shouldn't claim.

So it makes sense for him to not claim as townie, and also as doc. So by not claiming, he leaves the scum in the dark as to whether he's powerrole. The antitown reasons you've suggested amount, basically, to 'too townie.'
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:59 am

Post by Dasquian »

The Fonz wrote:and if somehow someone else does something very scummy between now and the deadline and he ends up not getting lynched
Do you think this will happen - honestly? I'm not going to say it couldn't, but realistically, I think that seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

Can someone explain deadline rules to me please, or point me towards where they are?
The Fonz wrote:So it makes sense for him to not claim as townie, and also as doc. So by not claiming, he leaves the scum in the dark as to whether he's powerrole.
Only if he doesn't get lynched - which is your core assumption, that he might yet get out of it. Everyone knows who he is if he does get lynched, unless he's something beyond a plain townie or doc anyway.
The Fonz wrote:The antitown reasons you've suggested amount, basically, to 'too townie.'
You're going to have to explain this for me. I thought he was scummy so I voted him. Other people agreed with him and he got to lynch -1. Then he's refusing to claim, and dragging it out limiting our options as the deadline draws closer. How is this "too townie"?

I'm entertaining the possibility that I'm wrong (shocking, eh?) and he's pro-town with a good reason for being tight-lipped, but I don't see how I can act on it as it seems much less likely than the obvious conclusion: he's scum (or otherwise anti-town) and he's bluffing.

Here's another question: who
should
claim at lynch -1? Your logic suggests that everyone should hold on to that chance of surviving without a claim and fight to the bitter end. If you ask me, that sounds like a great way to get shit Day 1's where Every. Single. Person. refuses to play ball because, hey, they might get away without getting lynched, and then the town has to make blind lynches if they want a lynch at all.
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:07 am

Post by Dasquian »

Oh, and to clarify as I think The Fonz misunderstood, by "unremarkable pro-town role", I don't mean vanilla townie. I mean any of the core roles that don't confer any particular reason to withhold a claim. Townie, cop, doc, vig, blocker, etc.

An example for (2) would be a role with a posting restriction preventing claiming.
An example for (3) would be a role where getting lynched unlocks a power-role ability, or something equally contrived.
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:59 am

Post by The Fonz »

Yes, I thought it meant VT. That is the obvious implication of being 'pro-town' and 'unremarkable.' This is a normal game, so I expect any role to be 'unremarkable' in the sense you are suggesting.
The Fonz wrote:So it makes sense for him to not claim as townie, and also as doc. So by not claiming, he leaves the scum in the dark as to whether he's powerrole.
Only if he doesn't get lynched - which is your core assumption, that he might yet get out of it. Everyone knows who he is if he does get lynched, unless he's something beyond a plain townie or doc anyway.
Well, quite. Again, if he is VT, the sole consequence of his claiming would be to get himself lynched, and if by some miracle a townie claim doesn't get him lynched, the town will be in a worse position than if he hadn't claimed. A vanilla townie should NEVER EVER EVER claim day one.

If he's our doc, I'd agree that he's taking a big risk here, one that I probably wouldn't take myself. But it's a logically consistent position that the payoff of not getting lynched as a claimed doc is barely better than getting lynched, so it's better to gamble on surviving without claiming (for which the payoff is hugely superior to either alternative).


The Fonz wrote:The antitown reasons you've suggested amount, basically, to 'too townie.'
You're going to have to explain this for me. I thought he was scummy so I voted him. Other people agreed with him and he got to lynch -1. Then he's refusing to claim, and dragging it out limiting our options as the deadline draws closer. How is this "too townie"?
I'm not suggesting your
entire case
against him is 'too townie.' I'm saying this specific bit is too townie:
5) You're scum hoping to confuse us and avoid a lynch by doing something that rarely makes sense.

In response to this:
I'm entertaining the possibility that I'm wrong (shocking, eh?) and he's pro-town with a good reason for being tight-lipped, but I don't see how I can act on it as it seems much less likely than the obvious conclusion: he's scum (or otherwise anti-town) and he's bluffing.
That's not the obvious conclusion. Scum generally aren't enormously reticent about claiming power-role to save their own hides. Which brings us back to your point five. It's possible, but wouldn't be the first thing I thought of, that he's scum trying to confuse us. Frankly, I think the most likely explanation is one you've ignored: inHim has a policy/habit not to claim day one, regardless of alignment, and it's no tell at all. He's already told you if you're convinced by his prior actions that he's scum, then you should be voting him.

Here's another question: who
should
claim at lynch -1? Your logic suggests that everyone should hold on to that chance of surviving without a claim and fight to the bitter end. If you ask me, that sounds like a great way to get shit Day 1's where Every. Single. Person. refuses to play ball because, hey, they might get away without getting lynched, and then the town has to make blind lynches if they want a lynch at all.
Well, no, the town doesn't have to make blind lynches. You lynch the scummiest person, same as you always would.

To answer the actual question though, I don't myself support the 'never claim as doc day one' position, so I'd say any power role. What I'm saying is I understand the position, it has some merit, and it's not necessarily scummy. If you bought 'never claim as doc' the answer would be 'Any powerrole that isn't doc.'
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 5:37 pm

Post by Pie_is_good »

inHim is, generally, fairly anti-claim. The fact that he's giving dumb reasons for not claiming, although it frustrates me as much as the next guy, is not particularly a tell of role or alignment for him.

If you're lynching him based on his posting, that's legit in concept (although I'd disagree). But don't lynch him based on his refusal to claim.
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:02 pm

Post by Dasquian »

OK, I hadn't realised inHim's refusal to claim Day 1 was a meta tactic. I agree that means his refusal to claim alone is not a tell.

That said, it's also not helpful to the town so why should we tolerate it? Anti-town play is anti-town play. I wouldn't expect anyone to put up with me if I had a meta play of sticking a fat, immoveable OMGUS vote on the first person to look my way, and if we're going meta, I don't think the game would be fun if everyone employed inHim's tactic, because...
The Fonz wrote:Well, no, the town doesn't have to make blind lynches. You lynch the scummiest person, same as you always would.
So what if the scummiest person is the cop, but is refusing to claim even though it's clear they're going down? Surely if they can claim and redirect the mob, they should - they have a responsiblity to as a town power-role; as ANY town role!

This meta just doesn't work - getting a claim out of someone is a great way to evaluate whether you want to continue to risk lynching someone, and gives the town more to go on in retrospect because scum are forced to react to all the true claims and be held accountable for whether they chicken out or seem over-eager when someone claims super-cop-doc, etc, or how keen they are to buy their since-deceased scum-buddy's poor fake claim.
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 12:55 am

Post by The Fonz »

Dasquian wrote:OK, I hadn't realised inHim's refusal to claim Day 1 was a meta tactic. I agree that means his refusal to claim alone is not a tell.

That said, it's also not helpful to the town so why should we tolerate it? Anti-town play is anti-town play. I wouldn't expect anyone to put up with me if I had a meta play of sticking a fat, immoveable OMGUS vote on the first person to look my way, and if we're going meta, I don't think the game would be fun if everyone employed inHim's tactic, because...
It's not necessarily a meta, though. It's not fair to call a policy employed over several games a meta

The Fonz wrote:Well, no, the town doesn't have to make blind lynches. You lynch the scummiest person, same as you always would.
So what if the scummiest person is the cop, but is refusing to claim even though it's clear they're going down? Surely if they can claim and redirect the mob, they should - they have a responsiblity to as a town power-role; as ANY town role!
As any town role? Even as VT? When I've explained how claiming as VT is never in the town's interest? Look, I'd agree with you on the specific case of cop.

This meta just doesn't work - getting a claim out of someone is a great way to evaluate whether you want to continue to risk lynching someone, and gives the town more to go on in retrospect because scum are forced to react to all the true claims and be held accountable for whether they chicken out or seem over-eager when someone claims super-cop-doc, etc, or how keen they are to buy their since-deceased scum-buddy's poor fake claim.
It isn't necessarily a meta. It's more a case of 'I believe the correct pro-town play here is not to claim.' It's no more a meta than 'I believe we shouldn't lynch claimed powerroles in the absence of a counterclaim.' There's no reason to think inHim's aim isn't to produce the best possible result for town in
this
game.

Also your 'getting a claim out of someone is a great way to blah blah blah...' is just untrue, and no reason at all to claim.

It seems to me you want inHim to claim so you can feel good about lynching him. Sorry, but you're just going to have to make your mind up on the merits here, if you're town.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 1:27 am

Post by Dasquian »

I want inHim to claim so that if he claims something important, we have time to consider finding another lynch. At this point it's pretty academic, though. I don't think there's enough time left.
The Fonz wrote:Also your 'getting a claim out of someone is a great way to blah blah blah...' is just untrue, and no reason at all to claim.
You're misrepresenting me here. I do not think that an individual should claim to directly flush out scum. I think that, as a site, the town benefits from forcing claims at lynch -1 and discussing them while the scum benefits from not opening up that avenue of discussion.

One very obvious application of this: if everyone claims, a mafia forced to claim on Day 1 will have to either claim VT or a fake power-role, which drastically increases the chances of them getting caught out there and then, or later in the game.
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 2:47 am

Post by The Fonz »

Dasquian wrote:I want inHim to claim so that if he claims something important, we have time to consider finding another lynch. At this point it's pretty academic, though. I don't think there's enough time left.
The Fonz wrote:Also your 'getting a claim out of someone is a great way to blah blah blah...' is just untrue, and no reason at all to claim.
You're misrepresenting me here. I do not think that an individual should claim to directly flush out scum. I think that, as a site, the town benefits from forcing claims at lynch -1 and discussing them while the scum benefits from not opening up that avenue of discussion.

One very obvious application of this: if everyone claims, a mafia forced to claim on Day 1 will have to either claim VT or a fake power-role, which drastically increases the chances of them getting caught out there and then, or later in the game.
You know that's a meta right?

Also, it's untrue. Towns do not benefit from 'forcing' claims at L-1. Towns benefit from giving people the opportunity
to
claim at L-1 if they so wish, but it is also in the town's interest that players have the option not to do so.

Why would a mafia 'forced' to claim on day one be in any better position than one who refused and was lynched anyway?
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 6:42 am

Post by Dasquian »

Not exactly a meta: I'm asserting that inHim's policy is poor town play because if everyone adopted it the town would make less-informed lynches with less useful discussion to look back on.

I can definitely see instances when a pro-town player shouldn't claim; however they are definitely not very numerous if getting lynched looks to be an otherwise certainty. You didn't answer my earlier question - what do you think the likelihood of us not lynching inHim at this point is?
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 7:47 am

Post by The Fonz »

I don't know. I'm not voting inHim, and I'm not psychic, so I can't comment on how likely it is any of the five on him decide to switch away. It's irrelevant anyway, as my reading of the probabilities isn't the same as inHim's, and it's his that matters.

Let me ask you this, though: let's assume for a second he gets lynched and comes up vanilla. How is the town any worse off for his not having claimed?
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:15 am

Post by Dasquian »

We'll be worse off because we'll have nobody's reactions to him claiming vanilla townie - who was overly keen to lynch him anyway? Who backed off suspiciously readily? Who came across as being pro-town? Nobody, because we wouldn't have been put in that situation.
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:32 am

Post by The Fonz »

But a vanilla townie claim shouldn't change anyone's position. And besides, it's not like him not claiming hasn't gotten a reaction.
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 9:37 am

Post by Pie_is_good »

Dasquian wrote:That said, it's also not helpful to the town so why should we tolerate it? Anti-town play is anti-town play. I wouldn't expect anyone to put up with me if I had a meta play of sticking a fat, immoveable OMGUS vote on the first person to look my way, and if we're going meta, I don't think the game would be fun if everyone employed inHim's tactic, because...
'zactly. So why aren't you voting MBL? He was the first one to refuse to claim.
The Fonz wrote:But a vanilla townie claim shouldn't change anyone's position. And besides, it's not like him not claiming hasn't gotten a reaction.
Not neccesarily true. Employment of Best Worst-Case Scenario in fake claiming is a very common example of WIFOMery.
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 10:33 am

Post by The Fonz »

Can you explain what you meant by that last bit, Pie?
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 4:58 pm

Post by Off the Mark »

MBL refused to claim when there was very little pressure on him. This is normal and pro-town. (still leaning scum on him though)

inHim's refusal to claim at
all
on Day 1 is quite different.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:25 am

Post by gorckat »

Checking in- my home PC is down a case fan and maybe a power supply, so I can only post from work for a few days.

Reading up, I'm not sure I can really add much.

Part of me is just eager to close the day and see what we can learn from inHim (or whomever's) alignment and any night actions.

Nanook and string have both been silent the last week, with string short a promised post:
superstring91 wrote:i am going to leave my vote on until tomorrow, when i have
thoroughly
reviewed what i have missed
That strikes me, since they are both voting MBL. Not sure if that points at anything, but does raise my eyebrow.

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