—Mini 1635— Curse of the Werewolves: Game Over

[FourTrouble]

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Unvote.

This is town.

[FourTrouble]

I can't really comment on FT, considering the case of FT is mostly a lack of presence and I haven't read up on FT as much as I would have liked to.

Seriously? You've played with me before and should know that's not a scum-tell for me. Plus, I don't actually lack presence this game; I was on vacation until two days ago and didn't have time to post. And I value concision and don't feel like cluttering up the thread with meaningless bullshit like half the players here.

[Nachomamma8]

I fail to see how 123 shows an "emotional investment in scumhunting". Even when she delves into a meta-iso in 159 and makes a one-off comment about the iso. It shows she put in slight effort, finding a comment 50 posts down, but that's about it. Effort is not a towntell and I fail to see how that can't be faked.

Emotional investment is demonstrated in the exchange with Konowa starting at #123, not in #123 itself. Language and orly owl in #139 at least shows confidence and a pretty strong belief that she's in the right. #160 makes some pretty strong assertions and similar comments for page 7, #167 explains not only why she finds Konowa's quickly changing reasons are scummy (it looks like he's providing justification for a conclusion he's already reached), why she's railing as hard as she was against him (she feels he's uncomfortable with engaging people which is why he's sniping farside from the sidelines instead of actually engaging her). To me, emotional investment in a case is a developed thought process, passion enough to come through posting, and genuineness. To me, the exchange shows all of these: why do you disagree?

The first point is TTH trying to attack Konowa from farside's POV. She's not trying to understand Konowa at all. The second point is TTH saying "you have biases and so you interpreted this post wrong". Which is not a strong point?

Why do you say this is TTH trying to attack Konowa from farside's POV? The bias point, which Konowa acknowledged and brought up himself (so it's not presumed, it's acknowledged), points out that a lot of Konowa's push is irrational because he was frustrated with farside's behavior in an earlier game. As far as understanding where Konowa is coming from, TTH does that when she figures out that Konowa's main problem was the closemindedness and frankness of farside's response to FT, TTH points out that she's not being a dick for no reason and there's a progression to the hostility.

If what you're trying to say is that you feel like TTH is coming down overly hard on Konowa as opposed to farside, then yeah, she's doing that, but she's writing a case on Konowa, so that's sort of to be expected.

I don't understand why I have to pick a side in the argument if the way they are both approaching it is town: just because I disagree with their push doesn't mean I think it's bad and it doesn't mean I think it makes them scum. I just think it's wrong, my prince.

[Nachomamma8]

I've come to expect dumb wagonhopping from ABR, but tell me, 4Tuppence, why Victor is the best lynch here. Exactly why do you believe he is scum? What will his scumflip tell you? Was there anything going through your head when you voted him other than "God, I hope I'm not lynched today."?

Yes, there was more to the vote than hoping I'm not lynched (though obviously that's a factor). Victor is probably scum based on process of elimination. I also disagree with Nacho that it's a "lazy" lynch. For me, it's based on townreads which weren't lazy at all. And Victor's "scumflip" would tell us quite a lot, in terms how/when people vote for Victor, especially in relation to the wagon on me, or potential counter-wagons on others. We don't need Victor's reads for that sort of information, and ultimately that's the kind of information I'm interested in.

If you have strong townreads on 10 players, you have three scumspects. I feel you'd get a much better idea of if your perceptions would be correct if you pushed the stronger scumreads and see if they towned in response: pushing Victor tells me that you have the entire game figured out and I know you're not that bad/that blinded by arrogance to make that type of a push.

[Nachomamma8]

I can't really comment on FT, considering the case of FT is mostly a lack of presence and I haven't read up on FT as much as I would have liked to.

Seriously? You've played with me before and should know that's not a scum-tell for me. Plus, I don't actually lack presence this game; I was on vacation until two days ago and didn't have time to post. And I value concision and don't feel like cluttering up the thread with meaningless bullshit like half the players here.

Clarification: I didn't say or mean to imply I was scumreading you, I said I didn't feel informed enough to give an opinion on you since I'm still behind in the game.

[FourTrouble]

Clarification: I didn't say or mean to imply I was scumreading you, I said I didn't feel informed enough to give an opinion on you since I'm still behind in the game.

I thought it was weird that you'd go into excessive detail about your townread on Andrius while not commenting on the main wagon (mine, which was recently put to L-1) but if you're not caught up, then okay that makes more sense. You should be townreading me after catching up.

[FourTrouble]

If you have strong townreads on 10 players, you have three scumspects. I feel you'd get a much better idea of if your perceptions would be correct if you pushed the stronger scumreads and see if they towned in response: pushing Victor tells me that you have the entire game figured out and I know you're not that bad/that blinded by arrogance to make that type of a push.

I don't have 10 townreads but I do have enough to justify a lynch: Iece, pine, ABR, Pere, far, you, and Gilgamesh. I have some doubts about Southern but they were also a strong townread earlier. For the record, I pushed Andrius most of the game, so it's not like I've pushed Victor all game. I pushed my strongest scumread first (before I solidified townreads on the above). So the only alternative to Victor is Who or Titus. Who probably isn't getting lynched though I'm willing to jump on that. And Titus is not much different than Victor (both haven't done shit).

[Nachomamma8]

Iecerint... is a much harder player for me to analyze because we have radically different playstyles/perceptions of things. I think a major marker of Iec-scum in my personal experience is that the ratio of doing stuff to the ratio of analysis tends to become much more impressive as scum when he's town: Iecerint town behavior early game tends to be putting all the pieces on the table in front of him, general assembly happens much more aggressively late game. His early entrance this game felt exactly like Zodiac Mafia's early entrance which I hate to say because I know there's not really a strong reason for it, but it dictates a lot of my earlygame read on him, so worth bringing up anyways. For me, the two moments that most poignantly defined Iec-town for me happened during his ABR and his Andrius exchanges: in his ABR exchange, he rails against ABR hard for not reading his votepost on Andy closely and not actually reading what he's saying despite "sheeping him": I have trouble believing Iecerint would care half as much as to specific reasons why someone is sheeping him, but it makes a lot of sense for town!Iecerint with suspicions on ABR to be picking up on that. I liked his exchange with Andrius because I thought that he chose a strange time to back off if scum/the way he went about explaining/attacking/pushing the read and then backing off again seemed very genuine to me.

[Nachomamma8]

If you have strong townreads on 10 players, you have three scumspects. I feel you'd get a much better idea of if your perceptions would be correct if you pushed the stronger scumreads and see if they towned in response: pushing Victor tells me that you have the entire game figured out and I know you're not that bad/that blinded by arrogance to make that type of a push.

I don't have 10 townreads but I do have enough to justify a lynch: Iece, pine, ABR, Pere, far, you, and Gilgamesh. I have some doubts about Southern but they were also a strong townread earlier. For the record, I pushed Andrius most of the game, so it's not like I've pushed Victor all game. I pushed my strongest scumread first (before I solidified townreads on the above). So the only alternative to Victor is Who or Titus. Who probably isn't getting lynched though I'm willing to jump on that. And Titus is not much different than Victor (both haven't done shit).

What do you think of my towncase on Andrius?
Why are my concerns with ABR incorrect?
Didn't Titus replace Konowa who was pretty town?

[Nachomamma8]

All Is Who:

I didn't like #188 because I have no idea how he formed the reads he did based on the posts he did except for that Pine was town and ABR was scum because Pine brought up a good point about ABR's conciliatory nature, but that was it.

He's voting an IC. His reaction to pine was weird. I haven't seen anything incredibly town from him.

Is the reason for voting Iecerint, which is additionally weak.

The major points of their scumcase on ABR are:
1) Buddying, which Pine talked about at the beginning of the game.
2) The threat post, which I talked about at the beginning of the game.
3) Not enough reasoning on his quick position changes? Which seem to be an ABR staple?
4) Not interacting with the hydra as a whole.

I find this a surprisingly bad case, considering how scummy in general ABR's been this game? It didn't seem like either of them built up to the ABR case at all before dropping that huge one, which is another red flag/gigantic question mark (feels like they were just trying to ram through the lynch for the lynch's sake). It's also a major problem that this is all the content that this hydra has provided to the game thus far.

[FourTrouble]

What do you think of my towncase on Andrius?
Why are my concerns with ABR incorrect?
Didn't Titus replace Konowa who was pretty town?

Re: towncase on Andrius - I addressed the stuff his passion earlier. Basically, I feel like players who take a break (at least in my case I've felt this way) tend to become more passionate on their first game back, regardless of alignment, so that's not really giving me town in his case (absent a break from mafia I'd agree with you). I agree that his early townread on Iece was towny but that's not enough to give me a solid townread on him. Your other points aren't very good. The first point assumes ABR is scum (which I disagree with) and also metas change (especially after breaks) so that's not very compelling. Your point about opposing the Victor lynch also isn't compelling, since Victor wasn't a viable lynch at that point (only me and ABR were on it), while the lynch on me was much more likely. What's the scum motive for supporting a counter-wagon (Victor) when you already have a good chance of getting a mislynch (on me)? I also don't agree that the frustration in 511 is specific to town; being misunderstood is just as frustrating for scum. Frustration is sometimes a town-tell (e.g. far's frustration with me felt town because it was frustration at her inability to read me) but not always; being misunderstood is just as frustrating for scum as town. Overall, I understand where you're coming from but disagree with you on most of your points.

Re: ABR -- I'm not sure exactly what your concerns are at this point. You made some sort of meta argument earlier in the game but I wasn't convinced by that. Even assuming your meta analysis is right (and I'll defer to you on that since I don't know him well enough), I don't agree that he's playing to the crowd. The "conditioning" comment also wasn't scummy - what's the motive there? It seemed like an impulsive seemingly-clever-but-actually-not response to being questioned for being nice, which is something I could see him doing as both alignments, but overall fits in with the style of play I see from him. For the most part, he looks like an impulsive townie trying to figure shit out like the rest of us (I don't see any deeper plan or calculation in his posts). I admit when he defended me I was a little paranoid that he was just trying to buddy me, but I'm town so there's not any reason to question his defense (it's obviously pro-town and there isn't any indication he "knows" I'm town).

[FourTrouble]

Fuck, I hit submit before typing up a response to the Titus question. To be brief, I wasn't townreading Konowa, and Titus hasn't done shit, so I'm null on that. I think far is town so at the least Konowa's only push seems pretty questionable.

[FourTrouble]

The major points of their scumcase on ABR are:
1) Buddying, which Pine talked about at the beginning of the game.
2) The threat post, which I talked about at the beginning of the game.
3) Not enough reasoning on his quick position changes? Which seem to be an ABR staple?
4) Not interacting with the hydra as a whole.

I find this a surprisingly bad case, considering how scummy in general ABR's been this game? It didn't seem like either of them built up to the ABR case at all before dropping that huge one, which is another red flag/gigantic question mark (feels like they were just trying to ram through the lynch for the lynch's sake). It's also a major problem that this is all the content that this hydra has provided to the game thus far.

This mirrors my exact thoughts about Who's case.

[Nachomamma8]

I don't like his entrance, or 186, or 190, or any of his posts. His comments feel like someone trying to post shit but not actually trying to figure shit out. Voting me is like going after the easiest target you can grab onto (besides folks who've posted nothing), especially with shitty reasoning like "underwhelming presence." I also don't like how he calls Nacho or Iece "still" town (admittedly this ain't slam-dunk evidence or anything like that but I think saying "still town" comes from a scum mindset even if town do it too; it's like unconsciously expressing that they won't always be town).

Voting you as an easy target early game is not a scumtell for me in any sense whatsoever: if it is early game and you fall behind in RVS, you get voted by a town playing well. That is how scum is caught early. I don't think "underwhelming presence" is a bad reason for voting early game, or in general, and I find it strange you criticized this reason early-game when it's the reason you're trying to lynch Victor now. "Still town" means that the read has a possibility for change in the future: your scum-side evaluation seems too twisted and complicated for me to give it any credit.

I'd much rather lynch Andrius or one of the folks opposing his lynch.

When and why did the Andrius scumread become strong enough for you to view defending him as suspect?

Also, Andrius isn't burnt out - he had a break, right? - so his level of investment isn't very telling.

More telling is who he votes for, when, and why. That stuff suggests he's scum.

Could you expound on this a bit? I know the vote on you earlier, but I need more than that.

[Nachomamma8]

Basically, I feel like players who take a break (at least in my case I've felt this way) tend to become more passionate on their first game back, regardless of alignment, so that's not really giving me town in his case (absent a break from mafia I'd agree with you).

In general, yes. If ABR had took a long break from mafia and then came back early game posting like a kitten, I'd agree that it was probably because of break and not because of alignment issues. In this game, Andy has been playing to pretty much his old town meta, which he had trouble emulating when he was active and at his peak. I don't think he learned to fake his town meta by taking a break.

Your point about opposing the Victor lynch also isn't compelling, since Victor wasn't a viable lynch at that point (only me and ABR were on it), while the lynch on me was much more likely. What's the scum motive for supporting a counter-wagon (Victor) when you already have a good chance of getting a mislynch (on me)?

This point is weaker than I thought it was thanks to a lack of context that I got recently, apologies.
There is scum motivation in allowing a lazy wagon near deadline to spring up, even if it derails a mislynch: if he is scum trying to mislynch town-you and deadline wagon pops up on a townie, he can continue pushing you tomorrow and will very likely be able to get you mislynched tomorrow after you've burned towncred a bit more by leading a deadline counterwagon on a townie. Pulling the "no, we're not lynching today, this is lazy as hell" card is still a ballsy move in protecting a scumbuddy thanks to risk/reward (he probably wasn't gonna get lynched anyways/if he continues playing like that, won't survive very long). Frustration spurned from "if you think I'm not reading things right, you're a bad reader" is generally town frustration since it doesn't make sense to get frustrated at that sort of thing when scum.

[Nachomamma8]

I think you're probably right about ABR, though.

Vote: All is Who

[Nachomamma8]

I'm gonna take a break from mafia for an hour or so, but if when I come back you could give me a more clearer picture of why you find Andy as scummy as you do and maybe get that vote off Victor and onto All is Who, I'd be pretty grateful.

In the meantime...

Spoiler: smut

As he held her body as close to his as he could possibly manage, his treacherous mind couldn't help but taunt him by bringing the sounds of her ticking clock into the forefront of his mind, the tick and tock of every second passing a toxin to his mind and his heart. Time apart from her was pain, and with every moment that passed, he knew that he was closer to feeling that pain yet again. He silently reprimanded himself for getting lost in a future that wasn't yet there: he would deal with the separation when it happened. For now, the only thing he cared about was her and

Brown Sugar

playing in the background.

[FourTrouble]

Nacho, I just wrote out an extensive post answering your questions and explaining my read on Andrius but my internet fucked up and deleted it, so... I'm not typing all of that up again right now so this is gonna be brief. I agree that voting easy targets isn't always a scum-tell; good reasons to vote someone are good reasons, regardless how easy the target is. My point earlier was that Andrius wasn't engaged with the game, he was just posting shit to "look" engaged. Going after easy targets is what folks do when they're not struggling to sort alignments on a deeper level; you're just finding the easiest person to fake a vote on. 197 is where I started solidifying that read; Andrius continues voting me but this time it's for voting him... plus he also acknowledges I'm V/LA. At this point, he doesn't seem engaged with the game; his reason to vote me sucks and he's not looking at anyone else. Then notice how he "suspects" ABR, but keeps his vote on me. He just adds fire to the mounting suspicion on ABR but doesn't engage that read. He just puts it out there as support for a potential wagon. Then he "suspects" Pere, but of course keeps his vote on me. I'm V/LA for more than a week, but his vote still stays on me the entire time. The gamestate changes dramatically but there's no engagement. He's the only one voting me and when he suspects anyone, it's easy targets like ABR and Pere. Also his reason for suspecting Pere: Pere says he doesn't have any reads. No one else comments on that (as far as I remember) and for good reason. I think any townie can relate to that feeling so why is that suspect? It's not. But it's certainly an easy place to cast suspicion. There isn't any depth or independence of thought, which is what I expect from townies. I get back from vacation and he's still voting me. His townreads are anyone who suspects the same people as him, and his scumreads involve anyone voting him (he even casts suspicion far's, which is pretty bad). All of this just tells me exactly what I initially suspected (yes this might be confirmation bias but seriously think about it and tell me if I'm wrong): he's not engaged with sorting alignments, he's just going after easy stuff to grab onto (not just easy targets but easy points to cast suspicion onto), and he hasn't moved his vote even once.

[Nachomamma8]

197 is where I started solidifying that read; Andrius continues voting me but this time it's for voting him... plus he also acknowledges I'm V/LA. At this point, he doesn't seem engaged with the game; his reason to vote me sucks and he's not looking at anyone else.

You were a suspect of his. This is a valid suspicion because farside (another townread of yours) also suspected him at that point in time. When you return, all you say is that his posts suck and the still tell (which isn't really a slam dunk awesome tel), then leave again. Why should he have unvoted at this point?

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Who

This might change. I plan on rereading the game tomorrow and hopefully getting a fresh set of reads so I might come back with a completely different perspective.

[Nachomamma8]

Then notice how he "suspects" ABR, but keeps his vote on me. He just adds fire to the mounting suspicion on ABR but doesn't engage that read. He just puts it out there as support for a potential wagon. Then he "suspects" Pere, but of course keeps his vote on me.

You have both of these players as town, correct? Why is it scummy for Andrius not to vote these players?
I don't think Andrius not wandering far from who he voted originally is scummy: gamestate changed dramatically yes, but I don't think anything too radical has happened until recently where you somehow shouldn't be a suspect anymore.

[Nachomamma8]

Also his reason for suspecting Pere: Pere says he doesn't have any reads. No one else comments on that (as far as I remember) and for good reason. I think any townie can relate to that feeling so why is that suspect? It's not.

He explains why past experience makes it a special kind of tell for him: you didn't buy that?

[Nachomamma8]

There isn't any depth or independence of thought, which is what I expect from townies.

What about his Iec read?

[Nachomamma8]

Real break now: thank you for the updated Andrius case, helps me see things a bit better.

[FourTrouble]

I agree with you that his Iece read was towny. I don't think the "no reads" thing is a tell, and I think justifying it as one because you saw scum do it once is really shallow. But you're right that he might genuinely believe that. I haven't read that other game and I haven't seen how Andrius plays, so maybe he legitimately thinks that's scummy.