Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Belisarius]

By the way, you're still dodging the question about why you need me and T-Bone to crossvote before you can scumhunt.

[Scripten]

Oh.

I guess you are scum.

If I'd voted, sure. But what happens when

you

vote first, with practically zero discussion during lylo: I'd post "not scum" right afterwards and remove your ability to push a lynch on me if I didn't stick to the plan from previous Days. T-Bone would then

know

you're scum, and the cross-vote situation puts you squarely in the line of fire if I look over your ISO more closely, like I just did, and noticed all of the nervous energy evinced by the rapid-fire sentence fragments you used early on before you became confident that you were definitely going to win.

So that was a reaction test?

Laughable backpedaling going on here.

I could notice that that nervous energy dissipated when it became clear that Math was going to be lynched D2 instead of Equinox, who would have been an equally valid move from a TTT perspective, which put the game on a trajectory that led clearly to you being in lylo.

When was Equinox viable as a lynch in D2?

I could revisit that you were

so

confident that you weren't going to get NK'd last night. I

sure as hell

noticed that you waltzed into lylo acting like you're actually conftown, and anyone with even a basic understanding of marketing knows the principle of brainwashing people into believing something just by repeating it often enough.

Oh, so it

is

scummy now that it's convenient for you to use? Weird how that happens.

T-Bone, conversely, didn't vote right at the beginning, and scum who thought they'd already lost the way T-Bone does would have nothing to lose. Why didn't he vote me? Because he's not sure he's right. He would be sure of both of our alignments if he were scum. From a scum T-Bone perspective, a Beli vote would be one last fuck you to town, and I know if I walk into lylo certain of losing, I'm going to face Jack Ketch with a defiant snarl and an upraised middle finger. I'd want to go down like Khan, quoting Melville.

So now that you're caught, you're trying to buddy T-Bone?

Your logic is pretty bad, by the way. Even newbie scum would know that being first to vote in LyLo would absolutely out them in this situation. Your reasons for switching to T-Bone from me are pretty simple. You know I've caught you and you need to 180 on him to get him to vote with you.

Considering you were ready to go right out of the gate on T-Bone but now suddenly want him to vote with you is a little blatant, don't you think?

You sure you want me to vote right now?

Doesn't really matter much to me where your vote is, now. You still need town to vote with you regardless of whether you're voting me or T-Bone.

By the way, you're still dodging the question about why you need me and T-Bone to crossvote before you can scumhunt.

I haven't started scumhunting yet? From the looks of things, I've caught scum.

[T-Bone]

I don't know how I feel about this exchange. Mostly because I was expecting Beli to go all in and 1v1 me.

I have multiple reasons as to why I don't like Beli, for the most part Script hasn't pinged me, and I had written him off to be honest (also you know, the 1v1 I thought was coming from Beli).

What did you both think of F-16 yesterday?

[T-Bone]

If I was scum, don't you think optimum solution would be to go along with you and vote T-Bone?

If I'd voted, sure. But what happens when

you

vote first, with practically zero discussion during lylo: I'd post "not scum" right afterwards and remove your ability to push a lynch on me if I didn't stick to the plan from previous Days. T-Bone would then

know

you're scum, and the cross-vote situation puts you squarely in the line of fire if I look over your ISO more closely, like I just did, and noticed all of the nervous energy evinced by the rapid-fire sentence fragments you used early on before you became confident that you were definitely going to win. I could notice that that nervous energy dissipated when it became clear that Math was going to be lynched D2 instead of Equinox, who would have been an equally valid move from a TTT perspective, which put the game on a trajectory that led clearly to you being in lylo. I could revisit that you were

so

confident that you weren't going to get NK'd last night. I

sure as hell

noticed that you waltzed into lylo acting like you're actually conftown, and anyone with even a basic understanding of marketing knows the principle of brainwashing people into believing something just by repeating it often enough.

Thanks to Math (and maybe me), we were never on a trajectory to lynch Equinox.

I thought I had the game solved and it was up to Scripten. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

The argument that "only scum" vote first in LyLo is a stupid one, because someone HAS to vote first eventually. I briefly considered playing that game where I would vote Beli then immediately unvote, but that was probably just dumb. But so is your point on that. If I'm scum (from your PoV) Beli voting first and you going "not scum lol" wouldn't do anything to solve the game, wouldn't do anything to prove he's scum.

[T-Bone]

I also completely failed at quoting relevant quotes in my string of posts. I'm referring to #426 in the 2nd part.

[Scripten]

The argument that "only scum" vote first in LyLo is a stupid one, because someone HAS to vote first eventually. I briefly considered playing that game where I would vote Beli then immediately unvote, but that was probably just dumb. But so is your point on that. If I'm scum (from your PoV) Beli voting first and you going "not scum lol" wouldn't do anything to solve the game, wouldn't do anything to prove he's scum.

You're right about most situations, though voting right out the gate is anti-town in most cases. That said, in this situation, it should be obvious that you would have been scumread were you to vote right out the gate, so him clearing you for that simple of a reason is a blatant attempt to try to buddy you.

[Scripten]

What did you both think of F-16 yesterday?

I'm not sure what there is to think of his play. He sorta just showed up and was NK'd, I guess? I don't have any meta experience with him, so I don't know how his LyLo play would be like and if that would contribute to the NK choice.

[T-Bone]

Of course we can go back and forth on this all day, knowing that voting first would condemn me right out the gate, I would not do it (as I did) so as to not condemn myself. This is a silly game to try and gauge.

[T-Bone]

What did you both think of F-16 yesterday?

I'm not sure what there is to think of his play. He sorta just showed up and was NK'd, I guess? I don't have any meta experience with him, so I don't know how his LyLo play would be like and if that would contribute to the NK choice.

I mean what did you think about his content? (there were what, 2 posts?)

[T-Bone]

Also I've have the pleasure to sit in the position of scum being townread at 3p LyLo before and have done like you did, I said something to the effect of "sigh, you guys should cross vote and I'll try to figure it out". So I get where Beli is coming from, where were you coming from?

[Scripten]

A couple of options: a) I hammer Kaboose and we either win or the game goes to 3P LYLO. I'm not very optimistic on us winning considering Kaboose's attitude reads as town as is his willingness to allow himself to be lynched. b) We scumhunt as normal and try and figure out who the remaining scum is. I believe choice (a) is more statistically optimal though and perhaps even preferable.

I will not one thing though - It is actually suboptimal for us to discuss our reads if the day ends up being a lynch on Kaboose for Tic Tac Toe purposes. That only provides scum with information on who to nightkill. It is somewhat similar to the day of a no lynch before MYLO. Explaining our reads help scum make better choices tonight. What you guys did earlier with the list of reads from towniest to scummiest was something I thought wasn't helpful but what's done is done.

This is the only post of his that has any real content going on. I stripped out everything that isn't relevant from it, and what I'm left with is the following:
- He figured correctly that Kaboose was town, but that lynching him was statistically the most logical thing to do.
- He thought that us doing reads lists was suboptimal. I'm not sure what to think of that, to be honest. I thought that my reads were fairly evident anyway, but I can sort of see the logic behind it.

Also I've have the pleasure to sit in the position of scum being townread at 3p LyLo before and have done like you did, I said something to the effect of "sigh, you guys should cross vote and I'll try to figure it out". So I get where Beli is coming from, where were you coming from?

Pretty much what I said in (423). I didn't like the way he came in with his "Let's quicklynch T-Bone, Scripten buddy!" I was also really bugged by the following trajectory:

Do you think Scripten assuming he'll be alive on the last day was at all a slip of some type?

No. I'm assuming that I'll be alive on the last day as well, it's statistically pretty likely.

It'll definitely be either Scripten or me, and I think it's more likely for Scripten to eat the NK due to the fact that more people want to lynch me than him, but that could easily be a perspective problem.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

Ready to vote T-Bone and win this any ol' time.

I caught what he was setting up, basically. His (424) was exactly where I expected him to turn as scum when I didn't automatically go along with him.

[Belisarius]

Oh.

I guess you are scum.

And you're still dodging the question.

So that was a reaction test?

No. I was pretty sure until you asked me and T-Bone to crossvote.

When was Equinox viable as a lynch in D2?

All of it. I wanted to lynch Mathdino to get vet and T-Bone and spare Equinox, so I was happy to go along with Math's volunteering to get lynched, but lynching Equinox would have been a better move for anyone who wanted to get

you

and spare Mathdino.

Oh, so it

is

scummy now that it's convenient for you to use? Weird how that happens.

That's not what I said. I thought it wasn't relevant

then

...but then you asked me to crossvote. That made me re-evaluate my position. Townies who want to win need to be willing to re-evaluate their reads.

By the way, good job glossing over this without looking like you were glossing over it by quoting two sentences and only respondng to one:

I

sure as hell

noticed that you waltzed into lylo acting like you're actually conftown, and anyone with even a basic understanding of marketing knows the principle of brainwashing people into believing something just by repeating it often enough.

So now that you're caught, you're trying to buddy T-Bone?

Now that

you're

caught, I'm trying to get you lynched. I need T-Bone's vote to do that.

How does being alarmed at non-conftown requesting a crossvote in lylo make me "caught?" That's pretty laughable.

Your logic is pretty bad, by the way. Even newbie scum would know that being first to vote in LyLo would absolutely out them in this situation. Your reasons for switching to T-Bone from me are pretty simple. You know I've caught you and you need to 180 on him to get him to vote with you.

Your

logic is pretty bad. The gamestate at the time would have cost T-Bone

nothing

to throw out a vote as scum. As town, though, voting wrong would make him culpable for the loss instead of just being unfortunate.

The gamestate at the time I switched from T-Bone to you had us on the same side. You've been buddying me all goddamn game, you attacked Kaboose in your #256 for attacking me, and you reached out to me for a T-Bone lynch as early as #23. The only way I would have seen you voting me at the start of this Day is if T-Bone voted first and you were scum. Here's where Occam's Razor applies: You're attacking

me

because you thought you had me in your back pocket and now you're pissed that your surefire win has gone away.

Considering you were ready to go right out of the gate on T-Bone but now suddenly want him to vote with you is a little blatant, don't you think?

It's pretty surprising, yeah, but that's what happens when you piss away a townread by being scummy as fuck.

Doesn't really matter much to me where your vote is, now. You still need town to vote with you regardless of whether you're voting me or T-Bone.

That's a tautology. No wagon can go to lynch without town on it at any phase of Mafia, or the game would be over. Words, words, words.

I haven't started scumhunting yet? From the looks of things, I've caught scum.

See an optometrist immediately. You need glasses. Or possibly a seeing-eye dog.

[Belisarius]

What did you both think of F-16 yesterday?

He was right about those read lists just being a roadmap for scum on who to NK. I actually considered refusing to do it, but the damage was done and I'd already outed my reads before it was called for anyways.

Thanks to Math (and maybe me), we were never on a trajectory to lynch Equinox.

Desaccord. I went with it because I wanted to kill you and vett. If vett had been less scummy, I would have considered and Equinox lynch. Yes, I was townreading her, but I was also townreading Math.

[Belisarius]

That said, in this situation, it should be obvious that you would have been scumread

He was

already

being scumread.

[Scripten]

No. I was pretty sure until you asked me and T-Bone to crossvote.

So what

was

the point of that first post of the day?

All of it. I wanted to lynch Mathdino to get vet and T-Bone and spare Equinox, so I was happy to go along with Math's volunteering to get lynched, but lynching Equinox would have been a better move for anyone who wanted to get

you

and spare Mathdino.

You wanted to lynch Mathdino to get Vettrock and T-Bone? How's that work, exactly?

This part of your post makes no sense. I said that Equinox wasn't a viable lynch and you respond by saying it was because it would have been a better move to get me. How does that make it viable?

That's not what I said. I thought it wasn't relevant

then

...but then you asked me to crossvote. That made me re-evaluate my position. Townies who want to win need to be willing to re-evaluate their reads.

So it's not scummy until you need to use it to bullshit up a case as quickly as possible. Nice.

By the way, good job glossing over this without looking like you were glossing over it by quoting two sentences and only respondng to one:

I

sure as hell

noticed that you waltzed into lylo acting like you're actually conftown, and anyone with even a basic understanding of marketing knows the principle of brainwashing people into believing something just by repeating it often enough.

Because the other part of that quote is fluffy, empty BS, perhaps? Are you next going to accuse me of hiding blipverts in my text?

Now that

you're

caught, I'm trying to get you lynched. I need T-Bone's vote to do that.

Semantics.

Your

logic is pretty bad. The gamestate at the time would have cost T-Bone

nothing

to throw out a vote as scum. As town, though, voting wrong would make him culpable for the loss instead of just being unfortunate.

Cost him nothing but the game, you mean. You've flipped your opinion on him 180 because, as you stated in (424), he didn't vote immediately out of the gate. He was already being scumread, as you said, so that reasoning is complete bunk. You say that he had nothing to lose, but I say he could have had something to gain. That said, it's irrelevant. What's important is your play so far.

The gamestate at the time I switched from T-Bone to you had us on the same side. You've been buddying me all goddamn game, you attacked Kaboose in your #256 for attacking me, and you reached out to me for a T-Bone lynch as early as #23. The only way I would have seen you voting me at the start of this Day is if T-Bone voted first and you were scum. Here's where Occam's Razor applies: You're attacking

me

because you thought you had me in your back pocket and now you're pissed that your surefire win has gone away.

Ah, that's why you killed the F-16 slot instead of me. You thought that if you went into LyLo with a replacement, they'd catch onto you. Yes, I scumread Kaboose for his post. It reeked of self-preservation rather than actual scumhunting. He found your statement scummy despite the fact that it put him, a "scumread" of yours, in the line of fire instead of Equinox, a "townread" of yours.

Kaboose did have an interesting observation in (254) that I had overlooked until recently. You keep saying that lynching Mathdino puts T-Bone in the line of fire. You're still saying it. Explain to me how, other than scum trying to maintain consistency, that works?

Doesn't really matter much to me where your vote is, now. You still need town to vote with you regardless of whether you're voting me or T-Bone.

That's a tautology. No wagon can go to lynch without town on it at any phase of Mafia, or the game would be over. Words, words, words.

Did you forget the empty question that I was replying to already? Usually I cut the fluff out of posts I'm replying to, but this is a special kind of hypocrisy.

[T-Bone]

Desaccord. I went with it because I wanted to kill you and vett. If vett had been less scummy, I would have considered and Equinox lynch. Yes, I was townreading her, but I was also townreading Math.

This is not what happened at all. for whatever reason we (royal we) decided Equinox wasn't a viable lynch, for some reason, mostly because that's the way Math wanted it. If you were considering the Equinox lynch, you certainly didn't do much to get that discussion going.

[Belisarius]

No. I was pretty sure until you asked me and T-Bone to crossvote.

So what

was

the point of that first post of the day?

Announcing how sure I was, at that time, that T-Bone was the last scum -- based primarily on RC's maneuvering to make T-Bone untouchable unless we wanted to risk scum winning via TTT.

You wanted to lynch Mathdino to get Vettrock and T-Bone? How's that work, exactly?

Lynch mathdino and even if vett wasn't NK'd, we'd have lynched him for the TTT win. As of D2 T-Bone was untouchable because it wouldn't have set up the board for a TTT win, but with a T on Mathdino's square, T-Bone would be a viable lynch again unless we were blocking.

This part of your post makes no sense. I said that Equinox wasn't a viable lynch and you respond by saying it was because it would have been a better move to get me. How does that make it viable?

I don't understand how you're not getting this. For what reason would you say an Equinox lynch was

not

viable? Because Mathdino volunteered? We could have overruled him.

So it's not scummy until you need to use it to bullshit up a case as quickly as possible. Nice.

Pot to kettle, come in kettle.

By the way, good job glossing over this without looking like you were glossing over it by quoting two sentences and only respondng to one:

I

sure as hell

noticed that you waltzed into lylo acting like you're actually conftown, and anyone with even a basic understanding of marketing knows the principle of brainwashing people into believing something just by repeating it often enough.

Because the other part of that quote is fluffy, empty BS, perhaps? Are you next going to accuse me of hiding blipverts in my text?

Fluffy my ass. It's proven that that kind of brainwashing works. Town doesn't want to brainwash anyone in lylo. Scum does.

You've flipped your opinion on him 180 because, as you stated in (424), he didn't vote immediately out of the gate.

No, I flipped my opinion on him 180 because

you

did something scummy as fuck and it gave me a stronger scumread than my earlier hypothesis about RC trying to protect T-Bone.

Pedit: @ T-Bone Math didn't have to get what he wanted, and no, I was

not

considering an Equinox lynch because I wanted vett dead.

[Scripten]

Announcing how sure I was, at that time, that T-Bone was the last scum -- based primarily on RC's maneuvering to make T-Bone untouchable unless we wanted to risk scum winning via TTT.

Useful indeed.

Lynch mathdino and even if vett wasn't NK'd, we'd have lynched him for the TTT win. As of D2 T-Bone was untouchable because it wouldn't have set up the board for a TTT win, but with a T on Mathdino's square, T-Bone would be a viable lynch again unless we were blocking.

Yeah, but with an Equinox lynch, you seem to forget that it would have killed both of us off. No matter what, T-Bone would have been in the same position come LyLo. You've spent all game trying to paint T-bone as scum and grooming me to vote him alongside you, and now you're trying to get me lynched because I didn't follow your script and T-Bone is suddenly not as viable as you'd hoped.

I don't understand how you're not getting this. For what reason would you say an Equinox lynch was

not

viable? Because Mathdino volunteered? We could have overruled him.

Nobody was going to vote Equinox that day. A cursory examination of the game state would reveal that. This is an empty argument and I'm not following it up.

Fluffy my ass. It's proven that that kind of brainwashing works. Town doesn't want to brainwash anyone in lylo. Scum does.

Yes, because I've been exceptionally screaming how town I am all game. Please.

[Belisarius]

Nobody was going to vote Equinox that day.

Yeah, look, buddy, I've already shown you that making assertions instead of showing reasons isn't going to cut it with me. The fact that you keep doing it just seals the deal. I'm ready to take the risk.

VOTE: Scripten

[Scripten]

Nobody was going to vote Equinox that day.

Yeah, look, buddy, I've already shown you that making assertions instead of showing reasons isn't going to cut it with me. The fact that you keep doing it just seals the deal. I'm ready to take the risk.

VOTE: Scripten

I guess we'll find out soon if T-Bone is scum or not. If he is, we've pretty much already lost. If you are, my vote isn't going to lose us the game.

Enjoy.

VOTE: Belisarius

[Empking]

My fifth vote count of 2015

Scripten (1) - Belisarius
Belisarius (1) - Scripten

Not Voting: T-Bone
Three votes to lynch.
(expired on 2015-01-14 11:57:11)

[T-Bone]

Vote: Belisarius

Fuck it. Gonna go with my gut.

[Scripten]

YES! Good game, town.

And good play, scumteam. You almost got me, Beli.

[T-Bone]

Phew, what a relief.

[Belisarius]

Now I don't know which of you is trolling.