Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Belisarius]

inb4 "that can be arranged"

I doubt it, since the game will be over.

As for the read on Equinox: There's only one reason I ever get NK'd given how often I fuck up LyLo, and that's because I love being scum to the point where I think like scum

regardless of my alignment

. There is no townBeli. I'm scum even when my role PM says town. That means I can get into scum's headspace, and when I put myself into the headspace of a hypothetical scumEquinox, I start screaming blue murder because this is not the way to win a scumgame.

When you're scum, if you're actually playing to win and not just phoning it in because you don't like your wincon, you think about things like how everything you say is going to be perceived -- the first basic fact of being scum is that if you flip, the whole goddamn town is going to be going over every word you wrote with a fine-toothed comb. Yes, I can see lurking because "scum don't lurk lest they be lynched for lurkers," but there's going to be some sort of effort to try to guide the town to that conclusion. This is absent in Equinox's ISO, and although I've not read a

lot

of her meta, I don't see her as the sort to phone it in because she doesn't like her role PM. If she was trying to play sitemeta, there'd be some sort of nudge to get us to think the way she wants us to think.

The same applies for the "coaching" tell. Yes, you can catch scum by looking for coaching, but as scum, I'd make damned sure that if I fucked up and posted some coaching, I'd follow up with loads of bullshit in the hopes of making people miss out on it through sheer volume of posts. When you've got a long enough ISO, people with short attention spans are going to skim. Nobody is going to skim Equinox's ISO.

Lastly, strategic lurking is just that: strategic. This means it'll be discarded once the risk/benefit analysis swings towards the risk axis. I could see maintaining a stratlurk in a large or even a mini, depending on setup, but this is a micro, on D2, with one scum left. The last scum in this game is panicking. I see no panic.

Yes, individually, all of these points are WIFOM, but the whole damned game of Mafia is WIFOM and when you combine them, they paint a sharper picture that points so far away from scumEquinox that it will take the light from scumEquinox sixteen thousand years to reach it.

Granted, before you asked the question about why I was townreading Equinox, the answer was "gut," but now that I've peered deeper into the belly of the beast, I'm much more satisfied with my read, so thanks for that.

[Belisarius]

inb4 "confbias"

[Mathdino]

confbias

(haven't even read your post)

[Mathdino]

so you're saying equinox is either sucking at scum this game by pointing directly to his partner

or he's lurky town

this makes me more confident in both your slots, cool

lynch t-bone if we get to lylo

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

[Equinox]

I don't understand the hard defending of Equinox. He's had all of two posts, one of which can very much be interpreted as coaching the scumbuddy. Please explain.

Of course I would be obviously town after 2 posts. I'm town; therefore, obvtown. See how that works? ;)

I'll catch up over the course of the evening. Since you guys didn't get the memo, though, I'll be on V/LA from Wednesday, December 24, to Sunday, December 28. I'll have access via mobile, so I'll check in whenever I have time.

[Mathdino]

If everyone is fine with Mathdino today, assume a NK on Vettrock, and then blocking with me, I'll give intent to hammer to further the town's desired course of action.

I'm still looking at some people though, more so the ones who aren't going to come under any form of lynch or NK because of this plan of action.

This path gives us T-Bone, Belisarius, and Scripten on the final day.

Personally, I don't like Belisarius.

i like this

Anyone else not liking Belisarius?

XTX
XMX
XXT

Doesn't put us in any worse position, and we can still end with a 3 person lylo like we are now.

I don't like Belisarius at all.

i don't like this, kaboose should know better

I think either Belisaruis or Tbone is scum. I know I am town, and I am getting town reads from mathdino. My optimal lynch would be Equinox, only because that sets up the Belisarius lynch. If we have to go my way, I prefer Mathdino over me as I see Equinox as town. I think most likely this us going to head into 3p Lylo where Tbone us the scum.

VOTE: Equinox

To be clear I think Equinox is town, but the path to the scum leads through him.

Also, I am considering the T-bone lynch as well. If we lynch T-bone, scum will Nk one of the four sides, whichever one does not have scum opposite. So if the kill me, we have to lynch Kaboose, and we are in 3p LyLo. The disadvantage here is if T-bone is not scum, we are headed to 3p lylo with the two town that scum chooses, whereas with either mathdino, myself, Equinox or scripten, we have the potential to kill one of the scum out of the possible town insread of the squares scum cooses for us after a T-bone.

i really don't like this

i want kaboose to vote me and explain the belisarius lead. keep in mind that for v/k, they are also at l-1, technically

[Mathdino]

VOTE: mathdino

i claim cop with a guilty on myself

VOTE: pine

[Mathdino]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine.

The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

lol at standard scumtell

compared to scripten's standard towntell

[Belisarius]

so you're saying equinox is either sucking at scum this game by pointing directly to his partner

or he's lurky town

this makes me more confident in both your slots, cool

lynch t-bone if we get to lylo

Equinox isn't sucking at scum. She's got enough experience to play more proscum than this even if she's slumping harder than I was in Cephrir's FE:A game (which I consider to be my shittest towngame of all time)

[T-Bone]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

After screaming yesterday that you would call for your own lynch for the good of the town.

I am legitimately surprised RC flipped scum, but it only makes everything Math has done this game make more sense. He was so upset I quickhammered his buddy and faked so much townrage over it. Then he gave all these scenarios where he would advocate his own lynch for the good of the town. He needs to go, because he's the last scum.

Vote: Mathdino

[Equinox]

Lastly, strategic lurking is just that: strategic. This means it'll be discarded once the risk/benefit analysis swings towards the risk axis. I could see maintaining a stratlurk in a large or even a mini, depending on setup, but this is a micro, on D2, with one scum left. The last scum in this game is panicking. I see no panic.

Talk about this a bit more. I've had zero site activity since Day 2 opened apart from this past hour; how could you say that you "see no panic" if there's no evidence of my ever being here?

[vettrock]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine.

The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

lol at standard scumtell

compared to scripten's standard towntell

I don't get the scumtell here. That I said NK instead of lynch?

[vettrock]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

Why do you keep voting Pine? What does that supposed to mean?

[Belisarius]

Lastly, strategic lurking is just that: strategic. This means it'll be discarded once the risk/benefit analysis swings towards the risk axis. I could see maintaining a stratlurk in a large or even a mini, depending on setup, but this is a micro, on D2, with one scum left. The last scum in this game is panicking. I see no panic.

Talk about this a bit more. I've had zero site activity since Day 2 opened apart from this past hour; how could you say that you "see no panic" if there's no evidence of my ever being here?

You're assuming, incorrectly, that I noticed that.

[Belisarius]

Also, fun fact: the joke about flavoured condoms being intended for children was purely serendipitous; I was involved in multiple conversations at the same time and my IRL conversation about vaping spilled over into this game and I was too drunk to notice. Still, it was damned funny so awesome.

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

After screaming yesterday that you would call for your own lynch for the good of the town.

I am legitimately surprised RC flipped scum, but it only makes everything Math has done this game make more sense. He was so upset I quickhammered his buddy and faked so much townrage over it. Then he gave all these scenarios where he would advocate his own lynch for the good of the town. He needs to go, because he's the last scum.

Vote: Mathdino

bro

i went offline for the entirety of the time i was sleeping while i was self voting

i HAVE been screaming that i'd call for my own lynch

I AM STILL calling for my own lynch

you understand that if kaboose and vettrock flip town you're gonna be lynched as a result of this shit

the only reason i unvoted there was to give me, kaboose, and vettrock time to talk about the remaining 4 people

so get your vote off me so loltastic players like you don't quickhammer me

so we can work together before i self hammer

also i want your vote off me because i want one of kaboose's and vettrock's votes on me

so seriously, get it off

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

Why do you keep voting Pine? What does that supposed to mean?

it means all of literally nothing

i don't want my vote on anyone in the game except myself

so i'm putting it on pine just cuz

why, are you reading something

also t-bone's "mathdino is scum regardless of RC's flip" is imbecilic

[Equinox]

FYI, if Empking doesn't count votes on nonexistent players, then your vote may still be on yourself, Mathdino.

Reading this game was an adventure. I was thinking about RedCoyote's proposal; Belisarius is right that RedCoyote must have known about the consequences of trying to lynch Pine, doubly so because RedCoyote is the kind of scum player to play the long game. He might have expected to be lynched when he drew scum (long story short, I've got a thirst for lynching RedCoyote-scum), so he did what he could to protect his partner. Putting it into squares pointed at T-Bone because we would not have risked lynching T-Bone even if RedCoyote flipped scum. There's also the other dead horse of T-Bone quick-hammering a town read that's been beaten enough.

As for reads, {Mathdino, Belisarius, Kaboose} are my strongest town reads, in that order. I'd have to be on mushrooms to not see Mathdino as town. Belisarius pointed out a flaw in RedCoyote's plan in post 72 that I highly doubt he would have given the direction RedCoyote was going; if you read through RedCoyote's posts, they have a peculiar quality of boxing the reader into a specific mindset, and I doubt that 1) RedCoyote and partner did not discuss what to say beforehand and 2) RedCoyote's partner would have undermined what RedCoyote was trying to do, even as a "good cop, bad cop" tactic.

I liked that Kaboose caught that RedCoyote was too interested in talking about confirming scum rather than winning in post 89. I agree that his post afterward overjustified his RedCoyote vote, but I have enough good feelings about that linked post and Kaboose is in the line of fire anyway, so I care that much less. I agree enough with Mathdino's reasons for Scripten being town that I'd put Scripten down as a town read, as well; it's just that I didn't get as strong pings from Scripten as I did from the linked Belisarius and Kaboose posts.

Kind of meh about vettrock. To be quite honest, though, my eyes started glazing over about halfway through the thread, so I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to picking apart vettrock's posts. I may do so tomorrow if I have some dead time between traveling, but, as with Kaboose above, if he's in the line of fire anyway, I tend toward not expending a whole lot of energy there.

Mainly because I want to lynch the ever-loving daylights out of T-Bone.

Those are my reads. I've been staring at mafiascum.net for 6 hours straight with 4 of those on this game, so my brain is fried and I'm fine with never seeing another tic-tac-toe board again.

[Equinox]

To clarify about Kaboose's post 89: Thinking about RedCoyote's posts in that way shows that Kaboose is coming from a town mindset, not a scum mindset. The default scum mindset is worrying about scum confirmations, whereas the default town mindset is catching all the scum. A scum buddy, coming from a thought pattern of "This configuration would confirm X and Y," would not have caught the flaw that Kaboose did unless coached into doing so, and I do not think RedCoyote would have asked his partner to do that; see above explanation for Belisarius being town.

[Mathdino]

Cool beans, lynch T-Bone if we get to LyLo, but don't lynch him yet because vettrock.

Still want vettrock and Kaboose's reads.

[Mathdino]

can someone get their vote off me please

i want someone else to be voting me

[Kaboose]

I still don't like Belisarius and it mostly has to do with his first two posts of D2 both being wrong and misleading. He acts like he should be in LyLo more than other people and it rubs me the wrong way.

Mathdino, Equinox are town.

[Mathdino]

Interesting, go on. Would be interested in a case.

Also, read on T-Bone?

[Empking]

The busiest vote count of Day Two so far

Mathdino (3) - Belisarius, Scripten, T-Bone
Equinox (1) - vettrock

Note Voting: Equinox, Kaboose, Mathdino
Four votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-30 04:54:50)